May 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido 5633]

A little early but I'm trying to stay positive. Let's get some nice spring variety this May!!!

[GeorgeWx 236]

A little early but I'm trying to stay positive. Let's get some nice spring variety this May!!!

Cool name dude, what’s the story behind it?

[TigerWoodsLibido 5633]

Cool name dude, what’s the story behind it?

 

Always been a fan of Tiger. His personal issues in the late 2000s still make me laugh and yet I genuinely feel bad for the guy for going through it. Him winning the Masters last year was one of my favorite sports moments ever.

[Tyler Mode 1643]

Starting off May with a frosty 36 degrees!

[SilverFallsAndrew 14951]

Chilly 35 degree morning to start May. Was a gorgeous evening last night. Chilliest start t o May I have had up here was May 2013, with a low of 25 on the 1st.

 

[Jesse 8952]

Low of 37 here this morning. Nice chilly start to what should be a merciless blowtorch of a month.

[ShawniganLake 5475]

Low of 44 here this morning. Cloudy and a bit breezy overnight

[TacomaWaWx 4428]

39 here this morning...quite a bit of mid 30s this morning with a freeze in Olympia. Chilliest May morning here since 2013 as well.

[TT-SEA 3764]

Lilacs in bloom on this first morning of May...

 

[Frontal Snowsquall 2620]

Finished April with a +2.7 departure. Had negative departures the first 4 days but never hit negative again the rest of the month. Had 1.28" of rain which is 33.2% of normal. A total of 11 clear days, 13 partly cloudy days and 6 cloudy days.

[Jesse 8952]

Finished April with a +2.7 departure. Had negative departures the first 4 days but never hit negative again the rest of the month. Had 1.28" of rain which is 33.2% of normal. A total of 11 clear days, 13 partly cloudy days and 6 cloudy days.

You live at the Troutdale airport?

[Jginmartini 3832]

Low of 38*

Car windows frozen up on this beautiful first day of May! 
May Day protest today? I’ve been ignoring the news  

[Frontal Snowsquall 2620]

You live at the Troutdale airport?

I live nearby, closest location to my house.

[Jginmartini 3832]

Five seals enjoying the boat free waters of the Sound this morning

 

Currently 49* 

[Frontal Snowsquall 2620]

Five seals enjoying the boat free waters of the Sound this morning

 

Currently 49*

Fishing going to be really good once they open it back up for you guys.

[Jesse 8952]

Five seals enjoying the boat free waters of the Sound this morning

 

Currently 49*

 

Beautiful. Did you take this?

[Jesse 8952]

Ended April with a 64/41 spread here. A little over a degree above average. Lows were slightly on the chilly side with highs on the warm side. Recorded 1.20”’of rain which is well less than half of normal. Saw eight days where the highs exceeded 70, and 14 mornings with lows in the 30s, including frost on 4 mornings.

[Jesse 8952]

I've got some shocking news. Models are trending significantly drier for this weekend, for the Portland area and points south.

[TT-SEA 3764]

I've got some shocking news. Models are trending significantly drier for this weekend, for the Portland area and points south.

 

 

And north of Portland too.  

[El_Nina 1184]

Ended April with a 64/41 spread here. A little over a degree above average. Lows were slightly on the chilly side with highs on the warm side. Recorded 1.20”’of rain which is well less than half of normal. Saw eight days where the highs exceeded 70, and 14 mornings with lows in the 30s, including frost on 4 mornings.

Realistically looking like this will be our 3rd extremely dry year in a row. This is the water year so far.

https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/water_supply/wy_summary/wy_summary.php?tab=1

[Jesse 8952]

This run also really beefs up the ridging. Gets Portland up toward 90 before day 10, with several days in a row above 80.

[Jginmartini 3832]

Fishing going to be really good once they open it back up for you guys.

I’m  ready now! Lol

[TT-SEA 3764]

Realistically looking like this will be our 3rd extremely dry year in a row. This is the water year so far.

Screenshot_20200501-094046_Chrome.jpg

https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/water_supply/wy_summary/wy_summary.php?tab=1

 

 

Does not look good for Oregon... definitely wetter than normal up here though.     

 

As usual.

[Jginmartini 3832]

Beautiful. Did you take this?

Capture from a video I took.  The group was heading south like a pod of whales.  They would surface for a moment then go under for a moment.  Haven’t seen them gather like this before down here.  Anyhow enjoyable to watch this morning.  

[TT-SEA 3764]

Decent band of rain comes through western WA tomorrow morning... but Sunday now looks pretty dry and at least partly sunny.  

 

Then nice on Monday and Tuesday and then another quick band of rain on Wednesday morning for WA and then a dry pattern is established.

 

Not bad... we should get some decent rain along with plenty of sun and warm temps if the GFS verifies.

[Jginmartini 3832]

I've got some shocking news. Models are trending significantly drier for this weekend, for the Portland area and points south.

Sad! 

[Frontal Snowsquall 2620]

I’m ready now! Lol

I'm hoping they open the salmon and steelhead fishing on the Columbia soon!

[Frontal Snowsquall 2620]

Decent band of rain comes through western WA tomorrow morning... but Sunday now looks pretty dry and at least partly sunny.

 

Then nice on Monday and Tuesday and then another quick band of rain on Wednesday morning for WA and then a dry pattern is established.

 

Not bad... we should get some decent rain along with plenty of sun and warm temps if the GFS verifies.

Next weekend is looking spectacular.

[Jesse 8952]

I'm hoping they open the salmon and steelhead fishing on the Columbia soon!

Not sure how to break this to you, but fish need water. These drought years have really been hurting the runs.

[Jesse 8952]

12z Euro is wetter than the GFS through day 7. Good to see.

[Jesse 8952]

Wow, the 12Z EURO is worlds apart from the GFS. Has a nice ULL spinning over us by next weekend with showers and highs in the upper 50s by Sunday.

 

I'm sure we're gonna still end up getting deep fried, but I will enjoy this run for now.

 

An inch and a half of rain for Portland by day 8-9. About three times more than what the GFS shows in that same period

[TT-SEA 3764]

12Z ECMWF is about the same with the large scale features. That little ULL is a tenous feature of course and could easily disappear.

[TacomaWaWx 4428]

Should be some garden variety storms around tomorrow at the very least. No 5/4/17 repeat from the looks of it.

[Jesse 8952]

Clouding up here now, 59 after a low of 37.

 

Looks like some light showers are moving in, per the radar. Probably won’t amount to much though.

[seattleweatherguy 483]

Will next week after wed become warm and dry or will it be wet again we will see

[Jesse 8952]

Will next week after wed become warm and dry or will it be wet again we will see

My money is on warm and dry.

[TT-SEA 3764]

Will next week after wed become warm and dry or will it be wet again we will see

Cold and wet is likely.

[Jesse 8952]

Somehow I missed this earlier, but it looks like April ended up being the 5th warmest on record for PDX, with an average temp of 54.5

 

1990 had been the previous 5th place, with the same average temp.

 

Not too bad for a cold spring.

[TT-SEA 3764]

65 and sunny here now.

[Phil 11798]

That’s a very Jesse-favorable D11-15 EPS today. I’m counting 39/52 members that flip back to troughing and wetter than normal conditions during that period. And of course, 11 members that resemble a Tim dry-dream. And a couple that are just blah.

[TT-SEA 3764]

That’s a very Jesse-favorable D11-15 EPS today. I’m counting 39/52 members that flip back to troughing and wetter than normal conditions during that period. And of course, 11 members that resemble a Tim dry-dream. And a couple that are just blah.

 

Looks very wet and cold out West... and warm in the East.

 

A deep, cold trough over the Midwest and NE is usually very cold out here.  

 

[Phil 11798]

[Phil 11798]

Eventually I suspect a modest dry/coolish-continental background state takes over around/after the solstice..but not an overwhelming one. Moisture advection with respect to climo declines with time, and is much reduced over the West when compared to 2019. Hot/dry theme in the SW and South-Central US (and perhaps the Intermountain West as well) with a tight thermal gradient over West-Central Canada and the PNW region, possibly a -NAO/Aleutian Ridge tandem as well. But in a bizarre way, this might be a low pass signal that is only “weak” because it’s merely conveying the general MJO-driven instability, if it continues beyond the Asian monsoonal inception. I suppose the results could be interpreted a few different ways.

[Jesse 8952]

[Phil 11798]

Looks very wet and cold out West... and warm in the East.

 

A deep, cold trough over the Midwest and NE is usually very cold out here.

 

It can be cool everywhere, in theory. See the summers of the 1960s. Wavelengths work differently during the warm season, and they’ll be shortening significantly over the next month (though at the moment they’re very winter like, possibly owing to the powerful vortex that is only now breaking down).

 

In the summer, a west-coast ridge often correlates to a plains/midwest trough and an east-coast ridge and/or SW flow/high humidity here. Our cool/dry summer patterns have historically featured a broad/flat ridge centered over NM/TX with a low over Newfoundland/Ontario. A trough over the Plains/Midwest just pumps in Gulf Moisture like a firehose.

 

A jackpot would be something like the summer of 1964, which was chilly everywhere and had low humidity in most places. I’d love to experience the weather from that decade again..-NAO/-PNA almost every winter, retracting Hadley Cells, a circulo-convective regime that likely produced a systemic radiative deficit/cooling, irrespective of current analyses, etc.

[TT-SEA 3764]

Phil is bored today.

[Phil 11798]

[Deweydog 14121]

[Timmy_Supercell 2237]

Should be some garden variety storms around tomorrow at the very least. No 5/4/17 repeat from the looks of it.

 

05/04/2017 was a nice little outbreak, well not little at all actually  

 

NWS Medford issued their 2nd ever Tornado Warning that day for a storm near Crater Lake. The first one they put out was wayy back in Aug 2005.

[Timmy_Supercell 2237]

Some mixed thoughts on tomorrow's action. Surface temp for the time of year can definitely be on the warmer side. Probably not gonna have the kinds of storms we had in May 2013 in this area. Still I should get my cameras charged up if there happens to be a little surprise.