July 2020 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

@Sparky...love the photos!  Keep 'em coming...gorgeous landscape...btw, your garden and fields are immaculate!  You must put your heart and sole into your garden and crop.  The rolling hills of Iowa are a vivid memory of when I drove through back in Nov '16.

[CentralNebWeather]

[Stormy]

[james1976]

After the weekend heat wave we are back to low-mid 80s and lower humidity next week.

[Tom]

@Sparky, Amen to that!  That was exactly my thought when I was looking at your photos. It brings a sort of element of peace into your soul by looking at those photos.  Nature's beauty my friend!

 

Meantime, it's nice to wake up to a cool and comfy breeze this morning out of the NW.  Currently, it's 65F/57F with some upper 50's not far into the NW burbs.  I'm sure you guys out in the rural lands are enjoying this break from the heat/humidity.

 

Took a peak at the weather in the "valley of the sun" and FINALLY, the Monsoon has arrived in the valley!  The moisture in recent days has been focused more towards the eastern part of the state and into NM/CO.  In fact, I remember when I drove back home in early July, I recall the eastern part of the state getting some scattered showers and into NM.  Good to see the forecast showing moisture in the valley over the next few days.

[Tom]

The weekends heat is not looking as impressive as it was being advertised a few days ago.  Some models have it barely hitting 90F here on Sat and quickly ending the "brief" heat spell Sunday night into Monday as the summer seasons strongest CF passes through the Sub.  I'm liking the forecast for all of next week.  Prime time wx and plenty of sunshine with comfortable DP levels. 

 

Before that, however, nature may provide many of us a nice "drink" Sun-Mon period.

[Tom]

After looking into the latest LR model guidance, I'm really digging the pattern the models are advertising and nearly ALL of us across the central CONUS are looking to benefit.  Is the Summer's longest stretch of Summer Heat/Humidity in the rear view mirror???  I'm tellin' ya, that's been on my mind for a couple weeks now and the JMA/CFSv2 weeklies are agreeing.  Cooler and wetter may indeed be....Better????

 

Take a gander what the JMA is suggesting and its not backing down from a rather nice cool down for Week 2....

 

Week 2 temp/precip...central/southern CONUS pocket of cooler wx looks likely....

 

 

 

 

 

 

Week 3-4....August has a shot to flip the AN trend in temps for many of us....this will prob trend cooler next run...of note, and prob an important factor that will keep the central CONUS cool, is the active ATL Tropics as well as along the EC.  Could we see tropical systems converge with CF's coming down out of Canada???

 

 

 

 

Lastly, the CFSv2 is much cooler and wetter overall....the Euro Weeklies come out later this afternoon and I'm pretty confident it will also follow recent trends.  Last night's 00z EPS has a classic summer blocking pattern that allows a deep trough to develop across our board.

 

 

[Stormy]

The weekends heat is not looking as impressive as it was being advertised a few days ago. Some models have it barely hitting 90F here on Sat and quickly ending the "brief" heat spell Sunday night into Monday as the summer seasons strongest CF passes through the Sub. I'm liking the forecast for all of next week. Prime time wx and plenty of sunshine with comfortable DP levels.

 

 

Before that, however, nature may provide many of us a nice "drink" Sun-Mon period.

I sure hope that map verifies!

 

@Sparky...love the photos! Keep 'em coming...gorgeous landscape...btw, your garden and fields are immaculate! You must put your heart and sole into your garden and crop. The rolling hills of Iowa are a vivid memory of when I drove through back in Nov '16.

Thanks for the kind words!

[St Paul Storm]

A crisp 53F here this morning. The lake has streamers rising from it because of the temp difference with the warm water. Feels like Fall. But not so fast.....yet another excessive heat watch posted for the weekend here. These ridiculous hot temps always happen on the weekend, which is no good for outdoor projects. 

[St Paul Storm]

@Sparky......your pics made my morning. Simply beautiful! 

[Tom]

A crisp 53F here this morning. The lake has streamers rising from it because of the temp difference with the warm water. Feels like Fall. But not so fast.....yet another excessive heat watch posted for the weekend here. These ridiculous hot temps always happen on the weekend, which is no good for outdoor projects. 

Wow, streamers this early in the season???  I usually see them when its Musky fishing season later in Sept but then again you live hear a lake and prob see it more often than not.  As you said, this morning does feel crisp when I stepped outside to check out my garden.  

[St Paul Storm]

Wow, streamers this early in the season???  I usually see them when its Musky fishing season later in Sept but then again you live hear a lake and prob see it more often than not.  As you said, this morning does feel crisp when I stepped outside to check out my garden.  

 

The streamers are definitely early. But I think it mostly has to do with how incredibly warm the lake water is. Temp about 15ft from my shore at a depth of 1' is 82F.  I've never recorded that warm of a temp. 

[Tom]

The streamers are definitely early. But I think it mostly has to do with how incredibly warm the lake water is. Temp about 15ft from my shore at a depth of 1' is 82F.  I've never recorded that warm of a temp. 

That speaks of how warm it has been this month and the rest of the GL's which are largely ALL running AN.  I'm looking forward to the cooler temps next week.

[westMJim]

We are now in the last 3rd of July and this has been a rather warm July indeed. The current mean at Grand Rapids is 76.3 that is good for +3.8. It now looks like there has been a back off in the heat for this weekend and more so for next week as well. The 90's are not indicated now for the weekend. That said August is still looking to be very warm to at times hot but that too can change. Generally weather patterns change every 45 to 60 days so we are due for a pattern change.

[St Paul Storm]

That speaks of how warm it has been this month and the rest of the GL's which are largely ALL running AN.  I'm looking forward to the cooler temps next week.

 

You and me both buddy. I can handle heat, but the humidity takes a toll on my body. Next week should be amazing. 

[Niko]

Skies are mostly to partly cloudy , but still quite humid outside w temps at 72F/22C n Dew at 72F/22C. The air is almost saturated w 100% moisture.

[Niko]

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

357 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020
 

MIZ055-061>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-240800-

Sanilac-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-

Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-

357 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020
 

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast

Michigan.
 

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
 

No hazardous weather is expected.
 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday
 

The next best chance for thunderstorms will be late Sunday afternoon

into Monday.

 

[Niko]

As I was going over some hvy paperwork yesterday late afternoon, a very hvy downpour came outta nowhere. Small little cell developed near Macomb, or just slightly NE of my area. Felt good seeing it.

 

Next shot of severe weather comes Sunday as a CF approaches. Near seasonable temps and drier air arrive for next week. Cant really say "Cooler" because average highs still feels warm.

[james1976]

A crisp 53F here this morning. The lake has streamers rising from it because of the temp difference with the warm water. Feels like Fall. But not so fast.....yet another excessive heat watch posted for the weekend here. These ridiculous hot temps always happen on the weekend, which is no good for outdoor projects.

I'll be up there this weekend. Yup I'm over the weekend heat waves. Nice 57 this morning.

[Bryan1117]

Severe drought now showing up in Western and Central parts of Iowa northwest of Des Moines. The Omaha metro area is still listed in moderate drought as this week’s “lighter than expected” rains didn’t help all that much, especially with four more dry and hot days coming up. The annual rainfall deficits continue to grow in many areas here.

 

Can we finally get some REAL relief in East-Central/Northeast Nebraska and Western Iowa? The models for early next week look promising, but where have I seen this before LOL!?! I have a hunch that the heaviest rains will drench Southeastern Nebraska once again.

[St Paul Storm]

I'll be up there this weekend. Yup I'm over the weekend heat waves. Nice 57 this morning.

 

Nice, safe travels!  I'm sure you're aware, but statewide face mask mandate goes into effect at midnight tonight for the entire state of MN. Just an FYI since you're coming from out of state. 

[bud2380]

Absolutely perfect weather right now.  Hard to believe this is July.  Highs reaching the low 80s with low humidity and light winds.  You can't get any better than this anytime of year let alone in July.  

[CentralNebWeather]

We have a 75 dew right before noon. I’ve been to Miami, this is what it felt like. Disgustingly humid.

[bud2380]

Euro with some pretty healthy amounts of rain Sunday afternoon into the overnight for a large amount of Iowa.  

 

[Niko]

Its beautiful outside. Temp at 79F. Hopefully, after my zoom meetings, I will have time to get outside.

[bud2380]

12z Euro holding firm with the rain later in the day Sunday in Iowa.

 

 

[james1976]

Nice, safe travels! I'm sure you're aware, but statewide face mask mandate goes into effect at midnight tonight for the entire state of MN. Just an FYI since you're coming from out of state.

I think I read that somewhere. Thanks for the reminder though! I always travel with a couple anyway so I'll be prepared.

[Minny_Weather]

It was very Midwestern here in Missoula. It rained and it was in the upper 70s while it was doing so. It is now 73°F and clearing up.

[Tom]

Happy Friday all!  What a stunning day yesterday.  As Bud stated, you can't beat a day with temps in the low 80's, sunshine and light winds.  Top notch weather for sure and we are expecting almost a carbon copy today here albeit slightly warmer by a degree or two.  Can we expect more of this type of weather???  Not gonna lie, but I love it when a plan comes together and the models begin to ALL agree on trend in the LR. 

 

Gosh, there's so much going on in the world of the wx with the Tropics coming alive, a wet pattern that is to develop next week for the central/southern Plains and a long stretch of comfortable temps for the GL's/MW.....let me dive in!

 

First off, the latest drought monitor shows us where we need some rain....well, guess what???  Nature shall deliver!  I posted the 00z EPS precip anomaly and its a sight for sore eyes for the central ag belt.

 

 

[Tom]

Yesterday's Euro Weeklies run certainly portrayed a definitive flip in the wx pattern for nearly all of our Sub compared to the first half of Summer.  My hunch was right and the model has trended decidedly cooler and very wet for our ag belt regions.  Our lone member down in OK will absolutely be delighted to see these maps.  I would imagine this is something he wouldn't mind playing out for the month of August.  

 

There's some rather peculiar data starting to show up in the modeling for the LR.  A sneak peak towards early Sept and the Labor Day period off the Euro is a pattern that would show case a much different one compared to the string of Septembers we have seen in recent years.  The blocking patterns showing up on the west coast and east coast of North America are intriguing heading into Autumn.

 

Both the CFSv2 and Euro are showing a significant cool shot Week 2 in August...I didn't post a map off the Euro weeklies, but I'll tell you its definitely seeing the same thing.

 

[Tom]

Woah, now that is a trend, that would be my friend for the month of August....wowza!  Looks like nature is going to churn up the atmosphere for our central members and farmers!  Hang in there @ CentralNeb and our NE members, August may be your month.

[Niko]

Attm, its sunny and gorgeous w temps at 64F/18C, D 64F/18C w 100% humidity. Saturated air! A lot of morning dew out there.

[Niko]

Today marks the hottest day in history for Detroit when 105F was reported back in 1934.

[westMJim]

Today marks the hottest day in history for Detroit when 105F was reported back in 1934.

Here is a fun fact. I had to look it up to be sure. But that reading of 105 was taken at Metro Airport. Before that the observations were taken at City Airport and Willow Run but in 1934 the official observations moved to Wayne County Airport (now Detroit Metro)

[westMJim]

So far this summer has been warmer than average and we have had what can be said more than average number of 90 days. Well here is how we stand as of July 24. At Grand Rapids there have been 13 days of 90 or better. The mean since records have been started at GRR is guess what 13 the 30 year average is 11. At Muskegon they have had many more than average 90 days this year with 13 so far and their mean all time and 30 year average days are both 3 the record number there is 20 in 1955. To the east at Lansing they have recorded officially 11 days of 90 or better. There the average number since records started in guess what 11 and their 30 year average is 9. So depending on how many more days of 90 or better we have this summer we may or may not be above the 100 year average at Grand Rapids and Lansing but will be much above both averages at Muskegon.

[Niko]

Here is a fun fact. I had to look it up to be sure. But that reading of 105 was taken at Metro Airport. Before that the observations were taken at City Airport and Willow Run but in 1934 the official observations moved to Wayne County Airport (now Detroit Metro)

Awesome.....

[Niko]

Mostly sunny skies currently w a temp of 79F. Humidity is at noticeable levels, in the mid 60s. Splendid day outside!

[CentralNebWeather]

Very interesting graphic from NWS Hastings showing the rain deficit for Central Nebraska vs. other areas that are doing wonderfully. My area to Hastings is the hardest hit in terms of below normal precipitation.

 

https://twitter.com/nwshastings/status/1286756416611467264?s=21

[CentralNebWeather]

5:30 pm, temp of 92, dew of 76, heat index of 104. This has been the most oppressive summer I can remember. I know we’ve had hotter summers, but the heat and humidity combination with very few breaks has been difficult for many.

[CentralNebWeather]

Anniversary of the hottest day in Nebraska history, July 24, 1934.

https://twitter.com/ntvskboughton/status/1286795205488848901?s=21