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June (July) 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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At the North Bend weather station:

 

July - Sept 2011 - 2.99 inches

 

July - Sept 2019 - 15.72 inches

 

Just a bit different in the Nina year of 2011.

 

2011 wasn't a developing Nina of course.

 

First year Ninas don't show any overwhelming tendency towards hot late summers. 

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How much of the rain last year was in September?

 

2 inches in July... 3 inches in August... and 10 inches in September.

 

But it also rained on 25 days in July and August last year which is way more than usual.      It rained on just 6 days total in July and August of 2011.    Huge difference.   I would take July-Sept of 2011 again in a heartbeat.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2011 wasn't a developing Nina of course.

 

First year Ninas don't show any overwhelming tendency towards hot late summers.

 

True... first year Ninas are the worst for summer weather overall.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Although the summer of 1998 was a pretty dramatic example of a Nina developing summer and the July - Sept period here was absolutely spectacular after a miserable 4th of July.     It rained on only 8 days from July 5th through the end of September.  

 

Of course it was 62 degrees and raining on the 4th in 1998... much like today.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 inches in July... 3 inches in August... and 10 inches in September.

 

But it also rained on 25 days in July and August last year which is way more than usual. It rained on just 6 days total in July and August of 2011. Huge difference. I would take July-Sept of 2011 again in a heartbeat.

It rained 2.03 inches in Portland last July/August. I wouldn’t have guessed you got 5 inches those months, I figured most was in September that’s why I asked
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Although the summer of 1998 was a pretty dramatic example of a Nina developing summer and the July - Sept period here was absolutely spectacular after a miserable 4th of July.     It rained on only 8 days from July 5th through the end of September.  

 

Of course it was 62 degrees and raining on the 4th in 1998... much like today.

 

 

Yeah, 1998 was far from a cool summer. Of course there was a fair bit of super Nino lag and a lot of stored heat in the Pacific still. 

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It rained 2.03 inches in Portland last July/August. I wouldn’t have guessed you got 5 inches those months, I figured most was in September that’s why I asked

2 inches in Portland and 5 inches here is about the standard ratio.

 

In August of 2015 we had over 6 inches of rain which was about 250% of normal but it all came on 3 days. Not all wet months are created equal.

 

Last July and August we spread out 5 inches of rain over 25 days. That is very unusual even for here.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah, 1998 was far from a cool summer. Of course there was a fair bit of super Nino lag and a lot of stored heat in the Pacific still. 

 

 

Probably part of the reason it was not so bad.    

 

In the 'summer of a developing Nina' list you also have such gems as 1954, 1964, and 1983.    :rolleyes:

 

1988 was also really nice here after a crappy 4th of July... but the rain returned big time that year in mid-September.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 inches in Portland and 5 inches here is about the standard ratio.

 

In August of 2015 we had over 6 inches of rain which was about 250% of normal but it all came on 3 days. Not all wet months are created equal.

 

Last July and August we spread out 5 inches of rain over 25 days. That is very unusual even for here.

I need to keep in mind next time you live in the foothills. 25 days is a lot, are you counting the days with trace precipitation? I know in Portland we had a bunch of trace days last summer
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I need to keep in mind next time you live in the foothills. 25 days is a lot, are you counting the days with trace precipitation? I know in Portland we had a bunch of trace days last summer

 

 

Days with measurable rain (.01 or greater).    Normal for this area in July and August combined is 12 or 13 days (depending on elevation).    

 

So the 25 days last year in that period was double the normal number... and it felt like it.    Most of those days were not sunny with a passing shower... they were cloudy and damp.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Be nice if we could discuss something interesting for once.

 

 

You can discuss whatever you want.   People are asking me questions and I more than happy to engage in conversation.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just throwing it out there that it’s a no no for the same member to have two accounts. I think Josh ran afoul of that a few times last winter.

Wait... Josh is George?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Days with measurable rain (.01 or greater). Normal for this area in July and August combined is 12 or 13 days (depending on elevation).

 

So the 25 days last year in that period was double the normal number... and it felt like it. Most of those days were not sunny with a passing shower... they were cloudy and damp.

Okay nice
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I’ll reserve judgement for now. But something there just isn’t passing the smell test for me. The revelation that they are “friends” doesn’t have me feeling any worse about my hunch.

 

Do you have a smell test diagram for this?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Down to 54F. Nice night.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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Strong wind and drizzle for the 3rd day in a row.

 

The wind has been roaring here since Tuesday. The wind observations at SEA also look like November since Tuesday. Constant gusty S and SW winds. Can't remember so much sustained wind like this in the summer. Its honestly felt more like winter here.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Heavy drizzle and 50 currently.

.22” so far on the day, .89” for the month, 37.51” for the year.

Heat is on in the house...In July...

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I’ll reserve judgement for now. But something there just isn’t passing the smell test for me. The revelation that they are “friends” doesn’t have me feeling any worse about my hunch.

Would be hard to believe Josh has any friends.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Heavy drizzle and 50 currently.

.22” so far on the day, .89” for the month, 37.51” for the year.

Heat is on in the house...In July...

 

Phil says it will be much worse when the multi-year Nina kicks in... maybe low 40s and drizzle all summer with occasional snow mixed in?    Enjoy your warm, summer-like 50-degree drizzle while it lasts.   ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yes... I did not say today. And today was gloomy for the Seattle area regardless of the rain total at SEA.

 

Jesse is absolutely right that it looks extremely pleasant down there for the next 5-7 days.

 

Here is tomorrow... notice SEA and PDX should be dry but not for many of us up here.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip-12

 

 

 

And here is Friday... same story from Seattle northward.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip-12

 

 

And then Saturday... this day has been trending wetter so it might not be dry on the 4th.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip-12

Independence Day looks pretty dry for much of the region.

 

qpf_024h.us_nw.png

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Independence Day looks pretty dry for much of the region.

 

qpf_024h.us_nw.png

 

 

We will see... the models have been trending more troughy.    There will be probably be plenty of low clouds around up here at best and maybe even some showers.   A pleasant, sunny holiday after a stormy week is not looking too likely.    Not a problem down there of course.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Heavy drizzle and 50 currently.

.22” so far on the day, .89” for the month, 37.51” for the year.

Heat is on in the house...In July...

 

It looks way nicer in your area than you are describing.    ;)

 

005vc21272.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It looks way nicer in your area than you are describing. ;)

 

005vc21272.jpg

Yeah I really should take the day off and go jetsking to take full advantage of this glorious day!
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Yeah I really should take the day off and go jetsking to take full advantage of this glorious day!

 

You know its going to be 48 degrees and drizzling soon enough when fall arrives.   Take advantage of the 50-degree drizzle before its gone!    And tomorrow its going to rain all day up there which is not as nice as drizzle.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The wind has been fairly consistent here the past few days, generally gusting around 20-25mph. It has seemingly been a very windy late spring and early summer. There were many negative comments about the weather at our Canada day gathering yesterday. By dinner time I had to bring out the winter jacket. At least it was dry though. It was agreed that nobody wanted the heat and humidity that the east has been seeing though.

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