jaster220 Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 (edited) Moved this here, and expanded on it fwiw. I am also waiting to see if a wound-up system happens in Nov, which historically has been a great sign for our region in La Nina years. Here's a list for the Lwr. Lakes: How do the great November storms correlate with La Nina ENSO? Nov 1950 (Great Appalachian Storm): La Nina Nov 1966 (985 mb): possibly neutral Nov 1975 (Edmund Fitzgerald): La Nina Nov 1998 (Fitzgerald storm 2.0): La Nina Oct/Nov 2010 (Octo-bomb): La Nina Nov 2013 (TOR outbreak but non-snowstorm): La Nina 4 out of 6 on that list featured a full-fledged blizzard the following winter!, and iirc the other 2 were pretty snowy winters as well, at least for certain parts of the Lakes. Edit- If you take into account the Nov '50 storm was itself a blizzard for a large portion hardest hit, you actually have a fabulous 5 of 6 years producing blizzards! Edited October 16, 2020 by jaster220 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 My local office's regional zoom-in and disco/forecast for our first year La Nina winter. I like it! And IF the blocking ends up being a bit more dominant than they are calling for, this could certainly go bigger. 2 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 @Tom So, is this an east-based Nina? And were certain outlets expecting more of a west-based that would/could explain WxBell's early call to bottle the cold more NW? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 Good stuff on this map per NWS-Boulder 2 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 2 hours ago, jaster220 said: @Tom So, is this an east-based Nino? And were certain outlets expecting more of a west-based that would/could explain WxBell's early call to bottle the cold more NW? I don't believe they were anticipating a west-based La Nina. And yes, this is certainly trending towards a moderate east-based La Nina. In fact, the recent runs off the CFSv2 are categorically getting colder, esp during the heart of Winter right around the New Year. Pretty wild stuff. You can tell the modeling is on the right track based on the subsurface anomalies which showcase a divided PAC ocean and all the colder waters on the eastern side. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 Alright, alright, alright...I promised to post the latest run off the IRI-Multi Model ensemble and like last month, for comparisons and trend purposes, I'll show the current run and compare it with the previous run. NDJ...cooler and wetter trends across the heartland and OHV while the southern tier and SW/W coast remains warm and dry... vs previous run... DJF...same trends continue and notice the warmth over the Arctic regions and Greenland...this is why I believe some of the climate models are not potentially seeing the Greenland Block in the longer range... Current run...colder across the OHV/MW that may suggest a snowier pattern??? Previous run... Finally, JFM where it seems like winters really hit hard mid/late in the season in recent years... Current run... Previous run... 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 What say the Euro Weeklies from yesterday??? After a very cold finish to October, the pattern relaxes a bit during the opening of November through about the 15th or so allowing "Indian Summer Part 3"...possibly??? It does appear that the west coast ridge will try to poke east into the central Plains during this period but there remains a lot of Blocking over eastern Canada/Greenland that may negate any significant (more normal temps) warming over the eastern Sub. Moving forward, for the 3rd run in a row, the model is continuing to show the pattern flip to what we are experiencing now and that is a west coast ridge along with blocking over the top from the 15th onward. Almost a perfect scenario because it would allow all of us to finish up any yard work that needs to be attended to during the opening days of November and then nature can lay down the snow right around the beginning of the holiday season. Check out this Snow mean forecast and you can clearly see the suppression of the cold that comes later in November. Hope to see this trend continue. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 6 hours ago, jaster220 said: Good stuff on this map per NWS-Boulder That's the pattern we've started this LRC with and kinda how I see this Winter going as of now. Good for you my man but not so great down here. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 7 hours ago, Tom said: What say the Euro Weeklies from yesterday??? After a very cold finish to October, the pattern relaxes a bit during the opening of November through about the 15th or so allowing "Indian Summer Part 3"...possibly??? It does appear that the west coast ridge will try to poke east into the central Plains during this period but there remains a lot of Blocking over eastern Canada/Greenland that may negate any significant (more normal temps) warming over the eastern Sub. Moving forward, for the 3rd run in a row, the model is continuing to show the pattern flip to what we are experiencing now and that is a west coast ridge along with blocking over the top from the 15th onward. Almost a perfect scenario because it would allow all of us to finish up any yard work that needs to be attended to during the opening days of November and then nature can lay down the snow right around the beginning of the holiday season. Check out this Snow mean forecast and you can clearly see the suppression of the cold that comes later in November. Hope to see this trend continue. Thats still no snow to Dec 1 for me and what would be a western trough to get that much snow. I think November brings snow as far south as I-40 before Thanksgiving in NE Oklahoma so I have to disregard that map. Guess I'm in disagreement. The pattern is already set in stone, imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 I think we're already in tropical suppression and halfway through subtropical and tropical retrogression is why I disagree. That trough isn't pulling back over AZ. More likely to bleed east as Oct indicates and as blocking relents. Its a huge error, isn't it? Or am I mistaken? 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 Giving the IRI a huge "whiff" also. Same reasons. The wx pattern on the map doesn't make sense. No cold Alaska this year. Not going to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 Weatherbell Preliminary winter outlook Updated winter outlook Preliminary snowfall outlook Updated snowfall outlook 2 2 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 3 hours ago, Hawkeye said: Weatherbell Preliminary winter outlook Updated winter outlook Preliminary snowfall outlook Updated snowfall outlook Ol Joe is more timid than his usual self, it seems, but I see where he's going here and I like it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 17, 2020 Report Share Posted October 17, 2020 17 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said: Ol Joe is more timid than his usual self, it seems, but I see where he's going here and I like it. And that "update" was published back in September. Gotta figure the way things are developing, he may not be finished tweaking it. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 17, 2020 Report Share Posted October 17, 2020 4 hours ago, jaster220 said: And that "update" was published back in September. Gotta figure the way things are developing, he may not be finished tweaking it. Aahh, makes sense now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Here's a detailed write-up by Ben Noll that goes into a lot of details for this upcoming winter season. He focuses on the northeastern U.S., specifically Hudson Valley, but you can use this as guidance for your local region as well. Some of the analogs he's using are catching my attn as I'm sure they will for you also. https://bennollweather.substack.com/p/hudson-valley-2020-21-winter-outlook?r=6mogw&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter His analog years... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 As the Northern Hemisphere plunges into Winter, both the Northern Hemisphere along with North America snow cover extent catapults in recent days. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 4 hours ago, Tom said: As the Northern Hemisphere plunges into Winter, both the Northern Hemisphere along with North America snow cover extent catapults in recent days. Out-pacing just about every year in the pack at this point on the calendar, eh? (for N Amer). Too many lines of similar color to parse exact years like comparing 2013 for instance. Be nice if you could toggle certain years on/off for easy comparing. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 Direct Weather's winter forecast. @Niko- Looks like a sliver of SEMI gets into the "worst of winter" zone. Hoping that zone is back west a bit too, lol 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 4 hours ago, Tom said: Here's a detailed write-up by Ben Noll that goes into a lot of details for this upcoming winter season. He focuses on the northeastern U.S., specifically Hudson Valley, but you can use this as guidance for your local region as well. Some of the analogs he's using are catching my attn as I'm sure they will for you also. https://bennollweather.substack.com/p/hudson-valley-2020-21-winter-outlook?r=6mogw&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter His analog years... Wisconsin State Climatology office has 13-14, as above average, and 07-08 as the snowiest winter of all time with 08-09 with the snowiest December on record. 10-11 is a good one too though it's more backloaded. 17-18, and 99-00 were both below average. Those analog years are a good sign but they aren't a promise. What was happening in 17-18 and 99-00 to make these the same and why was the snowfall output so much lower in the Midwest? Looking at these analogs, at face value it looks like we're far more likely to do well with snow than not. I'm getting quite excited, I did some epoxy repairs to my board and went out on the lake yesterday in the wind. Suffice to say there was probably 2-3 foot chop out there and I was on a little stand up jet ski, I got my butt handed to me, haha. I'm about ready for some snow, only three to six weeks left for snowboarding. Really need a hard shot of cold early in November to get temps below 28 for a few days so they can open up. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 18, 2020 Report Share Posted October 18, 2020 1 hour ago, gimmesnow said: Wisconsin State Climatology office has 13-14, as above average, and 07-08 as the snowiest winter of all time with 08-09 with the snowiest December on record. 10-11 is a good one too though it's more backloaded. 17-18, and 99-00 were both below average. Those analog years are a good sign but they aren't a promise. What was happening in 17-18 and 99-00 to make these the same and why was the snowfall output so much lower in the Midwest? Looking at these analogs, at face value it looks like we're far more likely to do well with snow than not. I'm getting quite excited, I did some epoxy repairs to my board and went out on the lake yesterday in the wind. Suffice to say there was probably 2-3 foot chop out there and I was on a little stand up jet ski, I got my butt handed to me, haha. I'm about ready for some snow, only three to six weeks left for snowboarding. Really need a hard shot of cold early in November to get temps below 28 for a few days so they can open up. The short answer is "there are duds in every ENSO state". 99-00 was bad across the board iirc. 17-18 was actually AN but for a different region (i.e. mby and eastward were AN). I certainly agree that our "odds" based on his analog list look promising. It is ofc, just an educated hunch and nothing's been following the analog lists lately, so we just won't know until we know. It could dud, or equally, it could over-perform. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 12 hours ago, jaster220 said: Direct Weather's winter forecast. @Niko- Looks like a sliver of SEMI gets into the "worst of winter" zone. Hoping that zone is back west a bit too, lol ....I know, its hilarious the way they painted my area right on the edge of that red color. Tbh though, I would not bet any money on this map, just yet, but I do hope it verifies, absolutely. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 19 hours ago, Tom said: Here's a detailed write-up by Ben Noll that goes into a lot of details for this upcoming winter season. He focuses on the northeastern U.S., specifically Hudson Valley, but you can use this as guidance for your local region as well. Some of the analogs he's using are catching my attn as I'm sure they will for you also. https://bennollweather.substack.com/p/hudson-valley-2020-21-winter-outlook?r=6mogw&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter His analog years... Thanks Tom. I really enjoyed his write-up and his style/approach. I like his set of analogs too for the most part. But wow at those snow maps off the Euro/Ukie, how disappointing that would be. Basically a 3rd straight winter of blah for the Lwr Lakes/OHV. Seriously hoping that those are not taking into account blocking that we've seen develop often so far. Thoughts? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 hours ago, jaster220 said: Thanks Tom. I really enjoyed his write-up and his style/approach. I like his set of analogs too for the most part. But wow at those snow maps off the Euro/Ukie, how disappointing that would be. Basically a 3rd straight winter of blah for the Lwr Lakes/OHV. Seriously hoping that those are not taking into account blocking that we've seen develop often so far. Thoughts? The scary thing about this is, both of these models have done well together in recent years, esp the Ukie which nailed the 500mb forecast last year and I think the year prior. This year, however, I've seen how badly the models have done with the AO/NAO forecasts. That's not to say they will bust again this year. I just feel that how this pattern is setting up, while still early in the game, will pose a threat for high lat blocking in the winter months. I'm sure there will be episodes where the blocking wanes when the PV strengthens or positions itself near Greenland. For instance, the Euro op run below shows this transpiring later next week...this is when I believe we'll see exhibits of this LRC illustrate "cross polar flow". 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 I'm not an expert when it come to the MJO but I believe phases 8 and 1 are cold for the US which looks to be the direction it's heading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 42 minutes ago, Clinton said: I'm not an expert when it come to the MJO but I believe phases 8 and 1 are cold for the US which looks to be the direction it's heading. Here are the November MJO temp composites.... The Euro seems to agree but not as amplified as the GFS... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Saw this tweet by Judah Cohen as he posted a chart comparing recent La Nina winters... Quote La Niña is thought to favor a mild #winter in the Eastern US but recent La Niñas feature many large #polarvortex disruptions which is often followed by severe winter weather not only in the Eastern US but elsewhere across the Hemisphere I'm seeing signs that the QBO is heading out of the westerly phase and into the easterly phase by the end of the calendar year. Could this aid in negating a chance of a warm winter? I'm curious to see what the PV did back in 05/06 which is one of the analogs this season that ended up becoming a warm winter. This season could be a lot different if the PV ends up being weaker. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Brett Anderson came out with his 2020/21 winter guess. While his guess is for Canada for those of us living in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and the Dakotas there is enough of a over lap that his guess get into our area. His guess is pointing towards a warm winter with less snow for much of our area. Here is his summery for the winter season. “Overall, in terms of temperatures, the core of the Arctic air is expected to hang out across northern BC and the Yukon Territory, though there certainly can be brief spells of bitterly cold air through the Prairies and into eastern Canada. However, the winter as a whole is expected to be dominated by more mild spells from the Great Lakes to Atlantic Canada. The lack of sustained cold is expected to reduce the number of lake-effect snowfall events downwind of the Great Lakes this season. Ice cover on the Great Lakes is also expected to average below normal this season.” Remember that is Brett Anderson’s guess and not mine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 (edited) On 10/20/2020 at 5:08 AM, Tom said: Saw this tweet by Judah Cohen as he posted a chart comparing recent La Nina winters... I'm seeing signs that the QBO is heading out of the westerly phase and into the easterly phase by the end of the calendar year. Could this aid in negating a chance of a warm winter? I'm curious to see what the PV did back in 05/06 which is one of the analogs this season that ended up becoming a warm winter. This season could be a lot different if the PV ends up being weaker. I remember we had thunderstorms in the beginning and at the end of January 2006 and plenty of warm temps. IIRC, the soils that winter around here never really froze hard enough and people could continue with dirt work like tiling, etc! Edited October 22, 2020 by Sparky 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 On 10/18/2020 at 10:25 AM, jaster220 said: Direct Weather's winter forecast. @Niko- Looks like a sliver of SEMI gets into the "worst of winter" zone. Hoping that zone is back west a bit too, lol Looks like Ma Nature heard your request. It now even covers Toms pl and Clintons as well. 3 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 11 hours ago, Niko said: Looks like Ma Nature heard your request. It now even covers Toms pl and Clintons as well. Now that makes much more sense, lol. Seriously tho, when's the last time you can remember the map I posted actually happening? Like, never. It crossed too many wx zones in all the wrong and non-typical ways to make sense. I think this new one actually welcomes Clinton into the "WOW" zone as well. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 Here's a chart that will define the reason why I believe the models are right about the Scandinavian Block playing an important role this Winter. Sadly, Siberian Ice extent is shattering record lows in 2020...open waters in this region during the winter will aid in high lat blocking. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 7 hours ago, jaster220 said: Now that makes much more sense, lol. Seriously tho, when's the last time you can remember the map I posted actually happening? Like, never. It crossed too many wx zones in all the wrong and non-typical ways to make sense. I think this new one actually welcomes Clinton into the "WOW" zone as well. Winter 2013-14 all over again........I can see it! 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 7 hours ago, jaster220 said: Now that makes much more sense, lol. Seriously tho, when's the last time you can remember the map I posted actually happening? Like, never. It crossed too many wx zones in all the wrong and non-typical ways to make sense. I think this new one actually welcomes Clinton into the "WOW" zone as well. LOL this NW flow won't allow this to happen for me. Lots of time for a pattern change sill. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Clinton said: LOL this NW flow won't allow this to happen for me. Lots of time for a pattern change still. To me, the WoW zone is the region where S Stream systems criss-cross with the primary Clipper track. What he's showing would be the S Stream hit zone ala GHD-1 bliz and to some extent the PV bliz of 13-14. So for the WoW zone to extend that far SW to include W MO, those would have to out-number the clippers and I've never seen that kind of season tbh. I do 100% agree that the most likely region for big systems is just SE of where the arctic air masses come down. This should be fun if we can hold onto what's underway right now. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 23, 2020 Report Share Posted October 23, 2020 I like hearing 1983-84 as an analog with this winter forecast. That was a winter for the record books here in Nebraska! https://www.weatherbell.com/current-winter-forecast-october-2020 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 During the most crucial time of year, when the LRC is developing, the MJO is forecast to rotate through the colder phases of 7/8/1 as we close out October and head into November. Question is, does it continue rotating through the warmer phases later in Nov or does it fall into the "null" phase??? What do we know so far??? We do know that there will be a SER influence this cold season as we've had a persistent -PNA pattern. Is there a part of the LRC where the SER is not present?? The Euro Weeklies suggest November to have a general +PNA pattern... MJO Forecasts show the ensembles heading towards 7/8 and maybe phase 1...amplification, or rather, the influence doesn't seem to be that great. There is also JMA support that we indeed head into phases 7/8/1 and 2 as we head into Nov. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif The Euro Weeklies of late, have been advertising a steady trend for the second half of November. The past several runs it has been showing a more winter-like pattern for a lot of the Sub. What about the Thanksgiving holiday period?? Well, this 500mb pattern is a great way to start off the holidays. What about SNOW potential??? The next 45 days... 3 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 24, 2020 Report Share Posted October 24, 2020 Never got this in sunlight but I thought these were neat pictures. In sunlight, that color looks like literal red fire. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said: Never got this in sunlight but I thought these were neat pictures. In sunlight, that color looks like literal red fire. Nice pics....thanks for sharing them! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 25, 2020 Report Share Posted October 25, 2020 Can't help but think the Dec version of the pattern might go bigly! 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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