June 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Front Ranger]

The 12Z ECMWF keeps the Seattle area dry on Saturday with the rain band stationary to the north... then it slides through Saturday night and Sunday morning and its fairly dry again by afternoon.  

 

At face value... not a washout weekend for the Seattle area.    

 

Similar to last weekend.

[TT-SEA]

Similar to last weekend.

 

 

Probably a little warmer though.  

 

Still not even close to what was advertised a couple days ago.    That would have been nice timing.

[Front Ranger]

This just got escalated to phase two.

 

Justin was warned there were maps. He refused to listen. 

[El_Nina]

Had an extreme downpour here a bit ago that dropped nearly a half inch in 15 minutes. Up to 0.78" on the day and 4.52" for June. Over 11" of rain for May/June.

[Dave]

Lots of rain today so far, but the sun is out now. There is so much steam coming off the roof that mini steamnadoes are being formed. Pretty cool!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Lots of rain today so far, but the sun is out now. There is so much steam coming off the roof that mini steamnadoes are being formed. Pretty cool!

 

Yeah it's been back and forth here on the east side of town with the moisture getting hung up on the foothills.

[TacomaWaWx]

Nice and dry up here with a few sunbreaks...all the rain is south of here and over the cascades.

[BLI snowman]

"Chilly" is another subjective word. But these are based on 30 year averages, and were still chillier than normal for much of the region.

 

Aug10TDeptWRCC-NW.png

 

Aug07TDeptWRCC-NW.png

 

Aug06TDeptWRCC-NW.png

 

 

The Willamette Valley hasn't had a "cold" August (using 20th century norms) since 2000. 

 

 

The Puget Sound lowlands haven't had a "cold" August (using 20th century norms) since 2000.

 

 

As always, I strongly encourage you to actually play around with NCDC's climate at a glance page and utilize the 'Time Series' feature. Since you seem to like maps so much.

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series

[MossMan]

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/web_7-day.jpg

Last rainy day in a while.

You must not live near me.

[Front Ranger]

The Willamette Valley hasn't had a "cold" August (using 20th century norms) since 2000. 

 

oraugtemps.png

 

The Puget Sound lowlands haven't had a "cold" August (using 20th century norms) since 2000.

 

waaugtemps.png

 

As always, I strongly encourage you to actually play around with NCDC's climate at a glance page and utilize the 'Time Series' feature. Since you seem to like maps so much.

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series

 

I have to wonder what stations they base the 1901-2000 average on. Very few stations around in the early 20th century, and certainly not the airport stations that are used today. Not apples to apples.

 

I prefer to use long term averages based on stations that are still around. Same location. And as I said, OLM has seen a handful of Augusts since 2000 with a lower average temp than their 1941-2019 average. That seems like a more fair comparison to me.

[GHweatherChris]

Heavy rain and some hail mixed in currently here.

[The Swamp]

i was hoping for a nice fathers day as i am bbq'ing and don't have a big covered area

 

maybe the models will be wrong?

 

fingers crossed

[BLI snowman]

I have to wonder what stations they base the 1901-2000 average on. Very few stations around in the early 20th century, and certainly not the airport stations that are used today. Not apples to apples.

 

I prefer to use long term averages based on stations that are still around. Same location. And as I said, OLM has seen a handful of Augusts since 2000 with a lower average temp than their 1941-2019 average. That seems like a more fair comparison to me.

 

The number is simply a mean lifted from all of the station data from that sub-regional division that is in the NCDC database. There were actually a lot of stations around by the early 20th century, most of them just aren't still there.

 

I think it's pretty fair to say that nothing stands out whatsoever since 2000 on the cool side, and even then you're talking only marginally cold by historic stands. To be fair to the last 20 years, as you can see on the graphs there the 1977-1999 period was also pretty torchy in August. It's a month that has warmed pretty dramatically and almost without interruption since the big PDO flip.

[Blizzard777]

Pretty nice day.

Quite nice! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Kiddos enjoying being outside in the downpours.

[Blizzard777]

Stormy down south 

 

[Blizzard777]

Kiddos enjoying being outside in the downpours.

Kids don’t get cold under any conditions!  Lol

Good entertainment watching them do their thing...enjoy

[FroYoBro]

Very heavy downpour coming through right now. Fun. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Kids don’t get cold under any conditions!  Lol

Good entertainment watching them do their thing...enjoy

 

Only thing I've said is if you hear thunder then you come inside and we can open the windows and hope some ball lightning comes through. 

[Blizzard777]

Only thing I've said is if you hear thunder then you come inside and we can open the windows and hope some ball lightning comes through. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

August 2010 in the Willamette Valley was about average, I certainly would not consider it a cool August. I think Salem hit 100 that month too, or got very close. 

[BLI snowman]

Thunderstorm right now in Vancouver.

[FroYoBro]

Thunderstorm right now in Vancouver.

 

Had one strike right to the south of here 5 minutes ago. Super loud thunder.

[Farmboy]

After seeing the 12z gfs go off the rails and then the collapse of the ridge on the Euro, I can only say, D**n, could this really be the year without a summer??

[Omegaraptor]

After seeing the 12z gfs go off the rails and then the collapse of the ridge on the Euro, I can only say, d**n, could this really be the year without a summer??

 

[TacomaWaWx]

63 and mostly sunny here. Beautiful day.

[TacomaWaWx]

After seeing the 12z gfs go off the rails and then the collapse of the ridge on the Euro, I can only say, d**n, could this really be the year without a summer??

It’s June 16th.

[Front Ranger]

The number is simply a mean lifted from all of the station data from that sub-regional division that is in the NCDC database. There were actually a lot of stations around by the early 20th century, most of them just aren't still there.

 

I think it's pretty fair to say that nothing stands out whatsoever since 2000 on the cool side, and even then you're talking only marginally cold by historic stands. To be fair to the last 20 years, as you can see on the graphs there the 1977-1999 period was also pretty torchy in August. It's a month that has warmed pretty dramatically and almost without interruption since the big PDO flip.

 

Yeah, nothing crazy cool since 2000 for sure. 2007 at OLM was at least cooler than 60% of the Augusts from 1941-1999.

 

No doubt it's been a very torchy month since 2012, and definitely saw a step change warmer with the PDO flip in the late 1970s. And then flipped cooler again 2006-2011 with that -PDO period, though not as cool as pre-1980s Augusts.

[Phil]

The number is simply a mean lifted from all of the station data from that sub-regional division that is in the NCDC database. There were actually a lot of stations around by the early 20th century, most of them just aren't still there.

 

I think it's pretty fair to say that nothing stands out whatsoever since 2000 on the cool side, and even then you're talking only marginally cold by historic stands. To be fair to the last 20 years, as you can see on the graphs there the 1977-1999 period was also pretty torchy in August. It's a month that has warmed pretty dramatically and almost without interruption since the big PDO flip.

It’s difficult to tune/homogenize a dataset like that when there’s so much station relocation/land use changes ongoing over the climatology window.

 

I think this is one of the few cases where taking the averages at individual stations works better, assuming factors like land use/UHI aren’t egregiously drastic.

[Front Ranger]

Another gorgeous afternoon in Seattle.

 

[TT-SEA]

18Z run is interesting... timing is sped so much that Sunday is mostly dry.

 

The models are completely clueless right now and underestimating the strength of the jet stream.   I would not be surprised if the weekend system actually arrives tomorrow at this rate.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

It’s difficult to tune/homogenize a dataset like that when there’s so much station relocation/land use changes ongoing over the climatology window.

 

I think this is one of the few cases where taking the averages at individual stations works better, assuming factors like land use/UHI aren’t egregiously drastic.

They are also required to repaint the stations white every few years, as that reflects sunlight.  When the paint wears out, the station gets darker and absorbs more sunlight, contaminating the readings.  Several years ago, I read that, after they painted a station white, the temps "cooled" by a few degrees right after (they compare stations in the area, and know what temps should be relative to each other).  Since the other stations had not been painted, you would think the station that had just been painted was now more accurate, and the stations not painted were probably running a few degrees too warm (mainly day time).  So they adjusted.  Odd thing was that they adjusted the freshly painted, more accurate station upward, so that it matched the less accurate stations where the paint had worn off.  Should have adjusted the stations that had not been painted down a couple of degrees, since they knew that the freshly painted one was more accurate.

 

With all the land use changes and relocations, and things like I mentioned above, it is really hard to find trends and averages with all the noise.   And things like these don't help either.

 

 

 

[El_Nina]

Tornado in Damascus Saturday.

[TacomaWaWx]

64/50 today. Going to be out on Anderson Island the next few days can’t wait for warmer nice weather.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 61F now. Warmest temp of the day.

[MossMan]

Had a high of 64.

.03” on the day, 2.96” for the month, 36.15” on the year.

Currently mostly sunny and 64.

[TT-SEA]

It was fairly sunny earlier... then a rain cell moved in from the north and fell apart right over NB with the sun still able to undercut the clouds.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ended up with 0.57” today. The weekend system doesn’t look like much down here last I checked. We ended up with 1.38” of rain the past two days.

[Phil]

They are also required to repaint the stations white every few years, as that reflects sunlight. When the paint wears out, the station gets darker and absorbs more sunlight, contaminating the readings. Several years ago, I read that, after they painted a station white, the temps "cooled" by a few degrees right after (they compare stations in the area, and know what temps should be relative to each other). Since the other stations had not been painted, you would think the station that had just been painted was now more accurate, and the stations not painted were probably running a few degrees too warm (mainly day time). So they adjusted. Odd thing was that they adjusted the freshly painted, more accurate station upward, so that it matched the less accurate stations where the paint had worn off. Should have adjusted the stations that had not been painted down a couple of degrees, since they knew that the freshly painted one was more accurate.

 

With all the land use changes and relocations, and things like I mentioned above, it is really hard to find trends and averages with all the noise. And things like these don't help either.

 

 

 

Yep. It’s more of a mess than many realize. The surface station network was never designed to measure regional/global climate. Long term trends are often swamped by local changes driven by urbanization, deforestation, and station relocation/poor siting. Anyone who tells you these factors can be accurately accounted for is spewing diarrhea.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

How hot does it get inside a sauna? I only been in one once, I went to get a massage once in downtown Portland and they said I can take a 15 minute sauna to open up my pores before the session. I don’t remember the temperature but it was so uncomfortable. Never again!

It depends on the type of sauna. To get the health benefits of a sauna you need the temperature to be at least 150F with the optimal range being 180F-195F. Some saunas can get even hotter like the Finnish sauna.

 

"Traditional Finnish saunas entail washing up and sitting in a hot room for a period of time. Finnish saunas reach temperatures of up to 230 degrees fahrenheit (110 C) and typically don’t go below 175 degrees F. After the room reaches its desired or maximum temperature, water is poured over hot stones on top of a stove called a kiuas, which creates moisture in the room. While Finns are enjoying their sauna, it is standard practice to beat oneself with silver birch branch called a vihta, which has a relaxing effect on the muscles."

 

https://saunaville.com/finnish-saunas/