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June 2020 Observations and Discussion


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I'm on your turf today. Indeed it is miserable.

Last day in Ohio. I leave in the early morning tomorrow. Pretty nice out. 84.0*F.

Mother Nature just zapped the old Sears Tower this morning, yes, I know another corporation bought it and took it over but the name "Willis Tower" doesn't jive with me...

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DMX/DVN maps are showing the heaviest rain through Cedar Rapids, but models are farther west.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Cristobal looks as of now that it will miss my area. Maybe some scattered rainshowers from it. Does not look significant. Looks like Wisconsin will be the winner w this one and small portions of other states surrounding it.

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Trees uprooted in my hometown (NY) as friends and family told me that real nasty storms rolled on through yesterday w damaging winds, vivid lightning and torrential downpours, along w 1" hail. Lasted only a few minutes. Damage was done though. No fatalities from falling trees.

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The NAM is back to eastern Iowa again for the heaviest rain.  It's going to have to rain pretty heavily to reach the 2+" totals because it only lasts about five hours.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The NAM is back to eastern Iowa again for the heaviest rain. It's going to have to rain pretty heavily to reach the 2+" totals because it only lasts about five hours.

Whip out your magnet, this one is coming for ya! I remember last year when I experienced Olga’s remnants and it rained like straight out of the Amazon jungles. Hope you and others get to experience this storm.

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I'm feeling better this morning about cashing in on the heavy rain, but it's still not locked in.  The 12z UK actually has us close to the west edge now.  Meanwhile, the ICON has all the heavy rain west of me.

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Canadian hits eastern Iowa, but has less rain... only 1.5-2.0" across the area.

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looks like I might end up getting some beneficial rains from Cristobal afterall....... :D

 

NOAA:

 

The wind shift that comes with this troughing will also bring an
increasing southwest wind as this system is actually deepening again
as it merges into the mid latitude troughing. The forecast wind
fields would support 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph or better
(especially into Wednesday with better diurnal mixing). Moisture
quality will also improve considerably as tropical moisture is
pulled into the area and PWATs increase to around 2 inches. This
will help maintain rain chances into Wednesday evening as center of
the mid latitude system pivots into the region around initial extra-
tropical low pressure center and bring a cold front in from the
west/southwest.

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12z models

 

Euro

 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

 

UK

 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

 

GFS

 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looks like an E IA to C WI deluge from Cristobal.

 

It's racing through the area, though, which will limit the deluge.  2-3" of rain should not be a huge deal here.  A few spots in eastern Iowa recently received heavy rain from thunderstorms, but my yard can use a good soaking.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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How many times have you received 1+" from storms this spring? I'm still waiting for my first. I haven't even come close.

Prolly 3 or 4??? Not exactly sure but it seems like a few times.
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It's racing through the area, though, which will limit the deluge. 2-3" of rain should not be a huge deal here. A few spots in eastern Iowa recently received heavy rain from thunderstorms, but my yard can use a good soaking.

Yeah good point. This thing really takes off once it’s picked up by the trough. 2-3” seems a bit low to me though, especially given the record PWATs in the area. We’ll see.

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What a hot way to start June of 2020 around here as the heat streak continued in Omaha today. We hit a high temperature of 96 degrees. This marks the seventh day in a row that we have hit 92 degrees or above, with an 8th likely tomorrow before rain and cooler weather move in on Tuesday. Also this marks the hottest start to the month of June in recorded history for Omaha...

 

It's not too often that I have to put the sprinklers on full blast the first week of June, however this has been the case all weekend as my yard is already showing signs of heat stress. Hopefully this was just a blip and not a sign of things to come this summer around here.  

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Flood watches extended up through MO and into E IA/SW WI...Cedar Rapids in the bullseye!  Just checked the Euro/EPS and it basically agrees with the placement of the heavy rain potential.

 

 

1.png

2.png

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The weather pattern across the nation today is about as adverse as one will see during this time of year.  We have summer snow falling in parts of the N Rockies this morning while a tropical storm that is heading N out of the GOM.

 

Current conditions at West Yellowstone (KWYS)Lat: 44.68333°NLon: 111.11667°WElev: 6644ft.
sn.png

Light Snow

32°F

0°C

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For some reason, the GFS is trending away from other models.  While models like the Euro and UK keep a tight low and precip shield moving up through eastern Iowa, the GFS is losing the low a bit and spreading out the rain.  It also lifts the heavy rain up through central Iowa, not eastern.  Eastern Iowa gets much less than what the Euro and UK are showing.

 

Edit:  Meanwhile, the 3k NAM has shifted much of the rain EAST of Cedar Rapids.  The rain shield is less organized in general, too.  At the same time, the 12k NAM has much of the rain WEST of Cedar Rapids in a more organized band.  Sheesh.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Cristobal not looking too promising for my area, but hopefully it can give my locale some rainfall. It will be a quick mover. Afterwards, sunny skies return w much cooler air arriving. Highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s to start off the weekend, b4 a slow warm up arrives. Only back to near normal.

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For some reason, the GFS is trending away from other models.  While models like the Euro and UK keep a tight low and precip shield moving up through eastern Iowa, the GFS is losing the low a bit and spreading out the rain.  It also lifts the heavy rain up through central Iowa, not eastern.  Eastern Iowa gets much less than what the Euro and UK are showing.

 

Edit:  Meanwhile, the 3k NAM has shifted much of the rain EAST of Cedar Rapids.  The rain shield is less organized in general, too.  At the same time, the 12k NAM has much of the rain WEST of Cedar Rapids in a more organized band.  Sheesh.

 

It's like we're tracking a snowstorm in January.  ;)

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Extreme NW Minnesota got absolutely pounded with heavy rain last night.  NWS says up to 7 inches in spots.  I was watching the radar last night as the radar just kept back filling dark red on a line from SW to NE.  I am happy to only have gotten about 1 inch last night.  Hoping to dodge heavy rain tonight.

rain.JPG

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The 12z NAMs (3k and 12k) continue to confuse.  The 12k is weak, washed-out, and west.  Much of eastern Iowa struggles to get an inch.  The 3k also continues to weaken (spread between Cristobal and the incoming upper wave continues to grow, with less phasing), but its precip is almost all east.  Anyone WEST of Cedar Rapids struggles to get an inch.  You'd think models would have a better idea as the system approaches.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Unreal.... the HRRR looks very similar to the 12k NAM.  Cristobal basically gets sheared out and the moisture yanked n/nw across Iowa.  The blob of heavy rain is gone.  Now it's just scattered pockets, with much of eastern Iowa struggling to get an inch.

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Unreal.... the HRRR looks very similar to the 12k NAM.  Cristobal basically gets sheared out and the moisture yanked n/nw across Iowa.  The blob of heavy rain is gone.  Now it's just scattered pockets, with much of eastern Iowa struggling to get an inch.

The HRRR typically performs poorly in this time frame. If the Euro and UK make large scale changes then maybe it’s into something. You’d think models would handle a storm like this a little better but apparently not.

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12z GFS is not good. Looks like a few of the CAMS are either shearing out the precipitation or trending a bit west. I want 1" not 3+". 

Wierd run it gets my place good 1 county west bone dry.

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Some models are taking the low right over Cedar Rapids.  Meanwhile, the UK turns it northeast across Illinois.  It is a total mystery how much rain my area will get.  I could get 0.50".  I could get 3.00".  I'm betting on the lower end.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Euro just shifted the best rain EAST of Cedar Rapids. LOL   How can the models be so different within 24 hours of the event?

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Euro just shifted the best rain EAST of Cedar Rapids. LOL

 

This is comical. But, I'm not surprised. That developing low pressure to the west of the remnants and the resulting interaction between the two seem to be the cause of the discrepancies. Similar to a potential phaser in winter. I guess our first tropical system in the Midwest in the last 100+ years is going to be a nowcast. 

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Wisconsin seems like the winner as of today w a direct blow w hvy rain n wind! Things could change, but so far, its aiming for that region as "Bullseye." I just hope I can get in on some of the tropical rains. Ground needs it!

150402_key_messages_sm.png

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12z models

 

Euro

 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

 

UK

 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

 

GFS

 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

 

Canadian

 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

 

12k NAM

 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

 

3k NAM

 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

 

HRRR v4

 

hrrr4_2020-06-08-12Z_048_49.556_255.067_

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The WPC just flipped to the GFS/12kNAM scenario, taking the main band of heavy rain up through central Iowa.

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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