Hawkeye Posted June 7, 2020 Report Share Posted June 7, 2020 I'm feeling better this morning about cashing in on the heavy rain, but it's still not locked in. The 12z UK actually has us close to the west edge now. Meanwhile, the ICON has all the heavy rain west of me. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 7, 2020 Report Share Posted June 7, 2020 The Canadian hits eastern Iowa, but has less rain... only 1.5-2.0" across the area. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 7, 2020 Report Share Posted June 7, 2020 Looks like I might end up getting some beneficial rains from Cristobal afterall....... NOAA: The wind shift that comes with this troughing will also bring anincreasing southwest wind as this system is actually deepening againas it merges into the mid latitude troughing. The forecast windfields would support 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph or better(especially into Wednesday with better diurnal mixing). Moisturequality will also improve considerably as tropical moisture ispulled into the area and PWATs increase to around 2 inches. Thiswill help maintain rain chances into Wednesday evening as center ofthe mid latitude system pivots into the region around initial extra-tropical low pressure center and bring a cold front in from thewest/southwest. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 7, 2020 Report Share Posted June 7, 2020 12z models Euro UK GFS 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted June 7, 2020 Report Share Posted June 7, 2020 Too many trees in the way to get the whole shot, but a full rainbow around the sun at the moment. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted June 7, 2020 Report Share Posted June 7, 2020 Madison, MN in SW MN just hit 100F temp. It’s only 79F here in the Cities. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted June 7, 2020 Report Share Posted June 7, 2020 Looks like an E IA to C WI deluge from Cristobal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 7, 2020 Report Share Posted June 7, 2020 Looks like an E IA to C WI deluge from Cristobal. It's racing through the area, though, which will limit the deluge. 2-3" of rain should not be a huge deal here. A few spots in eastern Iowa recently received heavy rain from thunderstorms, but my yard can use a good soaking. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted June 7, 2020 Report Share Posted June 7, 2020 Today 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted June 7, 2020 Report Share Posted June 7, 2020 Wow models are going crazy for eastern Iowa! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted June 7, 2020 Report Share Posted June 7, 2020 https://www.tswails.com/terry-s-blogA very rare event possible for eastern Iowa! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 7, 2020 Report Share Posted June 7, 2020 https://www.tswails.com/terry-s-blogA very rare event possible for eastern Iowa!Yup if the center tracks anywhere in IA it will be the first time since 1900 for a tropical system. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 7, 2020 Report Share Posted June 7, 2020 How many times have you received 1+" from storms this spring? I'm still waiting for my first. I haven't even come close.Prolly 3 or 4??? Not exactly sure but it seems like a few times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 It's racing through the area, though, which will limit the deluge. 2-3" of rain should not be a huge deal here. A few spots in eastern Iowa recently received heavy rain from thunderstorms, but my yard can use a good soaking.Yeah good point. This thing really takes off once it’s picked up by the trough. 2-3” seems a bit low to me though, especially given the record PWATs in the area. We’ll see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 What a hot way to start June of 2020 around here as the heat streak continued in Omaha today. We hit a high temperature of 96 degrees. This marks the seventh day in a row that we have hit 92 degrees or above, with an 8th likely tomorrow before rain and cooler weather move in on Tuesday. Also this marks the hottest start to the month of June in recorded history for Omaha... It's not too often that I have to put the sprinklers on full blast the first week of June, however this has been the case all weekend as my yard is already showing signs of heat stress. Hopefully this was just a blip and not a sign of things to come this summer around here. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 Looks like both NAM’s shifted west a bit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 Flood watches extended up through MO and into E IA/SW WI...Cedar Rapids in the bullseye! Just checked the Euro/EPS and it basically agrees with the placement of the heavy rain potential. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 The weather pattern across the nation today is about as adverse as one will see during this time of year. We have summer snow falling in parts of the N Rockies this morning while a tropical storm that is heading N out of the GOM. Current conditions at West Yellowstone (KWYS)Lat: 44.68333°NLon: 111.11667°WElev: 6644ft.Light Snow32°F0°C 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 For some reason, the GFS is trending away from other models. While models like the Euro and UK keep a tight low and precip shield moving up through eastern Iowa, the GFS is losing the low a bit and spreading out the rain. It also lifts the heavy rain up through central Iowa, not eastern. Eastern Iowa gets much less than what the Euro and UK are showing. Edit: Meanwhile, the 3k NAM has shifted much of the rain EAST of Cedar Rapids. The rain shield is less organized in general, too. At the same time, the 12k NAM has much of the rain WEST of Cedar Rapids in a more organized band. Sheesh. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 55F w sunny skies Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 Cristobal not looking too promising for my area, but hopefully it can give my locale some rainfall. It will be a quick mover. Afterwards, sunny skies return w much cooler air arriving. Highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s to start off the weekend, b4 a slow warm up arrives. Only back to near normal. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 MPX must be discounting the Euro for some reason. 1.5-2" of rain in the forecast through Wed. Euro only showing 0.3". Meanwhile, heading up to 95F today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 For some reason, the GFS is trending away from other models. While models like the Euro and UK keep a tight low and precip shield moving up through eastern Iowa, the GFS is losing the low a bit and spreading out the rain. It also lifts the heavy rain up through central Iowa, not eastern. Eastern Iowa gets much less than what the Euro and UK are showing. Edit: Meanwhile, the 3k NAM has shifted much of the rain EAST of Cedar Rapids. The rain shield is less organized in general, too. At the same time, the 12k NAM has much of the rain WEST of Cedar Rapids in a more organized band. Sheesh. It's like we're tracking a snowstorm in January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 Extreme NW Minnesota got absolutely pounded with heavy rain last night. NWS says up to 7 inches in spots. I was watching the radar last night as the radar just kept back filling dark red on a line from SW to NE. I am happy to only have gotten about 1 inch last night. Hoping to dodge heavy rain tonight. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 The 12z NAMs (3k and 12k) continue to confuse. The 12k is weak, washed-out, and west. Much of eastern Iowa struggles to get an inch. The 3k also continues to weaken (spread between Cristobal and the incoming upper wave continues to grow, with less phasing), but its precip is almost all east. Anyone WEST of Cedar Rapids struggles to get an inch. You'd think models would have a better idea as the system approaches. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 Unreal.... the HRRR looks very similar to the 12k NAM. Cristobal basically gets sheared out and the moisture yanked n/nw across Iowa. The blob of heavy rain is gone. Now it's just scattered pockets, with much of eastern Iowa struggling to get an inch. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 Unreal.... the HRRR looks very similar to the 12k NAM. Cristobal basically gets sheared out and the moisture yanked n/nw across Iowa. The blob of heavy rain is gone. Now it's just scattered pockets, with much of eastern Iowa struggling to get an inch.The HRRR typically performs poorly in this time frame. If the Euro and UK make large scale changes then maybe it’s into something. You’d think models would handle a storm like this a little better but apparently not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 GFS is further west as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 12z GFS is not good. Looks like a few of the CAMS are either shearing out the precipitation or trending a bit west. I want 1" not 3+". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 12z GFS is not good. Looks like a few of the CAMS are either shearing out the precipitation or trending a bit west. I want 1" not 3+". Wierd run it gets my place good 1 county west bone dry. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 Ukie and GEM with a pull to the west but not as much as some of the other models. Still well east of the GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 Some models are taking the low right over Cedar Rapids. Meanwhile, the UK turns it northeast across Illinois. It is a total mystery how much rain my area will get. I could get 0.50". I could get 3.00". I'm betting on the lower end. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 The Euro just shifted the best rain EAST of Cedar Rapids. LOL How can the models be so different within 24 hours of the event? Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 The Euro just shifted the best rain EAST of Cedar Rapids. LOL This is comical. But, I'm not surprised. That developing low pressure to the west of the remnants and the resulting interaction between the two seem to be the cause of the discrepancies. Similar to a potential phaser in winter. I guess our first tropical system in the Midwest in the last 100+ years is going to be a nowcast. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 Wisconsin seems like the winner as of today w a direct blow w hvy rain n wind! Things could change, but so far, its aiming for that region as "Bullseye." I just hope I can get in on some of the tropical rains. Ground needs it! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 12z models Euro UK GFS Canadian 12k NAM 3k NAM HRRR v4 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 The WPC just flipped to the GFS/12kNAM scenario, taking the main band of heavy rain up through central Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 Some models are showing a secondary band to the west. That must be from the developing L coming in behind Cristobal. Should be some good winds with that too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 Flash Flood Watch has been expanded west to cover my area now. 2-4" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted June 8, 2020 Report Share Posted June 8, 2020 18z HRRR with a 980 in W WI. Wowzers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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