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2020-21 Autumn & Winter Discussion


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8 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

@jaster220, its a '13-14 blended with a 2010, imo. I think that's solid. Transient Niña riding with less suppression and more moisture return to the North unlike 13-14.

Classic Nina has the OHV wet, and 13-14 was historic snowfall (tho not sure where we ended up for overall moisture but it certainly wasn't BN). I'm a little lost on the bolded part. Are you speaking of the Plains region when you said "North"?

La-Nina-Pattern.jpg

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I was able to shoot a few hours north to the Starvation Lake area on my day off. It's a tad early even for NCMI but I was hopeful things might be running ahead of schedule there like downstate. Not su

Hope all are well. Those who know me know I post little during the warm season, especially with the virtually non-existent tornado season in this era. Gimme an 07-08 Nina repeat and I'd be a very happ

Our little airport here in Marshall sits on a bit of a plateau and still hit 32F last Saturday morning. I'm pretty confident that low-lying areas were sub-freezing. I've been here 18 years now and can

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7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Classic Nina has the OHV wet, and 13-14 was historic snowfall (tho not sure where we ended up for overall moisture but it certainly wasn't BN). I'm a little lost on the bolded part. Are you speaking of the Plains region when you said "North"?

La-Nina-Pattern.jpg

There were large sections of the US that saw overall less moisture while actually seeing more snow and or vice versa.

PV intrusions like 2013 always suppress moisture return. Always and or "cap and trap" the lows over the central US until the energy shears out and becomes garbage. I still say 2013 was a fluke for me, no matter how spectacular because it took so many mixed type storms to get me there. What was truly amazing was the violence in a winter thunderstorm on that big of a thermal gradient. It was a very exciting winter and one of my favorites but very different.

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39 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

There were large sections of the US that saw overall less moisture while actually seeing more snow and or vice versa.

PV intrusions like 2013 always suppress moisture return. Always and or "cap and trap" the lows over the central US until the energy shears out and becomes garbage. I still say 2013 was a fluke for me, no matter how spectacular because it took so many mixed type storms to get me there. What was truly amazing was the violence in a winter thunderstorm on that big of a thermal gradient. It was a very exciting winter and one of my favorites but very different.

Gotcha. I've been thinking about how long it has been since the Lwr Lakes has seen an actual bombing storm. Oh, we've scored some really nice great Big Dogs, don't get me wrong. But the classic "comma head" systems have been MIA aside from lucky Chicago and extreme SE Wisco that got rocked by GHD-1. Even that was already a deep SLP down south tho iirc. I'm remembering the 70s/80s/90s when storms like the Dec '87 gravity wave event roared into the Mitt dropping to 28.94" hg. That kind of stuff just doesn't happen these days. We get the moisture over-running the cold air dome scenario, but not the clash of warm/cold air masses known in times past. Sure would be great to experience one of those this winter.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Gotcha. I've been thinking about how long it has been since the Lwr Lakes has seen an actual bombing storm. Oh, we've scored some really nice great Big Dogs, don't get me wrong. But the classic "comma head" systems have been MIA aside from lucky Chicago and extreme SE Wisco that got rocked by GHD-1. Even that was already a deep SLP down south tho iirc. I'm remembering the 70s/80s/90s when storms like the Dec '87 gravity wave event roared into the Mitt dropping to 28.94" hg. That kind of stuff just doesn't happen these days. We get the moisture over-running the cold air dome scenario, but not the clash of warm/cold air masses known in times past. Sure would be great to experience one of those this winter.

Yes sir. This is true. They've all been off the east coast all the way from the late 80s to a couple years ago. The late 70s had some bombs over land and the great lakes.

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1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Yes sir. This is true. They've all been off the east coast all the way from the late 80s to a couple years ago. The late 70s had some bombs over land and the great lakes.

Here you go amigo. I'll be stoked for you if anything like 10-11 plays out down your way.

 

Oct 10th JB Tweet.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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@Tom

Have you seen any updates from WxBell on the winter? Apparently others have taken notice..

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So your initial winter weather forecast is trash???? I mean u had philly 3 to 5 degrees above normal now 30 days later its going to be frigid????

 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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13-14, when a 384 hr snowfall map could be trusted. I say that only slightly tongue-in-cheek.

Map call for period = approx. 20"

Actual recorded snow in mby for period = 19.9"

 

20140131 0z GFS 384hr Snowfall.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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58 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Here you go amigo. I'll be stoked for you if anything like 10-11 plays out down your way.

 

Oct 10th JB Tweet.PNG

Some have said it's possibly a blend of 10-11 and 13-14. Now that'd be interesting.

When you're in the highest range of the weenie/clownage maps, yet it's legit. Now that's #FUN

One of my best (tho grainy as h*ll) pic's from that winter. Evening of Jan 6th, Approx 22" depth, -16F/-41F WC. And oh btw, I took that standing in my garage looking down my driveway. That's as far as I could get my car in after work, then I dug to it and unburied it. As you can see, I can only pile snow so deep against my house and it falls back down, so a lot goes the other side. The highest I measured that bank later on in Feb at the crown of winter, it was 57" high and getting difficult just to toss another shovel full on top. That was the year I really missed my blower!

 

20140104 12z NAM Snfall-2.jpg

Driveway Jan 6, 2014.jpg

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Some have said it's possibly a blend of 10-11 and 13-14. Now that'd be interesting.

When you're in the highest range of the weenie/clownage maps, yet it's legit. Now that's #FUN

One of my best (tho grainy as h*ll) pic's from that winter. Evening of Jan 6th, Approx 22" depth, -16F/-41F WC. And oh btw, I took that standing in my garage looking down my driveway. That's as far as I could get my car in after work, then I dug to it and unburied it. As you can see, I can only pile snow so deep against my house and it falls back down, so a lot goes the other side. The highest I measured that bank later on in Feb at the crown of winter, it was 57" high and getting difficult just to toss another shovel full on top. That was the year I really missed my blower!

 

20140104 12z NAM Snfall-2.jpg

Driveway Jan 6, 2014.jpg

That pic brings back good memories of walking through "tunnels" throughout the neighborhood and walking on the sound of "crunchy" snow from the frigid temps.  I recall the snow banks so high that on every corner you had to really STOP at every side street corner bc you couldn't see around the banks if cars were coming.  Gosh, it seems like ages since we had a banner Winter.  A lot of members just to our west and north had a coupe good ones recently and I think its time nature balances it out this season.  Whadya say??

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5 hours ago, jaster220 said:

@Tom

Have you seen any updates from WxBell on the winter? Apparently others have taken notice..

 

I made a comment about this a bit ago where I'd thought he be making adjustments to his very warm outlook for the eastern CONUS and he did just that.  He's even considering making more adjustments once we get towards end of this month.  I think he's being cautiously optimistic about the cold signals showing up but also trying hard not to jump on the cold train just yet.

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6 hours ago, jaster220 said:

@Tom

Have you seen any updates from WxBell on the winter? Apparently others have taken notice..

 

I saw this graphic Joe D' Aleo posted on WxBell which shows the comparisons between the IRI multi-ensemble and his Pioneer Model.  Pretty good agreement at this stage.  I will say, his model inputs over 20+ variables and does a good job "seeing" cold and notice the blocking across Greenland and N/NE Canada.  I like the trends in recent weeks.  BTW, this IRI model updates tomorrow I believe so I'll post maps when they come in.

 

 

7.png

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The JMA seasonal came in a couple days ago and sorta took a step back for December while November looks like it pretty much stayed the course.  January appears to be when some real frigid air begins to pool in Canada as the model sorta teases the lower 48.

November...temp/precip patterns below show near normal in the SE with AN across the west/sw/plains/upper mw/mw...contradicting with the CFSv2.

 

Y202010.D0800_gl2.png

 

Y202010.D0800_gl0.png

 

 

December...temp/precip patterns look similar to November...

Y202010.D0800_gl2.png

 

Y202010.D0800_gl0.png

 

 

January...temp/precip cooler and wetter overall, esp the northern half of the Sub...cold pool lurking in Western Canada...also looks like a Phase 3 MJO pattern...

 

Y202010.D0800_gl2.png

 

 

Y202010.D0800_gl0.png

 

 

Finally, the La Nina trending colder and more widespread colder anomalies...

 

Y202010.D0800_gls.png

1.png

2.png

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For what it is worth Paul Pastelol at Accuweather had now posted as his (their) analog years (winters) for the upcoming winter season.  The years he is using are 2016/17. 2005/06. 1983/84. 1985/86. 1995/96 and 2010/11. In looking at the listed past winters well all I can say is I guess no matter how this winter turns out one of the above could fit. 

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Tom, I see a very strong storm is forcasted to be moving into the Bearing Sea.  Could that impact our weather to start Nov?  I noticed both the Euro Weeklies and the GEFS extended are picking up on a large system around the 2nd or 3rd of Nov.

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

I made a comment about this a bit ago where I'd thought he be making adjustments to his very warm outlook for the eastern CONUS and he did just that.  He's even considering making more adjustments once we get towards end of this month.  I think he's being cautiously optimistic about the cold signals showing up but also trying hard not to jump on the cold train just yet.

I tried to google their pre-season forecast and didn't come up with this year's maps from August that you had posted some time earlier. I thought that before they would have them on their site home page for free but I don't see it there either. Is it now behind the "pay wall" do you know?

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Tom, I see a very strong storm is forcasted to be moving into the Bearing Sea.  Could that impact our weather to start Nov?  I noticed both the Euro Weeklies and the GEFS extended are picking up on a large system around the 2nd or 3rd of Nov.

I'll have to dig into this later on...

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17 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I tried to google their pre-season forecast and didn't come up with this year's maps from August that you had posted some time earlier. I thought that before they would have them on their site home page for free but I don't see it there either. Is it now behind the "pay wall" do you know?

Their old forecast is behind the pay wall at this time...

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10 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Some have said it's possibly a blend of 10-11 and 13-14. Now that'd be interesting.

When you're in the highest range of the weenie/clownage maps, yet it's legit. Now that's #FUN

One of my best (tho grainy as h*ll) pic's from that winter. Evening of Jan 6th, Approx 22" depth, -16F/-41F WC. And oh btw, I took that standing in my garage looking down my driveway. That's as far as I could get my car in after work, then I dug to it and unburied it. As you can see, I can only pile snow so deep against my house and it falls back down, so a lot goes the other side. The highest I measured that bank later on in Feb at the crown of winter, it was 57" high and getting difficult just to toss another shovel full on top. That was the year I really missed my blower!

 

20140104 12z NAM Snfall-2.jpg

Driveway Jan 6, 2014.jpg

I just got the chills looking at this pic.....wow, that is a lotta snow my friend and a heck of a work-out as well.❄️

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22 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Here you go amigo. I'll be stoked for you if anything like 10-11 plays out down your way.

 

Oct 10th JB Tweet.PNG

Looking at these beautiful storms popping up on the models has 2010 written all over it. 2010 was from October thru March 25 2011, an absolute stunner.

Either way, since the summer AO dump, I'd agree, all signals point to the ferocity of winter, also an out-of-season tornado season is brewing. Its going to be a very long winter, if you want my opinion in stone today. Not just some snowfall numbers, etc.. Talking 2000 or 2010, 2013 cold stuff.

Snowed 6 inches in November 2000 here. I remember walking out of work a month after starting my first job and getting snowed there and having to wait on my Dad because I couldn't drive on it yet. It was a beauty. I'm excited and full of some great memories today.

Something about these zero years....

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The Weather Channel has released their winter outlook.  They are forecasting a warm to very warm November for much of the country, too.

wsi_djf_winter_1013.jpg?crop=16:9&width=

wsi_dec_1013_0.jpg?crop=16:9&width=980&f

wsi_jan_1013_0.jpg?crop=16:9&width=980&f

wsi_feb_1013.jpg?crop=16:9&width=980&for

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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On 10/14/2020 at 5:04 AM, westMJim said:

For what it is worth Paul Pastelol at Accuweather had now posted as his (their) analog years (winters) for the upcoming winter season.  The years he is using are 2016/17. 2005/06. 1983/84. 1985/86. 1995/96 and 2010/11. In looking at the listed past winters well all I can say is I guess no matter how this winter turns out one of the above could fit. 

Thanks for sharing. Where was it posted?

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The guy that likes to use woolly worms 🐛 as one way of seeing what the winter will be like said he only had two worms so far. Usually he sees many more and he mentioned that winters are usually on the mild side when there are lower numbers of those worms. So IDK, I guess we’ll see. I don’t know if those worms are good winter forecasters anyway! But I can verify that there aren’t (haven’t seen many) nearly as many of those woolly bears around this fall compared to last fall and a normal fall. 

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1 hour ago, Sparky said:

The guy that likes to use woolly worms 🐛 as one way of seeing what the winter will be like said he only had two worms so far. Usually he sees many more and he mentioned that winters are usually on the mild side when there are lower numbers of those worms. So IDK, I guess we’ll see. I don’t know if those worms are good winter forecasters anyway! But I can verify that there aren’t (haven’t seen many) nearly as many of those woolly bears around this fall compared to last fall and a normal fall. 

The one I saw in my back yard had black ends and a very dark almost black middle. Normally the two black ends indicate harsh early and late winter. I've seen them before with a very light brown middle meaning mild heart of winter (which this area has had a lot of lately. Tbh, since paying attention to this prognostication bug, I can't remember seeing such a dark brown middle indicating a mostly cold middle of winter. Not quite the solid black coloring seen in 2013 but close. Will be a good test of the theory.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I've seen a TON of wooly worms here over the past couple of weeks.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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On 10/14/2020 at 7:04 AM, westMJim said:

For what it is worth Paul Pastelol at Accuweather had now posted as his (their) analog years (winters) for the upcoming winter season.  The years he is using are 2016/17. 2005/06. 1983/84. 1985/86. 1995/96 and 2010/11. In looking at the listed past winters well all I can say is I guess no matter how this winter turns out one of the above could fit. 

Just saw this. Lol. So what he's saying is, something and some weather is going to happen. Pretty much gonna nail it.

Those years have as much in common as a cat, dog, bird, fish and a lizard. 

"Well crap. They're all animals."

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Moved this here, and expanded on it fwiw.

I am also waiting to see if a wound-up system happens in Nov, which historically has been a great sign for our region in La Nina years. Here's a list for the Lwr. Lakes:

How do the great November storms correlate with La Nina ENSO?

Nov 1950 (Great Appalachian Storm): La Nina

Nov 1966 (985 mb): possibly neutral

Nov 1975 (Edmund Fitzgerald): La Nina

Nov 1998 (Fitzgerald storm 2.0): La Nina

Oct/Nov 2010 (Octo-bomb): La Nina

Nov 2013 (TOR outbreak but non-snowstorm): La Nina

4 out of 6 on that list featured a full-fledged blizzard the following winter!, and iirc the other 2 were pretty snowy winters as well, at least for certain parts of the Lakes. 

Edit- If you take into account the Nov '50 storm was itself a blizzard for a large portion hardest hit, you actually have a fabulous 5 of 6 years producing blizzards!

Edited by jaster220
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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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My local office's regional zoom-in and disco/forecast for our first year La Nina winter. I like it!

And IF the blocking ends up being a bit more dominant than they are calling for, this could certainly go bigger.

 

NWS Grand Rapids Winter Outlook 2020-21.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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@Tom

So, is this an east-based Nina? And were certain outlets expecting more of a west-based that would/could explain WxBell's early call to bottle the cold more NW?

 

ENSO State NDJ 20-21.PNG

East vs West based Nina.jpg

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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😀 Good stuff on this map per NWS-Boulder

 

NAMER La Nina wx.jpg

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

@Tom

So, is this an east-based Nino? And were certain outlets expecting more of a west-based that would/could explain WxBell's early call to bottle the cold more NW?

 

ENSO State NDJ 20-21.PNG

East vs West based Nina.jpg

I don't believe they were anticipating a west-based La Nina.  And yes, this is certainly trending towards a moderate east-based La Nina.  In fact, the recent runs off the CFSv2 are categorically getting colder, esp during the heart of Winter right around the New Year.  Pretty wild stuff.

1.gif

 

 

2.gif

You can tell the modeling is on the right track based on the subsurface anomalies which showcase a divided PAC ocean and all the colder waters on the eastern side.

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

 

 

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Alright, alright, alright...I promised to post the latest run off the IRI-Multi Model ensemble and like last month, for comparisons and trend purposes, I'll show the current run and compare it with the previous run.

 

NDJ...cooler and wetter trends across the heartland and OHV while the southern tier and SW/W coast remains warm and dry...

NDJ21_NAm_tmp.gif

NDJ21_NAm_pcp.gif

vs previous run...

 

NDJ21_NAm_tmp.gif

NDJ21_NAm_pcp.gif

 

 

DJF...same trends continue and notice the warmth over the Arctic regions and Greenland...this is why I believe some of the climate models are not potentially seeing the Greenland Block in the longer range...

Current run...colder across the OHV/MW that may suggest a snowier pattern???

DJF21_NAm_tmp.gif

 

 

DJF21_NAm_pcp.gif

 

Previous run...

 

DJF21_NAm_tmp.gif

 

DJF21_NAm_pcp.gif

 

 

Finally, JFM where it seems like winters really hit hard mid/late in the season in recent years...

Current run...

JFM21_NAm_tmp.gif

 

JFM21_NAm_pcp.gif

 

 

Previous run...

 

JFM21_NAm_tmp.gif

 

JFM21_NAm_pcp.gif

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What say the Euro Weeklies from yesterday???  After a very cold finish to October, the pattern relaxes a bit during the opening of November through about the 15th or so allowing "Indian Summer Part 3"...possibly???  It does appear that the west coast ridge will try to poke east into the central Plains during this period but there remains a lot of Blocking over eastern Canada/Greenland that may negate any significant (more normal temps) warming over the eastern Sub. 

Moving forward, for the 3rd run in a row, the model is continuing to show the pattern flip to what we are experiencing now and that is a west coast ridge along with blocking over the top from the 15th onward.  Almost a perfect scenario because it would allow all of us to finish up any yard work that needs to be attended to during the opening days of November and then nature can lay down the snow right around the beginning of the holiday season.  Check out this Snow mean forecast and you can clearly see the suppression of the cold that comes later in November.  Hope to see this trend continue.

1.png

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

What say the Euro Weeklies from yesterday???  After a very cold finish to October, the pattern relaxes a bit during the opening of November through about the 15th or so allowing "Indian Summer Part 3"...possibly???  It does appear that the west coast ridge will try to poke east into the central Plains during this period but there remains a lot of Blocking over eastern Canada/Greenland that may negate any significant (more normal temps) warming over the eastern Sub. 

Moving forward, for the 3rd run in a row, the model is continuing to show the pattern flip to what we are experiencing now and that is a west coast ridge along with blocking over the top from the 15th onward.  Almost a perfect scenario because it would allow all of us to finish up any yard work that needs to be attended to during the opening days of November and then nature can lay down the snow right around the beginning of the holiday season.  Check out this Snow mean forecast and you can clearly see the suppression of the cold that comes later in November.  Hope to see this trend continue.

1.png

Thats still no snow to Dec 1 for me and what would be a western trough to get that much snow. 

I think November brings snow as far south as I-40 before Thanksgiving in NE Oklahoma so I have to disregard that map.

Guess I'm in disagreement. The pattern is already set in stone, imo.

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I think we're already in tropical suppression and halfway through subtropical and tropical retrogression is why I disagree. That trough isn't pulling back over AZ. More likely to bleed east as Oct indicates and as blocking relents. Its a huge error, isn't it? Or am I mistaken?

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Weatherbell

Preliminary winter outlook

December_2020_February_2021_Forecast.png

Updated winter outlook

December_2020_February_2021_Forecast_Upd

 

Preliminary snowfall outlook

Winter_2020_21_Snowfall_forecast.png

Updated snowfall outlook

Winter_2020_21_Snowfall_forecast_Update.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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17 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Ol Joe is more timid than his usual self, it seems, but I see where he's going here and I like it.

And that "update" was published back in September. Gotta figure the way things are developing, he may not be finished tweaking it.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Here's a detailed write-up by Ben Noll that goes into a lot of details for this upcoming winter season.  He focuses on the northeastern U.S., specifically Hudson Valley, but you can use this as guidance for your local region as well. Some of the analogs he's using are catching my attn as I'm sure they will for you also.  

https://bennollweather.substack.com/p/hudson-valley-2020-21-winter-outlook?r=6mogw&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter

 

His analog years...

 

https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-43

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

As the Northern Hemisphere plunges into Winter, both the Northern Hemisphere along with North America snow cover extent catapults in recent days.  

 

multisensor_4km_nh_snow_extent_by_year_g

 

multisensor_4km_na_snow_extent_by_year_g

Out-pacing just about every year in the pack at this point on the calendar, eh? (for N Amer). Too many lines of similar color to parse exact years like comparing 2013 for instance. Be nice if you could toggle certain years on/off for easy comparing.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Direct Weather's winter forecast.

@Niko- Looks like a sliver of SEMI gets into the "worst of winter" zone. Hoping that zone is back west a bit too, lol

 

 

Direct Weather 2020-21 winter.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Here's a detailed write-up by Ben Noll that goes into a lot of details for this upcoming winter season.  He focuses on the northeastern U.S., specifically Hudson Valley, but you can use this as guidance for your local region as well. Some of the analogs he's using are catching my attn as I'm sure they will for you also.  

https://bennollweather.substack.com/p/hudson-valley-2020-21-winter-outlook?r=6mogw&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter

 

His analog years...

 

https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-43

Wisconsin State Climatology office has 13-14, as above average, and 07-08 as the snowiest winter of all time with 08-09 with the snowiest December on record. 10-11 is a good one too though it's more backloaded.

17-18, and 99-00 were both below average. Those analog years are a good sign but they aren't a promise. What was happening in 17-18 and 99-00 to make these the same and why was the snowfall output so much lower in the Midwest? Looking at these analogs, at face value it looks like we're far more likely to do well with snow than not.

I'm getting quite excited, I did some epoxy repairs to my board and went out on the lake yesterday in the wind. Suffice to say there was probably 2-3 foot chop out there and I was on a little stand up jet ski, I got my butt handed to me, haha. I'm about ready for some snow, only three to six weeks left for snowboarding. Really need a hard shot of cold early in November to get temps below 28 for a few days so they can open up.

 

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