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June 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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Thank you.   Sorry been a crazy day. Got the kiddos back to their mom in the central Willamette Valley and have just now gotten our cozy place somewhat back together.   Such kind words. Y'all have sav

If you crop out the date, you'd think these were early winter scenes...

I hear ya, things are good here.    Overall health is improving quite well.    Hang in there man.         

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I think the control run will end to closer to reality, once again. The MJO/medium pass signal is returning to the EHEM over the next two weeks, which isn’t warm-west favorable.

Well that sucks. It would be nice to break out of the rainy weekend cycle too. Let's get these troughs mid-week! But those are just my opinions. I respect that everyone else wants rainy, cold weekends all summer.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Well that sucks. It would be nice to break out of the rainy weekend cycle too. Let's get these troughs mid-week! But those are just my opinions. I respect that everyone else wants rainy, cold weekends all summer.

There’ll probably be some patten instability w/ a few warm/ridgy cycles in the second half of June, during the next MJO transit. Also AAM transports culminating around that timeframe. But in the grand scheme of things, it doesn’t look persistently warm out there in my opinion.

 

Essentially, the more dominant the MJO/higher frequency cycles are versus the low pass/-ENSO stagnant forcing, the warmer the overall outcome will be, all else being equal. Vice versa if the ENSO/stagnant forcing is more dominant.

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Well that sucks. It would be nice to break out of the rainy weekend cycle too. Let's get these troughs mid-week! But those are just my opinions. I respect that everyone else wants rainy, cold weekends all summer.

I kind of agree with you here. Weekends need to be dry during this time of year.
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Take advantage of any nice weather right now, that's easy.

 

Mother nature doesn't care what day of the week it is.

 

I do... but its easier to do that on the weekends when we aren't working.

 

I fully realize that nature does not care. Sometimes the rainy cycles have favorable timing and sometimes they don't.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I mean we better see this pattern again in winter.

 

This pattern in winter wouldn't be all that special. Maybe some cold NW flow which is good for the mountains but it's not a lowland snow pattern. 

 

The big cold in winter happens when you have a big ridge in the Gulf of Alaska extending up into Alaska. Having a ridge in the eastern US also helps. The cold then comes out of northern Canada and into the western US.

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Welcome to June.

 

firstensemblesofjune2020.png

May ended up out here @ +2.9 with 134% of normal rainfall. A warmer and wetter month than normal.

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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May ended up out here @ +2.9 with 134% of normal rainfall. A warmer and wetter month than normal.

I thought anything under a +3 was annoying chilly.

 

Looks like Troutdale had the biggest positive departure in the metro. Most other spots were +1 to +2.

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The 00z Euro is much sexier than the 12z.

 

Troughs on both coasts and a suppressed 4CH with a dynamic post-tropical cyclone crossing half of the US. Love it.

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Warm next few days. But wunderground shows a high of 48 next Sunday! That's a -26 degree departure from the average high for June!


 


I wish I had easy access to record minimum high temperatures, wunder never seems to show them. I've had low-mid 50's in June before but I can't recall the last time I had a sub-50.


Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.20"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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I know this is the June thread but any guesses on the 4th of July weekend?

 

This pattern of clouds and sun under the week with rain on the weekend will probably hold for another month.

 

I expect 4th of July weekend to be an absolute wash out.

 

Jesse, this ones for you!

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I know this is the June thread but any guesses on the 4th of July weekend?

 

This pattern of clouds and sun under the week with rain on the weekend will probably hold for another month.

 

I expect 4th of July weekend to be an absolute wash out.

 

Jesse, this ones for you!

 

I can remember more warm 4th of July's than cool/mild, but I've never lived in Seattle. Portland/Hillsboro I think runs a decent chance at

NOT seeing 60's and drizzle.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.20"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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I think the control run will end to closer to reality, once again. The MJO/medium pass signal is returning to the EHEM over the next two weeks, which isn’t warm-west favorable.

 

Hope you're wrong about the control run, at least in the clown range:

 

image.png

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This weekend looks like a boring rainshadowed overcast pattern out here. Good thing it will only last a few days.

12z GFS ensembles show a troughy pattern holding into the long range.

 

916F414C-13B4-48E0-B521-5D5581F4E9F4.png

 

But don’t worry, I still called the waambulance for you.

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Wonder when this thread will get tagged.

 

And hopefully lots of discussions on salmon paddy sandwiches with cheese. 

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.20"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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EPS is not as pleasant in the long range today... another deep, cold trough is diving in right behind the weekend trough.   

 

Going to be a long wait this year with a Nina developing.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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EPS is not as pleasant in the long range today... another deep, cold trough is diving in right behind the weekend trough.

 

Going to be a long wait this year with a Nina developing.

It shows average precip and slightly below average temperatures overall. Pretty typical stuff.

 

What are you waiting for, exactly?

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It shows average precip and slightly below average temperatures overall. Pretty typical stuff.

 

What are you waiting for, exactly?

 

Just the slowing down of these deep, cold troughs diving down... going to be a long wait this year which typical for a developing Nina.   Might not ever happen.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hard to remain stoic in the face of fairly typical nearly June weather.

 

I am stoic about it and fully expect it.     Normal June weather is usually quite disappointing in terms of general summer expectations... which fly in the face of PNW climo.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Every June needs to be 2015 or its bad.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nina.

 

 

Silly stuff.   Not true at all.   But a developing Nina is definitely bad news for June... less so for July - Sept.

 

I know from 125 years of historical data that June can be very disappointing if you are expecting a full-on summery month like other places in the country.    Its probably the most annoying month for me most years because its the peak daylight month but normal weather includes many dark days and frequent rain.     That is normal here so to hope for anything more is just going to be disappointing most of the time.   

 

So I have to love every aspect of this climate?    I don't think many people on here love everything about our climate.    ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Deep troughs (relative to climo) are no less frequent than deep troughs in June.

 

If every summer flipped to anomalous ridging and above normal temperatures in July, it would become entrenched in the climatological averages.

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Deep troughs (relative to climo) are no less frequent than deep troughs in June.

 

If every summer flipped to anomalous ridging and above normal temperatures in July, it would become entrenched in the climatological averages.

Yep... its normal. And its going to be a longer wait this year. Its why people around here say that summer starts July 5th.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Normal high in Seattle is either side of 70 in June... this might be a normal June period coming up but its not very summery.

 

20200602-150244.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9AF93910-892C-4A2A-92C0-1FF6D9E8157C.jpeg

Here is the average high by date for the 1991-20 period at Hillsboro.

Seems like summer starts here on June 19. Early June is still spring in this region but in exchange early-mid September is more summery.

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attachicon.gif9AF93910-892C-4A2A-92C0-1FF6D9E8157C.jpeg

 

Here is the average high by date for the 1991-20 period at Hillsboro.

 

Seems like summer starts here on June 19. Early June is still spring in this region but in exchange September is summery.

 

 

Odd quirk in the SEA data in which the average high is 69 for June 1-5 and then falls to 67 by June 6 and 7 and does not get back to 69 until the 15th.  

 

The average high in the 3rd week of May is just about the same as it is in the second week of June.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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