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May 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW


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A little early but I'm trying to stay positive. Let's get some nice spring variety this May!!!

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Hi guys, I hope everyone is doing well. Wanted to share with you all my first published paper, out this month in AMS Journal of Climate. I looked at 30 years of lightning data for the western US and a

Not really relevant-- but looks like I'm going to have to stick around on this part of the board for a while....I officially committed to University of Oregon as a BA major and psych minor

It was a very pretty afternoon in the eastern Columbia Gorge. First drive out there in a few months.    

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Cool name dude, what’s the story behind it?

 

Always been a fan of Tiger. His personal issues in the late 2000s still make me laugh and yet I genuinely feel bad for the guy for going through it. Him winning the Masters last year was one of my favorite sports moments ever.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Chilly 35 degree morning to start May. Was a gorgeous evening last night. Chilliest start t o May I have had up here was May 2013, with a low of 25 on the 1st.

 

94883342_702213377964_273141647946232627

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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39 here this morning...quite a bit of mid 30s this morning with a freeze in Olympia. Chilliest May morning here since 2013 as well.

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-16

Monthly rainfall-0.82”

Cold season rainfall-32.91”

Snowfall-15.5”

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Finished April with a +2.7 departure. Had negative departures the first 4 days but never hit negative again the rest of the month. Had 1.28" of rain which is 33.2% of normal. A total of 11 clear days, 13 partly cloudy days and 6 cloudy days.

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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Finished April with a +2.7 departure. Had negative departures the first 4 days but never hit negative again the rest of the month. Had 1.28" of rain which is 33.2% of normal. A total of 11 clear days, 13 partly cloudy days and 6 cloudy days.

You live at the Troutdale airport?

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You live at the Troutdale airport?

I live nearby, closest location to my house.

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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Five seals enjoying the boat free waters of the Sound this morning :)

 

Currently 49*

Fishing going to be really good once they open it back up for you guys.

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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Ended April with a 64/41 spread here. A little over a degree above average. Lows were slightly on the chilly side with highs on the warm side. Recorded 1.20”’of rain which is well less than half of normal. Saw eight days where the highs exceeded 70, and 14 mornings with lows in the 30s, including frost on 4 mornings.

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I've got some shocking news. Models are trending significantly drier for this weekend, for the Portland area and points south.

 

 

And north of Portland too.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Ended April with a 64/41 spread here. A little over a degree above average. Lows were slightly on the chilly side with highs on the warm side. Recorded 1.20”’of rain which is well less than half of normal. Saw eight days where the highs exceeded 70, and 14 mornings with lows in the 30s, including frost on 4 mornings.

Realistically looking like this will be our 3rd extremely dry year in a row. This is the water year so far.

Screenshot_20200501-094046_Chrome.jpg

https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/water_supply/wy_summary/wy_summary.php?tab=1

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Realistically looking like this will be our 3rd extremely dry year in a row. This is the water year so far.

attachicon.gifScreenshot_20200501-094046_Chrome.jpg

https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/water_supply/wy_summary/wy_summary.php?tab=1

 

 

Does not look good for Oregon... definitely wetter than normal up here though.     

 

As usual.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Beautiful. Did you take this?

Capture from a video I took.  The group was heading south like a pod of whales.  They would surface for a moment then go under for a moment.  Haven’t seen them gather like this before down here.  Anyhow enjoyable to watch this morning.  

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Decent band of rain comes through western WA tomorrow morning... but Sunday now looks pretty dry and at least partly sunny.  

 

Then nice on Monday and Tuesday and then another quick band of rain on Wednesday morning for WA and then a dry pattern is established.

 

Not bad... we should get some decent rain along with plenty of sun and warm temps if the GFS verifies.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I’m ready now! Lol

I'm hoping they open the salmon and steelhead fishing on the Columbia soon!

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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Decent band of rain comes through western WA tomorrow morning... but Sunday now looks pretty dry and at least partly sunny.

 

Then nice on Monday and Tuesday and then another quick band of rain on Wednesday morning for WA and then a dry pattern is established.

 

Not bad... we should get some decent rain along with plenty of sun and warm temps if the GFS verifies.

Next weekend is looking spectacular.

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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I'm hoping they open the salmon and steelhead fishing on the Columbia soon!

Not sure how to break this to you, but fish need water. These drought years have really been hurting the runs.

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Wow, the 12Z EURO is worlds apart from the GFS. Has a nice ULL spinning over us by next weekend with showers and highs in the upper 50s by Sunday.

 

I'm sure we're gonna still end up getting deep fried, but I will enjoy this run for now.

 

An inch and a half of rain for Portland by day 8-9. About three times more than what the GFS shows in that same period

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12Z ECMWF is about the same with the large scale features. That little ULL is a tenous feature of course and could easily disappear.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Should be some garden variety storms around tomorrow at the very least. No 5/4/17 repeat from the looks of it.

F4EA5A67-B949-41F2-8366-E41FF3B485E7.jpeg

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-16

Monthly rainfall-0.82”

Cold season rainfall-32.91”

Snowfall-15.5”

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Will next week after wed become warm and dry or will it be wet again we will see

Cold and wet is likely.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Somehow I missed this earlier, but it looks like April ended up being the 5th warmest on record for PDX, with an average temp of 54.5

 

1990 had been the previous 5th place, with the same average temp.

 

Not too bad for a cold spring.

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That’s a very Jesse-favorable D11-15 EPS today. I’m counting 39/52 members that flip back to troughing and wetter than normal conditions during that period. And of course, 11 members that resemble a Tim dry-dream. And a couple that are just blah.

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That’s a very Jesse-favorable D11-15 EPS today. I’m counting 39/52 members that flip back to troughing and wetter than normal conditions during that period. And of course, 11 members that resemble a Tim dry-dream. And a couple that are just blah.

 

Looks very wet and cold out West... and warm in the East.

 

A deep, cold trough over the Midwest and NE is usually very cold out here.   ;)

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Eventually I suspect a modest dry/coolish-continental background state takes over around/after the solstice..but not an overwhelming one. Moisture advection with respect to climo declines with time, and is much reduced over the West when compared to 2019. Hot/dry theme in the SW and South-Central US (and perhaps the Intermountain West as well) with a tight thermal gradient over West-Central Canada and the PNW region, possibly a -NAO/Aleutian Ridge tandem as well. But in a bizarre way, this might be a low pass signal that is only “weak” because it’s merely conveying the general MJO-driven instability, if it continues beyond the Asian monsoonal inception. I suppose the results could be interpreted a few different ways.

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Looks very wet and cold out West... and warm in the East.

 

A deep, cold trough over the Midwest and NE is usually very cold out here. ;)

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-

It can be cool everywhere, in theory. See the summers of the 1960s. Wavelengths work differently during the warm season, and they’ll be shortening significantly over the next month (though at the moment they’re very winter like, possibly owing to the powerful vortex that is only now breaking down).

 

In the summer, a west-coast ridge often correlates to a plains/midwest trough and an east-coast ridge and/or SW flow/high humidity here. Our cool/dry summer patterns have historically featured a broad/flat ridge centered over NM/TX with a low over Newfoundland/Ontario. A trough over the Plains/Midwest just pumps in Gulf Moisture like a firehose.

 

A jackpot would be something like the summer of 1964, which was chilly everywhere and had low humidity in most places. I’d love to experience the weather from that decade again..-NAO/-PNA almost every winter, retracting Hadley Cells, a circulo-convective regime that likely produced a systemic radiative deficit/cooling, irrespective of current analyses, etc.

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Should be some garden variety storms around tomorrow at the very least. No 5/4/17 repeat from the looks of it.

 

05/04/2017 was a nice little outbreak, well not little at all actually :P 

 

NWS Medford issued their 2nd ever Tornado Warning that day for a storm near Crater Lake. The first one they put out was wayy back in Aug 2005.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.20"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - T"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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Some mixed thoughts on tomorrow's action. Surface temp for the time of year can definitely be on the warmer side. Probably not gonna have the kinds of storms we had in May 2013 in this area. Still I should get my cameras charged up if there happens to be a little surprise.

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.20"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - T"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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