June 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

76/56 today.

[TT-SEA]

Perfect day!

 

We went to Rattlesnake Lake this afternoon and its ridiculously high. I have never seen it that high. Beach is completely gone and the water is way up into the grassy areas near the parking lot. I guess it makes sense since this one of the wettest years in history so far in this area. The Cedar Lake station which is just a mile from Rattlesnake Lake is at almost 75 inches of rain since January 1st. Keeping pace with 1953 as the wettest year in history.

[TT-SEA]

Made reservations in Couer D'Alene for the upcoming holiday weekend... lots of water activities there.    Hotels have very friendly cancellation policies now.  And northern Idaho is basically operating normally from a virus perspective.    If it ends up nice here then we will move it to another weekend.    I probably just assured a warm weekend here now... but at least we have options.

[seattleweatherguy]

Cold July if brent anderson is right

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/latest-clues-to-the-weather-pattern-through-july/763844

[MossMan]

It’s over.

 

Anyway it’s a lovely 73 at the moment...Perfect.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Phil]

Good grief. Yes, we’re skipping over -QBO again, similar to 2016.

 

[Omegaraptor]

Good grief. Yes, we’re skipping over -QBO again, similar to 2016.

Excellent news for winter. For this far out, the table is set about as well as it can be.

[Deweydog]

Night shift?

[FroYoBro]

Night shift?

Big night!

[Deweydog]

Big night!

Six months ‘til a COVID/CHOP/CHAZ Christmas!!!

[GHweatherChris]

GFS still looks great for here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still 70F at almost 10:45.

[Phil]

Excellent news for winter. For this far out, the table is set about as well as it can be.

And check out the electron fluence..this is stupid low.

 

The Sun is in a coma.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

And check out the electron fluence..this is stupid low.

 

The Sun is in a coma.

 

 

Unprecedented.

[Phil]

Yeah...hard to beat solar min/+QBO/La Niña. As close to a 1950s setup as we can get nowadays.

 

If the IPWP can retract a little farther west later this summer, into the E-IO..look the f**k out.

[MossMan]

Night shift?

Not until phase 4.

[Deweydog]

Yeah...hard to beat solar min/+QBO/La Niña. As close to a 1950s setup as we can get nowadays.

 

If the IPWP can retract a little farther west later this summer, into the E-IO..look the f**k out.

Holy sh*t.

[GHweatherChris]

The models right now are almost as good as spending time in a high altitude cabin!

[Phil]

[Phil]

I ran a correlation between non-niño (and niño) snowy SEA winters and JJA geopotential height anomalies.

 

The non-niño snowy cluster has a stronger -PNA signal in JJA than non-snowy non-niño winters. But strangely, the snowy *niño* cluster is much more +PNA/ridgy in JJA than the non-snowy niño cluster. However, that could be due to the relatively small sample size.

[ShawniganLake]

I’m gonna get an extra cord of wood for this coming winter. Going to be brutally cold.

[Omegaraptor]

As for the rest of summer..IO standing wave/WPWP subsidence consistent with La Niña is a relatively cool/troughy signal in the PNW. And it’s an active signal for Atlantic hurricanes too...you just know 2020 will bring the Katrina redux..because it’s 2020.

And it’s a signal that starts to bring drought/death ridge risks for the central US as well starting mid-July. And eventually the entire CONUS (except the NW) joins the torch in August. Ugliness.

But my expectations are at rock bottom so anything better than the above will be a win in my book.

When you do you think the next opportunity for western ridging is, if I might ask?

[MossMan]

I’m gonna get an extra cord of wood for this coming winter. Going to be brutally cold.

Forget winter, you will need that cord of wood for July!

[Phil]

When you do you think the next opportunity for western ridging is, if I might ask?

Maybe July 15-25 +/- a few days on either side?

 

The IO/IPWP cell has been relatively dominant and the equatorial WPAC/dateline region is continuing to cool. Seems to be that whatever western ridging develops should be relatively transient in nature.

 

The tropical forcing is simply ideal for a troughy regime right now. Subsidence right over the WPAC warm pool.

[Phil]

Perfect day!

 

We went to Rattlesnake Lake this afternoon and its ridiculously high. I have never seen it that high. Beach is completely gone and the water is way up into the grassy areas near the parking lot. I guess it makes sense since this one of the wettest years in history so far in this area. The Cedar Lake station which is just a mile from Rattlesnake Lake is at almost 75 inches of rain since January 1st. Keeping pace with 1953 as the wettest year in history.

Bro you literally say this every year. It’s *always* the wettest on record up there.

 

Meanwhile..

[Omegaraptor]

Bro you literally say this every year. It’s *always* the wettest on record up there.

Meanwhile..

Haven’t checked that in a while. Didn’t realize the soil dried back up here after the early-mid June rain.

 

Lots of dry soil in the US right now. Pretty big contrast from last year where everywhere was wet, with one slight exception...

[TT-SEA]

Bro you literally say this every year. It’s *always* the wettest on record up there.

 

Meanwhile..

 

 

I don't say that every year.   Last year was quite dry.   

 

I am literally just reporting the rainfall stats in this area.   The Cedar Lake station has been around for over 100 years as its the source of the drinking water for Seattle.    Its been extremely wet in this area this year overall... its not debatable or an opinion.  That station is currently 18.88 inches above normal for the year.  Just a fact.   Although the main reason its been so wet this year is because of the crazy amounts of rain in the first 6 weeks through the middle of February.   It has not been extremely wet since... but it has not been dry either.   And the lake by our house is higher than I ever seen it.   Tonight we were standing on what is normally the beach area and it was almost up to my waist.    That lake is fed by run off from Cedar Lake.   Its a mile away.

 

Oh... and my lawn is looking a little dry right now despite all the rain this month.  5 days of sun and its already drying out.   I won't need to water though since it will rain most of Saturday here.

[TT-SEA]

Nice improvements on the 00Z ECMWF.

 

Next week looks pretty decent again and the 4th of July weekend looks spectacular.    Too early for any confidence... but its nice to see.

[ShawniganLake]

Nice improvements on the 00Z ECMWF.

 

Next week looks pretty decent again and the 4th of July weekend looks spectacular. Too early for any confidence... but its nice to see.

Why does it matter. You got big jet skiing plans next weekend?

[TT-SEA]

Why does it matter. You got big jet skiing plans next weekend?

 

 

So much jet skiing.   Although I need to go buy one first.   

[ShawniganLake]

[TT-SEA]

Maybe you should invite Phil. Maybe he just feels left out. Do you have a side by side he could join you on?

 

 

As I added... I still need to go out and buy one.   Then I can be a jet ski guy!    

[ShawniganLake]

As I added... I still need to go out and buy one. Then I can be a jet ski guy!

I know you don’t have one and somehow I don’t see you getting a jet ski

[TT-SEA]

I know you don’t have one and somehow I don’t see you getting a jet ski

No... that is a young person's game.

[ShawniganLake]

Nice day today. 78F here. The kids were excited to get to use the pool.

[Deweydog]

[Jesse]

My preferences are feeling particularly vulnerable this evening.

 

Nice day though. High of 82. Down to 66 now.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I can’t even drive anymore so operating a jet ski would be ill-advised for this guy.

[TacomaWaWx]

Got down to 58 this morning. Mornings have been mild lately.