May 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW

[BLI snowman]

Most the U.S. hasn't exactly fried the past couple years.

 

cd174.29.57.90.148.21.22.24.prcp.png

 

Past couple of years would include the extremely warm start to this year. And that it is a good chunk, even with you using a 1981-2010 baseline, which includes the two warmest decades of the 20th century and the extremely pitiful 2000s.

 

Again, weird to even be contesting this extremely plain and objective fact that the U.S. has been extremely warm this century and also recently.

[BLI snowman]

What does this have to do with my original post(s)? Why should I answer for claims I never made and aren’t even adjacent to my original post?

 

I merely posted satellite measurements of the global lower stratosphere, noting the anomalous temperature spike in the absence of volcanic forcing, and the fact it was dynamically driven via an anomalous evolution of the system state.

 

Then Justine builds a snowman argument re: radiative-aerosol-forced volcanic cooling, all-the-while completely misunderstanding how it works (it actually helps warm the middle latitudes during the winter, see 1991/92).

 

Pinatubo likely had nothing to do with why 1991-92 was a warm winter (major El Nino) and there is a lag with when SO2 induced cooling will kick in. I believe it's generally accepted to have begun by the summer of 1992, which was extremely chilly across a wide swath of the northern hemisphere. And continued into winter 1992-93, which was also quite cold in many places.

[Front Ranger]

Past couple of years would include the extremely warm start to this year. And that it is a good chunk, even with you using a 1981-2010 baseline, which includes the two warmest decades of the 20th century and the extremely pitiful 2000s.

 

Again, weird to even be contesting this extremely plain and objective fact that the U.S. has been extremely warm this century and also recently.

 

The greatest anomalies are, in fact, cold anomalies over the past two full calendar years.

 

#montanaanomaliesmatter

[BLI snowman]

 

The greatest anomalies are, in fact, cold anomalies over the past two full calendar years.

 

#montanaanomaliesmatter

 

 

 

They're the only ones that do, apparently!

[GeorgeWx]

A source of controversy in these parts...I don't think anyone believes it would have topped 110 without the smoke, but perhaps the all-time record was in reach.

 

I wouldn't call 107 low hanging fruit. 102 in June is, though.

With no smoke, 107 would have been broken for sure. Low hanging fruit because the record of 107 is from 1965 and 1981. The climate in Portland has been warming since then. Especially the last ten years. Other parts of the country have seen numerous new all time record highs. Seattle went from 100 to 103 so Portland reaching 110 can happen.

[Phil]

Implications like the U.S. and the world at large continue to fry? I didn't realize that wasn't an objective reality.

 

And I'd love to see a breakdown showing how much more impressive the early May D.C trough was than something like December 23-25, 1983. I'm sure you'll have plentiful data as always when pressed.

In terms of what? “Impressive” is subjective terminology and isn’t scientific.

 

If you want data:

 

- It was the coldest 850mb temperature ever recorded during the month of May.

-DCA (modern location) broke a record from 1877 (old location) with the May event.

 

That cannot be said of 1983. Feb 2015 and Jan 2014 were both significantly colder at 850mb than Dec 1983. In fact it’s not even close.

[Phil]

Surface temps do a plenty good job of that all on their own. Have you looked at a global temperature anomaly map recently?

No, they actually don’t. They’re f**king useless.

[BLI snowman]

In terms of what? “Impressive” is subjective terminology and isn’t scientific.

 

If you want data:

 

- It was the coldest 850mb temperature ever recorded during the month of May.

-DCA (modern location) broke a record from 1877 (old location) with the May event.

 

That cannot be said of 1983. Feb 2015 and Jan 2014 were both significantly colder at 850mb than Dec 1983. In fact it’s not even close.

 

 

Where is the reanalysis and ranking of every 500mb airmass for everyone in the country? We'd all love to see it!

 

And also

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1983/us1224.php

 

Pretty sure that nothing has sniffed that in this century. LOOK AT THAT MAP!

[BLI snowman]

No, they actually don’t. They’re f**king useless.

 

 

Stampede Pass is almost 850mb, so I understand the preference.

[Front Ranger]

With no smoke, 107 would have been broken for sure. Low hanging fruit because the record of 107 is from 1965 and 1981. The climate in Portland has been warming since then. Especially the last ten years. Other parts of the country have seen numerous new all time record highs. Seattle went from 100 to 103 so Portland reaching 110 can happen.

 

SEA going from 100 to 103 was partly due to 100 being low hanging fruit for them and partly due to the enhanced UHI/land use changes seen at that location.

 

The Portland area has topped 102 in June or very early July as far back as the early 1940s, so I'd say that's more due to fall.

[Phil]

Pinatubo likely had nothing to do with why 1991-92 was a warm winter (major El Nino) and there is a lag with when SO2 induced cooling will kick in. I believe it's generally accepted to have begun by the summer of 1992, which was extremely chilly across a wide swath of the northern hemisphere. And continued into winter 1992-93, which was also quite cold in many places.

The bolded is demonstrably false. There’s no correlation between ENSO and US temperatures. The warming of the tropical stratosphere relative to the polar stratosphere thanks to the SO^2 spike strengthened the thermal winds/developed a super PV which coupled to the troposphere during winter 1991/92.

 

And by your logic/timeline, if it “began in 1992”, then the effects of the ongoing stratospheric temperature spike would not manifest until next winter. Can’t have it both ways.

 

I don’t think you understand the multi-dimensional nature of these processes. Both the it’s no coincidence that the winters during each of the last three stratospheric temperature spikes were ALL warm across the CONUS (1982/83, 1991/92, and 2019/20). There are multiple reasons for that. And it has nothing to do with global temperature anomalies.

[Front Ranger]

They're the only ones that do, apparently!

 

Fact is, you were so caught up in global anomalies and the warm winter of 2019-20, you failed to notice the past couple years weren't actually all that warm for the U.S. Certainly not "frying".

[BLI snowman]

SEA going from 100 to 103 was partly due to 100 being low hanging fruit for them and partly due to the enhanced UHI/land use changes seen at that location.

 

The Portland area has topped 102 in June or very early July as far back as the early 1940s, so I'd say that's more due to fall.

 

Nah.

 

Sand Point actually hit 105 that day. Suburban Monroe hit 102. Paine Field hit 100. That airmass was just legit. 

[BLI snowman]

The bolded is demonstrably false. There’s no correlation between ENSO and US temperatures. The warming of the tropical stratosphere relative to the polar stratosphere thanks to the SO^2 spike strengthened the thermal winds/developed a super PV which coupled to the troposphere during winter 1991/92.

 

And by your logic/timeline, if it “began in 1992”, then the effects of the ongoing stratospheric temperature spike would not manifest until next winter. Can’t have it both ways.

 

I don’t think you understand the multi-dimensional nature of these processes. Both the it’s no coincidence that the winters during each of the last three stratospheric temperature spikes were ALL warm across the CONUS (1982/83, 1991/92, and 2019/20). There are multiple reasons for that. And it has nothing to do with global temperature anomalies.

 

 

Might want to tell NOAA that.

[TacomaWaWx]

It’s warm still...70 degrees at 9:30.

[Front Ranger]

Nah.

 

Sand Point actually hit 105 that day. Suburban Monroe hit 102. Paine Field hit 100. That airmass was just legit. 

 

Sand Point is actually further away from the water and has a much shorter period of record.

 

Of course the air mass was legit. But 100 was low hanging fruit for SEA...especially modern day SEA.

[BLI snowman]

Fact is, you were so caught up in global anomalies and the warm winter of 2019-20, you failed to notice the past couple years weren't actually all that warm for the U.S. Certainly not "frying".

 

2018 was 1.5 degrees above the long term average. Good enough for the 14th warmest back to 1895.

 

2019 was 0.65 degrees above the long term average. Only 34th warmest!

 

Major progress over 2017, which is the 3rd warmest year. 2016, which is the 2nd warmest year. And 2015, which is the 4th warmest year.

 

The warmest? Way back in 2012! 

 

Of course January-April 2020 was the 10th warmest on record, so we seem to be getting back on track after our frigid year last year!

[BLI snowman]

Sand Point is actually further away from the water and has a much shorter period of record.

 

Of course the air mass was legit. But 100 was low hanging fruit for SEA...especially modern day SEA.

 

I agree it was low hanging fruit, but you wouldn't be diminishing the historic nature of such an event if it were something on the cold side.

 

Simply a fact that the 2009 heat wave is the greatest on record for the Puget Sound. Hardly something that was exclusive to SEA.

[Deweydog]

Seems to me it’s actually cooling off out here right now... so......

[BLI snowman]

Also worth noting that SEA hasn't even topped 96 since that 2009 event. So if land use changes alone were making things so much worse there, you'd think they'd be able to at least get close to that benchmark in some of these hot recent summers.

 

They are probably dew now.

[ShawniganLake]

We had a few drops of rain fall here around mid morning. Then it quickly cleared out and the temp topped out at 81F this afternoon

[GeorgeWx]

SEA going from 100 to 103 was partly due to 100 being low hanging fruit for them and partly due to the enhanced UHI/land use changes seen at that location.

 

The Portland area has topped 102 in June or very early July as far back as the early 1940s, so I'd say that's more due to fall.

They both will fall soon. With clear skies and no smoke, Portland can reach 110.

[GeorgeWx]

Nah.

 

Sand Point actually hit 105 that day. Suburban Monroe hit 102. Paine Field hit 100. That airmass was just legit.

It was my first summer in Portland. Summers are getting hotter here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still 73F in downtown Springfield. Warm night.

[GeorgeWx]

I agree it was low hanging fruit, but you wouldn't be diminishing the historic nature of such an event if it were something on the cold side.

 

Simply a fact that the 2009 heat wave is the greatest on record for the Puget Sound. Hardly something that was exclusive to SEA.

It was also great in Portland. Where would you rank it for here?

[Front Ranger]

Also worth noting that SEA hasn't even topped 96 since that 2009 event. So if land use changes alone were making things so much worse there, you'd think they'd be able to at least get close to that benchmark in some of these hot recent summers.

 

They are probably dew now.

 

There have been hot summers, but not not a lot of extreme individual events.

[Front Ranger]

I agree it was low hanging fruit

 

Cool (hot).

[BLI snowman]

It was also great in Portland. Where would you rank it for here?

 

Probably would say numero 2 for our area. August 1981 was definitely a smidge hotter.

[Front Ranger]

Also worth noting that SEA hasn't even topped 96 since that 2009 event. So if land use changes alone were making things so much worse there, you'd think they'd be able to at least get close to that benchmark in some of these hot recent summers.

 

They are probably dew now.

 

"Worse" is subjective, of course. But there's been plenty of evidence shared on here about how warm season anomalies have changed there since 2005. It's a real thing.

 

OLM is a national treasure.

[Front Ranger]

They both will fall soon. With clear skies and no smoke, Portland can reach 110.

 

Maybe. I'd shoot for 108 first. 

[BLI snowman]

There have been hot summers, but not not a lot of extreme individual events.

 

Coming soon to a PNW airport near you!

 

Also worth noting that a lot of our mega heat wave years were actually followed by winters with decent arctic airmasses (2009, 2006, 1998, 1988, 1981, 1961, 1956, 1942, 1941). We definitely want them.

[Phil]

Might want to tell NOAA that.

To be clear, we’re talking about the national temperature anomaly, not the distribution of regional anomalies within the country.

 

Figured you’d pick that up.

[Phil]

Check out Portland, Maine. The majority of top-tier 850mb airmasses are very recent.

 

Nov, Dec, Jan.

 

[GeorgeWx]

Maybe. I'd shoot for 108 first.

Sounds fair enough

[GHweatherChris]

Good lord...

[Phil]

Where is the reanalysis and ranking of every 500mb airmass for everyone in the country? We'd all love to see it!

 

And also

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1983/us1224.php

 

Pretty sure that nothing has sniffed that in this century. LOOK AT THAT MAP!

Right here: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundingclimo/

 

Though 2020 data hasn’t been added yet.

[Front Ranger]

Coming soon to a PNW airport near you!

 

Also worth noting that a lot of our mega heat wave years were actually followed by winters with decent arctic airmasses (2009, 2006, 1998, 1988, 1981, 1961, 1956, 1942, 1941). We definitely want them.

 

Yeah, but then you have those annoying 1949, 1955, 1962, 1968, 1971, 1972, 1983, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2008, 2010 years.

 

So definitely maybe.

[Omegaraptor]

HIO is already down to 71. This really feels more like a 90 degree day in the mountains of central/eastern Oregon or northern California than a typical 90 degree day in the valley. The massive diurnal range is wonderful and the temperature actually dropped quickly as the sun went down. Honestly, pretty much my ideal summer weather.

[Front Ranger]

Check out Portland, Maine. The majority of top-tier 850mb airmasses are very recent.

 

Nov, Dec, Jan.

 

 

 

WRONG PORTLAND.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, but then you have those annoying 1949, 1955, 1962, 1968, 1971, 1972, 1983, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2008, 2010 years.

 

So definitely maybe.

 

 

2008, 1990, and 1972 had some pretty good heat events at least. And the famed cold summer of 1955 actually topped out at 100 in Seattle with the big early June event.