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June 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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It's a beautiful late afternoon over here.  Clouds have mostly cleared the area.  We are now sitting at 69/55 with a nice breeze.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I thought just a week or two ago you were looking forward to some summer like heat and humidity.

 

Some nice storms are headed your way.

Summer temps yes, NOT humidity! I hate humid days combined w warmth. If its a little humid, then I guess that's fine, but anything full blown is not acceptable by me. Cant wait to be in Greece again and get away from this disgusting climate in the Summertime.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Its nasty outside now!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Hvy rain was the only thing that came outta these storms.  Thankfully, no tornadoes or damaging hail. Easily picked up near .60" or more. Grass needed it!!!!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, mostly cloudy w temps at 69F.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This is a bust for me and only me. Everywhere else is getting dumped on. That's cool.

 

No legitimate rain chances over the next 10 days.

I feel ya. The 2-5” flash flood watch here turned into .16”. Though I feel like I probably had a bit more than that at my place. I wish I had my PWS here.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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I lost power yesterday around 2 PM and it came back on at 10:30. The only damage in my area was a lot of small branches and leaves blown off trees. I did see either a power, old phone or cable line that was down just down the street. (that was not the cause of the power outage in the area) I also recorded a total of 0.70" of rain fall. At this time it is clear here and 57. The last reading at GRR was clear and 58.

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I should also note that there were a lot of trees down access much of central lower Michigan and I think at one time there were over 170,000 customers without power. I just checked and there are still 147,171 customers without power. At 7 AM there were still over 30,000 without power in the Grand Rapids metro area.

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I should also note that there were a lot of trees down access much of central lower Michigan and I think at one time there were over 170,000 customers without power. I just checked and there are still 147,171 customers without power. At 7 AM there were still over 30,000 without power in the Grand Rapids metro area.

Yesterday's severe wx outbreak in lower MI was probably the best set up in a LONG time for you guys.  I remember Jaster commenting on this and how long its been since lower MI had a legit severe wx outbreak.  Glad to hear you and Niko spared the worst of the storms.  Meantime, a lot of you will enjoy a nice stretch of a cooler temps and lower DP's this weekend.  The smell of bon fires will be in the air...I sure miss that part of summer!

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The JMA weeklies are showing a pool of cooler air around the GL's for Week 2, while the rest of the Sub remains rather toasty and dry.

 

Week 2...

 

Y202006.D1012_gl2.png

 

Y202006.D1012_gl0.png

 

 

Week 3-4...is the Monsoon going to fire up towards the end of the month around these parts???  If the JMA is right, then the mean ridge will lift north and west allowing for a mores seasonable pattern to take shape across the central/southern Plains and possibly escape the Heat.  We'll see if that verifies.

 

 

Y202006.D1012_gl2.png

 

Y202006.D1012_gl0.png

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We are now one third of the way thru June 2020 and at Grand Rapids the mean so far this month is 70.0° that is good for a departure of +4.5. The high for the month so far is 93 and the low for the month is 42. And there has been a reported 1.45" of rain fall.

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Yesterday's severe wx outbreak in lower MI was probably the best set up in a LONG time for you guys.  I remember Jaster commenting on this and how long its been since lower MI had a legit severe wx outbreak.  Glad to hear you and Niko spared the worst of the storms.  Meantime, a lot of you will enjoy a nice stretch of a cooler temps and lower DP's this weekend.  The smell of bon fires will be in the air...I sure miss that part of summer!

Speaking of Jaster it now has been a long time since he/she has posted on both this site and another site that he/she posted on. I hope that Jaster is doing ok. 

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Latest 12z Euro run in consecutive runs is suggesting a Blow Torch to start early next week first in the plains, then work its way east towards the GL's!  First 100's of the season are possible in NE.  The heat is more transient across the Upper MW/MW/GL's while the Plains will bake.

 

 

 

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Latest 12z Euro run in consecutive runs is suggesting a Blow Torch to start early next week first in the plains, then work its way east towards the GL's!  First 100's of the season are possible in NE.  The heat is more transient across the Upper MW/MW/GL's while the Plains will bake.

Send help.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Well, it doesn't happen often, but the Euro/EPS is trending towards the GFS/GEFS for later next week and lining up with the LRC as a more active pattern sets up around Father's Day weekend.  As of now, it looks like the heat may be transient for mostly everyone on the board with the hottest temps across NE/KS early in the week followed by a strong summer CF and storms.

 

00z GEFS suggesting a pattern that resembles stalled frontal boundaries heading into week 2.  This is the type of pattern I foresee whereby you can get a ton of rain, of course, it may end up being isolated as is the case in summer patterns.  Needless to say, the signal is for wetter conditions where its getting rather dry right now across the Plains.  I'm sure some your lawns and gardens may need a healthy drink!  FWIW, the EPS is nearly identical in the placement of the wetter conditions.

 

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

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Too early to think about the 2020-2021 Winter???  Nah, never to early to take a sneak peak at what the models are showing.  The JAMSTEC and NMME are showing a similar precipitation pattern across the CONUS illustrating a classic La Nina pattern.  Should it hold, time will tell, but the LONG range signal is there that the aforementioned La Nina is almost a certainty right now.

 

 

 

A very early look at winter 2020-21 reveals a classical La Niña pattern.
∙ Significant dryness western U.S.
∙ Worst of winter Midwest
∙ Drier Southeast U.S.

 

Both the JAMSTEC and NMME are seeing a dry western U.S. and an active central CONUS for the most part.  IMO, if this pattern is to take shape, we definitely need to see the blocking in the high lats to keep the storm track farther south.  The last few years have lacked a consistent -NAO pattern and this needs to change if we are to see a fun season next cold season.  Can the start of the 2020's be the decadal shift???  I certainly hope so.

 

The JAMSTEC finally seeing the La Nina SST pattern and the warm pool hugging the NW NAMER coastline....we need this transpire to have a good chance for seeing a cold winter.

 

The Euro Seasonal does not have a great start to winter and literally shows a repeat of last December...Blow Torch.

 

 

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Next week and beyond, the op GFS has a stormy pattern through the area.  The Euro has nothing.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Tornado on the ground up near the international border approaching Beltrami Island’s place. Pretty massive discrete cell.

Summary of this Tornado. 

https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/hot-south-stormy-north-again-june-8-2020.html

 

It couldn't have found a more remote area to hit.  Funny enough my 90 year old neighbor was born not far from this location.  The settlements and homesteads in the area have long since been abandoned, only left over cemeteries along forest roads are left.

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Nice cool airmass in pl. Lows tanite dropping into the 40s and would not be surprised if upper 30s show up in spots Tomorrows highs not getting outta the low to mid 60s. Another cold nite shaping up as well.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, a cool 62F under mostly cloudy skies and breezy conditions. Feels like Autumn out there.

 

Btw: last nite, a hvy shower w gusty winds came. Dint last too long. No thunder or lightning. Felt refreshing tbh.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Next week is looking like temps will soar to near 90F by Thursday and into Friday w humidity returning. Ugh! Hopefully, some storms to go w that!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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There may have been some scattered frost up north last night. It did get down into the mid to upper 30's in northern lower and even down into the low 30's in parts of the UP. The coldest major station I see is a 32 at Ironwood in the UP and in lower a 36 at Grayling. Here at my house the low was 48. The current temperature here is 49 with clear skies. 

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Got a decent burst of heavy rain that lasted about five minutes. Anything helps seeing that the grass is brown right now.

 

I leave for Fargo in 2 weeks.

I remember you mentioned last year you were going to relocate.  Is that the plan still?

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I remember you mentioned last year you were going to relocate.  Is that the plan still?

I'll be in Fargo for a couple years, then I'll either be staying there or going back to Lincoln more than likely. This stint in Ohio was never going to last long.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I think we just saw the GFS/GEFS score a coupe with the pattern later next week into the following weekend.  While there is an initial burst of Heat in the Plains as temps soar to near 100F for OMA by Wed, a summer time CF straddles across the central Plains/MW late next week as rounds of storms fire up through Father's Day weekend.  Last nights 00z Euro finally showing a lot of precip for many of you.

 

I'm sure many of those peeps across KS/MO region are liking these trends...

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

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As we approach the mid part of the calendar year, the long awaited La Nina is starting to settle in and take over across the equatorial PAC.  Those are some chilly waters making its way to the surface.

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

sstaanim.gif

 

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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I saw a lot of mets over the past couple days rushing towards the Euro/EPS and pushing the heat and dryness.  Glad to see the pattern turn more active as we move through cycle 5 of the LRC.  As is the case in summer patterns, there will be hits and misses, you just have to be lucky and be in the right spot.

 

00z GEFS through Father's Day weekend....

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_36.png

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Attm, its 54F w partly cloudy skies. Highs not getting any higher than 60 to 65 max and lows  between 40-45F. The extended looks bone-dry! Sprinklers working full-time. :lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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