June 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Deweydog]

Tim’s f*cked.

[TT-SEA]

Hey Randy... the 00Z ECMWF keeps the rain mostly north of the border tomorrow afternoon.    Maybe dinner on the deck again for you.  

[Timmy Supercell]

Toasty day. 91/46 for my temps.

 

Tomorrow looking at 94-95 for a high and t'storms.

[Timmy Supercell]

Surprised 1955-56 wasn't bolded (I'm assuming most favorable setup?) single snowiest winter down here on record.

[GeorgeWx]

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E8F39FA3-E1E8-44FE-B98E-E1DC8E3A6062.jpeg

 

Excellent news for next winter. Flip to easterly QBO has failed and it looks to remain positive/westerly for the foreseeable future going into winter.

 

1949-50 was Niña/+QBO. 2008-09 was Niña/+QBO. 2016-17 was also a Niña/+QBO that should have been -QBO but the same thing happened. YES!

1949-50 is always thrown around, seriously how realistic is seeing a winter like that?

[GeorgeWx]

Toasty day. 91/46 for my temps.

 

Tomorrow looking at 94-95 for a high and t'storms.

91 is the forecast for tomorrow here. Clouds move in during afternoon so we could stay in the upper 80s

[TT-SEA]

1949-50 is always thrown around, seriously how realistic is seeing a winter like that?

Anything can happen... and it will happen again eventually.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1949-50 is always thrown around, seriously how realistic is seeing a winter like that?

 

Dec-Jan will one day deliver again. But in that capacity down this way, probly never in our lifetimes to that extent.

[Phil]

EPS took away Tim’s July 4th megablowtorch.

[TacomaWaWx]

57 here...warm morning. My buddy apparently got some amazing sunrise photos this morning with those noctilucent clouds up above at around 3:45am.

[MossMan]

Hey Randy... the 00Z ECMWF keeps the rain mostly north of the border tomorrow afternoon. Maybe dinner on the deck again for you.

Yay!!

[MossMan]

Don’t we compare every upcoming winter to 1949-50?

Always aim high!

[TacomaWaWx]

This was a screenshot of a time lapse from my friends house down the street this morning...pretty incredible.

[TT-SEA]

EPS took away Tim’s July 4th megablowtorch.

 

 

Its been consistent with the overall pattern... but its like 1 degree cooler. 

 

 

 

 

I have said several times that looks like a tenuous set-up and it probably won't verify.

[Blizzard777]

This was a screenshot of a time lapse from my friends house down the street this morning...pretty incredible.

I’m totally hidden from enjoying any dawn to sunrise moments. Need to find a secluded local spot to just sit back and enjoy when I’m in the mood. 

 

59* 

[TacomaWaWx]

I’m totally hidden from enjoying any dawn to sunrise moments. Need to find a secluded local spot to just sit back and enjoy when I’m in the mood. 

 

59*

 

The time lapse video does the clouds more justice...couldn’t get it to post here though. I honestly live in an incredible for sunrises.I can still get pretty good sunset images here too...but I usually go to the west side of town or down to the waterfront to get a better angle!

[AlTahoe]

2010-11 was low key decent. Was very snowy up here February through April.

One of the all time great winters for the Lake Tahoe region. I recorded 310" of snow at my house that winter. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Already up to 64 after a low of 57...could be the warmest day of the year so far at this location.

[MossMan]

This was a screenshot of a time lapse from my friends house down the street this morning...pretty incredible.

I do miss the more wide open view at our old house, we had a view of the Cascades and would see some stunning sunrises. All I see is trees at our current place which I am okay with....We can just walk up to our neighbors at 700ft and one hell of a view of the water, Camano Island and north.

[Jesse]

Mild low of 61 this morning.

 

Up to 67 now, going to be a hot one today. Thinking about heading to the coast later on.

[El_Nina]

Hoping to pick up at least a fifth of rain next weekend.

[TacomaWaWx]

I do miss the more wide open view at our old house, we had a view of the Cascades and would see some stunning sunrises. All I see is trees at our current place which I am okay with....We can just walk up to our neighbors at 700ft and one hell of a view of the water, Camano Island and north.

Probably has one heck of a view up at 700’ looking west.

[Jesse]

Hoping to pick up at least a fifth of rain next weekend.

Another several shots of rain would be nice.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got down to 55F now up to 77F. Beautiful day.

[Kayla]

If it weren't for COVID I think Noctilucent clouds would have had a chance for top word of 2020.

[ShawniganLake]

Mild morning. Mostly cloudy and 73F here.

[Jesse]

That is a kool early July pattern on the longrange12zGFS. Which means pretty pleasant at face value.

[Omegaraptor]

Models are even ripping away the nice Saturday. Was kinda hoping that either Saturday or Sunday would end up dry and sunny... now it’s starting to look like neither of them will. Nice weather returns on Monday as per usual.

 

Having a bad feeling about the Fourth at this point...

[Jesse]

Models are even ripping away the nice Saturday. Was kinda hoping that either Saturday or Sunday would end up dry and sunny... now it’s starting to look like neither of them will. Nice weather returns on Monday as per usual.

Having a bad feeling about the Fourth at this point...

You’re what 16. Shouldn’t you be worried about driving and girls and tiktok at this stage of life?

[Timmy Supercell]

Jan will one day deliver again. But in that capacity down this way, probly never in our lifetimes to that extent.

 

3 years ago? 

 

I know, Eugene and Wilsonville gets the shaft a lot, but I think most of the PNW had an impressive January in 2017.

[Timmy Supercell]

Low of 56 this morning! Definitely will be a hot day. 

 

There are actually not many >60 or warmer lows in the summer here. Happens a few times annually.

[TT-SEA]

76 and sunny here.

[Jesse]

12z GFS ensembles looking good.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Low of 56 this morning! Definitely will be a hot day.

 

There are actually not many >60 or warmer lows in the summer here. Happens a few times annually.

When do you usually get the 60+ lows, late July into early August?

[Jesse]

Already just shy of 80 here. There were some cool looking high clouds earlier. Very summery sky.

[TT-SEA]

Models are even ripping away the nice Saturday. Was kinda hoping that either Saturday or Sunday would end up dry and sunny... now it’s starting to look like neither of them will. Nice weather returns on Monday as per usual.

 

Having a bad feeling about the Fourth at this point...

 

 

Quick update... the 12Z ECMWF does not show much rain for Saturday.   It also shows highs in the low 70s down there that day,

 

[TT-SEA]

Sunday will be the chilly, wet day of the weekend down in Oregon... and it looks like the same for most of western WA.

[TT-SEA]

Good news is that the cold, wet weather continues right into next week on the 12Z ECMWF... so its not just the weekend.

[Jesse]

Euro looks a lot less progressive with the ULL early next week. But the position of it could still give us some warm days, could be a good thunderstorm set up too depending on details.

[Timmy Supercell]

When do you usually get the 60+ lows, late July into early August?

 

I'd say the peak of convective season, so yeah that'd line up with around the first half of August. Usually get 60-65 lows in monsoonal flow setups.