TT-SEA Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 I’m starting to wonder if we’re going to end up with a backloaded summer like 2011 or 2012. We will see though no way of knowing just a guess. It sort of feels that way now. 2012 turned around right about now and then was absolutely gorgeous through September. In 2011, the first 11 days of July were beautiful (83 here on the 4th) and then there was a few days with rain around the middle of the month. But it was generally dry and nice from July-Sept that year. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 Maybe, though Oregon department of agriculture is going for a cooler than normal September. Seemed like both of those years summer just got off to a really late start kinda similar to this year so far and then the main dry warm weather was in August and September. Both were nice summers without too much heat but the second half of the 2012 summer all the way into early October was extremely dry. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 Maybe, though Oregon department of agriculture is going for a cooler than normal September.My gut feeling is that we see the warmest September in at least a few years this fall. We have gotten off the hook for awhile now with mostly averagish ones since 2014’s record warm Sept. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 It sort of feels that way now. 2012 turned around right about now and then was absolutely gorgeous through September. In 2011, the first 11 days of July were beautiful (83 here on the 4th) and then there was a few days with rain around the middle of the month. But it was generally dry and nice from July-Sept that year.We had no rainfall at this location from 7/20 all the way until 9/20. Then only 0.03” from 9/20 until 10/12. That was insanely dry. Of course it rained a pretty decent amount after that. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 My gut feeling is that we see the warmest September in at least a few years this fall. We have gotten off the hook for awhile now with mostly averagish ones since 2014’s record warm Sept.Yellow Jackets will rejoice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 My gut feeling is that we see the warmest September in at least a few years this fall. We have gotten off the hook for awhile now with mostly averagish ones since 2014’s record warm Sept. Maybe we get lucky and have a repeat of last year! Last September was one of the best convective months I’ve seen here in Tacoma. Probably the best thunderstorm I’ve ever seen on 9/7 too. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 But I also find it prudent to mention Andrew that with a building Niña all bets are OFF.Isn’t it back to neutral now? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 Maybe we get lucky and have a repeat of last year! Last September was one of the best convective months I’ve seen here in Tacoma. Probably the best thunderstorm I’ve ever seen on 9/7 too.Last September was interesting. A very warm and muggy start with record warm nights in Portland, then an historically cold finish with PDX scoring a November-esque 52/39 spread on the 29th/30th. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 We had no rainfall at this location from 7/20 all the way until 9/20. Then only 0.03” from 9/20 until 10/12. That was insanely dry. Of course it rained a pretty decent amount after that. There was measurable rain here on just 5 days from July 1 - October 11, 2012. There was rain here on 47 days in 2019 in the same time period. Normally there would be 24 days with rain here in that period. Last year was about as unusual as 2012 in that time frame... except the other way. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 Maybe, though Oregon department of agriculture is going for a cooler than normal September. Three of the last five Septembers were below normal at OLM, and one was average. Haven't had a top 5 warm September since 1995. Due. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 Isn’t it back to neutral now? Just got to neutral again... but I think the next dip is about to start. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 It sort of feels that way now. 2012 turned around right about now and then was absolutely gorgeous through September. In 2011, the first 11 days of July were beautiful (83 here on the 4th) and then there was a few days with rain around the middle of the month. But it was generally dry and nice from July-Sept that year. May/June was also much cooler in 2011 and 2012 than this year. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 May/June was also much cooler in 2011 and 2012 than this year. Yes... I was referring more to rain. Interestingly... 2020 just passed 2011 at SEA and for the 11th wettest January-June period there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 That 109/88 has to be some record if it verifies.Yeah, official record is 106°. It’s difficult to hit 100°F in the DC area due to the elevated humidity. Mid/upper 90s happens several times per week, though. Tight threshold. Lows in the 80s are more common than highs > 100°F. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 Last September was interesting. A very warm and muggy start with record warm nights in Portland, then an historically cold finish with PDX scoring a November-esque 52/39 spread on the 29th/30th. We had a 53/47 spread on 9/29...57/41 on 9/30. I went up to chinook pass on 9/28 to catch the first snow of the year this fall it was a pretty chilly airmass. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 00Z GFS looking more like the ECMWF for Friday... trending wetter and cooler from Seattle northward. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 @Phil and others. NOAA is predicting a below avg July you buy it?Yes. But a warm stretch is possible during the 3rd week of the month, I think. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 This pattern is going to continue until mid November when split flow will take over and dominate for the rest of winter. Too bad. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 GFS guidance is probably not the best... but it shows around 78 on Saturday and 80 on Sunday in Seattle. I was trying to get a gauge on it because I never look at it... and yesterday it showed 66 in Seattle for today and that was correct. Still... I think it runs too warm most of the time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 GFS guidance is probably not the best... but it shows around 78 on Saturday and 80 on Sunday in Seattle. I was trying to get a gauge on it because I never look at it... and yesterday it showed 66 in Seattle for today and that was correct. Still... I think it runs too warm most of the time.When is your cancellation deadline? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 PDX is up to 18.09” YTD which is only about an inch below average. HIO is at 15.58” YTD which is 5” below average.Strong Northern Oregon Coast rain shadow so far this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 When is your cancellation deadline? Tomorrow evening. Although the hotels were not totally booked so we can probably cancel and still go if we change our mind. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 Cancel culture. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 Just want to mention. May and June 2011 and 12 were worlds cooler than this year. After the past 7-8 years this June only SEEMED cool. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 That 109/88 has to be some record if it verifies.Heatstroke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 @Phil and others. NOAA is predicting a below avg July you buy it?The past few months April, May, June have all been warm, chances of a cool month are likely Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 Yes... I did not say today. And today was gloomy for the Seattle area regardless of the rain total at SEA. Jesse is absolutely right that it looks extremely pleasant down there for the next 5-7 days. Here is tomorrow... notice SEA and PDX should be dry but not for many of us up here. And here is Friday... same story from Seattle northward. And then Saturday... this day has been trending wetter so it might not be dry on the 4th. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. You’re fine up there but down here we are still in a drought. Need the jet to focus down in Oregon instead of further up north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 Just want to mention. May and June 2011 and 12 were worlds cooler than this year. After the past 7-8 years this June only SEEMED cool. I don't think it seemed that cool in June...there was some fairly humid periods as well. Its more about days with rain and there were quite a bit more of those than usual. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. You’re fine up there but down here we are still in a drought. Need the jet to focus down in Oregon instead of further up north I am less worried about drought up here than a Cat 5 hurricane making a direct hit. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 Just want to mention. May and June 2011 and 12 were worlds cooler than this year. After the past 7-8 years this June only SEEMED cool.Right on dude. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 Up to .64” on the day. 52 degrees. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 The past few months April, May, June have all been warm, chances of a cool month are likelyJune was pretty close to average, especially where you live out by Troutdale. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 It’s June 1st. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 Just want to mention. May and June 2011 and 12 were worlds cooler than this year. After the past 7-8 years this June only SEEMED cool.Can’t wait to see the reaction in here when the real deal happens. A multiyear niña regime is slowly building. Going to happen sooner rather than later. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 PDX was -11 on the high today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 Can’t wait to see the reaction in here when the real deal happens. A multiyear niña regime is slowly building. Going to happen sooner rather than later.I can only hope we have a July-Sept this year like the Nina year of 2011. That period in 2011 was far drier here than in 2019 as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 At the North Bend weather station: July - Sept 2011 - 2.99 inches July - Sept 2019 - 15.72 inches Just a bit different in the Nina year of 2011. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 PDX was -11 on the high today. Record low max yesterday was actually 64. Today is much lower, 60, but they were at least in range. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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