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June 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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Prior to 1990, Eugene's last white Christmases were 1983, 1948, and 1924. In other words, it's pretty dang rare and not something that you would regularly anticipate.

 

Ok, so if we go 5 more years it'll be the longest streak ever. It's still sad AF that we haven't had one since 1990, I don't care how often we can anticipate it. When places just a bit to the north have them and we miss out, it's demoralizing and it pisses some of us off that we have to come to grips with the fact that we live in the shittiest inland place for lowland Dec-Jan snow down here.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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ECMWF has come around and now shows Friday being wet and and cold... its been pretty interesting to see the ECMWF cave to the GFS on surface details even in the short range when there is a significant disagreement.    That never used to be the case.   I am not sure if its just the overall pattern or related to the GFS upgrade.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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ECMWF has come around and now shows Friday being wet and and cold... its been pretty interesting to see the ECMWF cave to the GFS on surface details even in the short range when there is a significant disagreement.    That never used to be the case.   I am not sure if its just the overall pattern or related to the GFS upgrade.  

America for the win.

It is odd seeing the Euro continuously cave to the gfs for the most of the spring. was there ever good documentation that the data input this spring tanked with lack of flight data? Perhaps euro has a dependence on that data for more accurate prognostications.

Summer returns end of the next week. 23rd/24th could be HOT. Maybe Phil has a guess whether this will be a transient pattern flip or something more lasting?

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Fort Lauderdale and Miami average about 62 inches of rain a year so good to see some areas get that much and even more. Strong rain shadow for Hillsboro, not as extreme as the Olympic rain shadow but it’s evident. Omega why don’t you move already? Move to Washougal and you get 2 feet of more rain a year hehheh

Washougal is the only real area that averages 62 inches of rain a year. The rest of Metro averages less than that. As you move up in elevation along the Cascade foothills, rainfall increases dramatically.

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America for the win.

It is odd seeing the Euro continuously cave to the gfs for the most of the spring. was there ever good documentation that the data input this spring tanked with lack of flight data? Perhaps euro has a dependence on that data for more accurate prognostications.

Summer returns end of the next week. 23rd/24th could be HOT. Maybe Phil has a guess whether this will be a transient pattern flip or something more lasting?

Phil will say its very short-lived.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Had almost an inch of rain yesterday.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We’re at 23.23” exactly as of this morning in Tacoma. It took until mid December to get this much rainfall in 2019. Has been a decently wet start to the year in the Seattle area.

2B0E5188-8163-4C1E-928D-502F51A05883.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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We’re at 23.23” exactly as of this morning in Tacoma. It took until mid December to get this much rainfall in 2019. Has been a decently wet start to the year in the Seattle area.

 

 

As I have been saying... it has not been a dry year up here.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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As I have been saying... it has not been a dry year up here.

 

Lot of that fell in January obviously but still we’ve been doing pretty good with rainfall in the first half of this year.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Summer returns end of the next week. 23rd/24th could be HOT. Maybe Phil has a guess whether this will be a transient pattern flip or something more lasting?

Transient. Low pass/background state puts the trough in the west with a Central US ridge.

 

This time the pattern will probably retrograde again instead of prograding. AAM integral low/dropping. Return to IO forcing following the weak MJO/CCKW.

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Phil will say its very short-lived.

Probably 7-10 days? Such is the nature of intraseasonal wave cycles.

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Hit 54 this morning...another 0.04” has fallen since midnight. 0.93” on the month.

Sitting at almost 2” here but that was mainly due to a one day convergence that was consistent all day. Once again SEA is the dry slot sitting at only .53”.
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Warm season +NAO thermomechanically teleconnects to ridges on the coasts and a positively tilted trough anomaly across the central US/Great Lakes. Warm/dry west, cool/wet Midwest, warm/wet East. Origin of this cycle is EA retrogression/AAM loss during ASM inception.

 

But the low pass IO divergence should destructively interfere with this process over time. So the inverse (troughs on the coasts, Plains ridge) should be favored reappear with time, following this intraseasonal transit.

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EPAC has been cooling relative to the Indo-WPAC for the last month. Should promote a tighter Walker Cell, and assuming uplift remains centered West of 160E, a tendency towards a GOA/Aleutian anticyclone with time. There’s less in the way of off-equator warmth across the eastern/central Pacific this year versus super-4CH years, so while it’ll probably be stronger than average, my original concern from a few months ago for a gargantuan 4CH probably was overstated. Perhaps a more equatorward precip gradient over the West Coast, with SoCal/parts of OR still dry, but more precip in WA/Southern BC?

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WFO Seattle is also only at .58".

I wasn’t meaning to say there was an issue at SEA I was just noting how dry it has been in that small hole around downtown and a little south. It’s interesting how much wetter it has been a few miles north, south, and east.
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Up to 63 and partly sunny. Should end up being the warmest day so far this month. Haven’t had any rain since earlier this morning but there’s still showers around to the south of here.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Sitting at almost 2” here but that was mainly due to a one day convergence that was consistent all day. Once again SEA is the dry slot sitting at only .53”.

Seattle usually is the one of the drier locations in western WA...besides sequim of course and a couple other microclimates.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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cool down coming and then a big warm up followed by a cool down for 4th of july with heavy rain

It’s June 10th.
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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It’s June 10th.

The past few 4ths haven’t been that bad it’s definitely not like it rains every year on the 4th. I think the last time we even had rain on the holiday itself was 2011 IIRC.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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75F and mostly cloudy. We have been wetter on the east side of town this month. Lots of downpours.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Seattle usually is the one of the drier locations in western WA...besides sequim of course and a couple other microclimates.

Agreed. I feel like the difference has been more substantial lately. There has been a stark line at least to the north when it typically is more of blend up towards lynnwood/Everett.
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EPS has been very consistent with the warm up beginning about one week from now and has been moving the timing up accordingly and the 12Z run is slightly faster than the 00Z run which a good sign.

 

It shows that the cold air begins to slowly shift east during the day next Wednesday into Thursday and then it turns warm.

 

Nice to have something on the horizon.   Today it not bad... but it starts going downhill tomorrow and the cold air stays in place then until next Wednesday.

 

The 10-15 day mean looks lovely...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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New long range pattern update from Brett Anderson through the first week of July. Looks pretty seasonal with wetter conditions in the northern portion of the PNW. He says confidence is low however.

 

"Confidence is fairly low across western Canada through early July due to the lack of strong signals."

 

JUN10A-1.png

JUNE10B-2.png

JUNE10C-1.png

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weekly-long-range-weather-pattern-update/756832

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