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June (July) 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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I’m starting to wonder if we’re going to end up with a backloaded summer like 2011 or 2012. We will see though no way of knowing just a guess.

 

 

It sort of feels that way now. 

 

2012 turned around right about now and then was absolutely gorgeous through September.    In 2011, the first 11 days of July were beautiful (83 here on the 4th) and then there was a few days with rain around the middle of the month.   But it was generally dry and nice from July-Sept that year.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Maybe, though Oregon department of agriculture is going for a cooler than normal September.

Seemed like both of those years summer just got off to a really late start kinda similar to this year so far and then the main dry warm weather was in August and September. Both were nice summers without too much heat but the second half of the 2012 summer all the way into early October was extremely dry.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Maybe, though Oregon department of agriculture is going for a cooler than normal September.

My gut feeling is that we see the warmest September in at least a few years this fall. We have gotten off the hook for awhile now with mostly averagish ones since 2014’s record warm Sept.

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It sort of feels that way now. 

 

2012 turned around right about now and then was absolutely gorgeous through September.    In 2011, the first 11 days of July were beautiful (83 here on the 4th) and then there was a few days with rain around the middle of the month.   But it was generally dry and nice from July-Sept that year.

We had no rainfall at this location from 7/20 all the way until 9/20. Then only 0.03” from 9/20 until 10/12. That was insanely dry. Of course it rained a pretty decent amount after that.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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My gut feeling is that we see the warmest September in at least a few years this fall. We have gotten off the hook for awhile now with mostly averagish ones since 2014’s record warm Sept.

Maybe we get lucky and have a repeat of last year! Last September was one of the best convective months I’ve seen here in Tacoma. Probably the best thunderstorm I’ve ever seen on 9/7 too.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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But I also find it prudent to mention Andrew that with a building Niña all bets are OFF.

Isn’t it back to neutral now?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Maybe we get lucky and have a repeat of last year! Last September was one of the best convective months I’ve seen here in Tacoma. Probably the best thunderstorm I’ve ever seen on 9/7 too.

Last September was interesting. A very warm and muggy start with record warm nights in Portland, then an historically cold finish with PDX scoring a November-esque 52/39 spread on the 29th/30th.

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We had no rainfall at this location from 7/20 all the way until 9/20. Then only 0.03” from 9/20 until 10/12. That was insanely dry. Of course it rained a pretty decent amount after that.

 

 

There was measurable rain here on just 5 days from July 1 - October 11, 2012.

 

There was rain here on 47 days in 2019 in the same time period.   

 

Normally there would be 24 days with rain here in that period.    Last year was about as unusual as 2012 in that time frame... except the other way.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It sort of feels that way now. 

 

2012 turned around right about now and then was absolutely gorgeous through September.    In 2011, the first 11 days of July were beautiful (83 here on the 4th) and then there was a few days with rain around the middle of the month.   But it was generally dry and nice from July-Sept that year.

 

May/June was also much cooler in 2011 and 2012 than this year.

A forum for the end of the world.

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May/June was also much cooler in 2011 and 2012 than this year.

 

 

Yes... I was referring more to rain.

 

Interestingly... 2020 just passed 2011 at SEA and for the 11th wettest January-June period there.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That 109/88 has to be some record if it verifies.

Yeah, official record is 106°. It’s difficult to hit 100°F in the DC area due to the elevated humidity. Mid/upper 90s happens several times per week, though. Tight threshold.

 

Lows in the 80s are more common than highs > 100°F.

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Last September was interesting. A very warm and muggy start with record warm nights in Portland, then an historically cold finish with PDX scoring a November-esque 52/39 spread on the 29th/30th.

We had a 53/47 spread on 9/29...57/41 on 9/30. I went up to chinook pass on 9/28 to catch the first snow of the year this fall it was a pretty chilly airmass.

D9E6CD1F-0265-45B1-B4CD-6FD793A31787.jpeg

C3C4DB98-5D14-4E61-B793-D0A6EEFF9C4F.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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@Phil and others.

 

NOAA is predicting a below avg July you buy it?

Yes. But a warm stretch is possible during the 3rd week of the month, I think.

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This pattern is going to continue until mid November when split flow will take over and dominate for the rest of winter. Too bad.

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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GFS guidance is probably not the best... but it shows around 78 on Saturday and 80 on Sunday in Seattle.

 

I was trying to get a gauge on it because I never look at it... and yesterday it showed 66 in Seattle for today and that was correct.   Still... I think it runs too warm most of the time.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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GFS guidance is probably not the best... but it shows around 78 on Saturday and 80 on Sunday in Seattle.

 

I was trying to get a gauge on it because I never look at it... and yesterday it showed 66 in Seattle for today and that was correct. Still... I think it runs too warm most of the time.

When is your cancellation deadline?

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When is your cancellation deadline?

 

Tomorrow evening.   

 

Although the hotels were not totally booked so we can probably cancel and still go if we change our mind.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just want to mention. May and June 2011 and 12 were worlds cooler than this year. After the past 7-8 years this June only SEEMED cool.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Yes... I did not say today. And today was gloomy for the Seattle area regardless of the rain total at SEA.

 

Jesse is absolutely right that it looks extremely pleasant down there for the next 5-7 days.

 

Here is tomorrow... notice SEA and PDX should be dry but not for many of us up here.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip-12

 

 

 

And here is Friday... same story from Seattle northward.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip-12

 

 

And then Saturday... this day has been trending wetter so it might not be dry on the 4th.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip-12

The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. You’re fine up there but down here we are still in a drought. Need the jet to focus down in Oregon instead of further up north
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Just want to mention. May and June 2011 and 12 were worlds cooler than this year. After the past 7-8 years this June only SEEMED cool.

 

 

I don't think it seemed that cool in June...there was some fairly humid periods as well. 

 

Its more about days with rain and there were quite a bit more of those than usual.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. You’re fine up there but down here we are still in a drought. Need the jet to focus down in Oregon instead of further up north

 

I am less worried about drought up here than a Cat 5 hurricane making a direct hit.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just want to mention. May and June 2011 and 12 were worlds cooler than this year. After the past 7-8 years this June only SEEMED cool.

Can’t wait to see the reaction in here when the real deal happens. A multiyear niña regime is slowly building. Going to happen sooner rather than later.

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Can’t wait to see the reaction in here when the real deal happens. A multiyear niña regime is slowly building. Going to happen sooner rather than later.

I can only hope we have a July-Sept this year like the Nina year of 2011.

 

That period in 2011 was far drier here than in 2019 as well.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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At the North Bend weather station:

 

July - Sept 2011 - 2.99 inches

 

July - Sept 2019 - 15.72 inches

 

Just a bit different in the Nina year of 2011.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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