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July 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Models continue to show an extreme heat wave for the central plains in a week or so.  This morning's GFS has a high temp in Holdrege, NE of 116º next Sunday.  Wow!

 

Today's Euro only has 90s in Holdrege.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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So far the official high at GRR today is only 88. I say only because at Muskegon it looks like the high so far has been 92 and that makes the 5th day in a row it has been 90 or better at Muskegon. Even up at the Sault they now have had 5 days in a row in the upper 80's and one of the days was 90 so it has been rather hot for them. And at Marquette they now have have had 5 days in a row of 85 or better. Official at GRR the highs for the last 5 days are 88, 88, 89, 92, 94 and so far today 88. Here at my house I currently have 92 with a DP of 62.

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Models continue to show an extreme heat wave for the central plains in a week or so. This morning's GFS has a high temp in Holdrege, NE of 116º next Sunday. Wow!

I doubt it will get that high. Our all time high temp is 116 from 1934 before irrigation started around here. I just think moisture in the air from corn and irrigation may limit it. Not that it won’t be oppressive. From local forecasts the highest I have seen a week out is 103 next Sunday. Still not good for agricultural interests. Horrible for cattle feeders trying to keep them cool.

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With many fireworks show cancelled this year, leave it to the people to have their own shows...my neighborhood lit up like it wasn't anyone's business last night around dusk.  I'm in awe every year in the sights and sounds of fireworks....just love it!  Here's how the city looked like last night.

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1279604388861018112

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ORD topped out at 89F yesterday as the lake breeze kicked in earlier in the afternoon breaking the streak of 90's.  Doesn't look like we will get to break the all-time 90F streak of 11 days.  Next weekend looks cooler as temps dip into the upper 80's.

 

Positive trends in the models for the Thu/Fri period as rainfall chances are on the rise for NE/KS/IA.  Meanwhile, the Upper MW and our members WAY up north will cash in.  Along with the wetter look, temps are not as hot as previous runs for the Plains states.  Win-Win???

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Overnight model trends are showing an interesting cut-off trough centered near the OHV early the following week.  This has happened a couple times already this year as the pattern gets blocked up.  Relief from the Heat is in the cards for a lot of us on here starting around the 10th/11th.  Looks like many lawns/gardens will get well-timed rains as mother nature shall provides them with a "drink"...as is the case, however, there will be "hits & misses".

 

00z Ukie below through Friday...

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It was  a noisy night here in my area in all of my life time I do not recall that many private fireworks being shot off. On the weather front I had a low here at my house of 67 and it looks like the official low at GRR was 65.
Currently I have a reading of 71 with a DP of 67 while the last reading at GRR was 72 with a DP of 66.

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How could your lawns be turning brown already or quit growing after over 5" of rain not that long ago?!

:lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, it is 88F w a beautiful dew of 54F. It feels awesome outside. Ton of sunshine for the foreseeable future.Hopefully some t'stms by mid week and that will be isolated.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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A lot of fireworks last nite. Some were very good. Hopefully no injuries occurred or any fatalities w them.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Sunset here

 

2020-07-04.jpg

 

2020-07-04.jpg

Nice!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently sunny skies and hot w a temp at 89F and a very comfortable dewpt of 53F.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It now briefly touched 90 at Grand Rapids, Muskegon and Kalamazoo. It has not officially reached 90 yet at Holland. Here at my house I now have a reading of 94 with a DP of 64. At Muskegon this is the 7th day in a row of 90 or better and if they can officially reach 90 tomorrow they will tie their record for the longest number of consecutive days with highs of 90 or better. Muskegon has also now had 10 days with highs of 90 or better. Maybe its time to make sure their thermometer is reading right LOL.

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Hasn't grown much over the last several days. Later this looks to be a shot at some storms.

I mowed the lawn on Saturday again but some have a hint of brown. Haven’t had much rain the last few weeks where I live.

 

A nice band of outflow clouds from earlier storms to the north is moving south across central and western Iowa.

D2-C13306-FBF7-4637-B473-9-D468-F88-E095

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I just did a quick check. While it has been very warm to hot start to this July and there is a good chance that Muskegon could tie the record for the most 90 days in a row. But in fact this has been the 3 year in a row that July has started off on a warm to hot note. And here in Grand Rapids due to the somewhat cooler nights this year has the coolest mean for the first 5 days of the last 3 years. This year the 5 day mean is 79.2. Last year it was 80.0 and in 2018 it was 81.2. Today I will keep a eye on Muskegon to see if they do indeed tie that record set in 1947.

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@Hawkeye. I noticed a shower near your place in the afternoon or maybe evening by then. Did it maybe just miss to your south? I had a trace of rain in the afternoon.

 

Yeah, there were a couple tiny cells that popped up.  One was a couple miles west of me, the other a few miles north.  I did not see a sprinkle.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The GFS is showing high temps in Iowa a week out in the 70s.  That would be heavenly.  Meanwhile this weekend it's showing highs upwards of 118 degrees in Oklahoma.  Obviously nobody is buying that, but wow it could get real hot for the plains coming up.  

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Hazy skies w temps at 89F and dew at 62F which is still not all that bad. It will turn more humid though as the week progresses. This week will be a scorcher btw!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

438 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

 

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-070845-

Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-

St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-

438 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

 

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast

Michigan.

 

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 

An isolated thunderstorm is possible during mid afternoon through mid

evening. Any storms that develop are not expected to reach severe

limits but will be capable of brief heavy rainfall and wind gusts

around 30 mph while moving southeast at 15 mph.

 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

 

A hot summer pattern continues through mid week. High temperatures

in the lower to mid 90s are accompanied by increasing humidity each

day. These conditions may require a Heat Advisory or eventually an

Excessive Heat Warning.

 

Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday. Severe weather is

not expected with any of these storms.

 

A better chance for thunderstorms occurs by Friday when there may be

better potential for severe weather.

 

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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CF arrives Friday providing my area w the best chance for severe weather. Finally, a front will roll on thru. Highs in the 80s afterwards instead of the 90s. I'll take it! WHOOOhooooooo!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The GFS is showing high temps in Iowa a week out in the 70s.  That would be heavenly.  Meanwhile this weekend it's showing highs upwards of 118 degrees in Oklahoma.  Obviously nobody is buying that, but wow it could get real hot for the plains coming up.  

 

 

if the 70s pans out my air conditioning would be very happy.  As would I.   I don’t mind a few hot days here and there, but this ever day 90+ stinks

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Muskegon reached 90 between hourly readings today so they did indeed tied the record set in 1947 of 8 days in a row of 90 or better. Here is the break down. 91 on June 29, 92 on June 30, 91 July 1, 92 July 2, 90 July 3, 92 July 4, 91 July 5 and 90 today July 6.

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I just got back from my morning walk and yes today is the warmest it has been during this current warm streak. The current temperature here at my house is 74 with a DP of 67. The overnight low here was just 70. 

Same here...its already a soupy 85F with a 70F DP...

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Of course, yet another area of heavy precip weakens right as it gets to the F-M metro. This is an annoying trend. I have gotten maybe 6 drops of rain here since I moved despite 4 different rain chances.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Definitely heading towards the muggy side w dew nearing 68F. Actual temp attm its 83F and going for the 90s once again. Cant wait for the CF to arrive by Friday and provide some severe t'stms.

 

Heat Advisory issued for today as the humidity mixes in and there is also an "Excessive Heat Watch" from tomorrow thru Th. There is also an "Air Quality Alert."

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI403 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020Genesee-Lapeer-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Monroe-Including the cities of Flint, Lapeer, Howell, Pontiac, Warren,Ann Arbor, Detroit, and Monroe403 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY......EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGHTHURSDAY EVENING...* WHAT...For the Heat Advisory, heat index values near 100. For  the Excessive Heat Watch, dangerously hot conditions with heat  index values possibly exceeding 100 degrees.* WHERE...Genesee, Lapeer, Livingston, Oakland, Macomb,  Washtenaw, Wayne and Monroe Counties.* WHEN...For the Heat Advisory, until 8 AM EDT Wednesday. For  the Excessive Heat Watch, from Wednesday morning through  Thursday evening.* IMPACTS...Extreme heat and humidity will significantly increase  the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those  working or participating in outdoor activities, or those  vulnerable to heat stress over several days.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... High temperatures once again exceed 90  degrees today, for the 6th day in a row at Detroit and Flint,  and for the second day in a row with high humidity. Scattered to  numerous showers and thunderstorms bring little relief as wet  ground only adds to humidity while temperatures barely settle to  lows around 70 tonight. This is followed by the peak of  conditions Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures in the  mid 90s and heat index possibly exceeding 100. The cumulative  impact on heat health stress is expected to be considerable and  could require an Excessive Heat Warning until a cold front  moves into the area by Friday.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on thissituation. Be prepared to drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relativesand neighbors.Young children and pets should never be left unattended invehicles under any circumstances. This is especially true duringwarm or hot weather when car interiors can reach lethaltemperatures in a matter of minutes.Excessive Heat Watch
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI403 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020Genesee-Lapeer-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Monroe-Including the cities of Flint, Lapeer, Howell, Pontiac, Warren,Ann Arbor, Detroit, and Monroe403 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY......EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGHTHURSDAY EVENING...* WHAT...For the Heat Advisory, heat index values near 100. For  the Excessive Heat Watch, dangerously hot conditions with heat  index values possibly exceeding 100 degrees.* WHERE...Genesee, Lapeer, Livingston, Oakland, Macomb,  Washtenaw, Wayne and Monroe Counties.* WHEN...For the Heat Advisory, until 8 AM EDT Wednesday. For  the Excessive Heat Watch, from Wednesday morning through  Thursday evening.* IMPACTS...Extreme heat and humidity will significantly increase  the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those  working or participating in outdoor activities, or those  vulnerable to heat stress over several days.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... High temperatures once again exceed 90  degrees today, for the 6th day in a row at Detroit and Flint,  and for the second day in a row with high humidity. Scattered to  numerous showers and thunderstorms bring little relief as wet  ground only adds to humidity while temperatures barely settle to  lows around 70 tonight. This is followed by the peak of  conditions Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures in the  mid 90s and heat index possibly exceeding 100. The cumulative  impact on heat health stress is expected to be considerable and  could require an Excessive Heat Warning until a cold front  moves into the area by Friday.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on thissituation. Be prepared to drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relativesand neighbors.Young children and pets should never be left unattended invehicles under any circumstances. This is especially true duringwarm or hot weather when car interiors can reach lethaltemperatures in a matter of minutes.Air Quality AlertSt. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Monroe-Including the cities of Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren,Ann Arbor, Detroit, and Monroe958 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020...Air Quality Alert in effect for Tuesday July  7th...The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy hasdeclared Tuesday July 7th to be an action day for elevated levels ofozone. Pollutants are expected to be in the unhealthy for sensitivegroups range.The action day is in effect for the following Michigan counties...St. Clair...Livingston...Oakland...Macomb...Washtenaw...Wayne andMonroe.People and businesses are urged to avoid activities which lead toozone formation. These activities include...refueling vehicles ortopping off when refueling, using gasoline powered lawn equipmentand using charcoal lighter fluid. Positive activities include...biking to work, delaying or combining errands and using water basedpaints.It is recommended that active children and adults, and people withrespiratory diseases such as asthma, limit prolonged outdoorexertion.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I'm rather optimistic for those in NE and the KC region to see multiple rounds of storm action starting Thu-Sun as multiple storm clusters are poised to develop on the periphery of the Heat Dome.  In fact, this pattern may extend itself into the following week as nearly every overnight model run has trended wetter.  We will be entering the summer version of the LRC which brought us an active pattern.  While it will be hot during this period, the heat may be interrupted by occasional stormier periods that provide a reprieve from the Heat.

 

00z EPS through Sunday...

 

 

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