May 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW

[BLI snowman]

Seems like every year there is a new big exciting thing Phil is talking about that will eventually bring some sort of earth shattering regime change with colder global temperatures. Been happening for about a decade now. And all the while, the planet has just steadily warmed in the background.

 

He's a classic prisoner of the moment.

 

We're coming off of a winter that lacked any cold anomalies almost anywhere on the planet and here he is still pimping out a pretty run-of-the-mill cool May and a Pinatubo stratospheric comparison as the next big things. 

[Kayla]

27 of the last 32 months have been below average in Bozeman based on 1981-2010 averages.

 

I'm on the warming climate train as well but explain that one to me especially as there has been a ton of building/parking garages put in all around that site since the 80's and 90's.

[Deweydog]

27 of the last 32 months have been below average in Bozeman based on 1981-2010 averages.

 

I'm on the warming climate train as well but explain that one to me.

It means that things aren’t always as simple as we’d like them to be.

 

WUACD’s...

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

That weekend storm is looking like a gullywasher on the 12z GFS. Could be fun and climate changey.

[BLI snowman]

27 of the last 32 months have been below average in Bozeman based on 1981-2010 averages.

 

I'm on the warming climate train as well but explain that one to me especially as there has been a ton of building/parking garages put in all around that site since the 80's and 90's.

 

Recurring favorable upper air patterns. The PNW had a similar stretch in the 2010-12 period. 

 

And even with all of that, Bozeman had numerous colder years in the 20th century than 2019. So an extreme run of favorability today only gets you to a discount version of what we saw 100 years ago. Just something people need to keep in mind when they try to visualize future patterns.

[Kayla]

Looking like quite the light show along coast Saturday morning. I've got some family in Oceanside so it looks like they are in for quite the show.

 

 

[Deweydog]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I don't have my hopes up very high, I haven't had too many exciting t'storms in cool temps like that

I see, I hope you get some rain though to help with the drought conditions.

[Front Ranger]

My cousin lives around the 18000 ft elevation in southern Ontario. It got very cold at her house a few weeks ago.

 

Didn't realize the Himalayas had moved to Ontario. 

[Kayla]

Recurring favorable upper air patterns. The PNW had a similar stretch in the 2010-12 period. 

 

And even with all of that, Bozeman had numerous colder years in the 20th century than 2019. So an extreme run of favorability today only gets you to a discount version of what we saw 100 years ago. Just something people need to keep in mind when they try to visualize future patterns.

 

True true. I'll probably never see a Feburary/March 2019 again as far as negative anomalies go and I'm honestly fine with that. 

[Jesse]

Settle down. No one is attacking your microclimate minutia or proposing deconstructing SeaTac.

Sorry for the accurate criticism

[soicandownloadattachedfile]

Looking like quite the light show along coast Saturday morning. I've got some family in Oceanside so it looks like they are in for quite the show.

 

 

Anything over Castle Rock, WA or south?

[Kayla]

Anything over Castle Rock, WA or south?

 

Not looking like a favorable convective pattern for the inland lowlands. Maybe a couple of small boomers that survive the Cascades but it's mainly looking like some heavy rainfall. Oregon lowlands look a bit better.

[Deweydog]

Sorry for the accurate criticism

It probably is. I like to try to keep things as simple as possible so there’s a good chance it gets overdone at times. So be it. We can always count on you two and the Maryland Mountaineer to take it 88 yards to the house in the other direction, though.

[Front Ranger]

True true. I'll probably never see a Feburary/March 2019 again as far as negative anomalies go and I'm honestly fine with that. 

 

Justin is downplaying that a bit. It's not like Feb/Mar 2019's happened all the time in the 20th century - not even close. That was an extremely impressive stretch for any period on record.

[Deweydog]

Justin is downplaying that a bit. It's not like Feb/Mar 2019's happened all the time in the 20th century - not even close. That was an extremely impressive stretch for any period on record.

Don’t f*ck with the preferred narrative!

[soicandownloadattachedfile]

Not looking like a favorable convective pattern for the inland lowlands. Maybe a couple of small boomers that survive the coast range but it's mainly looking like some heavy rainfall. Oregon lowlands look a bit better.

These storms/showers will be moving from the east, so they'll hit the lowlands before the coast range.

[Jesse]

It probably is. I like to try to keep things as simple as possible so there’s a good chance it gets overdone at times. So be it. We can always count on you two and the Maryland Mountaineer to take it 88 yards to the house in the other direction, though.

Most people are probably a mix (including everyone mentioned here) depending on the situation. I can definitely see the merit in taking a broader view since details can often distract from the basic truths/dynamics of things. Then again there is a lot of information and appreciation that can be gained from being detail oriented. Anyway, I hope this isn’t making things too complex.

[BLI snowman]

Justin is downplaying that a bit. It's not like Feb/Mar 2019's happened all the time in the 20th century - not even close. That was an extremely impressive stretch for any period on record.

 

Never said it wasn't or that they did.

 

But then when you look at something like 1948-49 or the 1935-37 period or the sustained cold of a year like 1955 and you have to say to yourself "Yeah Jared, it probably isn't really that close".

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Looking like quite the light show along coast Saturday morning. I've got some family in Oceanside so it looks like they are in for quite the show.

 

Screen Shot 2020-05-28 at 11.43.52 AM.png

That's a strong signal for thunder. Some of the models are showing the strongest precipitation out near the Coast so I can see that verifying.

[Deweydog]

Most people are probably a mix (including everyone mentioned here) depending on the situation. I can definitely see the merit in taking a broader view since details can often distract from the basic truths/dynamics of things. Then again there is a lot of information and appreciation that can be gained from being detail oriented. Anyway, I hope this isn’t making things too complex.

Keeping things simple and being detail oriented are not mutually exclusive.

 

It’s more about explanation. Warm weather, cold weather, dry weather, wet weather often gets derationalized here for emotional reasons. You and your older brother up north espouse about it more than anyone here, hence the comparisons. Removing this reflexive emotion simplifies things while still allows for detailed analysis. Rarely, if ever, does our weather, be it the kind we like or dislike, defy logic and reason.

[Front Ranger]

Never said it wasn't or that they did.

 

But then when you look at something like 1948-49 or the 1935-37 period or the sustained cold of a year like 1955 and you have to say to yourself "Yeah Jared, it probably isn't really that close".

 

I think they are different things. Individual air masses like Phil was talking about, longer periods like Feb-Mar 2019, and then you're talking about multi-year periods.

 

The current climate has shown it can still produce very impressive shorter term periods, at least.

[Jesse]

Keeping things simple and being detail oriented are not mutually exclusive.

 

Never said they were. In fact that was the whole point of my post.

[Kayla]

These storms/showers will be moving from the east, so they'll hit the lowlands before the coast range.

 

Sorry, meant Cascades but yes storm movement looks NNW. 

[BLI snowman]

I think they are different things. Individual air masses like Phil was talking about, longer periods like Feb-Mar 2019, and then you're talking about multi-year periods.

 

The current climate has shown it can still produce very impressive shorter term periods, at least.

 

1948-49 and February 1936 were intermediate periods and they blow last year away completely when you look at their respective scales. I'm not saying last year's stretch wasn't impressive, it was, but it would be fair to call it a discount version of what was possible in the last two centuries. Jives with what we've seen elsewhere around the globe this century.

[Deweydog]

[Jesse]

In that case, it makes my point about your initial overreaction.

As for the rest of the ad hominem stuff. Good luck getting people to entirely emotionally detach from everything. Your inability to emotionally detach from the fact that many are not as emotionally detached as you would like kind of drives this home. That said, I still think there is a lot of good analysis that goes on here, emotions or no. It’s usually lost among the personality driven debates such as this, though. I’ve made a handful of analytical posts in the last month or so that pretty much get crickets as a repose. The inflammatory stuff tends to be much more popular, regardless of whether the response is positive or negative.

[Deweydog]

As for the rest of the ad hominem stuff. Good luck getting people to entirely emotionally detach from everything. Your inability to emotionally detach from the fact that many are not as emotionally detached as you would like kind of drives this home. That said, I still think there is a lot of good analysis that goes on here, emotions or no. It’s usually lost among the personality driven debates such as this, though. I’ve made a handful of analytical posts in the last month or so that pretty much get crickets as a repose. The inflammatory stuff tends to be much more popular, regardless of whether the response is positive or negative.

A lot of GREAT analysis happens here. I’ve learned more from this forum about weather, and now pandemics, than I had ever dreamt to have known from people a hell of a lot smarter than me.

 

That said, there’s a ton of baggage that goes along with it. I’m emotionally attached to the weather just like anyone else but I like to think that mindfully trying to see the forest through the preferential trees is a skill that needs cultivated. It’s easy to end up complicating the relatively uncomplicated situation when that noise creeps its way in. WUACDIAWC...

[Jesse]

Looks like the Euro has come around to the EPS with a cooler look for next week. Still pleasant with highs around 70, though.

 

Also picking up on another very wet system just in time for the following weekend.

[Jesse]

It would seem PDX could be on track for 90 today.

 

A noontime temperature of 80 is generally a favorable sign.

[Esquimalt]

Looking like quite the light show along coast Saturday morning. I've got some family in Oceanside so it looks like they are in for quite the show.

 

Screen Shot 2020-05-28 at 11.43.52 AM.png

How frequent would the green over victoria mean in terms of lightning?

[Phil]

Neat, do you really want me to list all of the other airmasses that have set monthly records in certain locations in the past century? We've got all day/week/month/year.

 

Your previous iceagenow escapades notwithstanding, it's funny seeing you so touchy when confronted with the obvious truth that cold extremes are still dwindling and are basically diet versions of what came in the 19th and 20th centuries. Your "new volcanic like normal" nonsense rings especially hollow when we're still sitting at near all time record high global temperatures and we don't even have the benefit of a major El Nino.

 

What do global temperatures have to do with this? I get “touchy” when people deny objective reality. Your implications are demonstrably false.

 

The US had never once recorded a 500mb temperature of -40C during the month of May until 2020. Not in the radiosonde records back to WWII, not in the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis back to the 19th century, not anywhere.

 

Furthermore, it had the largest standard deviation ever recorded in terms of 500mb temperatures over the US, for any airmass, warm or cold, at any time of year.

[Phil]

By all metrics, in was the most impressive upper level airmass ever observed in May over the US. And probably the most anomalous upper level airmass ever observed in terms of the standard deviation from seasonal norms.

 

It broke 500mb records from the month of *December*. That is unheard of. It occurred during the second week of the month, too. Not the first few days.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It would seem PDX could be on track for 90 today.

 

A noontime temperature of 80 is generally a favorable sign.

HIO already up to 83 at noon.

[Omegaraptor]

By all metrics, in was the most impressive upper level airmass ever observed in May over the US. And probably the most anomalous upper level airmass ever observed in terms of the statistics standard deviation from seasonal norms.

 

It broke 500mb records from the month of *December*. That is unheard of. It occurred during the second week of the month, too. Not the first few days.

 

What I think Justin is getting at is, why has the frequency of top tier Arctic airmasses in the western US dropped significantly since the 1970s, while out in the East it has remained relatively unchanged?

 

2009-10 and 2014-15 were top tier historical events in the eastern US. Why hasn't the West matched its historic greats such as 1936-37, 1948-49, 1949-50, or 1968-69 in such a long time?

[Phil]

Seems like every year there is a new big exciting thing Phil is talking about that will eventually bring some sort of earth shattering regime change with colder global temperatures. Been happening for about a decade now. And all the while, the planet has just steadily warmed in the background.

I never mentioned global temperatures. You did.

 

I made a factual statement describing how upper level thermodynamic boundary conditions resemble those in post-volcanic years, and you’re all upset at me over global tropospheric temperature trends and radiatively-forced volcanic cooling. Lol.

 

I make a factual statement about the anomalous upper level airmass a few weeks ago, and you guys respond with irrelevant crap about surface thermometer records over long periods of time, as if that’s somehow relevant to the point I’m making.

 

And you say *I’m* the one spinning false narratives? Give me a break.

[GobBluth]

HIO already up to 83 at noon.

overachieving high temps as usual.

[AlTahoe]

27 of the last 32 months have been below average in Bozeman based on 1981-2010 averages.

 

I'm on the warming climate train as well but explain that one to me especially as there has been a ton of building/parking garages put in all around that site since the 80's and 90's.

There was a notable shift in our climate as well starting around that time. It felt like winter was gone forever during the Dec 2011 - Dec 2015 period here in Tahoe. Yet Feb 2019 was the second coldest Feb in Tahoe City behind only Feb 1911. We also haven't recorded a 90F summer temp in 2 years. During the drought years we were averaging like 6-12 90F days a summer. 

[Phil]

What I think Justin is getting at is, why has the frequency of top tier Arctic airmasses in the western US dropped significantly since the 1970s, while out in the East it has remained relatively unchanged?

 

2009-10 and 2014-15 were top tier historical events in the eastern US. Why hasn't the West matched its historic greats such as 1936-37, 1948-49, 1949-50, or 1968-69 in such a long time?

What does this have to do with my original post(s)? Why should I answer for claims I never made and aren’t even adjacent to my original post?

 

I merely posted satellite measurements of the global lower stratosphere, noting the anomalous temperature spike in the absence of volcanic forcing, and the fact it was dynamically driven via an anomalous evolution of the system state.

 

Then Justine builds a snowman argument re: radiative-aerosol-forced volcanic cooling, all-the-while completely misunderstanding how it works (it actually helps warm the middle latitudes during the winter, see 1991/92).