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2020-21 Autumn & Winter Discussion


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Wow, didn't realize the Nina was going to that strength. I remember some research showing that the extreme ENSO states {both + & -} were not too friendly for SMI. Having said that, recent winters have pretty much tossed any notions of expecting a traditional outcome when adding up all the "drivers" within any given ENSO state. I've seen a full on Nino deliver a cold and snowy winter (09-10), and a winter with a raging +AO bring the historic cold n snow (13-14). We even had a Mega-Nino deliver an above normal snowfall winter with (4) major storms (15-16). Then there's the past 2 winters when the weak Nino failed us miserably. I know there have been some strong Nina's deliver for this region, so I'm not considering this one a "toss". Regardless, I'll take my chances with a strong Nina over a strong Nino any time.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I was able to shoot a few hours north to the Starvation Lake area on my day off. It's a tad early even for NCMI but I was hopeful things might be running ahead of schedule there like downstate. Not su

Some have said it's possibly a blend of 10-11 and 13-14. Now that'd be interesting. When you're in the highest range of the weenie/clownage maps, yet it's legit. Now that's #FUN One of my be

Hope all are well. Those who know me know I post little during the warm season, especially with the virtually non-existent tornado season in this era. Gimme an 07-08 Nina repeat and I'd be a very happ

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On 9/28/2020 at 6:41 AM, Tom said:

LR clues why I believe the Eastern CONUS will have a Winter this season:

1) CFSv2 trending towards a stronger La Nina and especially holding the colerd waters near ENSO 3.4 region (-2C peak in Dec)

2) NE PAC Ridge will be a driving influence across North America

3) Scandinavian/Ural Blocking (models trend stronger with blocking as we get closer in time)

cfs-mon_01_z500a_nhem_1.png

  4) Sub Surface cold pool is positioning itself across the central/eastern PAC...

 

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

 

Lastly, the question remains, if and when we will have a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Event.  This is the biggest unknown and one that can really bust a forecast.  I'm not sure when we will see one this year, but if/when we do, I think it'll be massive given low solar and what I'm seeing already evolving at 10mb/30mb.  There also appears to be a signal that the Snow Advance Index (SAI) across Eurasia to be on the rise in October.  Next month is surely to provide some important clues.  I'm excited as I'm sure you are to see what transpires.  Of course, there is the risk that the models are wrong on the SST forecasts and therefore all of the above mentioned is completely wrong.  We'll have to see the trends as the seasonal model data continues to come in later this week.

1.gif

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An interesting Blog article written by Judah Cohen touches on a few key points regarding the Polar Vortex status and what may lie ahead.  I mentioned in this post (a day before his post), that I see signals the Snow Advance Index (SAI) could be quite high this season across Siberia.  He seems to be siding with that general idea as well.  What's noteworthy, is the weakened state of the PV thus far, this early in the season.  As always, it's a "to be continued" wait and see how the strat behaves.  The PV is a wild card like in every season.  The article is an interesting read if you have the time: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

 

 

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I'm now in the middle of the 2nd legit serious cold wave so far this month (and early autumn). And while the in-between weeks included some highs that were above normal I don't think most were, thus I expect the month to come in below avg. The question I am wondering about is whether these BN stretches that only moderate to +/- normal will continue straight into the flake season? Guess we'll see how Oct plays out. '89, '92, '95, and 2000 are years when it did exactly that. Others like '07 and '08 had more mild temps until December. The vaunted '13 was mild until the serious flip 2/3 of the way thru October. Oct of 2013 here was truly a hard flip and it never looked back. Really wondering how this will go?

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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21 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I'm now in the middle of the 2nd legit serious cold wave so far this month (and early autumn). And while the in-between weeks included some highs that were above normal I don't think most were, thus I expect the month to come in below avg. The question I am wondering about is whether these BN stretches that only moderate to +/- normal will continue straight into the flake season? Guess we'll see how Oct plays out. '89, '92, '95, and 2000 are years when it did exactly that. Others like '07 and '08 had more mild temps until December. The vaunted '13 was mild until the serious flip 2/3 of the way thru October. Oct of 2013 here was truly a hard flip and it never looked back. Really wondering how this will go?

Indeed and lows Saturday morning will be mighty chilly my friend. Temps here imby will be near 32F and I would not be surprised, if someone drops in the upper 20s. Frost will be widespread. I cant recall seeing frost so early in the season last year, or any other year.

Btw: The rainstorm that we are getting this upcoming Sunday (a legit rainfall, all day )is taking a superb track. Geez, if it were in the colder months, you and I would have been getting ready for a major snowstorm to strike our area.

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12 minutes ago, Niko said:

Indeed and lows Saturday morning will be might chilly my friend. Temps here imby will be near 32F and I would not be surprised, if someone drops in the upper 20s. Frost will be widespread. I cant recall seeing frost so early in the season last year, or any other year.

Btw: The rainstorm that we are getting this upcoming Sunday (a legit rainfall, all day )is taking a superb track. Geez, if it were in the colder months, you and I would have been getting ready for a major snowstorm to strike our area.

Sounds awesome and I'm hopeful it's a signal for our winter pattern. Just curious, are you seeing the track details by TWC or where exactly? I don't usually even look at the wx model sites for rainstorms as some do in here.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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10 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Sounds awesome and I'm hopeful it's a signal for our winter pattern. Just curious, are you seeing the track details by TWC or where exactly? I don't usually even look at the wx model sites for rainstorms as some do in here.

I look at the "Clouds and Radar Forecast."

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4 minutes ago, Niko said:

I look at the "Clouds and Radar Forecast."

ok, but what site? got link? thx

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Saw this tweet by @Ben Noll regarding the latest CanSIPS seasonal and the trends are looking promising for the eastern Sub.

Quote

New CanSIPS: a 25-30% chance for below average winter temps in the northern & eastern U.S. In other words, average to above average temps are more likely. contour = areas where BELOW AVERAGE temps are the MOST LIKELY (>33.3%) outcome... includes Ohio Valley, Northwest

 

Edit: This map looks similar to the trends in the IRI multi-model ensemble I posted a couple weeks back.

1.jpg

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13 hours ago, jaster220 said:

ok, but what site? got link? thx

Download for "Free" (my favorite word tbh) the "New Weather App" on one of your devices

This App goes w me everywhere I go 😃

 

 

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On 10/1/2020 at 6:39 AM, Tom said:

Saw this tweet by @Ben Noll regarding the latest CanSIPS seasonal and the trends are looking promising for the eastern Sub.

 

Edit: This map looks similar to the trends in the IRI multi-model ensemble I posted a couple weeks back.

1.jpg

Any idea what the purple line(s) indicate? OHV has a zone.

OHV Temps Zoom.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I was able to shoot a few hours north to the Starvation Lake area on my day off. It's a tad early even for NCMI but I was hopeful things might be running ahead of schedule there like downstate. Not sure that's the case, or they got zapped too strong last month. Idk, but I've seen more impressive colors then today's. Certainly not peak, but with my schedule my next chance will probably be too late to catch peak anyways. Was certainly sweatshirt weather as my car thermo sat at 43F. Never really hit this area before and to give you an idea just how quiet it is post-summer, there were 3 gents with a make-shift race course for their RC cars on the paved road. And this on a Friday evening. It was late day, and the sun was in/out so lighting was horrible plus my phone cam ranges from decent to pathetic in it's auto focusing. Nonetheless I managed to get a few keepers to share.

 

20201002_171028_resized.jpg

20201002_172137_resized.jpg

20201002_175250_resized.jpg

20201002_180243_resized.jpg

20201002_180257_resized.jpg

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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5 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Any idea what the purple line(s) indicate? OHV has a zone.

OHV Temps Zoom.PNG

You prob missed the quote right above the graphic where it says "contour = areas where BELOW AVERAGE temps are the MOST LIKELY (>33.3%) outcome... includes Ohio Valley, Northwest"

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

You prob missed the quote right above the graphic where it says "contour = areas where BELOW AVERAGE temps are the MOST LIKELY (>33.3%) outcome... includes Ohio Valley, Northwest"

Ok, gotcha now. However, the wording got me. "Most likely" is really "most likely of the least likely", lol since even that zone verbatim has a 66.7% probability of warmer than avg, correct? Idk, maybe I'm just confused by the entire color scheme and how it's conveying the info.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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11 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I was able to shoot a few hours north to the Starvation Lake area on my day off. It's a tad early even for NCMI but I was hopeful things might be running ahead of schedule there like downstate. Not sure that's the case, or they got zapped too strong last month. Idk, but I've seen more impressive colors then today's. Certainly not peak, but with my schedule my next chance will probably be too late to catch peak anyways. Was certainly sweatshirt weather as my car thermo sat at 43F. Never really hit this area before and to give you an idea just how quiet it is post-summer, there were 3 gents with a make-shift race course for their RC cars on the paved road. And this on a Friday evening. It was late day, and the sun was in/out so lighting was horrible plus my phone cam ranges from decent to pathetic in it's auto focusing. Nonetheless I managed to get a few keepers to share.

 

20201002_171028_resized.jpg

20201002_172137_resized.jpg

20201002_175250_resized.jpg

20201002_180243_resized.jpg

20201002_180257_resized.jpg

Gorgeous photos, Jaster!

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12 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I was able to shoot a few hours north to the Starvation Lake area on my day off. It's a tad early even for NCMI but I was hopeful things might be running ahead of schedule there like downstate. Not sure that's the case, or they got zapped too strong last month. Idk, but I've seen more impressive colors then today's. Certainly not peak, but with my schedule my next chance will probably be too late to catch peak anyways. Was certainly sweatshirt weather as my car thermo sat at 43F. Never really hit this area before and to give you an idea just how quiet it is post-summer, there were 3 gents with a make-shift race course for their RC cars on the paved road. And this on a Friday evening. It was late day, and the sun was in/out so lighting was horrible plus my phone cam ranges from decent to pathetic in it's auto focusing. Nonetheless I managed to get a few keepers to share.

 

20201002_171028_resized.jpg

20201002_172137_resized.jpg

20201002_175250_resized.jpg

20201002_180243_resized.jpg

20201002_180257_resized.jpg

Can you imagine you get stranded there at nighttime??!!! Good luck w that! 😆

Cool pics!

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5 hours ago, Niko said:

Can you imagine you get stranded there at nighttime??!!! Good luck w that! 😆

Cool pics!

In the era of cell phones, no worries. But I lived there before that, and yes, a break down at the wrong time could be a bad experience. Also, the snow squalls can be so bad people often run off the road into the trees. Ofc, they don't always die since the low vis generally means they aren't going too fast to begin with, but I definitely heard of people getting killed by running off the road in blinding snow up there.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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On 10/3/2020 at 12:24 AM, jaster220 said:

I was able to shoot a few hours north to the Starvation Lake area on my day off. It's a tad early even for NCMI but I was hopeful things might be running ahead of schedule there like downstate. Not sure that's the case, or they got zapped too strong last month. Idk, but I've seen more impressive colors then today's. Certainly not peak, but with my schedule my next chance will probably be too late to catch peak anyways. Was certainly sweatshirt weather as my car thermo sat at 43F. Never really hit this area before and to give you an idea just how quiet it is post-summer, there were 3 gents with a make-shift race course for their RC cars on the paved road. And this on a Friday evening. It was late day, and the sun was in/out so lighting was horrible plus my phone cam ranges from decent to pathetic in it's auto focusing. Nonetheless I managed to get a few keepers to share.

 

20201002_171028_resized.jpg

20201002_172137_resized.jpg

20201002_175250_resized.jpg

20201002_180243_resized.jpg

20201002_180257_resized.jpg

Love this!

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On 10/3/2020 at 7:40 PM, jaster220 said:

In the era of cell phones, no worries. But I lived there before that, and yes, a break down at the wrong time could be a bad experience. Also, the snow squalls can be so bad people often run off the road into the trees. Ofc, they don't always die since the low vis generally means they aren't going too fast to begin with, but I definitely heard of people getting killed by running off the road in blinding snow up there.

I can only imagine how awesome it will look during a major snowstorm there w all of that open land. I definately have to go up north for a visit. My list has Mackinau Island on it. Hopefully, after the Pandemic.

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10 hours ago, Niko said:

I can only imagine how awesome it will look during a major snowstorm there w all of that open land. I definately have to go up north for a visit. My list has Mackinau Island on it. Hopefully, after the Pandemic.

It can look like winter paradise when conditions come together such as following the March 5th 2012 Big Dog storm. Its the (sometimes unforecast) LES squalls and blowing that pose the greater travel hazards. I experience several of those. Was on US31 heading to Mackinaw one day and near the airport in Charlevoix the drifts were huge and whiteout conditions were real. Almost had a head-on collision with a plow. This no ordinary plow. This thing was custom with a 10 foot tall blade they used to push back the huge drifts. Seeing that looming out of nowhere in a whiteout was mega-spooky. Would've been like hitting a brick wall. A narrow miss by maybe 4 feet was too close for comfort. Whiteouts have caused deaths in pile-ups on the interstate too. Dangerous stuff!

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

It can look like winter paradise when conditions come together such as following the March 5th 2012 Big Dog storm. Its the (sometimes unforecast) LES squalls and blowing that pose the greater travel hazards. I experience several of those. Was on US31 heading to Mackinaw one day and near the airport in Charlevoix the drifts were huge and whiteout conditions were real. Almost had a head-on collision with a plow. This no ordinary plow. This thing was custom with a 10 foot tall blade they used to push back the huge drifts. Seeing that looming out of nowhere in a whiteout was mega-spooky. Would've been like hitting a brick wall. A narrow miss by maybe 4 feet was too close for comfort. Whiteouts have caused deaths in pile-ups on the interstate too. Dangerous stuff!

Man, that sounds like real dangerous driving conditions. Even for those people who are used to all of this craziness, I am sure that it is a big challenge to them.

Btw: when I go up north someday to visit, it will have to be during the Summer for sure. I don't want to be there during the crazy months. 😃

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Per the AWSSI, the bar has been set very very low by last winter. At least for the SE half of the sub.

DJF were all AN. I'll wager we improve on this.

 

 

2019-20 CONUS AWSSI map.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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20 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Per the AWSSI, the bar has been set very very low by last winter. At least for the SE half of the sub.

DJF were all AN. I'll wager we improve on this.

 

 

2019-20 CONUS AWSSI map.PNG

Will be a stark contrast anywhere south of Nebraska even if we see an average winter here. Been over 4 years of milktoast and 34 degree rain.

Hit 35 Monday morning. Unsure if it's official yet or not. Pretty awesome for 10/05, but as we know, autumnal cold hasn't meant much in recent years. 

---

The last big full moon of the warm season ended Sunday probably. I don't track it with perfection. (Sorry) By next month at this time, it will feel like an entirely different world. Maybe for a lot of reasons but hopefully because of winter showing a flash. Niña loves to show off that polar blasting flair and I'm sure it's returning soon. My rivers and lakes are filled. My aquifers are all full and restored again. The great weather is making for one of the most beautiful autumns in 20 years here and I can't thank God enough for that.

Lots of reflection today.

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On 9/6/2020 at 7:26 AM, Tom said:

So, the big clue coming out of the Euro seasonal is the blocking that is trending up across Canada and the Pole as we get closer in time.  The La Nina signal is growing colder and stronger across the central & eastern equatorial PAC.  October has come in much colder for the central/southern Plains and wetter.  November temp map looks skeptical and prob advertising a warm bias.  Look at the blow torch over the Pole/Archipelago and how does that translate to a warm CONUS???  Needless to say, these are positive signs for the new LRC.

 

 

1.png

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I'm quoting this post to show you a comparison to the latest Euro seasonal run and the continuation of the modeling "missing" the blocking.  Take a look at the latest Oct 500mb forecast below which has turned remarkably colder for the eastern CONUS.  Greenland Block anyone???  These are the type of old-fashioned late 70's maps you would like to see in the heart of winter.  

 

1.png

2.png

 

 

Now, this is where I think the models are ALL busting in the longer range as once we get into the Winter months, the high lat blocking disappears and we go back to the same ol' story we have seen in previous seasons.  Could the PV be strong this year???  Yes, it sure can like it did back in recent October/November periods when everything was going great in mid/late Autumn and then...Poof...the winter ended up a warm one, esp the start of winter in December.  Except for Dec '17 near the MW/GL's when winter started off rather cold, you have to go back to Dec' 13 when there was actually a fun start to the holiday and winter season.  Could there be a Dec' 2010 flavor this season???  Some analogs are certainly pointing that way and recent daily runs of the CFSv2 are suggesting it also.  First year La Nina and a -NAO pattern may be the clue we are looking for this season.  The ONI index leading up to the Winter in the autumn of 2010 (SON) was -1.7C and that winter ended up -1.4C (moderate Nina).

December 2010...

Dec10TDeptUS.png

 

What does the Euro show for December???

3.png

4.png

 

 

And January???  Poof goes the blocking and we welcome January 2021 with a Blow Torch...is it to be trusted??  We shall see but my gut says not this season.

5.png

 

2.png

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Hmmmm....close to it....

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_10.png

 

image.png

I can only hope that being in the middle like that means an unsettled pattern for here.

It probably means NW flow.

  • Snow 1

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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14 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

I can only hope that being in the middle like that means an unsettled pattern for here.

It probably means NW flow.

Been mentioned elsewhere that 2013 was a weak Nina. How was 13-14 in FAR?

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Been mentioned elsewhere that 2013 was a weak Nina. How was 13-14 in FAR?

Dismal.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

I'm quoting this post to show you a comparison to the latest Euro seasonal run and the continuation of the modeling "missing" the blocking.  Take a look at the latest Oct 500mb forecast below which has turned remarkably colder for the eastern CONUS.  Greenland Block anyone???  These are the type of old-fashioned late 70's maps you would like to see in the heart of winter.  

 

1.png

2.png

 

 

Now, this is where I think the models are ALL busting in the longer range as once we get into the Winter months, the high lat blocking disappears and we go back to the same ol' story we have seen in previous seasons.  Could the PV be strong this year???  Yes, it sure can like it did back in recent October/November periods when everything was going great in mid/late Autumn and then...Poof...the winter ended up a warm one, esp the start of winter in December.  Except for Dec '17 near the MW/GL's when winter started off rather cold, you have to go back to Dec' 13 when there was actually a fun start to the holiday and winter season.  Could there be a Dec' 2010 flavor this season???  Some analogs are certainly pointing that way and recent daily runs of the CFSv2 are suggesting it also.  First year La Nina and a -NAO pattern may be the clue we are looking for this season.  The ONI index leading up to the Winter in the autumn of 2010 (SON) was -1.7C and that winter ended up -1.4C (moderate Nina).

December 2010...

Dec10TDeptUS.png

 

What does the Euro show for December???

3.png

4.png

 

 

And January???  Poof goes the blocking and we welcome January 2021 with a Blow Torch...is it to be trusted??  We shall see but my gut says not this season.

5.png

 

2.png

I don't like this one bit. I always feel like there's a cycle and we only get a few bursts of these cold patterns with blocking, and winter is only good when they show up in January or February. If that October map was for DJF I would be happy.

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3 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

I don't like this one bit. I always feel like there's a cycle and we only get a few bursts of these cold patterns with blocking, and winter is only good when they show up in January or February. If that October map was for DJF I would be happy.

I just hope the Greenland Block shows up this year for once and the models are wrong in the Longer Range and not picking up on it.  Let's see how this Autumn shakes out first before we get into the cold season.

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

I just hope the Greenland Block shows up this year for once and the models are wrong in the Longer Range and not picking up on it.  Let's see how this Autumn shakes out first before we get into the cold season.

Models are always wrong in the long range so I'd say we have a good shot.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

I just hope the Greenland Block shows up this year for once and the models are wrong in the Longer Range and not picking up on it.  Let's see how this Autumn shakes out first before we get into the cold season.

What is the one thing that can nix this GB from forming this upcoming Winter season. As you mentioned earlier in your post, the Winter of 2013-14 was the last time this block showed its true presence here and also in 2017.

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31 minutes ago, Niko said:

What is the one thing that can nix this GB from forming this upcoming Winter season. As you mentioned earlier in your post, the Winter of 2013-14 was the last time this block showed its true presence here and also in 2017.

Winter of '13-'14 had virtually Zero blocking and the primary atmospheric driving force was the stout -EPO/-WPO.  We had a strong PV but it was more elongated and thus funneled arctic air into the U.S.  If we have another year with a strong PV and no blocking it won't go well but I got a good feeling we'll have it this year.  2 consecutive years of low solar, going into the 3rd year this year, should allow the delayed response towards a -AO/-NAO pattern.  I read once somewhere that it typically takes 2-3 years of low solar to see a response in the high lats during winter.  Another thing that has been mentioned is the record low sea ice near Scandinavia (eastern Arctic) which would allow HP to form in the Winter.

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4 minutes ago, Tom said:

Winter of '13-'14 had virtually Zero blocking and the primary atmospheric driving force was the stout -EPO.  We had a strong PV but it was more elongated and thus funneled arctic air into the U.S.  If we have another year with a strong PV and no blocking it won't go well but I got a good feeling we'll have it this year.  2 consecutive years of low solar, going into the 3rd year this year, should allow the delayed response towards a -AO/-NAO pattern.  I read once somewhere that it typically takes 2-3 years of low solar to see a response in the high lats during winter.  Another thing that has been mentioned is the record low sea ice near Scandinavia (eastern Arctic) which would allow HP to form in the Winter.

Appreciate the info!

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6 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Dismal.

He seems to be following you around the country. Should tell him to go away, lol

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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19 hours ago, Tom said:

Winter of '13-'14 had virtually Zero blocking and the primary atmospheric driving force was the stout -EPO/-WPO.  We had a strong PV but it was more elongated and thus funneled arctic air into the U.S.  If we have another year with a strong PV and no blocking it won't go well but I got a good feeling we'll have it this year.  2 consecutive years of low solar, going into the 3rd year this year, should allow the delayed response towards a -AO/-NAO pattern.  I read once somewhere that it typically takes 2-3 years of low solar to see a response in the high lats during winter.  Another thing that has been mentioned is the record low sea ice near Scandinavia (eastern Arctic) which would allow HP to form in the Winter.

I forgot about the low solar activity. Seems like a good winter always lags by a few years from the start of low solar activity, and we're right in the proper range.

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On 10/7/2020 at 10:12 AM, jaster220 said:

Been mentioned elsewhere that 2013 was a weak Nina. How was 13-14 in FAR?

Winter 2013-2014 was freaking cold  for all of the norther plains!

https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/13_14_winter_recap.html

"Indeed, the winter of 2013-2014 will be the standard against which others are compared for many years."

I recall many stories by mid to late winter of water mains freezing in my area, despite deep snow cover and code mandating 8'+ water main depths.

The fargo/grand forks missed out on big snowfall that fell in the Minnesota arrowhead.

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Like the 2010 reference. Hearkens back to my July and August posts a bit. Has 2010 flavors all over it. 

The other year brought up was 2013 and I will hold Tom's view of that, largely. Can't disagree. I'd add that another cause of such an atmosoheric anomaly that brought lobes of the true PV over us and blocked up areas over the west was the warm pool in the North Pacific or North Pacific Warm Pool, "Blob",  etc...

There's largely enough evidence that in times of or after low solar occurs, the N. Pac can influence patterns downstream. If it is to be believed that subtle variation and variance in arctic ice can be causative, even something as water pending can affect albedo, feedbacks, and much more; then one would be foolish to think that 5°c variance in high lat oceans wouldn't have an effect downstream over the CONUS.

Just some observations and points. Good stuff.

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13 hours ago, Beltrami Island said:

Winter 2013-2014 was freaking cold  for all of the norther plains!

https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/13_14_winter_recap.html

"Indeed, the winter of 2013-2014 will be the standard against which others are compared for many years."

I recall many stories by mid to late winter of water mains freezing in my area, despite deep snow cover and code mandating 8'+ water main depths.

The fargo/grand forks missed out on big snowfall that fell in the Minnesota arrowhead.

I remember running into a crazy guy on my snowmobile at the fuel station that year. It was really cold and snowy the week before and finally started to "warm up", the guy was asking me if I was out in the cold and telling me it was awesome. He also said he had frostbite/windburn so bad on his face the skin actually cracked.

Super cold is awesome for me, I've been going snowboarding when the wind chill is -10 or -20, it scares everyone else away completely. I usually have a private terrain park, it's freaking awesome. It's a small hill, around 400 foot vertical, so I can ride for an hour, warm up by the fireplace, then head back out. Man made snow gets very natural feeling when it gets that cold, too.

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Good morning trend continue to move towards a wetter and more active period as we move into the second half of Oct.  Good to see all that snow cover in Canada and down the Rockies.

1603670400-zbSukrOZXjs.png

1603670400-d90uSEV0FJU.png

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^ LOVE that EPS snow mean. More members are showing a storm the week after next.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Good morning trend continue to move towards a wetter and more active period as we move into the second half of Oct.  Good to see all that snow cover in Canada and down the Rockies.

1603670400-zbSukrOZXjs.png

1603670400-d90uSEV0FJU.png

I recorded a solid 1/2" as my first snow of the season on 10-23-13 here in Marshall. This map would hint at a similar outcome. Looks like almost everyone except our most southern members have a shot verbatim. Like Niko said, we get nervous about too much snow before Turkey Day around here, but coatings and dustings aren't bad. I like the way the snowcover is advancing by latitude southward. Huge gaps in Canada and N Plains are a red flag from past experience. Like Nov of 2011 when I had scored more snow than Gaylord. Major red flag and we know how that ended.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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On 10/7/2020 at 3:53 PM, Tom said:

Winter of '13-'14 had virtually Zero blocking and the primary atmospheric driving force was the stout -EPO/-WPO.  We had a strong PV but it was more elongated and thus funneled arctic air into the U.S.  If we have another year with a strong PV and no blocking it won't go well but I got a good feeling we'll have it this year.  2 consecutive years of low solar, going into the 3rd year this year, should allow the delayed response towards a -AO/-NAO pattern.  I read once somewhere that it typically takes 2-3 years of low solar to see a response in the high lats during winter.  Another thing that has been mentioned is the record low sea ice near Scandinavia (eastern Arctic) which would allow HP to form in the Winter.

Yeah, this is why a -EPO seems to trump every other background contributor and really delivers for the CONUS.

Also, wasn't someone in here monitoring volcanism during this solar minimum? Based on all these endless sunny streaks, we could use a bit more of that, lol. Look at how much Pinatubo did to lower global temps. 

 

 

epo_neg_phase.png

harris-mann_historic_temp_chart.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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On 10/9/2020 at 3:37 PM, Niko said:

🤔

You know, in a way this guy's outlook is good in as much as he shows a large portion of the CONUS getting snow, even down south a lot like 13-14. But, while he says a lot of that is above average snow, his map for SWMI is definitely NOT above avg. He may not be covering the GL's micro-climate very accurately so I'll allow for that. Basically, it's kinda 13-14 ish but not as deep except E Nebraska was really left out of the snow party that winter so that region may actually be an improvement.

2013-14 CONUS Snow totals.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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5 hours ago, jaster220 said:

You know, in a way this guy's outlook is good in as much as he shows a large portion of the CONUS getting snow, even down south a lot like 13-14. But, while he says a lot of that is above average snow, his map for SWMI is definitely NOT above avg. He may not be covering the GL's micro-climate very accurately so I'll allow for that. Basically, it's kinda 13-14 ish but not as deep except E Nebraska was really left out of the snow party that winter so that region may actually be an improvement.

2013-14 CONUS Snow totals.png

AHHhhhhh, the good ol' 2013-14 Winter, where snowstorm after snowstorm was relentless. Bone-chilling temps and all time records were broken constantly. 🏂 Do I dare say a repeat for this upcoming Winter??!! ❄️

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Also @jaster220, the solar and volcanism are on a 18-24 month delay and have been rolling hard for 3 years. Problem is, they aren't news anymore. There's no money in scaring people anymore/too much other stuff going on. My 2c...

Whats coming isn't warm. Never was going to be and cooling episodes don't just drop slowly, they crash.

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