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June 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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For the record... I have said many times that there is nothing too unusual about this June based on historical averages. I also think normal June weather around here can be pretty disappointing in terms of summer expectations and its often my least favorite month because of that disparity. Not sure what else to say... but Jesse will continue to pound on it until everyone loves 55-degree rain in the summer. And that will never happen so its best to just let it go. People spend all winter lamenting how bad our climate is for cold and snow as well. We don't have to love every aspect of climo.

You are “kicking and screaming” apparently.
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Even with these stoic liquid anomalies soil moisture remains average to below average.

 

 

Screen Shot 2020-06-15 at 12.48.10 PM.png

At least it’s not a sea of orange and red this time!

 

Notable improvement over the last two weeks, as well.

 

z4pcyVs.gif

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You are “kicking and screaming” apparently.

 

 

These long streaks of wet and chilly days in June do leave me feeling a little depressed.   Kicking and screaming is pointless of course.

 

11 days with rain in a row and very little sun in that period.    Unfortunately its not that uncommon... June troughing usually comes in long streaks.   It certainly makes me appreciate the sunny, dry days which are also climo in June.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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FWIW... the 12Z EPS trended a little warmer over the weekend compared to its 00Z run.    But that might just be coming into agreement with the operational run since it was cooler on the last few runs.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That has to help delay wildfire season, right?

 

Soil moisture content in WA/OR is the highest it’s been since 2011 and 2012 for this time of year.

According to the news all this moisture does is cause new plant growth (fuel for future wild fires when they erupt).  Can’t win lol.

love the news  :ph34r:

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Tim don't be fooled man.

 

The Aleutian Low is going to kick some tail for the next few weeks.

 

Maybe the 4CH will get up off the mat and be strong this summer but I have my doubts.

Not so simple. The 4CH will be likely stronger than average this summer, but that needn’t translate to significant warmth in the PNW.

 

Developing Niña/IO-based standing wave promotes Pacific subsidence/ITCZ broadening/larger 4CH, but the quasi-stable low pass ET wave stations aren’t favorable for prolonged heat in the PNW (Aleutian Ridge/+NPO).

 

The system state is now evolving towards that more classically La Niña mode of operation, however, that process (in tandem with the CCKW/intraseasonal wave crossing into the WHEM) is resulting in the building of the West Coast anticyclone, which will produce a period of warmth as it slowly retrogrades into the GOA.

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Cool time lapse of 24 hours of daylight in Barrow, Alaska. The sun barely skims the northern horizon before rising again.

 

https://seaice.alaska.edu/Staging/Utq_seaicecam/Utq_seaicecam_24hr.mp4?fbclid=IwAR3eUYJ_nBXRSPWiikHv5UreeMmDnEOP05yBBuOcg91dUCgme2bMnT7odrE

Are you sure that wasn’t Tom Cruise buzzing the tower? 

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This bodes well for the fire season. I know it isn't rare to have decent precip through mid June, but it doesn't happen every year.

Definitely. It’s been about eight years since we’ve seen a significantly wet pattern this late. Which is a pretty remarkable stretch.

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It has not been 8 years up here.... we have had above normal rain in June in 3 of the last 5 years now (2016, 2017, and 2020).

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Definitely. It’s been about eight years since we’ve seen a significantly wet pattern this late. Which is a pretty remarkable stretch.

It’s been interesting to see...the last time June was like this was 2012 and I was 13 at the time. I followed the weather back then but I wasn’t quite as interested in the weather then as I have been over the past few years. So this June seems out of the ordinary considering the past few Junes...it’s already the wettest since 2012 and could very well be the coolest since 2012 if it doesn’t get too hot at the end of the month.
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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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COVERED PORCH AREA. I knew you didn’t like the rain.

 

 

Won't matter down there anyways... the rain will likely stay north of Olympia this weekend.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It has not been 8 years up here.... we have had above normal rain in June in 3 of the last 5 years now (2016, 2017, and 2020).

There are some large scale similarities to 2016 at the moment. But it’s not a perfect match either, particularly over the subtropical NPAC, which was on fire that year (and also in 2017).

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It’s been interesting to see...the last time June was like this was 2012 and I was 13 at the time. I followed the weather back then but I wasn’t quite as interested in the weather then as I have been over the past few years. So this June seems out of the ordinary considering the past few Junes...it’s already the wettest since 2012 and could very well be the coolest since 2012 if it doesn’t get too hot at the end of the month.

Yet to be seen. I can picture a lengthy stretch of warmth toward the end of the month to “make up” for this, and it’s not like there are huge negative anomalies to overcome right now anyway.

 

Very nice to finally see a wet June regardless, though.

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Whole lot of passive complaining on here today.

Tables might be about to turn though. Then we will hear aggressive complaining. ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Definitely. It’s been about eight years since we’ve seen a significantly wet pattern this late. Which is a pretty remarkable stretch.

That's a crazy stretch of dryness. Growing up, I have memories of frequent rainy Junes and the fires were rarely as bad as we've had in the last several years.

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That's a crazy stretch of dryness. Growing up, I have memories of frequent rainy Junes and the fires were rarely as bad as we've had in the last several years.

 

Yes... it seems to go in cycles based on history.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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