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June 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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64 in Keizer.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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At this point... both the GFS and ECWMF show mostly sunny and mid to upper 70s for the 4th.  

 

12Z ECMWF also shows Thursday and Friday leading up to the holiday being about like today.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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At this point... both the GFS and ECWMF show mostly sunny and mid to upper 70s for the 4th.

 

12Z ECMWF also shows Thursday and Friday leading up the holiday being about like today.

Why are you so invested in a July 4th blowtorch?

 

What are you planning that cannot be accomplished during 65° mist?

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Why are you so invested in a July 4th blowtorch?

 

What are you planning that cannot be accomplished during 65° mist?

 

STFU.

 

I don't give a flying crap about blowtorch. The options in my area are likely going to be rain/cold (00Z ECMWF) or sunny/pleasant (12Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF). I am hoping for the latter... but either way it is what it is. We will try to find some sunshine that day if possible.

 

It sure as hell should not matter to you.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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STFU.

 

It sure as hell should not matter to you.

I didn’t say it mattered to me personally.

 

I was just curious..didn’t know if you had activities planned that required heat/dryness.

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I didn’t say it mattered to me personally.

 

I was just curious..didn’t know if you had activities planned that required heat/dryness.

 

Again... STFU.    Please.

 

Nothing requires heat.   I am just hoping to the see the sun and have it be dry.   I would enjoy 68 and sunny.   Sometimes it works out and sometimes it doesn't.    Why is it hard to understand wanting pleasant weather for a summer holiday?  Stop trolling.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil is rare form today.     Just let us discuss the models and our weather without injecting your hyperbole from 3,000 miles away.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Individual members aren’t out yet, but from the looks of it, there’s definitely more spread amongst the ensemble members for July 4th versus 00z.

 

Wavetrain itself hasn’t changed, though.

 

ZYtTeY4.png

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I guess the question is, how often do offshore/GOA ridge patterns produce warm Julys west of the cascades in the absence of a cyclone over NE-Canada?

 

I can’t find any solid cases in the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, but that doesn’t mean individual days (such as the 4th of July) can’t be warmer/drier than average.

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Individual members aren’t out yet, but from the looks of it, there’s definitely more spread amongst the ensemble members for July 4th versus 00z.

 

Wavetrain itself hasn’t changed, though.

 

ZYtTeY4.png

It will come down to the placement of a weak ULL. Devil is in the details. The ULL being to the north or west usually results in great summer weather here.

 

The 12Z EPS is definitely a little warmer than previous runs. Don't need really warm 850mb temps to have a sunny and pleasant day.

 

 

20200625-124458.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I guess the question is, how often do offshore/GOA ridge patterns produce warm Julys west of the cascades in the absence of a cyclone over NE-Canada?

 

I can’t find any solid cases in the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, but that doesn’t mean individual days (such as the 4th of July) can’t be warmer/drier than average.

A normal 4th here is in the low to mid 70s and dry. It only rains on a handful of days in July here normally. Although Cliff Mass has shown that the 4th of July is statistically the wettest day of the month in Seattle. Still... its normally dry.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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>

 

STFU

 

Back to grannies basement. Cheetos and Atari await you.

Waah! It’s gonna drizzle for 4 hours! Waah! Water should be banned! Waah!

 

And wtf is Atari?

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>

 

STFU

 

Back to grannies basement. Cheetos and Atari await you.

No idea why he assumes not wanting rain and cold weather in July means you want it to be scorching hot. But he does. We have many days in the summer that are not cold and rainy and not scorching hot. The majority of our summer days are like that.

 

Great discussion though! As usual.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sunny and 73 here now. A perfect summer day by Phil's standards... and mine.   But we should definitely not cheer for this weather.    :rolleyes:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It will come down to the placement of a weak ULL. Devil is in the details. The ULL being to the north or west usually results in great summer weather here.

 

The 12Z EPS is definitely a little warmer than previous runs. Don't need really warm 850mb temps to have a sunny and pleasant day.

 

 

20200625-124458.jpg

If that’s the case, then it’s probably not going to be resolved for awhile.

 

Aaaand of course it finds a way to torch here, even with the 2013-18 pattern now inverted. It always fooking does. The pattern doesn’t even matter anymore.

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If that’s the case, then it’s probably not going to be resolved for awhile.

 

And of course it finds a way to torch here. It always does.

 

 

Definitely won't be resolved for at least a few days.   The pattern this coming weekend was much easier to see from a long way out with a deep, cold trough descending down across the West.     Meandering ULLs cannot be accurately predicted until you get within 4 or 5 days at the earliest.   Just watching trends right now.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I didn’t say it mattered to me personally.

I was just curious..didn’t know if you had activities planned that required heat/dryness.

Good lord bro who doesn’t have plans outside on the 4th of July? what kind of an idiot would want sunshine and temps in the 70s here on the 4th? Lol. I don’t think anyone’s rooting for anomalous heat or anything just some sunshine in the 70s. It can literally rain any other day just hopefully not that one.

If the 4th was like today or the past few days have been around western WA in the mid 70s to low 80s we will all be happy.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Still looking good niña-wise and ANALog-wise for 20-21? I try to check in on it once a week but y’all give way better interpretations than I ever could.

  • Like 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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I have a Colecovision.

Commodore 64

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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Up to 81F and clear skies. Another beautiful day and the star watching should be really nice as the moon is still in its waxing crescent phase.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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Commodore 64

learned how to do basic programming on that machine.  Made a craps game that turned out alright but my favorite was “ Access to bouncing ball”!  It was a silly game where you had to guess the login password ( Tron motivation).  Once you figured out the random password a ball that I created would bounce around the screen!  My first graphic !!! Pretty huge back then...loll. Decided i didn’t want to be rich so gave up programming after that.  

 

 

Currently 80*

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Last day before Mask Day!!!

My wife apparently went shopping to stock up...From now on it will be all me doing the shopping! Easy Cheese and meat here we come!!!
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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