July 2020 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Well......this could be a problem. @CentralNeb. let me know how bad you get it if your still up! Sounds like it means business! 

 

At 939 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line

extending from 11 miles southwest of Callaway to 6 miles north of

Eustis to near Medicine Creek Reservoir State Recreation Area, moving

east at 35 mph.

 

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

Nasty!  I'm afraid this one left a mark...seeing lots of wind reports in C NE and near North Platte but it looks like E NE missed out on the action...

[Tom]

It's another stunning sunrise today along with cool temps in the low 60's with a DP in the upper 50's.  You can feel the crispness in the air.  Gotta enjoy this because the Heat and Humidity build back in late week as we torch over the weekend.  Before that, however, looking forward to getting another round of possible severe wx and heavy rain across N IL tomorrow.

[Tom]

This is a good sign as the EPS is trending wetter each run and pressing south each run with AN precip anomalies.  I got a feeling that the period between Sun-Fri of next week there will be quite an active period of Severe Wx across the board, north & east of the KC region.  My gut says this may be the best signal all summer for daily storms as the "Ring of Fire" goes into over drive.

 

On a side note, are the models giving us a clue for what we may be seeing down the road in terms of blocking as we head into Autumn/Winter???  That voice in my head is starting to ponder on that idea.  

 

Meantime, suddenly the CFSv2 has turned quite cooler over the next 30 days and wetter were its cool.

 

[Bryan1117]

Nasty! I'm afraid this one left a mark...seeing lots of wind reports in C NE and near North Platte but it looks like E NE missed out on the action...

Once again, not a drop here. Looks like tonight’s action will mostly be in Iowa or off to the south, hmm where have I seen this story before? It’s tough to get precipitation when you are this dry, and with the big heat coming in later this week things could get worse around here.

[Tom]

Once again, not a drop here. Looks like tonight’s action will mostly be in Iowa or off to the south, hmm where have I seen this story before? It’s tough to get precipitation when you are this dry, and with the big heat coming in later this week things could get worse around here.

Its really unfortunate your area is missing out on the action.  As a wx enthusiast, I know how discouraging that must feel!  I will say, though, next week is looking very interesting for the I-80 corridor.  Might this be the pattern E NE has been waiting for???  I think so.

[westMJim]

West Michigan now has had two days in a row of very pleasant summer weather. The low here at my house was 58 and the official low at Grand Rapids was 59

[St Paul Storm]

picked up just under 1" of rain in about 25 minutes earlier this morning. Looks like highs today barely make it into the 70s. 

[Bryan1117]

Its really unfortunate your area is missing out on the action. As a wx enthusiast, I know how discouraging that must feel! I will say, though, next week is looking very interesting for the I-80 corridor. Might this be the pattern E NE has been waiting for??? I think so.

Fingers crossed! I have seen “good news“ on the models precipitation-wise that have failed to happen multiple times this spring and summer (as bad as it’s been in a while). It’s weather, things will eventually come around for us again at some point.

[bud2380]

NWS has an 80% chance of rain tonight, but the NAM and 3K NAM have storms firing all around CR/Iowa City tonight into tomorrow.

 

 

[bud2380]

HRRR a little more  generous, but also agrees with southern Iowa getting hit hard late tonight into tomorrow morning.

 

 

[gabel23]

Nasty! I'm afraid this one left a mark...seeing lots of wind reports in C NE and near North Platte but it looks like E NE missed out on the action...

Yep, nothing here but places out around north Platte got hit pretty hard! The cap just stopped the storms in its track.

[james1976]

This is a good sign as the EPS is trending wetter each run and pressing south each run with AN precip anomalies. I got a feeling that the period between Sun-Fri of next week there will be quite an active period of Severe Wx across the board, north & east of the KC region. My gut says this may be the best signal all summer for daily storms as the "Ring of Fire" goes into over drive.

 

On a side note, are the models giving us a clue for what we may be seeing down the road in terms of blocking as we head into Autumn/Winter??? That voice in my head is starting to ponder on that idea.

 

Meantime, suddenly the CFSv2 has turned quite cooler over the next 30 days and wetter were its cool.

I'm liking how that looks

[Hawkeye]

HRRR a little more  generous, but also agrees with southern Iowa getting hit hard late tonight into tomorrow morning.

I've noticed the model trend of keeping the best rain north and west of our area tonight and then south tomorrow.  We'll see.  It'd be nice to get something decent, although we don't really need it.

[CentralNebWeather]

Nasty! I'm afraid this one left a mark...seeing lots of wind reports in C NE and near North Platte but it looks like E NE missed out on the action...

Nope. Fell apart as it crossed into my county. It is just comical now. Got a whopping 0.20”. I could write books on the amount of times storms fall apart in my area. We have no mountains or hills. Plus these complexes are coming into very humid air. I looked at radar estimates and we were missed again north and south.

[CentralNebWeather]

Yep, nothing here but places out around north Platte got hit pretty hard! The cap just stopped the storms in its track.

It looked so promising. Farmers are as frustrated as I am with the lack of rainfall. This weekend the heat comes back with a vengeance.

[Stormy]

NWS has an 80% chance of rain tonight, but the NAM and 3K NAM have storms firing all around CR/Iowa City tonight into tomorrow.

 

 

Probably because I live right in that dry slot. Lol But that’s just a model run that probably will and I sure hope changes!

[Hawkeye]

The precip pattern tonight/tomorrow on the models is not a fluke.  It's a consistent pattern.  The storms tonight will hit a wall over eastern Iowa, then tomorrow a disturbance will mostly pass south.

 

The new Euro has the exact same look.

 

[Niko]

Spectacular day today w temps in the 70s and low humidity. Too bad more heat n humidity comin.

[Niko]

Attm, 77F under deep blue skies.

[snowstorm83]

The hottest day of the year will likely be on my birthday (Saturday). There was also a bad heat wave around this time last year. Sorry guys, it my fault, lolz. 

[Niko]

Best shot of any rainfall comes on Wed and Saturday. Other than that, it remains bone-dry for my area. Severe weather looks better over the weekend than on wed-Th timeframe. We will see!! Hopefully Ma Nature can provide the goods! 

[St Paul Storm]

Up to 1.2" so far on the day.  Currently 62F.  For real.  

[Hawkeye]

Today's Euro has nightly MCS action across the region beginning this weekend.

 

[Tom]

It’s been a gorgeous day with filtered sunshine from whisps of cirrus clouds. Currently 84F/60F, very comfortable while lying down on my deck enjoying the birds chirping and a nice southerly breeze. Nice way to relax after pounding some homemade tacos for lunch.

[Minny_Weather]

The hottest day of the year will likely be on my birthday (Saturday). There was also a bad heat wave around this time last year. Sorry guys, it my fault, lolz. 

I forgot we have the same birthday lol

[bud2380]

Heat indexes look to be well over 100 over all of Iowa Saturday.  I'd expect heat advisories to be issued late this week.  

[bud2380]

18z NAM changed course and decided it's going to pummel eastern Iowa tomorrow.

 

 

[Niko]

First 90s arrive Friday and will continue until next Wednesday or maybe a little beyond that. I think Sunday will be the hottest day where temps will be in the mid to upper 90s and RF likely  >100 .

 

Would not be surprised if "Excessive Heat Advisory" is posted by the weekend for my area.

[Hawkeye]

18z NAM changed course and decided it's going to pummel eastern Iowa tomorrow.

 

 

The 3k NAM is very different.  I think the Cedar Rapids area may be lucky to get a half inch from this.

[james1976]

Storms really popping in IA. Gonna try to cut the grass before storms hit.

[Stormy]

The 3k NAM is very different.  I think the Cedar Rapids area may be lucky to get a half inch from this.

Judging by the current radar C.R. looks to potentially be in a good spot.

[Stormy]

18z NAM changed course and decided it's going to pummel eastern Iowa tomorrow.

 

 

That would be good for me,but not so much for you others that are wetter. The ground has ever increasing cracks here and the lawns are pretty brown though it has been worse. I think grass stays green longer in rural areas than in residential or cities that are surrounded by hot cement unless there are mature trees providing shade. Hopefully those yet dryer areas west of Des Moines can pick up some heavy rainfall too.

[Stormy]

Clouds have rapidly increased here. Not long ago the storm looked far in the horizon with full sunshine.

[Stormy]

Maybe these storms further east are hitting a wall or at least not as potent as earlier.

[Niko]

Attm, 79F w a dew of 56F. Cannot get any better than this.

 

Mind you, this is the hottest time of the year. Our average high has stopped climbing. Averages will start falling by months end.

[Stormy]

Here’s the latest WPC Met Watch MPD

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=487&yr=2020

[Hawkeye]

Maybe these storms further east are hitting a wall or at least not as potent as earlier.

 

Most models had the storms this evening, and overnight, going poof as they try to enter east-central Iowa.  So far, they are correct.

[Stormy]

NWS DMX was taking shelter as they are in a tornado warning according to tweets I saw.

[Hawkeye]

Ames and Des Moines really need rain badly and they are getting it this evening.  Ames just picked up over 2 inches.

[james1976]

0.22" here from the quick line. Not much behind it so far.