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May 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW


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Have picked up 0.06” this morning...52 and cloudy currently. The front offshore looks nice...going to be an interesting day (or two) of weather coming.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Zilch here but that will be changing shortly. 55F.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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12Z GFS does not show much of a ridge... seems like amplified ridging always fades away before it gets here.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hopefully a nice squall is hiding behind these generic moderate showers approaching.  :ph34r:

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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FWIW... the 12Z GEFS is much less aggressive than the operational run with breaking down the ridge through day 10 at least.

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850-anom-str

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This light rain is soooo exciting.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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12Z GEFS holds the warm west and cold east pattern right through day 16.   

 

Here is the 10-day mean from day 6-16:

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850-anom-10d

 

 

 

And here is the end of the run... the pattern changes very little.

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850-anom-str

 

 

 

Too bad its the GEFS.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Models seem to be backing off from us seeing our first 80 degree weather of the season late next week, for now. But my guess is they will come back around. Probably a spike into the low to mid 80s for the ridgy period down here.

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Got gusty here a little. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Not much of a squall line this morning so far. Too bad. At least we are still getting some needed rainfall.

Currently 54 with light to moderate rain at times.

It’s still early...I thought the willamette valley and Puget sound areas weren’t even supposed to see any excitement just yet anyways. There’s a good chance there will be scattered thunderstorms today and tomorrow too.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Not much of a squall line this morning so far. Too bad. At least we are still getting some needed rainfall.

 

Currently 54 with light to moderate rain at times.

My brother said a squall line just moved through Coos County, so maybe later? Some intermittent light/moderate rain down here so far.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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My brother said a squall line just moved through Coos County, so maybe later? Some intermittent light/moderate rain down here so far.

Squall line would be showing up on radar down in your area soon if that’s the case. They really need to have better radar coverage in Oregon.
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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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FWIW... the 12Z GEFS is much less aggressive than the operational run with breaking down the ridge through day 10 at least.

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850-anom-str

Fuuuck yeah look at those purples. :wub: :wub: :wub:

 

Haven’t had an 80*F high since MARCH. Still hard to believe this is actually happening, lol. Going to enjoy it for every second it lasts.

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Squall line would be showing up on radar down in your area soon if that’s the case. They really need to have better radar coverage in Oregon.

Ain’t that the truth. The coverage for about 2/3 is the state is pretty pathetic.

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My brother said a squall line just moved through Coos County, so maybe later? Some intermittent light/moderate rain down here so far.

The location of the imbedded squall is evident on velocity. You can clearly see where there’s increased vertical overturning/boundary layer mixing.

 

Sorry for the cows**t illustration. Rushed it:

 

HsaEV4N.jpg

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Doesn’t look intense but it’s there. Room for it to consolidate I suppose but that’s a crapload of precip out ahead of it. Won’t be much surface based instability so full mixing will be tough. If there are solid pressure rises associated with it, that’d help. Haven’t followed closely so not sure if it’s frontal/pre-frontal, etc. If it’s the former, I’d be more interested.

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Fuuuck yeah look at those purples. :wub: :wub: :wub:

Haven’t had an 80*F high since MARCH. Still hard to believe this is actually happening, lol. Going to enjoy it for every second it lasts.

I feel that. No 80s here since September 12th. If the upcoming ridge keeps getting watered down, we could kick that can even further down the road. Maybe a coast to coast cool May in store? :wub: :wub: :wub:

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It’s looking better, a lot of south to north movement, not pushing East very fast.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Ain’t that the truth. The coverage for about 2/3 is the state is pretty pathetic.

A thunderstorm can pass right over Eugene or Roseburg and it would barely be visible on any radar image. Even worse for Florence and Coos Bay. Lane + Douglas counties is nearly half a million people with little or no coverage. They really need to put a radar between NWS Portland and Medford.

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I feel that. No 80s here since September 12th. If the upcoming ridge keeps getting watered down, we could kick that can even further down the road. Maybe a coast to coast cool May in store? :wub: :wub: :wub:

Jim??

 

Jinx.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah, you guys have some serious radar holes to fill. Especially within the lower boundary layer, which is crucial for determining whether severe winds/etc are actually reaching the surface, whether a meso/couplet is/isn’t a tornado, etc.

 

NINA0vr.jpg

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Wind just picked up.  Almost here I think. Still dry for now.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Wind just picked up. Almost here I think. Still dry for now.

It’s on your doorstep based on RadarScope’s super-res velocity product from nexrad. Also higher VIL values associated with the squall.

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Bigtime wind just now out of nowhere. On the porch enjoying this.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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Yeah, you guys have some serious radar holes to fill. Especially within the lower boundary layer, which is crucial for determining whether severe winds/etc are actually reaching the surface, whether a meso/couplet is/isn’t a tornado, etc.

 

NINA0vr.jpg

 

There was a small squall line in the Medford CWA in Jan 2016 that was just about transparent. It picks up summer convection really well though.

  • Like 2

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Bigtime wind just now out of nowhere. On the porch enjoying this.

It’s going to be fun watching this front swing through the I-5 corridor this afternoon.
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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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It’s going to be fun watching this front swing through the I-5 corridor this afternoon.

 

Hopefully some vigorous showers behind it as well. Fronts have been a little one and done lately, that's one big element that has been missing.

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