May 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW

[Farmboy]

That weekend storm is looking like a gullywasher on the 12z GFS. Could be fun and climate changey.

Wonderful, should be great in Rhodedendron, OR where I am now.

[Front Ranger]

Ooh, Justine.

[Deweydog]

This garbage is why no mets post here. I never mentioned global temperatures. You guys did.

 

I made a factual statement describing how upper level thermodynamic boundary conditions resemble those in post-volcanic years, and you guys rant about global tropospheric temperature trends and radiatively-forced volcanic cooling. Lol..

 

I make a factual statement about the anomalous upper level airmass a few weeks ago, and you guys respond with irrelevant crap about surface thermometer records over long periods of time, as if that’s somehow relevant to the point I’m making.

 

And you say *I’m* the one spinning false narratives? Give me a break.

This post on the other hand is going to bring pro mets in by the C130 load.

[Phil]

And FYI, upper level cold extremes have not decreased, at least not across the NE US. Maybe in some areas they have decreased, but not in others.

 

The coldest 850mb temperature ever recorded at DCA/IAD occurred in Feb 2015, with records back to 1948. The coldest 850mb air masses ever observed in May and February have both occurred in the last 5 years.

 

For reference, there are no #1 cold records from the 1960s, and besides March 1950, there are none from the 1950s either. The 1948-1976 period had a grand total of three #1 cold records at 850mb. In just the last 7 years, there have already been two, with several close finishes.

[Phil]

This post on the other hand is going to bring pro mets in by the C130 load.

Fair enough. Edited.

 

I’ve probably been a d*ckhead lately. I’m just tired of answering for claims I never made, on multiple fronts, from people (apparently) uninterested in the topic(s) and/or scientific material.

[MossMan]

Looks like my area misses the light show...Too bad.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

overachieving high temps as usual.

Vernonia, Beaverton and Camas already up to 86 as of 1pm.

 

[Omegaraptor]

Vernonia, Beaverton and Camas already up to 86 as of 1pm.

 

 

HIO and PDX are at 88.

[Front Ranger]

And FYI, upper level cold extremes have not decreased, at least not across the NE US. Maybe in some areas they have decreased, but not in others.

 

The coldest 850mb temperature ever recorded at DCA/IAD occurred in Feb 2015, with records back to 1948. The coldest 850mb air masses ever observed in May and February have both occurred in the last 5 years.

 

For reference, there are no #1 cold records from the 1960s, and besides March 1950, there are none from the 1950s either. The 1948-1976 period had a grand total of three #1 cold records at 850mb. In just the last 7 years, there have already been two, with several close finishes.

 

It is funny how people choose to focus on 850 temps or surface temps, depending on what climate narrative they are selling. 

 

There have been times where Justin has been much more focused on one or the other, depending mainly on which one makes the current climate appear more impotent.

[Phil]

It is funny how people choose to focus on 850 temps or surface temps, depending on what climate narrative they are selling.

 

There have been times where Justin has been much more focused on one or the other, depending mainly on which one makes the current climate appear more impotent.

I’ve always preferred upper level temps. Surface temps can vary widely over topography, are more prone to contamination, and are only measured at a few widely-dispersed points on what is a structurally complex and thermodynamically-intricate surface/plane, with a complete absence of data every except for where observing stations are located. And again, land use changes/urbanization have already corrupted the majority of those records.

 

Surface temperatures don’t tell you much about the large scale picture, when you think about it. These surface stations were never designed with the intent of measuring long term climate change. People speak confidently about our efforts to fully initialize, homogenize, and spatially extrapolate/interpolate surface station data through which climate trends can be derived, but given the fact revisions to those datasets have exceeded previously published 99.7% confidence intervals on *multiple occasions*, it’s hard to take that narrative seriously anymore.

[GeorgeWx]

Vernonia, Beaverton and Camas already up to 86 as of 1pm.

 

Most locations should reach 90

[Frontal Snowsquall]

HIO and PDX are at 88.

Most locations should reach 90

Temps as of 3pm. Vernonia, Beaverton and Vancouver have hit 90.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Springfield at 86F and EUG at 85F.

[The Swamp]

Really hot or super soggy.

[seattleweatherguy]

nws sees thunderstorms focused on the cascades. any chance we see some drift over to the west to the puget sound or this not the right pattern?

[The Swamp]

I want some t storms in the swamp. They are so cool. The rumble is mystic. The light show can be hypnotic.

[Omegaraptor]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[TacomaWaWx]

77 here...doesn’t look like we will hit 80 today.

[TacomaWaWx]

I want some t storms in the swamp. They are so cool. The rumble is mystic. The light show can be hypnotic.

Did you happen to see any of the thunderstorms on cinco de Mayo this year? Those were some decent thunderstorms.

[TT-SEA]

77 here...doesn’t look like we will hit 80 today.

 

 

82 here... and 80 at SEA.

[Omegaraptor]

92/50 at Hillsboro today, 42F diurnal range.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

92/50 at Hillsboro today, 42F diurnal range.

93 for the high out here in Troutdale today. Broke the old record for the day set back in 1972.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON 510 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2020 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT TROUTDALE OREGON... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 93 DEGREES WAS SET AT TROUTDALE OREGON TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 91 SET IN 1972.

[MossMan]

Had a high of 78 and a low of 50. Currently 74.

[James Jones]

[Front Ranger]

I want some t storms in the swamp. They are so cool. The rumble is mystic. The light show can be hypnotic.

Swamp poetry.

[Requiem]

9 degrees short of a record at PDX. ☃ Very sad. 

 

I hope it hits 110 this summer to make up for it!!! ♨

 

That's a lot of emojis...

[TacomaWaWx]

77/57 here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

88F for a hi in Springfield. South valley was widespread upper-80s.

[Winterdog]

81/49 here, currently 73

[GeorgeWx]

Temps as of 3pm. Vernonia, Beaverton and Vancouver have hit 90.

 

I called it. All locations got to 90 or higher.

[GeorgeWx]

[Blizzard777]

The 90s are back!

I’m a 80s dude !  

80/53 today

currently 72* 

[GeorgeWx]

Really hot or super soggy.

Hot and soggy is Florida weather heh

[Blizzard777]

Looks like my area misses the light show...Too bad.

Might need to chase with car! Just let the wife know your going to the store for some milk.  Don’t tell her what store though! 

[Front Ranger]

A few years Portland was forecasted to reach 112 and 113 for a few days. Then the wildfire smoke came and kept the temperatures down and it didn’t make it. The 107 is low hanging fruit. It will fall soon:

 

A source of controversy in these parts...I don't think anyone believes it would have topped 110 without the smoke, but perhaps the all-time record was in reach.

 

I wouldn't call 107 low hanging fruit. 102 in June is, though.

[Blizzard777]

A touch humid today. Anyone going out East to chase?

So close!  Might be enjoyable

[BLI snowman]

What do global temperatures have to do with this? I get “touchy” when people deny objective reality. Your implications are demonstrably false.

 

The US had never once recorded a 500mb temperature of -40C during the month of May until 2020. Not in the radiosonde records back to WWII, not in the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis back to the 19th century, not anywhere.

 

Furthermore, it had the largest standard deviation ever recorded in terms of 500mb temperatures over the US, for any airmass, warm or cold, at any time of year.

 

Implications like the U.S. and the world at large continue to fry? I didn't realize that wasn't an objective reality.

 

And I'd love to see a breakdown showing how much more impressive the early May D.C trough was than something like December 23-25, 1983. I'm sure you'll have plentiful data as always when pressed.

[BLI snowman]

It is funny how people choose to focus on 850 temps or surface temps, depending on what climate narrative they are selling. 

 

There have been times where Justin has been much more focused on one or the other, depending mainly on which one makes the current climate appear more impotent.

 

 

Surface temps do a plenty good job of that all on their own. Have you looked at a global temperature anomaly map recently?

 

It's funny how hard a select and predictable few on here fight the simple point that the 21st century climate has been abysmal at producing cold of significance relative to the previous two centuries. It almost seems like it should be common sense, so I feel a little weird about having to be such a broken record, but you guys just persist year after year with this stuff.

[Front Ranger]

Implications like the U.S. and the world at large continue to fry? I didn't realize that wasn't an objective reality.

 

And I'd love to see a breakdown showing how much more impressive the early May D.C trough was than something like December 23-25, 1983. I'm sure you'll have plentiful data as always when pressed.

 

Most the U.S. hasn't exactly fried the past couple years. Phil kinda has, though!