June 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

The beginning of the 4th of July weekend just coming into view on the EPS now at the end of the run... subject to change of course.

 

How’s the 500mb looking. Hoping to take a vacation that weekend

[TT-SEA]

How’s the 500mb looking. Hoping to take a vacation that weekend

 

 

Not much of a signal... close to climo.    Heights of 576DM is generally nice weather though.    But I am sure we will end up with a deep ULL spinning right over WA and SW BC.

 

[MossMan]

How’s the 500mb looking. Hoping to take a vacation that weekend

I need a vacation.

[Omegaraptor]

The beginning of the 4th of July weekend just coming into view on the EPS now at the end of the run... subject to change of course.  

 

The question is how much spread. Most of the members could be troughy with a smaller number of very ridgy members keeping that average up. Seems fairly likely in this pattern.

[GobBluth]

-PNA

 

The beginning of the 4th of July weekend just coming into view on the EPS now at the end of the run... subject to change of course.  

 

[TT-SEA]

Pretty sure anyone can guess what happens when it comes to next weekend...

 

Seems inevitable at this point.

[Deweydog]

We’re f*cked.

[Cloud]

Euro running a solid 7F cooler tomorrow and GFS is HOT for next week. I don’t think the GFS will win out.

 

https://twitter.com/albrechtjay/status/1273750908816330752?s=21

[Farmboy]

Wow, it really is the year without a summer. Are there volcanic particulates in the atmosphere circling the globe right now?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Model Wars!!

[TT-SEA]

Euro running a solid 7F cooler tomorrow and GFS is HOT for next week. I don’t think the GFS will win out.

 

https://twitter.com/albrechtjay/status/1273750908816330752?s=21

Just so you understand the ECMWF cold bias... last night it showed 69 at SEA today. It was actually 77.

[Omegaraptor]

Just so you understand the ECMWF cold bias... last night it showed 69 at SEA today. It was actually 77.

ECMWF surface temps are weird. The bias seems to depend on the area. They are consistently too cool in Puget Sound and western Oregon lowlands... but for whatever reason they usually seem too hot in lowland California (particularly in mid-long range). Columbia Basin seems to vary.

[Phil]

Not much of a signal... close to climo. Heights of 576DM is generally nice weather though. But I am sure we will end up with a deep ULL spinning right over WA and SW BC.

 

That’s a GOA ridge/western trough pattern. Fairly typical cold ENSO wavetrain. Try to isolate where the ridges/troughs are.

 

Only reason the 850mb mean is warm is because of a smaller cluster of blowtorch members with the ridge nudging a bit eastward.

[Phil]

The question is how much spread. Most of the members could be troughy with a smaller number of very ridgy members keeping that average up. Seems fairly likely in this pattern.

Pretty much this.

[TT-SEA]

That’s a GOA ridge/western trough pattern. Fairly typical cold ENSO wavetrain. Try to isolate where the ridges/troughs are.

 

Only reason the 850mb mean is warm is because of a smaller cluster of blowtorch members with the ridge nudging a bit eastward.

Of course... always the same.

 

It is a very weak signal though. I have seen much more robust troughs and a significantly cold air mass shown over the PNW even at 15 days out on the EPS recently.

 

So there is some hope. But it will probably come down to the placement of a meandering ULL.

[GeorgeWx]

[GeorgeWx]

Just so you understand the ECMWF cold bias... last night it showed 69 at SEA today. It was actually 77.

ECMWF surface temps are weird. The bias seems to depend on the area. They are consistently too cool in Puget Sound and western Oregon lowlands... but for whatever reason they usually seem too hot in lowland California (particularly in mid-long range). Columbia Basin seems to vary.

I tried explaining this to Jesse yesterday. I figured it had a cold bias but didn’t realize it was that extreme

[GeorgeWx]

That’s a GOA ridge/western trough pattern. Fairly typical cold ENSO wavetrain. Try to isolate where the ridges/troughs are.

 

Only reason the 850mb mean is warm is because of a smaller cluster of blowtorch members with the ridge nudging a bit eastward.

The Cfs is showing the same thing. I would feel better if it was showing ridging since whatever it shows the opposite always seems to happen, but like you say Phil a broken clock is right twice a day heh

[Omegaraptor]

The Cfs is showing the same thing. I would feel better if it was showing ridging since whatever it shows the opposite always seems to happen, but like you say Phil a broken clock is right twice a day heh

100° Fourth of July?

[TT-SEA]

I tried explaining this to Jesse yesterday. I figured it had a cold bias but didn’t realize it was that extreme

 

 

Its not normally 8 degrees... but it was today.

 

Its consistently 3-5 degrees too cold in the warm season for the entire Puget Sound region.   And often in the cold season as well.

[Jesse]

Wow, it really is the year without a summer. Are there volcanic particulates in the atmosphere circling the globe right now?

The funny part is, it’s looking increasingly unlikely even June actually ends up below average for much of the region.

[TT-SEA]

Even UHI-infested SEA was below normal on 11 days in a 14-day stretch that ended yesterday.   

 

And it rained on most of those days.  

 

So its understandable right now that people are anxious to see some nicer summer weather.    

[Blizzard777]

77/50

[El_Nina]

Something about these drought maps that makes me wonder is why it seems the severity of the drought follows along orographic lines. Just abnormally dry in the cascades where it rains much more on average than where it is severe drought in the valley which gets much less rain on average. This is supposed to be a departure from normal conditions. Have we really gotten pattern after pattern of orographic lift being favored in such a way that the drought ends up being much less severe in places that were already supposed to be getting a lot more rain?

[Phil]

The Cfs is showing the same thing. I would feel better if it was showing ridging since whatever it shows the opposite always seems to happen, but like you say Phil a broken clock is right twice a day heh

Eww what a nasty pattern.

 

I have a bad feeling about the second week of July out this way. Death ridge indicators increasing.

[Jesse]

Nice evening out there.

[GHweatherChris]

Nice evening out there.

It really is here as well except for my neighbor who decided now is a good time to mow his yard instead of 4 hours ago when he got home.

[GobBluth]

It really is here as well except for my neighbor who decided now is a good time to mow his yard instead of 4 hours ago when he got home.

Sorry about that. Long day.

[Blizzard777]

Sundog from last night. It was barely visible but there 

[Omegaraptor]

Something about these drought maps that makes me wonder is why it seems the severity of the drought follows along orographic lines. Just abnormally dry in the cascades where it rains much more on average than where it is severe drought in the valley which gets much less rain on average. This is supposed to be a departure from normal conditions. Have we really gotten pattern after pattern of orographic lift being favored in such a way that the drought ends up being much less severe in places that were already supposed to be getting a lot more rain?Screenshot_20200618-205747_Chrome.jpg

There has been a very strong E-W gradient with precipitation this May and June at least in the Portland area. Compare Hillsboro to any east valley or foothill station. The driest anomalies have been in the western part of the Willamette Valley thanks to rainshadowing in NW flow.

 

NE Oregon is also not in drought because of NW flow.

[Jesse]

It really is here as well except for my neighbor who decided now is a good time to mow his yard instead of 4 hours ago when he got home.

I’m amazed sound carries all the way there from North Bend.

[Jesse]

80/50 here today. First 80 degree day of the month, looks like quite a few to come.

[GHweatherChris]

[GeorgeWx]

100° Fourth of July?

We joke but the 00z Gfs shows some type of ridging return for the fourth.

[GeorgeWx]

Its not normally 8 degrees... but it was today.

 

Its consistently 3-5 degrees too cold in the warm season for the entire Puget Sound region. And often in the cold season as well.

I wonder why that is, they can’t fix it?

[TT-SEA]

I wonder why that is, they can’t fix it?

As long as its consistent then it's fine... its easy to adjust. And its very consistent.

[GeorgeWx]

Eww what a nasty pattern.

 

I have a bad feeling about the second week of July out this way. Death ridge indicators increasing.

A ridge out there most of the time means trough out here so we will see what happens

[Front Ranger]

As long as its consistent then it's fine... its easy to adjust. And its very consistent.

Except when it's 8 degrees off instead of 3.

[TT-SEA]

Except when it's 8 degrees off instead of 3.

 

Yeah... its usually 3-5 degrees.  

 

But it can range from 1-8 degrees.    Its almost never too warm.  

[Omegaraptor]

Wow, it really is the year without a summer. Are there volcanic particulates in the atmosphere circling the globe right now?

Yeah the eruptions of Taal and Krakatoa earlier this year created massive amounts of volcanic particulates. This summer could be even worse than 1954.