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2020-21 Autumn & Winter Discussion


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I was able to shoot a few hours north to the Starvation Lake area on my day off. It's a tad early even for NCMI but I was hopeful things might be running ahead of schedule there like downstate. Not su

Never got this in sunlight but I thought these were neat pictures. In sunlight, that color looks like literal red fire.  

Some have said it's possibly a blend of 10-11 and 13-14. Now that'd be interesting. When you're in the highest range of the weenie/clownage maps, yet it's legit. Now that's #FUN One of my be

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10 hours ago, westMJim said:

There are hints of weak to moderate La Nina for the upcoming winter season. Some recent weak La Nina winters are 2017/18. 2016/17. 2008/09. 2005/06. 2000/01. And some recent moderate ones 2011/12. 1995/96 1970/71. That would be a good start for this winters analogs if you are inclined to want a winter long range guess. 

5 of 8 good to historic snowy winters...I will take those odds 😁

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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@ Tom

Some of those seasonal models you posted showing BN regions in the east totally contradict WxBell iirc?

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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10 hours ago, westMJim said:

This is a copy of a La Nina report I made for a local weather blog here in west Michigan. All snowfall and temperature reports are for Grand Rapids.

I know it is only early September but every year there is always speculation on what the coming winter will be like. It always makes we wonder how some people think they can tell what a 90 day period of weather will be like 3 to 6 months in advance (unless you are taking about a location where the weather is very stable) but for us living about half way between the north pole and the equator, will that is a different story. Now for the upcoming winter seasons there are some hints that we could have a condition call La Nina and there are many who think that a El Nino brings a warm dry winter and a La Nina brings a cold and snowy winter well this week I will look at past known La Nina years and see how that winter season ended up.  According to Stormfax where they have a list of El Nino and La Nina years going back to 1900. While the list on https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm starts at 1950.

I have broke down the La Nana history into two parts. From 1900 to 1950 and 1951 to 2020. For each La Nana winter I have listed the total snow fall for that winter and then the average mean temperature for that winter season. Note all reading are for Grand Rapids  La Nana winters 1900 to 1950. The Stormfax listed La Nana winters start with 1903/04 that winter Grand Rapids reported 77.8” of snow fall and the mean that winter was a cold 18.2°. 1906/07 snowfall 30.1” mean winter temperature 24.7° 1908/09 34.4” mean temp 27.8° 1916/17 snow fall 52.2 mean temp 21.8° 1920/21 snow fall 35.6 mean temp 30.9° 1924/25 snow 40.7” temp 24.7. 1928/29 snow fall 55.4” mean temp 23.7. During the warm years of the 1930’s 1931/32 snow fall 41.1” mean temp 33.9. 1938/39 snow fall 65.7 mean temp 28.7. 1942/43 snow fall 64.1 temp 22.9. Recap of the 1900 to 1950 La Nina winters. According to Stormfax there were 10 winters with La Nina winters. The mean temperature of all winters between 1900 to 1950 was 25.6 and the average snow fall was 52.8” during the La Nina winters the mean was 25.7° the mean ranged from a cold winter in 1903/04(18.2) to a very mild winter in 1931(30.9).   The average snow fall was 50.1” and ranged from 77.8” in 1903/04 to just 30.1” in 1906/07. Note that total snow fall was less for all winters in that time so the way it was measured might not have been the same as today.

For the la Nina winters from 1951 to 2020. During this time there is information as to how strong the La Nina was so now there is the added item of if it was a weak, moderate, or strong La Nina. The first La Nina winter it this period was in 1954/55 that was weak La Nina the mean temperature that winter was 25.9° and there was 68.8” of snow fall. The next La Nina winter was 1964/65 that was a weak one and the mean temperature was 24.1 and there was 101.4” of snow fall. The 1970/71 event was a moderate one and that winter the mean was 22.7 and there was 101.0” of snow fall.  The 1973/74 was the first strong event and the mean temperature that winter was 24.3 and there was 64.4” of snow fall. The next event in 1975/76 also was strong and that winter the mean was 25.7 and there was 69.2” of snow fall. The 1988/89 was the last in the string of strong La Nina’s and that winter the mean was 25.9 and there was 62.2” of snow fall. The 1995/96 event was moderate and that winter the mean was 23.5 and there was 98.4” of snow fall. The 1998/99 event was strong and that winter the mean was 28.6 and 76.7” of snow fell. The 2007/08 event was strong and that winter the mean was 26.0 and Grand Rapids reported 107.0” of snow fall. The 2010/11 event was strong and that winter the mean was 25.2 and there was 74.0” of snow fall. The 2011/12 event was reported as moderate and that winter the mean was a very warm 32.2 and just 51.1” of snow fell. The 2016/17 and the 2017/18 events were reported as weak. In 2016/17 the mean temp was a mild 30.4 and the snow fall was just 60.1” and in the last La Nina the mean was 26.2 and 77.7” of snow fell.

In the last 70 years there were a reported 14 La Nina events and the mean temperature of the 14 events was 24.3 the mean total snow fall was 76.2”  There was a range in temperature from 22.7 to 32.2 and a range of snow fall from 51.2 to 107.0. The mean of all of the years from 1950 to 2020 for the winter season is 26.4 and for snow fall it is 75.8”  So yes on average there is a chance of a La Nina winter to be colder than average and maybe a little more snow fall. But there is no guarantee.

Would gladly take a combination of those two winters (64-65 & 07-08). Especially the Feb 1965 Ohio bomb storm.  Nice article and like you pointed out there's nothing certain about Nina's and a snowy winter. Every type of winter can go wrong (or right). Still like our odds tho.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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5 hours ago, jaster220 said:

@ Tom

Some of those seasonal models you posted showing BN regions in the east totally contradict WxBell iirc?

Yes, and I personally think he will be making some changes by October based on what I'm seeing.  I think it was a good idea in his initial Winter forecast that he posted early on given the trends in recent years, but maybe nature has a surprise for us this year.  A lot of people (myself included) got burned with their forecasts last year and are cautious about this winter coming up for the eastern CONUS.  The difference I'm seeing so far this season in the modeling is the blocking the models are flashing as we get closer in time.

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It's about that time of year I begin to sniff through these strat temp maps to get clues where blocks and/or troughs could develop in the 2-3 week lead time period.  Are these particular animations early clues to what we may be seeing this season??  It very well could be and I am inclined to believe this season will produce the high lat blocking we have lacked for years it seems.

 

Here's the 10mb animation and you will quickly notice the warming across N C.A. and the Pole that occurs as Sept opens.

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

The 30mb animation follows suit but more impressive warming is occurring in eastern C.A. and Greenland.  Remember those 500mb maps for the month of October showing ridges off eastern C.A. coastline and near Greenland??  It's prob not a coincidence the LR models are sniffing out those blocks.

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation'

 

 

While still AN, Arctic temps taking a plunge as sea ice growth starts up early this year...I read that it is one of the earliest reversals from the Summer melt season.

 

http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/CICE_curve_thick_LA_EN_20200910.png

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2020.png

 

 

 

 

 

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Quote

 

While still AN, Arctic temps taking a plunge as sea ice growth starts up early this year...I read that it is one of the earliest reversals from the Summer melt season.

 

http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/CICE_curve_thick_LA_EN_20200910.png

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2020.png

 

 

 

 

 

I absolutely LOVE how it almost completely messes with them every year and does the complete opposite about the time folks write the ice off.

 

People also forget that the brief cooldown between 1989 and 1993 only took 18 months to really kick off and to my knowledge, there were far fewer atmospheric input sources of ash and smoke than today.

Just my 2c...

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5 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

 

I absolutely LOVE how it almost completely messes with them every year and does the complete opposite about the time folks write the ice off.

 

People also forget that the brief cool down between 1989 and 1993 only took 18 months to really kick off and to my knowledge, there were far fewer atmospheric input sources of ash and smoke than today.

Just my 2c...

Mt. Pinatubo's major eruption in 1991 most certainly contributed to some of the cold winters that followed. My 2c fwiw

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 hours ago, Niko said:

FWIW:

 

JB is predicting a warm, mild Winter, so get ready for the opposite. 😆

 

He is notorious for his hype on weather. Pure comedy.

Yeah I think the last time I took his forecasts seriously I was like 13. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

2020-21: 2.9" (so far)

 

Average: 25.9"

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The last couple of winters around here have been cool in November with even snow (last year a couple days before Halloween we got accumulating snow), and then warm and dry in December, in fact extremely warm on Christmas Day each of the last 2 years (highs in the 60s). I'm curious to see if this becomes more of a trend or not.  We used to get at least one big snowstorm it seemed every December to kickoff winter, but lately December's have not been very snowy.  I'd love for that to change this year and get a White Christmas.  

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While sippin' on my coffee this morning, enjoying the cool and fresh air flowing into my room from outside, it reminded me how much I was yearning for these Autumn mornings during the HOT Summer season.  With that being said, I took a gander at the pattern all the way across the N PAC and wanted to see what it may show for the October opening.  I'm not sure if you all remember, but over the past few years I've shown how storms that form near the Sea of Okhotsk end up advertising a similar pattern across the PAC NW/Western Canada.  This September, I'm seeing a similar but different pattern that is producing what was a dominant -PNA pattern last year and the year prior.  Storm systems that are coming off the Asian continent are tracking farther south, thus, impacting W NAMER in a different way this year.

 

Back on Sept 8th-9th, there was a stalled out storm near this region the meandered for a period of a few days near the Sea of Okhotsk which then tracked into the Bearing Sea.  Fast forward about 6 days or so, the storm that has formed just offshore of the PAC NW which will bring relief to those being impacted by the Wild Fires, I believe is directly related to this pattern.  In years past, these storms would have tracked into British Columbia, this year they are tracking farther south it appears due to a +PNA pattern.

 

Sept 8th....the blocking Eurasian HP to the N of the system near Japan is a much different pattern, almost opposite of what it looked like last year which then correlated into a dominant W NAMER trough (+EPO/-PNA).

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_4.png

 

 

 Fast forward 6-8 days, we see the storm off the PAC NW slowly make its way to our coast....see animation below...

 

Another clue this year's pattern is different than year's past is the behavior of storms near the Aleutians/Bearing Sea.  The BSR is going to be a big clue in this years pattern.  Last year, how many times did we see a massive 500mb ridge build just S/SE of the Aleutians???  This, in turn, correlated to a huge SER signal in the extended and we saw a never ending -PNA pattern.  While we do see a spike in the EPO and a dip in the PNA next week, the overall pattern off the Euro Weeklies is predominantly the opposite of what we saw in previous seasons.  

 

The storm that is poised to track through the Sea of Okhotsk over the next couple days (see below) will enter W NAMER in 6 days and 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_5.png

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_6.png

 

6 Days later...massive storm across W Canada causing the +EPO...but the ridge builds back near the Sea of Okhotsk and that will build the ridge across western Canada.  Now, that massive storm in the GOA that tracks between Sept 20th-23rd will be interesting as it should appear sometime during Week 2 in October and produce an eastern CONUS trough, unlike last year when we saw massive ridges near the Aleutians which then correlated to a East Coast ridge.  What did the Euro Weeklies flash yesterday....fast forward 17-21 days...see map below...eastern CONUS trough!  When I see medium range modeling agree with a LR model run, I tend to believe it based on the BSR theory.

 

I know this is a lot to digest and understand but the way this September has behaved thus far is MUCH different than in recent years.  Does that mean we will see Winter finally make its appearance when it counts this year and NOT the warm December's we have seen?  IMO, yes...we are seeing signs that nature has #flippedthescript....add to the mix the blocking the models are missing in the LR and we may be seeing an interesting cold season ahead.

 

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_10.png

1.gif

1.png

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3.png

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Great write up Tom. I really have nothing to add or take away. Its been over seven years since I've saw some of the stuff I have seen. 

Like you said, when it all lines up, it's undeniable. 

From about 09/20 on, its a whole other world after.

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The latest IRI Multi-Model ensemble came out to day and has trended kindly for the majority of our Sub if your looking for Winter to return this season.  Let's dive in...

 

OND...

OND20_NAm_tmp.gif

OND20_NAm_pcp.gif

 

 

Here's a comparison from last months run for the NDJ period...

Last month vs current run...

NDJ21_NAm_tmp.gif

 

 

VS Current Run...cold across the Plains/Upper MW/MW/GL's/SE...Warmer in the SW U.S./S Plains and over near Greenland...

 

NDJ21_NAm_tmp.gif

 

 

NDJ21_NAm_pcp.gif

 

 

 

Finally, the last comparison is for DJF period from last run to current run...same scenarios are happening as the model got colder and warmer in the same regions mentioned above...I see you Blocking!

 

DJF21_NAm_tmp.gif

 

VS Current Run...

 

DJF21_NAm_tmp.gif

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2 hours ago, Niko said:

Hopefully, an East Based -NAO develops in time for the GL's region this Winter!

I think west based serves our region best. Tom can clarify tho

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

I think west based serves our region best. Tom can clarify tho

If we get a West based, then, it can serve to be good for us, if it is on the weak side.

  Key Note:  if it gets any stronger than >-1, then, that allows the EC to get major snowstorms more frequently, rather than us.

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13 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I think west based serves our region best. Tom can clarify tho

West-Based Greenland Blocks are the best for our the majority of our Sub while East-Based blocks tend to favor the EC bombs to develop.  Guess what I'm seeing, at both 10mb/30mb, there is a significant warming event ongoing over N/NE Canada/Greenland which suggests to me the models will be increasing the -NAO signature in the coming days.  In fact, you can already see the blocking at 500mb developing in the modeling as we close out Sept and open Oct.  

 

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

 

Gosh, this morning I've analyzed a lot of interesting data and the trends are favoring the BSR/N PAC pattern which has been so dominant over the past 2 weeks during the month of September.  The latest JMA weeklies are showing the drought and persistent West Coast/SW Ridge to continue through the end of this month and into the first 2 weeks of October.  Hints of the new LRC are beginning to show up in the LR which does NOT include a SE Ridge.  Interesting, ay???  You would think there would be one in a La Nina season but nature may have a different tune.  Well, for the most part, I do NOT see a strong signal for a -PNA pattern and the primary reason for this is what has transpired across the Aleutians the past 2 weeks and what is going to happen over the next 2 weeks to finish off the month of Sept.

 

Week 2 Temps/Precip...I'm seeing a strong CF to sweep through towards the tail end of the month across the central/eastern Sub, but before that we will see a "puff" of very warm and delightful late season warmth next week.  This model is showing a wet signal across the MW/OHV.

 

Y202009.D1612_gl2.png

 

Y202009.D1612_gl0.png

 

 

Week 3-4...Slightly Warm overall and Dry...I believe this will turn more wet during next weeks run given the 500mb pattern it is suggesting and what both the East Asian rule and BSR are showing.

 

Y202009.D1612_gl2.png

 

Y202009.D1612_gl0.png

 

 

Finally, I will end with this, here are the SST anomalies over the past 4 weeks and the shifting of the warm/cold pools across the N PAC/NE PAC are catching my attention.  

 

Aug 18th...

Y202008.D1912_gls.png

 

Aug 25th...

Y202008.D2612_gls.png

 

Sept 1st...

Y202009.D0212_gls.png

 

Sept 8th...

Y202009.D0912_gls.png

Sept 15th...

Y202009.D1612_gls.png

 

 

2.png

3.png

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That would probably hallmark one of the fastest NPAC realignments in history, as far as the warm pool is concerned.

There's not a better pattern for me in any book, map, drawing or diagram I have ever looked at before. In fact it's almost scary.

I hate the word perfect, but I have nothing else to say about it. I'm literally just waiting anxiously on the show at this point. 

Good work Tom.

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4 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

That would probably hallmark one of the fastest NPAC realignments in history, as far as the warm pool is concerned.

There's not a better pattern for me in any book, map, drawing or diagram I have ever looked at before. In fact it's almost scary.

I hate the word perfect, but I have nothing else to say about it. I'm literally just waiting anxiously on the show at this point. 

Good work Tom.

You said this same thing last year.

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Analyzing through all the data, it is becoming very clear we will be opening up the all-important month of October in a very different way compared to previous years.  How many October's in a row did we open up the month with a SER???  I have to look back but I think you can count at least 3 years ('16-'19) in a row.  Well, not this year it appears, as nearly every single model is starting to sniff out a "horse shoe" blocking pattern hook up over the top along with a Greenland Block...Lets rock???  Boom! 👊 

 

Since yesterday's early morning post, it's not surprising to me that all the models are now seeing the -NAO pattern next week into the first full week of October.  I'm digging the pattern evolution as we close out Sept and head into October.  I got a real good feeling about blocking being a big player this cold season.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_53.png

 

Yesterday's Euro Weeklies illustrating a long lasting -NAO pattern with NO signal for a SER during the month of October.  Another clue the BSR and the N PAC pattern is showing us clues that this years LRC will be quite different this season and chances are the Eastern CONUS may have a winter this season.  Check out the neutral and/or + PNA/-NAO  maps below off the Euro Weeklies.

 

Snow chances are on the rise across our central/northern members by mid October...Canada filling up nicely with snow by Nov 1st...could we just have ourselves an Old Fashioned winter this season????

 

 

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2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Where was your guess/prognostication/analysis/reasoning last year?

I don't remember it, if you had the courage to make one.

I didn't make one bc I don't pretend to be an expert on here. Each year when there's not an epic winter for you, you claim to have learned your lessons. Then the next fall you say it's another epic pattern for you and here comes the next mini ice age.

I admit it does take courage to forecast epic winters for Arkansas or Oklahoma every winter. Most people call that being a snow weenie or wishcaster though.

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This Winter is going to be warm and miserable for everyone. Rainstorms stretching up to Manitoba. @OmahaSnowFan had his dream come true!

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.7"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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On 9/17/2020 at 11:04 PM, OmahaSnowFan said:

You said this same thing last year.

In OKwx's defense, at this time last year the winter WAS actually looking stout. But, we had to re-learn the age old lesson that SON looking awesome is NOT a guarantee that DJFM will rock.

The weak-ish Modoki Nino was supposed to deliver the cold S and E but never did. It was another flavor of 18-19 when the winners were the W and N members of the sub. 19-20 was mostly the N members that did well as even your area (OMA) rode the line on many storms.

 

A couple maps from last year at this point:

 

20190913 POW Winter Snow map.PNG

20190913 POW Winter Summary map.PNG

2019-Sept WxBell winter temps.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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5 hours ago, jaster220 said:

In OKwx's defense, at this time last year the winter WAS actually looking stout. But, we had to re-learn the age old lesson that SON looking awesome is NOT a guarantee that DJFM will rock.

The weak-ish Modoki Nino was supposed to deliver the cold S and E but never did. It was another flavor of 18-19 when the winners were the W and N members of the sub. 19-20 was mostly the N members that did well as even your area (OMA) rode the line on many storms.

 

A couple maps from last year at this point:

 

20190913 POW Winter Snow map.PNG

20190913 POW Winter Summary map.PNG

2019-Sept WxBell winter temps.png

It still hurts what seemed like what "could have been" an amazing winter for many of us while the LRC was setting up last year during Oct/Nov.  I'll take that learning experience and move forward.  Lot's of lessons learned and I'm REALLY paying attn to those signals that didn't work out last year, for this year's cold season.  IMHO, the N PAC is catching my eye and the Greenland Block will be one of the wildcards this year.  In recent years, the G.B. seems to show up in the Autumn and then re-appear in the Spring when the jet is weaker or weakening, but then disappears when the jet intensifies during Winter (DJF).  I'm really curious to see if this year it breaks that trend.  

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NORTHWEST FLOW! My favorite!

Yeah I'll take a January 2019 with a crusty inch on the ground and highs consistently in the negatives, please.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.7"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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10 hours ago, jaster220 said:

In OKwx's defense, at this time last year the winter WAS actually looking stout. But, we had to re-learn the age old lesson that SON looking awesome is NOT a guarantee that DJFM will rock.

The weak-ish Modoki Nino was supposed to deliver the cold S and E but never did. It was another flavor of 18-19 when the winners were the W and N members of the sub. 19-20 was mostly the N members that did well as even your area (OMA) rode the line on many storms.

 

A couple maps from last year at this point:

I kinda feel like if October is cold and snowy, there's going to be a bad DJF. I remember some of the best winters being out on the lake in early November on a jet ski on a nice day, and then a week or two later it's under 28f long enough to cover the ski hill in snow. Kind of like someone just flipped a switch and went, "hey buddy it's time to get off the water and get on the snow."

Last year we had that early snow on Halloween (IIRC) got a nice cold snap, and then everything until Christmas was foobar. I remember because Alpine Valley blew snow first cold chance they got (their earliest opening over, I was out of town because they never open that early), and some of the other places waited.  The places that waited barely made it open for Christmas season.

A very nice cold snap in the second or third week of November is perfect for making snow and giving me a long season.

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7 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

NORTHWEST FLOW! My favorite!

Yeah I'll take a January 2019 with a crusty inch on the ground and highs consistently in the negatives, please.

Never forget Jan 2019 with a high of 2 and just a crusty patchy dusting on the ground. Awesome winter overall, but that cold snap came right after a thaw lol. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

2020-21: 2.9" (so far)

 

Average: 25.9"

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Not a fall or winter guess but just looking as some average last and first events at Grand Rapids.

As we are now past the half way mark of September 2020 I thought it would be a good time to take a look as some upcoming first and last events at Grand Rapids.  The average last 90° day at Grand Rapids is August 23rd the earliest last one was on June 10, 2000 the latest was on September 29, 1953. 1951 and 2014 did NOT have a day officially reach 90 at Grand Rapids. Last year the last day was July 20th and this year GR had 16 days of 90 or better with the last one on August 26th The average last 85° day is September 14th the earliest was on August 12, 1989 and the latest was on October 21, 1953. Last year the last one was on September 21st The average last 80° day at Grand Rapids is September 30th the earliest was on August 28, 1918 the latest was on November 1, 1950 Last year it was on September 30th The average last 75° day at GR is October 13th the earliest was September 15, 1981 the Latest was on November 6, 1975 Last year it was on October 1st The average last 70 day is October 24th the earliest was October 1st 1925 and the latest was November 23, 1931 last year to was on October 10th

The 1st 32° low that will signal the end of the growing season. Before I get to that I will remind everyone that the last 32° low last spring was on May 13th and while there was a green up Grand Rapids also had lows of 26 on May 9th and lows of 29 on the 8th and 12th So the official start of the 2020 growing season was on May 14th  At Grand Rapids the average first low of 32 is on October 13th The earliest was September3, 1946. The Latest was November 14, 1918. Last year it was on October 18th  For a killing frost of 28 the average is October 28th The earliest was on September 23, 1974 and the latest was on November 29, 1948 Last year it was on November 5th

For a hard freeze of 25 the average is November 8th the earliest was on October 3, 1974. The latest was on December 23, 2001 (talk about late) Last year it was on November 6th

And for snow fall. The average that the first 1” snow fall occurs on is November 19th the earliest 1” snow fall was on October 12, 2006 the latest was on December 23, 2011. Last year it was on November 11th

For a 3” snow fall the average first one is on December 5th the earliest one was on October 19, 1989 the latest was on March 16, 1949 Last year it was on November 11th when 5.5” of snow fell.

This past week we had a lot of high-level smoke and that made the sky look a pale milky white on several days. It more than likely also held the daytime temperature down.

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On 9/18/2020 at 5:06 PM, OmahaSnowFan said:

I didn't make one bc I don't pretend to be an expert on here. Each year when there's not an epic winter for you, you claim to have learned your lessons. Then the next fall you say it's another epic pattern for you and here comes the next mini ice age.

I admit it does take courage to forecast epic winters for Arkansas or Oklahoma every winter. Most people call that being a snow weenie or wishcaster though.

I've never made pretense one time that I'm anything but a very imperfect but kind and intelligent man who loves weather. I hope I haven't lead you to feel otherwise and I'm sorry if I have made you feel that way.

You're fair, I took one shot recently at the NWS over neglecting a significant cold front when guidance was pretty well settled on it being noteworthy within 8 day range. Ultimately the result was, the temps split the difference between their thoughts and mine. Call it a wash. 

I have known that at some point a sharp cliff is coming and, no, im not yet sure why the pattern kept reverting back or would retrograde right at the core of winter other than the tropical domain has been incredibly dominant now for over 4 years. Not even NOAA quite has the tropics figured out yet and neither do our GFS/CFS as noted often by their revisions and sudden cat 4-5 hurricanes. I think I'm justified.

I'm just a hobbyist that loves and really cares about people. If you really want to know the truth. God bless you. I make mistakes, but I'm willing to learn, its how we learn sometimes through effort, frustration, adversity and more. I hope I never stop learning because it would mean that I quit trying.

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I did it in September in those 3 years also, vs November 1 like most of those last revision maps that Jaster shared. 

I'm going to research the 2015-2020 weather period for a really long time if I can because there's probably so much missed stuff in it and a lot to learn. It's been a truly unusual era in weather/climate.

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I spotted something this morning when flipping through the models and if you look at the 500mb pattern across N.A later next week, it almost looks like what the CFSv2 is currently forecasting for the month of October.  A glimpse of whats to come???  I'm already anticipating to see an active northern stream this coming season as being one Exhibit of the developing LRC.  The BIG difference this cold season will be the Greenland Block that I truly believe will show up in the colder months.  This will allow a southerly shift in the storm track.  I got this feeling December will continue the theme this Autumn...#FlipTheScript

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_24.png

 

 

Compared to the CFSv2...

 

cfs-mon_01_z500a_namer_1.png

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If the Greenland block really is that prominent, the trough will actually be in retrogression all through the month, so I'd center it right over the center of the US.

Cold outbreak driving down the front of the Rockies next month is almost 100 percent.

Lock-n-load. 

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Our little airport here in Marshall sits on a bit of a plateau and still hit 32F last Saturday morning. I'm pretty confident that low-lying areas were sub-freezing. I've been here 18 years now and can't remember such an early explosion of color around these parts.

Took these today just a couple miles south of the airport:

 

20200924_142026_resized (2).jpg

20200924_142100_resized (2).jpg

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Our little airport here in Marshall sits on a bit of a plateau and still hit 32F last Saturday morning. I'm pretty confident that low-lying areas were sub-freezing. I've been here 18 years now and can't remember such an early explosion of color around these parts.

Took these today just a couple miles south of the airport:

 

20200924_142026_resized (2).jpg

20200924_142100_resized (2).jpg

Excellent pics Jaster! 👍

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7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Our little airport here in Marshall sits on a bit of a plateau and still hit 32F last Saturday morning. I'm pretty confident that low-lying areas were sub-freezing. I've been here 18 years now and can't remember such an early explosion of color around these parts.

Took these today just a couple miles south of the airport:

 

20200924_142026_resized (2).jpg

20200924_142100_resized (2).jpg

I was thinking the same thing over here while taking a walk the other day.  It does seem like that early cold spell in Sept really kicked things off and the cool nights and warm/dry days are certainly helping along with plenty of sunshine.  We may be having a banner year for fall colors this year.

 

I know up north, they are reaching their peak season and some gorgeous colors are showing up in the Northwoods and Arrowhead of MN.

 

Map of current fall colors in Minnesota with color coded ranges

 

https://www.travelwisconsin.com/fall-color-report

 

This weekend is shaping up to be a fantastic weekend for the outdoors across the region.  

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After analyzing both the Euro and JMA weeklies from yesterday, it does look very likely that the eastern CONUS will have the coldest open to October in possibly a Decade believe it or not.  All intents and purposes, it appears this Autumn is going to provide the eastern CONUS with a different flavor and what the western Sub has dealt with in recent October opens.  You can thank the +PNA which I jumped on a couple weeks ago according to the N PAC pattern and utilizing the BSR as a wonderful long range forecasting method.  The SER is will be all but non-existent throughout the month of October from what I'm seeing.  The western ridge will prob want to poke into the central and northern Sub sometime mid month allowing a "pullback" to occur during the middle of October.  I do see somewhat of a warm spell setting up for a lot of us after some chilly weather to open up the first 10 days of October.  The risks that I see to the extent of the warmth across the eastern Sub, is the continuation of a +PNA and -AO/-NAO pattern that may keep the anchor trough nearby as the new LRC develops.

 

Take a look at both the Euro and JMA weeklies for the middle of October and they are both suggesting the ridge to build into the heart of the nation.  Another bout of Indian Summer...round 2???  Could be good weather for Fall colors as a lot of peeps on here enter peak season right around that time.

 

Interestingly, while the Euro Weeklies were very warm towards the end of October and early November, it's control run and the ensemble mean are sniffing out some possible snow by the end of October but esp early November.  Notice how over the next 45 days the Euro Weeklies are indicating an expansive snow cover over the central/eastern part of Canada.  "If you build it, thy will come"...nature providing us signs that the Hudson Bay Vortex will be forming early and often this Autumn up north.  How far it displaces is the question, if it does at all come November and potentially...Decembrrrr???  I got some ideas but won't throw them out just yet, but I will predict that WxBell will be making some adjustments, prob BIG adjustment to their winter forecast.  The East will have a winter this season.

 

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

I was thinking the same thing over here while taking a walk the other day.  It does seem like that early cold spell in Sept really kicked things off and the cool nights and warm/dry days are certainly helping along with plenty of sunshine.  We may be having a banner year for fall colors this year.

I know up north, they are reaching their peak season and some gorgeous colors are showing up in the Northwoods and Arrowhead of MN.

 

This falls seems to have an earlier color peak and one of the most vibrant in my memory.  But I have noticed over the years that the intensity and timing of fall color seems to be completely uncorrelated with weather conditions with the exception of significant summer/fall drought conditions leading to early leaf change.  But, in this case of drought, the color tends to be very dull and drab.  

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Today Paul Pastelok(Accuweather long range guesser)  came out with his updated winter 2020/21 guess  For our area he is guessing for a wet and mild winter He it claiming that temperatures will run about +2 and that rain and snow melt with be between 125% and 149% above average. He has only a short written summery for some of our area. “ Early season chill is expected in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley into the Northeast, then a big turn midseason, ease back on extreme cold, higher temperature departures and less snowfall for mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley.” For areas to our east he has this to say.

“ Another overall mild winter is possible for much of the eastern United States, but chances are better this winter for front end and back end wintry, colder weather in the Northeast leading to near-normal snowfall for much of New England and off Lake Ontario. Watch for a couple of spin-up snowstorms off the New England coast.”

 

 

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2 hours ago, westMJim said:

Today Paul Pastelok(Accuweather long range guesser)  came out with his updated winter 2020/21 guess  For our area he is guessing for a wet and mild winter He it claiming that temperatures will run about +2 and that rain and snow melt with be between 125% and 149% above average. He has only a short written summery for some of our area. “ Early season chill is expected in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley into the Northeast, then a big turn midseason, ease back on extreme cold, higher temperature departures and less snowfall for mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley.” For areas to our east he has this to say.

“ Another overall mild winter is possible for much of the eastern United States, but chances are better this winter for front end and back end wintry, colder weather in the Northeast leading to near-normal snowfall for much of New England and off Lake Ontario. Watch for a couple of spin-up snowstorms off the New England coast.”

 

 

I can actually support and/or understand legitimate reasoning if a lot of folks are going to go this route with the East/New England/Eastern Great Lakes in terms of a "hit, then burn out" pattern.

Hard to say. The tropics and mid-latitude oceans are going to be a wild card this winter as well as the increased volcanism, etc. Lots of questions remaining.

 

Cold, old-fashioned start is my call and it looks like a homerun for now, but we'll see.

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3 hours ago, westMJim said:

Today Paul Pastelok(Accuweather long range guesser)  came out with his updated winter 2020/21 guess  For our area he is guessing for a wet and mild winter He it claiming that temperatures will run about +2 and that rain and snow melt with be between 125% and 149% above average. He has only a short written summery for some of our area. “ Early season chill is expected in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley into the Northeast, then a big turn midseason, ease back on extreme cold, higher temperature departures and less snowfall for mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley.” For areas to our east he has this to say.

“ Another overall mild winter is possible for much of the eastern United States, but chances are better this winter for front end and back end wintry, colder weather in the Northeast leading to near-normal snowfall for much of New England and off Lake Ontario. Watch for a couple of spin-up snowstorms off the New England coast.”

 

 

I think a call for early cold makes sense and is known Nina climo. A sustained winter like 07-08 would be the game changer from the past 2 winters. He says no, more of the same expected. Tom's leaning solid winter. Let's see..

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Unfortunately, it is all a guessing game. Who will be right and who will be wrong. Fun to see what happens though, that's for sure. Let Ma Nature take care of this. She always does it her way! Hope we get a snowy, frigid one. Right now, the extended outlook has my area for December cold and snowy ⛷️ Lets see how that turns out!

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4 hours ago, Niko said:

Unfortunately, it is all a guessing game. Who will be right and who will be wrong. Fun to see what happens though, that's for sure. Let Ma Nature take care of this. She always does it her way! Hope we get a snowy, frigid one. Right now, the extended outlook has my area for December cold and snowy ⛷️ Lets see how that turns out!

Why we really need one over our way..

 

20200202 MW Percent Snowfall last 2 winters.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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LR clues why I believe the Eastern CONUS will have a Winter this season:

1) CFSv2 trending towards a stronger La Nina and especially holding the colerd waters near ENSO 3.4 region (-2C peak in Dec)

2) NE PAC Ridge will be a driving influence across North America

3) Scandinavian/Ural Blocking (models trend stronger with blocking as we get closer in time)

cfs-mon_01_z500a_nhem_1.png

  4) Sub Surface cold pool is positioning itself across the central/eastern PAC...

 

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

 

Lastly, the question remains, if and when we will have a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Event.  This is the biggest unknown and one that can really bust a forecast.  I'm not sure when we will see one this year, but if/when we do, I think it'll be massive given low solar and what I'm seeing already evolving at 10mb/30mb.  There also appears to be a signal that the Snow Advance Index (SAI) across Eurasia to be on the rise in October.  Next month is surely to provide some important clues.  I'm excited as I'm sure you are to see what transpires.  Of course, there is the risk that the models are wrong on the SST forecasts and therefore all of the above mentioned is completely wrong.  We'll have to see the trends as the seasonal model data continues to come in later this week.

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