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June 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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Both the GEPS and GEFS revert to IO forcing/Pacific subsidence by D15. Definitely more Niña-like.

 

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00Z ECMWF shows quite a soaking for western WA tomorrow morning.   That was not on previous runs.    

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip-12

 

It will be the 7th day in a row with rain here and 7 more coming... likely a 14-day streak which is impressive for June.   Normally there are 12 days with measureable precip out here in June.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Had 0.07” of rain this morning. 2.01” on the month!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Now the GFS is going with a much stronger ULL cutting off and lingering for most of next week while the ECMWF is much more progressive.   I am sure the GFS will own the ECMWF again... even when its not displaying its usual cut-off bias.

 

gfs_z500a_namer_29.png

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Frogs like the weather.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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57F and cloudy.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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The discussion was implying days above 70 were “summery”. We had about 10 of those in April.

We’re 100 miles north so the weather has been a bit different obviously...we only had 9 70+ days in April and May COMBINED at this location...2 of those 80+ days in May. Has also been about 6 inches of rain since that record breaking dry streak in early April...30 out of the last 54 days have had measurable precip. Not very summer like and I’m actually really enjoying it!
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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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EPS has been very consistent with the warm up beginning about one week from now and has been moving the timing up accordingly and the 12Z run is slightly faster than the 00Z run which a good sign.

 

It shows that the cold air begins to slowly shift east during the day next Wednesday into Thursday and then it turns warm.

 

Nice to have something on the horizon. Today it not bad... but it starts going downhill tomorrow and the cold air stays in place then until next Wednesday.

 

The 10-15 day mean looks lovely...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-

Looks nice, I'm ready to do some outdoor activities.

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00Z ECMWF shows quite a soaking for western WA tomorrow morning.   That was not on previous runs.    

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip-12

 

 

 

This appears to have been quite overstated.

 

It is unsettling to see the ECMWF doing so poorly with surface details.   Phil - is this still COVID related and limited air craft and personnel?  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This appears to have been quite overstated.

 

It is unsettling to see the ECMWF doing so poorly with surface details.   Phil - is this still COVID related and limited air craft and personnel?  

 

That look spot on accurate for Victoria, maybe less so elsewhere. The GFS has been cutting back on totals through Saturday.

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I am getting a sense that there will be no warm up later next week... models keep trending towards keeping a ULL parked over the PNW.  

 

The default trough position is difficult to break.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Cicadas on this side of the country?

I believe we have 1 or 2 species. I definitely hear a buzzing insect like a cicada in July and August here on the east side of town.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Lovely morning, drizzly and cool. Feels fresh outside.

Really hoping for a stretch of warm and dry weather though. My wife and I bought a house and we have a few days of moving where any wet precip is going to complicate things.

Some dry marine layer days would be good moving weather too.

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This appears to have been quite overstated.

 

It is unsettling to see the ECMWF doing so poorly with surface details. Phil - is this still COVID related and limited air craft and personnel?

I don’t know. The ECMWF has had a bias towards excessive subsidence across the tropical Indo-Pacific this spring/early summer, which is atypical for this model. Could be a product of excessive atmosphere-SSTA coupling? But that would affect the longer range more than the short range.

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