May 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

73 degrees here...really nice day.

[TT-SEA]

75 here.

[BLI snowman]

You’re still not grasping this.

 

Re: the stratospheric temperature spike:

 

1) The ongoing spike didn’t start until the very end of winter (Feb 2020). The 1991/92 spike was already 6 months along before winter even started. Same goes for 1982/83. So your timeline doesn’t compute.

 

2) What you’re missing is the fact a warmer tropical stratosphere/weaker MC would (*initially*) contribute to warming the middle latitudes, under a strong +NAM. Eventually, the inverse is possibly true.

 

And FWIW, last winter had a more El Niño-like tropical/walker circulation than 2009/10, and a more El Niño-like Hadley Cell structure than 2015/16. It might as well have been a strong niño.

 

Nah, I'm grasping it perfectly fine. It was just kind of a messy, disjointed point. The most prescient detail being that the great current volcanic cooling style background state hasn't translated to any meaningful differences in NH temperature. And 2019-20 was arguably the weakest winter in recorded hemispheric history. We're pretty well screwed when it comes to cold procurement for the foreseeable future.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EUG still at 79F. Springfield stations at 80F.

[Deweydog]

Nice day.

 

Warm. And clear. I can, in fact, see MULTIPLE volcanoes to my east.

[Front Ranger]

Is that why we just had one of the warmest winters on record?

 

Pretty far cry from the post-Pinatubo landscape I would think.

 

The periods before and after the winter (of course) have been quite a bit chillier, though.

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Nah, I'm grasping it perfectly fine. It was just kind of a messy, disjointed point. The most prescient detail being that the great current volcanic cooling style background state hasn't translated to any meaningful differences in NH temperature. And 2019-20 was arguably the weakest winter in recorded hemispheric history. We're pretty well screwed when it comes to cold procurement for the foreseeable future.

 

Sure wasn't here.

[Phil]

Nah, I'm grasping it perfectly fine. It was just kind of a messy, disjointed point. The most prescient detail being that the great current volcanic cooling style background state hasn't translated to any meaningful differences in NH temperature. And 2019-20 was arguably the weakest winter in recorded hemispheric history. We're pretty well screwed when it comes to cold procurement for the foreseeable future.

This wasn’t volcanically induced, though. It was dynamically induced, from the system state itself. So the timeline of any long term implications are very different. The stratosphere isn’t loaded with SO^2 like it was after Pinatubo.

 

As for cold, just 2 weeks ago, the US observed the most anomalous upper level airmass in recorded history. It was the largest standard deviation (either warm or cold) observed in any season, and it destroyed all the 500mb records in the NCEP NCAR reanalysis back to the early 19th century.

 

You always pick the possible time to make these ridiculous “cold air is gone” posts.

[Phil]

Sure wasn't here.

Justin likes his crow raw, apparently.

[Front Ranger]

This wasn’t volcanically induced, though. It was dynamically induced, from the system state itself. So the timeline of any long term implications are very different. The stratosphere isn’t loaded with SO^2 like it was after Pinatubo.

 

As for cold, just 2 weeks ago, the US observed the most anomalous upper level airmass in recorded history. It was the largest standard deviation (either warm or cold) observed in any season, and it destroyed all the 500mb records in the NCEP NCAR reanalysis back to the early 19th century.

 

You always pick the possible time to make these ridiculous “cold air is gone” posts.

 

It's actually a good omen. He was convinced the PNW lowlands were no longer capable of scoring a snowy winter in spring 2008...

[Omegaraptor]

Gorgeous day today. High of 84, now 79.

[Phil]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Gorgeous day today. High of 84, now 79.

85 out here today. Going to be a gorgeous sunset.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I doubt it. The good shtuff will be to our south and onshore flow will kill our chances as it lifts north. Could get pretty windy Sunday morning as that deepening low tracks inland.

 

Doesn't look like a surface driven event so it wouldn't surprise me if there were some thunderstorms embedded in that band. I've seen similar setups before but they typically go well offshore and hit the north island or slide east and hit the mainland. I've experience thunderstorms in Port Alberni and North Vancouver with such setups as well. The 0z NAM at least keeps it within the realm of possibilities:

 

 

The Lift Index looks pretty wimpy west of the Cascades, but other aspects of this feel a lot more dynamic than the setup earlier this month.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z GFS and 12z ECMWF aren't far apart on the precipitation shield:

 

 

 

[BLI snowman]

Sure wasn't here.

 

Cool.

[BLI snowman]

This wasn’t volcanically induced, though. It was dynamically induced, from the system state itself. So the timeline of any long term implications are very different. The stratosphere isn’t loaded with SO^2 like it was after Pinatubo.

 

As for cold, just 2 weeks ago, the US observed the most anomalous upper level airmass in recorded history. It was the largest standard deviation (either warm or cold) observed in any season, and it destroyed all the 500mb records in the NCEP NCAR reanalysis back to the early 19th century.

 

You always pick the possible time to make these ridiculous “cold air is gone” posts.

 

 

Eat your heart out, February 1899

[BLI snowman]

Justin likes his crow raw, apparently.

 

30 years is a long wait to eat it.

[Phil]

 

Eat your heart out, February 1899

Yes. February 1899 was an impressive low level airmass. But it was child’s play in the upper levels compared to May 2020. Like, not even close.

 

In some areas, May 2020 broke all-time 500mb records from DECEMBER.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Doesn't look like a surface driven event so it wouldn't surprise me if there were some thunderstorms embedded in that band. I've seen similar setups before but they typically go well offshore and hit the north island or slide east and hit the mainland. I've experience thunderstorms in Port Alberni and North Vancouver with such setups as well. The 0z NAM at least keeps it within the realm of possibilities:

 

 

The Lift Index looks pretty wimpy west of the Cascades, but other aspects of this feel a lot more dynamic than the setup earlier this month.

The 00z ICON looks good for some possible thunderstorms moving up from the South on Saturday.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh no. Not the ICON.

[Phil]

Days start getting shorter in 3 weeks!

 

We’re so close.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

We're into the WRF realm now:

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Hopefully it ends up being convective this weekend...if not then it looks like a good soaking for this time of year atleast.

73/51 today.

[Deweydog]

Holy pancakes!

 

The 00z was without a doubt the coldest early June run I’ve seen in the history of ever. Volcanic stuff.

[Timmy Supercell]

I'm liking your chances of seeing thunderstorms. I'm hoping we can get some up here as well.

 

I don't have my hopes up very high, I haven't had too many exciting t'storms in cool temps like that

[BLI snowman]

Yes. February 1899 was an impressive low level airmass. But it was child’s play in the upper levels compared to May 2020. Like, not even close.

 

In some areas, May 2020 broke all-time 500mb records from DECEMBER.

 

It likely wasn't even among the 100 most impressive cold events of the last 100 years in the U.S.

[TacomaWaWx]

Low of 57 this morning. Gonna be a warm one today. Took awhile to cool off to a comfortable sleeping temp last night was still in the low 60s until 4am .

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice morning.

[Jesse]

Nice morning.

It is very nice. Already up to 70 after a low of 52.

 

Had an 82/46 spread yesterday with clear skies. Looks like more high clouds today so far, although will likely end up 4-6 degrees warmer still.

[Phil]

It likely wasn't even among the 100 most impressive cold events of the last 100 years in the U.S.

As usual, you didn’t do your homework.

 

So I’ll do it for you. Again.

 

[Phil]

Justin loves to be wrong about everything.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It’s May Phil. No one will remember in 6 months.

[Phil]

It’s May Phil. No one will remember in 6 months.

I can see that.

 

You’d have to actually follow the weather as a hobby to remember stuff like this...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I can see that.

 

You’d have to actually follow the weather as a hobby to remember stuff like this...

Not that anyone outside this forum knows about 1899, but that event had fairly widespread sub-zero lows in Western Oregon too...

[ShawniganLake]

My cousin lives around the 18000ft elevation in southern Ontario. It got very cold at her house a few weeks ago.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It is hard to imagine the kind of beast that was a February 1899 or even December 1983 in our current climate.

[BLI snowman]

As usual, you didn’t do your homework.

 

So I’ll do it for you. Again.

 

 

 

 

Neat, do you really want me to list all of the other airmasses that have set monthly records in certain locations in the past century? We've got all day/week/month/year.

 

Your previous iceagenow escapades notwithstanding, it's funny seeing you so touchy when confronted with the obvious truth that cold extremes are still dwindling and are basically diet versions of what came in the 19th and 20th centuries. Your "new volcanic like normal" nonsense rings especially hollow when we're still sitting at near all time record high global temperatures and we don't even have the benefit of a major El Nino.

[Jesse]

Seems like every year there is a new big exciting thing Phil is talking about that will eventually bring some sort of earth shattering regime change with colder global temperatures. Been happening for about a decade now. And all the while, the planet has just steadily warmed in the background.