July 2020 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

What a difference a day makes.  I woke up with a sweaty face this morning and didn't expect such a warm night.  The DP wasn't that bad yesterday but noticeably on the rise today ahead of the approaching storms.  It's a much warmer start to the day at 73F with a DP of 65F, however, there is a nice southerly breeze which is nice.

[Tom]

I'm not to enthusiastic about getting much, if any, storm action today as the good ol' "Chicago Split" may be in the cards.  I actually don't mind getting missed to the south because our farmers down in MO/IL need the rain badly.  Over the last 30 days, notice how dry it has been in MO and C IL.

 

 

 

From the Ozarks of MO to St. Louie, storms should be firing up later today...

 

[Tom]

Nature gave almost the entire state of KS a nice drink of water last night and continues today...

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=ictrad&java=script&mode=realtime&frames=100&interval=5&year=2020&month=7&day=14&hour=20&minute=55

[Tom]

Recent runs of the HRRR showing a nasty bowed line of storms rolling through C IL....

 

[Bryan1117]

Nature gave almost the entire state of KS a nice drink of water last night and continues today...

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=ictrad&java=script&mode=realtime&frames=100&interval=5&year=2020&month=7&day=14&hour=20&minute=55

And yet we cannot even buy a decent rain shower or storm at this point in East Central Nebraska.

 

EDIT: Finally seeing at least some light rain here, enough the wet the pavement at least. Hoping some of the heavier showers to the south can make it north this morning... please Mother Nature haha!

[james1976]

Cloudy and 64 this morning. Not expecting much rain up here today but I hope it stays cloudy and cool. Only picked up 0.32" yesterday evening.

[Hawkeye]

The HRRR has trended much wetter for southeast Iowa today as the northeast Kansas MCV heads northeastward.  The latest run even has 0.75" up to Cedar Rapids.  I'm skeptical of that, but we should get something.

 

As Tom said, some very dry areas to the southwest received a much-needed soaker overnight.  In addition to KS, parts of IA/MO did as well.

[Stormy]

The WRF- ARW models and others did a good job yesterday. Was hoping they'd be wrong. But I like the latest HRRR for se.Ia. for today. Most of the other CAMS aren't great at all. I'm afraid it will weaken as it moves eastward or stay south.

 

I had very light rain most of the night but not even 0.20"!

[Stormy]

The WRF- ARW models and others did a good job yesterday. Was hoping they'd be wrong. But I like the latest HRRR for se.Ia. for today. Most of the other CAMS aren't great at all. I'm afraid it will weaken as it moves eastward or stay south.

I had very light rain most of the night but not even 0.20"!

Oops, I checked my digital gauge again and it's right at 0.20" now. It usually shows about the same as my other gauges after I calibrated it a few months ago.

[james1976]

Rain has expanded further north. Looks like I may get some today after all.

[Niko]

Gorgeous morning outside b4 the real deal arrives later in the week.

 

 

Attm, 78F w a dew of 71F. It is already feeling muggy outside. RF is at 84F.

[Niko]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI537 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-160900-Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-537 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightShowers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are possible tonight as anupper level disturbance tracks through Southeast Michigan. Severeweather is not anticipated at this time. However, locally heavyrainfall will be possible leading to ponding and localized flooding.Storm motion will be from west to east at 25 mph..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through TuesdayShowers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are possible Thursday morningas an upper level disturbance exits into southern Ontario. Severeweather is not anticipated at this time. However, locally heavyrainfall will be possible leading to ponding and localized flooding.Storm motion will be from west to east at 25 mph.Scattered thunderstorms are expected on Saturday and Sunday. Severeweather is possible with damaging wind gusts being the primarythreat. Additionally, heat indices will approach 100 F Sundayafternoon increasing the risk for heat stress.

At least some rainfall will come and hopefully some severe weather by the weekend.

[Niko]

Quick Note:

 

Dtw has a shot of breaking the 1955 record of being in the 90s more than 17x for the month of July. I think it stands a very good chance.

[westMJim]

It is currently cloudy warm and somewhat humid 80 here.

[Hawkeye]

It appears very little rain will fall in Iowa today outside of the far southeast.  The 3k NAM and HRRR runs, yesterday, totally nailed how all of this would play out.  A few of the globals were pretty accurate as well.

[westMJim]

So far there have been more days with highs of 90 or better then usual. Let’s see how this July stands as to the record number of says of 90 or better around the state of Michigan. Here in West Michigan so far Grand Rapids has had 8 days of 90 or better the record for July is 18 last set in 2012 (also in 1921 and 1901) At Muskegon so far 8 the record is 13 set in 1955. At Kalamazoo so far 9 the record is 25 set in 1921.  At Lansing so far 7 the record is 19 set in 1868 in more recent times 18 set in 1955. To the east at Detroit 8 the record is 17 set in 1955 at Flint 9 the record is 20 set in 1921 and at Saginaw 7 the record is 17 set in 1955. Up north at Alpena 7 so far the record there is 11 in 1987. At Houghton Lake 7 the record is 17 set in 1921. At the Sault 2 so far their record for July is 11 set in 1921. At Marquette they have not recorded a day of 90 or better yet this year. Their record for any July is 8 set in 1916.

[bud2380]

Do you thing the GFS ever gets lonely on GFS island?  

 

Dewpoints for Saturday evening over 80 over almost all of Iowa.  No way.  Maybe some sporadic places could approach 80, but widespread 80s with some as high as 82?  The Euro has mid to upper 70s and that seems far more realistic. 

 

 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Do you thing the GFS ever gets lonely on GFS island?  

 

Dewpoints for Saturday evening over 80 over almost all of Iowa.  No way.  Maybe some sporadic places could approach 80, but widespread 80s with some as high as 82?  The Euro has mid to upper 70s and that seems far more realistic. 

 

I don't want to know what that feels like.

[james1976]

Do you thing the GFS ever gets lonely on GFS island?

 

Dewpoints for Saturday evening over 80 over almost all of Iowa. No way. Maybe some sporadic places could approach 80, but widespread 80s with some as high as 82? The Euro has mid to upper 70s and that seems far more realistic.

 

 

 

 

We've hit 80 before but that widespread is prolly not gonna happen

[Bryan1117]

Picked up less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall this morning, however considering how stubborn this dry weather pattern has been lately, it almost seemed like a deluge. We have to take what we can get at this point in this area.

 

Can’t complain about much else though, it’s 72 degrees on July 14th at noon... feels absolutely amazing outside!

[Stormy]

I usually have max dew in the low 80°s about twice per summer, but my new station shows a bit higher (likely to high) so it has already hit 80° a time or two this year.

 

I'm sure hoping that defo band of heavier rain can make it up to my location, but I'm not sure about that happening even though it's ever so slowly creeping northward. Still have very light rain continuing.

[Stormy]

Picked up less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall this morning, however considering how stubborn this dry weather pattern has been lately, it almost seemed like a deluge. We have to take what we can get at this point in this area.

Can’t complain about much else though, it’s 72 degrees on July 14th at noon... feels absolutely amazing outside!

Same here although you're probably drier than I have been. Barely 0.40" here so far this month.

[james1976]

Picked up 0.42" today. Wasn't expecting that. 0.74" event total

[Stormy]

Only 0.41” here since last evening. Still have dry spots beneath the plants. A lot more rain one county to my se. At least it’s that much

[Bryan1117]

Same here although you're probably drier than I have been. Barely 0.40" here so far this month.

We have only picked up about 0.60" so far this month in Omaha, so not much better at all... however Eastern Iowa fared much better in June with rainfall than here. Omaha will be over 7 inches short of its normal annual rainfall total by this weekend... so we will have a LONG way to go to make up that deficit. 

 

Thankfully the weather pattern starts looking a little better for us later this weekend with decent and fairly widespread convective events showing up for Sunday and Monday nights after the brief heatwave coming later this week. That is if you can believe the longer-term models (which I don't right now).  

[Stormy]

I’m up to 0.52” for the month with today’s rain. Yes June was very wet in eastern Iowa though not at my location though it wasn’t dry either. Hopefully you and I can score a heavy storm next week.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings with a very detailed disco this afternoon. Kind of echoed what I have been saying about getting missed by many rains. They mentioned the haves and have nots of rain this summer in the area. Counties along I80 to Highway 6 in Central Nebraska are the have nots this summer. Of course this includes my county. Yards look terrible. Irrigated crops look great, but are using a lot of water. And right on cue, some of the hottest days of the summer are forecasted for Friday and Saturday. Going to make a bad situation worse.

[Hawkeye]

0.09" in my yard.

[Minny_Weather]

A quick thunderstorm just woke me up, giving me about 5 minutes of solid heavy rain.

I'm flying out West today and I'll be on the road for the next 2 weeks.

[Tom]

It was an active wx day for downstate IL where a few tornado reports were reported and a lot of flooding rains fell in some locals (3-8" of rain).  As expected, no storms up my way but another good soaking fell along a corridor right through the city and burbs.  I managed to score 0.60" while some spots approached 1"+.  The system yesterday felt like I was tracking the defo band of a lower lakes cutter.  You could see the spin on radar and on satellite.

 

A quick thunderstorm just woke me up, giving me about 5 minutes of solid heavy rain.
I'm flying out West today and I'll be on the road for the next 2 weeks.

Have fun out there and enjoy the beauty of the Rocky mountain west!  I love the mountains and may be taking a road trip out to Colorado in early August.  Send some pics while your out there.  Be safe!

[Tom]

I like what I'm seeing for our E NE peeps for what could finally "break the ice" in terms of any beneficial rain fall starting Sun night into mid next week and later in the week.  Multiple chances of MCS's as an active period continues to be the theme among the models and fits the pattern I've been waiting for.

 

00z EPS...

 

 

Besides the precip, temps have been tempered this weekend by a lot compared to what the Euro was showing a week ago for this weekend period.  Like it or not, the GFS/GEFS have been doing much better in the 7-14 day sniffing out the precip/temp pattern. 

 

00z GEFS...very similar...

 

[Tom]

Yet another cool and crisp morning across parts of Wisco and the U.P. with temps in the low 50's...models are seeing a couple more such refreshing days later next week Wed-Sat.  Is this a theme going forward?  Hottest part of Summer hitting now for the parts of our Sub???  Boy, I'd love to see that happen to be honest.

 

Let's see what the latest JMA weeklies have to say for the next 30 days....

 

Week 2 fires up the NE PAC ridge which allows the NW flow to continue and AN precip that follows...that's a nice wet signal for many of us on here.

 

 

 

Temps...seasonal to slightly AN in some places...

 

 

 

 

 

Week 3-4....wet pattern continues and a larger area of normal temps that lean towards the idea that maybe, just maybe, the extreme Heat we have seen could be in the rear view mirror.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[james1976]

Perfect 54° this morning! Had the windows open all night. Taste of Autumn!

[Tom]

Perfect 54° this morning! Had the windows open all night. Taste of Autumn!

Now that must feel refreshing!

[westMJim]

Had just 0.27" of rain here overnight. At this time a light mist with a temperature of 66.

[Hawkeye]

Mason City hit 44º this morning.  Wow!  That's not easy to do in mid July.

[james1976]

Mason City hit 44º this morning. Wow! That's not easy to do in mid July.

Wow! I didnt hear that

[Niko]

The air outside is fully saturated as dew N temp are at 71F. Yep, it is muggy outside. Had some beneficial rainfall last nite. Anything helps at this point, as my area is "Abnormally Dry." Next shot of severe weather this time will be on Sunday as a CF arrives.

 

Btw: the 90s will not continue all of next week, as temps fall into the 80s for highs by midweek. So, this "Heatwave" will not be extended at least. It will still be a 4 day stretch to say the least.

[Niko]

A quick thunderstorm just woke me up, giving me about 5 minutes of solid heavy rain.

I'm flying out West today and I'll be on the road for the next 2 weeks.

Raindrops hitting my window woke me up as well.  No severe weather, just heavy rain.

[Niko]

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

522 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020
 

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-170900-

Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-

St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-

522 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020
 

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast

Michigan.
 

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
 

Showers continue with perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two later

today as low pressure tracks along the state line. Severe weather is

not anticipated at this time. Motion will be from west to east at 25

mph. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible leading to ponding and

localized flooding.
 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday
 

Isolated thunderstorms are expected on Saturday, becoming more

widespread on Sunday. Severe weather is possible with damaging wind

gusts being the primary threat. Additionally, heat indices may

approach or exceed 100F Sunday afternoon increasing the risk for

heat related illnesses.