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June (July) 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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Gorgeous day here as well with a high of 67F. This month has been spectacular with a mean temp of 60F thus far.

 

I don't like the looks of the long range though. Phil, can you fix it please??

Forecast for Bozeman shows temps mostly in the 80s. Average high in Bozeman in July is 83. Do you expect it to be 15 degrees colder than normal all the time? That is like expecting 90s here all summer. Not reasonable.

 

And you get like 6 weeks a year of something other than chances of snow. :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Forecast for Bozeman shows temps mostly in the 80s. Average high in Bozeman in July is 83. Do you expect it to be 15 degrees colder than normal all the time? That is like expecting 90s here all summer. Not reasonable.

 

And you get like 6 weeks a year of something other than chances of snow. Enjoy it for the novelty at least. :)

 

Hmm I never said I was expecting anything, just that it has been a gorgeous stretch of weather thus far this month.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Hmm I never said I was expecting anything, just that it has been a gorgeous stretch of weather thus far this month.

I am just giving you crap... you asked Phil to fix a climo forecast.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I am just giving you crap... you asked Phil to fix a climo forecast.

I can deal with climo! It’s the 90+ stuff that the models are hinting at that I don’t love to see.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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You've got to change your avatar. Every time I see the tiny pic on my cell phone I think it’s Christopher Lloyd doing a blackface pose.

Fixed!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just to make the warm weather fans smile a little... here is the 7-day mean from the EPS for days 8-15. And its just as warm at the end of the run. There has not been anything too interesting (i.e. warm) to post from the EPS for quite awhile... maybe its onto something now.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-7day-

Should end up more transient than presently modeled.

 

There’s a CCKW crossing the Pacific that is forcing the wavetrain into a more +TNH/+PNA state, but that’s completely gone by the end of the month, with the background state being constructively reinforced again.

 

How the ET/tropical interactions play out is often complex/nonlinear and models struggle with it.

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Yup.

 

Definitely... my wish for 75-80 for the rest of the summer would be miserable and extreme.   Can you imagine if you had that weather??   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Well, it can happen. Good chance we go through the entire month of July without a single sub-90°F high.

 

Already 18 straight days above 90°F. One of the longer streaks on record.

 

As I said... its not a reasonable expectation here.   I am not talking about your miserable location.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Really? I'd think you guys have hit a month straight before.

Nope, we usually get short lived breaks even if the majority of days are swampfests. Our longest streak on record is 21 days above 90°F, in 1980 and 1988.

 

Without the transient breaks, our averages would look more like Jacksonville or New Orleans, since that’s what it’s like most of the time.

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You said you wanted 100°F. It’s nothing to be ashamed of. But that’s still heat miser-ish in my book.

 

And yeah, if I had ur wx, I wouldn’t be a whiny little b*tch complaining on here all day. But alas...

 

Randy said that.

 

I would find 0 degrees interesting for a day... and 100 degrees interesting for a day.    That is about it.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It’s so annoying that people are so focused on preferences when all I talk about are other people preferences!!!

 

Its about 80% of what Phil does on here... focus on other people's preferences.

 

I don't really care about anyone else's weather fetishes.    Everyone likes something different and none of it matters.   Phil cares immensely... and so do you for some reason.

 

But again... as I try to extend the olive branch... I love 75-80 degree weather in the summer and would be fine if every day was in that range.    Now turn that into something evil.    :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I don’t care to the extent you think I do.

 

It does irritate me a just a little when folks complain that a (possibly) warmer/drier than average summer isn’t warm/dry enough, while I’m literally begging for just one day under 90°F. I mean, come on, does nothing make people happy anymore?

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I don’t care to the extent you think I do.

 

It does irritate me a just a little when folks complain that a (possibly) warmer/drier than average summer isn’t warm/dry enough, while I’m literally begging for just one day under 90°F. I mean, come on, does nothing make people happy anymore?

 

 

Exactly.    Its all comes back to you being irritated and looking for a proverbial dog to kick.   Pointless.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Record is 21 straight at DCA (1988, 1980).

 

Probably a decent chance they avoid 90+ tomorrow.

Oh, we’ll hit 90°F. Downsloping wind and warmer 850s than today. Also less humidity so there’ll be more sensible heating. Probably 91°F or 92°F.

 

If it’s gonna break, it’ll have to be Wed or Fri.

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I suppose 1988 is a good PNW winter analog.

 

What about 1872/73? We’re tied with that year right now.

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I don’t care to the extent you think I do.

 

It does irritate me a just a little when folks complain that a (possibly) warmer/drier than average summer isn’t warm/dry enough, while I’m literally begging for just one day under 90°F. I mean, come on, does nothing make people happy anymore?

I will agree that the hott warm season crowd here is insanely hard to please. Especially since we are basically coming off of their 1948-57. Except unlike that stretch the climatological prognosis in the upcoming years/decades continues to be in overwhelmingly in their favor.

 

But you’d think it’s the end of the god damned world as we court the first near average summer in about eight years. :lol:

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Lots of interesting western/PNW winter analogs in years with long heat streaks at DCA. For whatever it’s worth.

 

1983/84, 1988/89, 1995/96, 2011/12, 2016/17, 1872/73(?)

 

Only duds were WPAC+solar max years (1999, 1980). Which this year isn’t.

 

I’m so fuuking screwed. Lol.

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I will agree that the hott warm season crowd here is insanely hard to please. Especially since we are basically coming off of their 1948-57. Except unlike that stretch the climatological prognosis in the upcoming years/decades continues to be in overwhelmingly in their favor.

 

But you’d think it’s the end of the god damned world as we court the first near average summer in about eight years. :lol:

 

Who has said this is an unusual summer in terms of climo? I can't remember anyone saying that. And the running gag in the PNW is that our normal summers can be depressing at times (e.g. summer does not start until July 5th) so nobody really expects hot, dry weather.

 

Why does it matter what people think of climo weather? People complain about the weather. All the time. Everywhere. So what?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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