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2020-21 Autumn & Winter Discussion


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1 hour ago, gimmesnow said:

Wisconsin State Climatology office has 13-14, as above average, and 07-08 as the snowiest winter of all time with 08-09 with the snowiest December on record. 10-11 is a good one too though it's more backloaded.

17-18, and 99-00 were both below average. Those analog years are a good sign but they aren't a promise. What was happening in 17-18 and 99-00 to make these the same and why was the snowfall output so much lower in the Midwest? Looking at these analogs, at face value it looks like we're far more likely to do well with snow than not.

I'm getting quite excited, I did some epoxy repairs to my board and went out on the lake yesterday in the wind. Suffice to say there was probably 2-3 foot chop out there and I was on a little stand up jet ski, I got my butt handed to me, haha. I'm about ready for some snow, only three to six weeks left for snowboarding. Really need a hard shot of cold early in November to get temps below 28 for a few days so they can open up.

 

The short answer is "there are duds in every ENSO state". 99-00 was bad across the board iirc. 17-18 was actually AN but for a different region (i.e. mby and eastward were AN).

I certainly agree that our "odds" based on his analog list look promising. It is ofc, just an educated hunch and nothing's been following the analog lists lately, so we just won't know until we know. It could dud, or equally, it could over-perform.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I was able to shoot a few hours north to the Starvation Lake area on my day off. It's a tad early even for NCMI but I was hopeful things might be running ahead of schedule there like downstate. Not su

Never got this in sunlight but I thought these were neat pictures. In sunlight, that color looks like literal red fire.  

Some have said it's possibly a blend of 10-11 and 13-14. Now that'd be interesting. When you're in the highest range of the weenie/clownage maps, yet it's legit. Now that's #FUN One of my be

Posted Images

12 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Direct Weather's winter forecast.

@Niko- Looks like a sliver of SEMI gets into the "worst of winter" zone. Hoping that zone is back west a bit too, lol

 

 

Direct Weather 2020-21 winter.PNG

🤣....I know, its hilarious the way they painted my area right on the edge of that red color. Tbh though, I would not bet any money on this map, just yet, but I do hope it verifies, absolutely.

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19 hours ago, Tom said:

Here's a detailed write-up by Ben Noll that goes into a lot of details for this upcoming winter season.  He focuses on the northeastern U.S., specifically Hudson Valley, but you can use this as guidance for your local region as well. Some of the analogs he's using are catching my attn as I'm sure they will for you also.  

https://bennollweather.substack.com/p/hudson-valley-2020-21-winter-outlook?r=6mogw&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter

 

His analog years...

 

https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-43

Thanks Tom. I really enjoyed his write-up and his style/approach. I like his set of analogs too for the most part. But wow at those snow maps off the Euro/Ukie, how disappointing that would be. Basically a 3rd straight winter of blah for the Lwr Lakes/OHV. Seriously hoping that those are not taking into account blocking that we've seen develop often so far. Thoughts?

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Thanks Tom. I really enjoyed his write-up and his style/approach. I like his set of analogs too for the most part. But wow at those snow maps off the Euro/Ukie, how disappointing that would be. Basically a 3rd straight winter of blah for the Lwr Lakes/OHV. Seriously hoping that those are not taking into account blocking that we've seen develop often so far. Thoughts?

The scary thing about this is, both of these models have done well together in recent years, esp the Ukie which nailed the 500mb forecast last year and I think the year prior.  This year, however, I've seen how badly the models have done with the AO/NAO forecasts.  That's not to say they will bust again this year.  I just feel that how this pattern is setting up, while still early in the game, will pose a threat for high lat blocking in the winter months.  I'm sure there will be episodes where the blocking wanes when the PV strengthens or positions itself near Greenland.

For instance, the Euro op run below shows this transpiring later next week...this is when I believe we'll see exhibits of this LRC illustrate "cross polar flow".

1.png

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42 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I'm not an expert when it come to the MJO but I believe phases 8 and 1 are cold for the US which looks to be the direction it's heading.

GFS MJO index forecast phase diagram

Here are the November MJO temp composites....

 

MJO Temperature Composites and Significance for October- December period

 

The Euro seems to agree but not as amplified as the GFS...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

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Saw this tweet by Judah Cohen as he posted a chart comparing recent La Nina winters...

Quote

La Niña is thought to favor a mild #winter in the Eastern US but recent La Niñas feature many large #polarvortex disruptions which is often followed by severe winter weather not only in the Eastern US but elsewhere across the Hemisphere

1.jpg

 

I'm seeing signs that the QBO is heading out of the westerly phase and into the easterly phase by the end of the calendar year.  Could this aid in negating a chance of a warm winter?  I'm curious to see what the PV did back in 05/06 which is one of the analogs this season that ended up becoming a warm winter.  This season could be a lot different if the PV ends up being weaker.

 

 

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Brett Anderson came out with his 2020/21 winter guess. While his guess is for Canada for those of us living in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and the Dakotas  there is enough of a over lap that his guess get into our area.  His guess is pointing towards a warm winter with less snow for much of our area.  Here is his summery for the winter season.
“Overall, in terms of temperatures, the core of the Arctic air is expected to hang out across northern BC and the Yukon Territory, though there certainly can be brief spells of bitterly cold air through the Prairies and into eastern Canada. However, the winter as a whole is expected to be dominated by more mild spells from the Great Lakes to Atlantic Canada.
The lack of sustained cold is expected to reduce the number of lake-effect snowfall events downwind of the Great Lakes this season. Ice cover on the Great Lakes is also expected to average below normal this season.”


Remember that is Brett Anderson’s guess and not mine.

 

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On 10/20/2020 at 5:08 AM, Tom said:

Saw this tweet by Judah Cohen as he posted a chart comparing recent La Nina winters...

1.jpg

 

I'm seeing signs that the QBO is heading out of the westerly phase and into the easterly phase by the end of the calendar year.  Could this aid in negating a chance of a warm winter?  I'm curious to see what the PV did back in 05/06 which is one of the analogs this season that ended up becoming a warm winter.  This season could be a lot different if the PV ends up being weaker.

 

 

I remember we had thunderstorms in the beginning and at the end of January 2006 and plenty of warm temps.

IIRC, the soils that winter around here never really froze hard enough and people could continue with dirt work like tiling, etc!

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On 10/18/2020 at 10:25 AM, jaster220 said:

Direct Weather's winter forecast.

@Niko- Looks like a sliver of SEMI gets into the "worst of winter" zone. Hoping that zone is back west a bit too, lol

 

 

Direct Weather 2020-21 winter.PNG

 

Looks like Ma Nature heard your request. It now even covers Toms pl and Clintons as well.❄️

 

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11 hours ago, Niko said:

 

Looks like Ma Nature heard your request. It now even covers Toms pl and Clintons as well.❄️

 

Now that makes much more sense, lol. Seriously tho, when's the last time you can remember the map I posted actually happening? Like, never. It crossed too many wx zones in all the wrong and non-typical ways to make sense. I think this new one actually welcomes Clinton into the "WOW" zone as well.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Here's a chart that will define the reason why I believe the models are right about the Scandinavian Block playing an important role this Winter.  Sadly, Siberian Ice extent is shattering record lows in 2020...open waters in this region during the winter will aid in high lat blocking.

 

1.jpg

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7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Now that makes much more sense, lol. Seriously tho, when's the last time you can remember the map I posted actually happening? Like, never. It crossed too many wx zones in all the wrong and non-typical ways to make sense. I think this new one actually welcomes Clinton into the "WOW" zone as well.

Winter 2013-14 all over again........I can see it!🌨️

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7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Now that makes much more sense, lol. Seriously tho, when's the last time you can remember the map I posted actually happening? Like, never. It crossed too many wx zones in all the wrong and non-typical ways to make sense. I think this new one actually welcomes Clinton into the "WOW" zone as well.

LOL this NW flow won't allow this to happen for me.  Lots of time for a pattern change sill.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

LOL this NW flow won't allow this to happen for me.  Lots of time for a pattern change still.

To me, the WoW zone is the region where S Stream systems criss-cross with the primary Clipper track. What he's showing would be the S Stream hit zone ala GHD-1 bliz and to some extent the PV bliz of 13-14. So for the WoW zone to extend that far SW to include W MO, those would have to out-number the clippers and I've never seen that kind of season tbh. I do 100% agree that the most likely region for big systems is just SE of where the arctic air masses come down. This should be fun if we can hold onto what's underway right now. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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During the most crucial time of year, when the LRC is developing, the MJO is forecast to rotate through the colder phases of 7/8/1 as we close out October and head into November.  Question is, does it continue rotating through the warmer phases later in Nov or does it fall into the "null" phase???  What do we know so far???  We do know that there will be a SER influence this cold season as we've had a persistent -PNA pattern.  Is there a part of the LRC where the SER is not present??

 

The Euro Weeklies suggest November to have a general +PNA pattern...

4.png

 

Ensemble Mean PNA Outlooks

 

MJO Forecasts show the ensembles heading towards 7/8 and maybe phase 1...amplification, or rather, the influence doesn't seem to be that great.  There is also JMA support that we indeed head into phases 7/8/1 and 2 as we head into Nov.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

CFSO_phase_small.gif

 

The Euro Weeklies of late, have been advertising a steady trend for the second half of November.  The past several runs it has been showing a more winter-like pattern for a lot of the Sub.  What about the Thanksgiving holiday period??  Well, this 500mb pattern is a great way to start off the holidays.  

1.png

 

What about SNOW potential???

3.png

 

The next 45 days...

2.png

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Never got this in sunlight but I thought these were neat pictures. In sunlight, that color looks like literal red fire.

 

20201023_155106.jpg

20201023_155215.jpg

Nice pics....thanks for sharing them!

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46 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Can't help but think the Dec version of the pattern might go bigly!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

Yep. 24/12z Euro kept this suppressed over our way, while the 25/0z GFS is now the model showing decent rain shield into SMI.

20201025 0z GFS h120 Surf.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Can't help but think the Dec version of the pattern might go bigly!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

Go bigly..or go home baby!

Perhaps this will have it's day after all.

 

OH BBs.JPG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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This sure looks a lot like what we have going on now..

 

Winter 2013-14 Forecast Graphic-Geos.jpg

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The "gold std" of winters here in the Mitt

 

2013-14 CONUS AWSSI.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Yep. 24/12z Euro kept this suppressed over our way, while the 25/0z GFS is now the model showing decent rain shield into SMI.

20201025 0z GFS h120 Surf.png

I can't wait to see what happens with this, and we will want to store this in our memory because the models are struggling.

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15 hours ago, jaster220 said:

The "gold std" of winters here in the Mitt

 

2013-14 CONUS AWSSI.png

"Record Extreme", that's a winter that would even make the late great "The Extreme", Bill Paxton proud.

What an amazing winter that was for you folks. I forget that it was the best one ever for you.

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16 hours ago, jaster220 said:

The "gold std" of winters here in the Mitt

 

2013-14 CONUS AWSSI.png

This shows as "extreme" at my location (TOP KS). I don't remember it being extreme but it was a better snow lover's winter than any of the ones we have had since. I do know February 4, 2014 was the last time we had a snowfall of greater than 6". (I think it was around 13".) I need to double check, but we have had very, very few 3" or over events since then as well. The cupboard has been pretty bare the last six going on seven years here.

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >= 3":  none                       Season total: 0.6"
  • 19-20 snowfalls >= 3":  Dec 15/16: 4.5"      Season total: 11.7" (66% of normal 17.8")
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Direct weather is garbage. Just hopping in to say that. Just some idiot with a youtube channel, trust me. I've met him.

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2019-20 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 28.6"

(Oct. 29: 2.5") (Oct. 31: 4.7") (Nov 11. 4.1") (Dec. 9: 0.3") (Dec. 11: 1.3") (Jan. 3: 1.0") (Jan. 11: 2.1") (Jan. 17: 4.7") (Jan. 23: 3.1") (Jan 24. 3.6") (Jan. 28: 0.7") (Feb. 13: 1.5")

 

 

Formerly NWLinn

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35 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Direct weather is garbage. Just hopping in to say that. Just some idiot with a youtube channel, trust me. I've met him.

News flash! I presume everyone knows that him/Craig/JB/add name's maps are for entertainment purposes only. But geez, thx for looking out for us. Guess I'll cancel any plans for winter activities now

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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On 10/18/2020 at 12:02 PM, jaster220 said:

 

I certainly agree that our "odds" based on his analog list look promising. It is ofc, just an educated hunch and nothing's been following the analog lists lately, so we just won't know until we know. It could dud, or equally, it could over-perform.

I award you with the most sensible post award.

I don't want it to turn out this way but the way everyone seems so giddy about the current enso state and analogs for a cold and snowy winter reminds me of 2011-12. Everything was supposedly lined up perfect that year....and the result was utterly terrible.

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On 10/25/2020 at 4:58 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

"Record Extreme", that's a winter that would even make the late great "The Extreme", Bill Paxton proud.

What an amazing winter that was for you folks. I forget that it was the best one ever for you.

It was truly a Winter to remember! I was getting snowstorm after snowstorm every other day and breaking all sorts of records. I think Jaster approached 100" or so, meanwhile, I received 95" give or take.

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32 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

I award you with the most sensible post award.

I don't want it to turn out this way but the way everyone seems so giddy about the current enso state and analogs for a cold and snowy winter reminds me of 2011-12. Everything was supposedly lined up perfect that year....and the result was utterly terrible.

So true wrt 11-12!

Old school logic had me questioning that in my gut when I saw those outlooks. Chicago had four straight 50"+ seasons which had NEVER happened (I share their zone) so that right there was a red flag on the snowy outlooks, not to mention simple odds were beyond long for a 5th. Ofc the snow-monger in me wrestled with my winter spidey sense hoping to win. Autumn 2011 was polar opposite tho. Mostly warmth with occasional chill or random snow. I give this year much better chance of coming through for us. Main question is longevity imho

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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22 hours ago, jaster220 said:

News flash! I presume everyone knows that him/Craig/JB/add name's maps are for entertainment purposes only. But geez, thx for looking out for us. Guess I'll cancel any plans for winter activities now

I feel strongly about it precisely because I've met him. Dude is an airhead lol

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2019-20 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 28.6"

(Oct. 29: 2.5") (Oct. 31: 4.7") (Nov 11. 4.1") (Dec. 9: 0.3") (Dec. 11: 1.3") (Jan. 3: 1.0") (Jan. 11: 2.1") (Jan. 17: 4.7") (Jan. 23: 3.1") (Jan 24. 3.6") (Jan. 28: 0.7") (Feb. 13: 1.5")

 

 

Formerly NWLinn

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On 10/26/2020 at 6:59 PM, Beltrami Island said:

I award you with the most sensible post award.

I don't want it to turn out this way but the way everyone seems so giddy about the current enso state and analogs for a cold and snowy winter reminds me of 2011-12. Everything was supposedly lined up perfect that year....and the result was utterly terrible.

I hated that winter for so many reasons I can't state them correctly. That one and 2012-13 both. 

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On 10/26/2020 at 6:59 PM, Beltrami Island said:

I award you with the most sensible post award.

I don't want it to turn out this way but the way everyone seems so giddy about the current enso state and analogs for a cold and snowy winter reminds me of 2011-12. Everything was supposedly lined up perfect that year....and the result was utterly terrible.

I remember that year quite well and if I recall correctly, that season set up with a very powerful GOA Low in Oct/Nov that pumped a long term long wave ridge throughout the central CONUS.  The waters also cooled off dramatically in both Oct/Nov in the NE PAC and set the stage for an incredibly cold/snowy Alaskan winter.  I remember reading stories of houses buried in Anchorage and Fairbanks.  It was a winter for the record books up there which is a nail in the coffin for any cold in the lower 48.  

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

I remember that year quite well and if I recall correctly, that season set up with a very powerful GOA Low in Oct/Nov that pumped a long term long wave ridge throughout the central CONUS.  The waters also cooled off dramatically in both Oct/Nov in the NE PAC and set the stage for an incredibly cold/snowy Alaskan winter.  I remember reading stories of houses buried in Anchorage and Fairbanks.  It was a winter for the record books up there which is a nail in the coffin for any cold in the lower 48.  

Yes that setup seemed to obliterate any ENSO signal and was the opposite of the ridge that made 2013-14 so memorable for the eastern half of the CONUS. 

I don't think Fairbanks did to well that winter from snow perspective.  They were on the wrong side of the Alaska Range and had many Chinook patterns with the southerly flow.  Anchorage, Valdez, Juneau, and the coastal areas did get huge snows though. 

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1 hour ago, Beltrami Island said:

Yes that setup seemed to obliterate any ENSO signal and was the opposite of the ridge that made 2013-14 so memorable for the eastern half of the CONUS. 

I don't think Fairbanks did to well that winter from snow perspective.  They were on the wrong side of the Alaska Range and had many Chinook patterns with the southerly flow.  Anchorage, Valdez, Juneau, and the coastal areas did get huge snows though. 

This season I’m seeing similarities to that ‘13-‘14 season in the NE PAC.  Models have been busting in this region (EPO) and the warm waters continue to grow which is aiding in more ridging.  I’m curious to see the Nov outlooks coming out next week, esp the Euro seasonal.

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9 hours ago, Tom said:

This season I’m seeing similarities to that ‘13-‘14 season in the NE PAC.  Models have been busting in this region (EPO) and the warm waters continue to grow which is aiding in more ridging.  I’m curious to see the Nov outlooks coming out next week, esp the Euro seasonal.

If this "blob" episode, or we could call it the double blob now, touches what the downstream weather did from December 2013-March 2015, there's going to be some insane weather for the next 3 years.

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To add to @OKwx2k4post above, the strongest clue I'm seeing for this Winter season that is ongoing across the N PAC is the big shifting around of the warm pools since the 1st week of October.  Check out the trends during the past 4 weeks...

Oct 6th...

Y202010.D0712_gls.png

Oct 13th...

Y202010.D1412_gls.png

Oct 20th...

Y202010.D2112_gls.png

Oct 27th...

Y202010.D2812_gls.png

 

The expansive coverage of warm waters in the NE PAC has grown considerably.  The warm waters near the Sea of Oshkosh, IMO, is also another good clue that this will promote ridging which should also correlate to a western NAMER Ridge.  Could the climate models be late to the party in sniffing this pattern??

 

Well, it appears the CFSv2 is doing just that for November....last 10 runs showing a clear trend...look also near eastern Siberia where a trough is replaced by a ridge, then a trough underneath which would place Japan (EAR Theory) in a stormy/cold pattern that correlates for the eastern CONUS trough.  I'm starting to wonder if after this upcoming warm period, we see a battle zone for the central CONUS during the middle part of November and then the flood gates open up to Full Blown - Winter around the holidays.

1.gif

 

 

The JMA Weeklies below show the warm up next week and active pattern...

Week 2...more tropical trouble possible along the EC/GOM...

Y202010.D2812_gl2.png

 

Y202010.D2812_gl0.png

 

Week 3-4...

 

Y202010.D2812_gl2.png

Y202010.D2812_gl0.png

 

The Blocking keeps holding strong into late November over in Eurasia across the pole into eastern North America/Greenland...I like this look for late month...

 

5.png

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13 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

If this "blob" episode, or we could call it the double blob now, touches what the downstream weather did from December 2013-March 2015, there's going to be some insane weather for the next 3 years.

Insanely sucky for California. I want snow but I also don't want to see California decimated by fires.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.7"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Over the past several years, the North Hemisphere snow mass index has been running above normal and this year's pace looks to keep that trend.  Iirc, the '17-'18 season held one of the highest readings and that year is being used as an analog.  Could we be establishing a new decadal trend???  Remember, Al Gore informed us that snow was supposed to be a thing of the past...

 

fmi_swe_tracker.jpg

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

Over the past several years, the North Hemisphere snow mass index has been running above normal and this year's pace looks to keep that trend.  Iirc, the '17-'18 season held one of the highest readings and that year is being used as an analog.  Could we be establishing a new decadal trend???  Remember, Al Gore informed us that snow was supposed to be a thing of the past...

 

fmi_swe_tracker.jpg

Al Gore predicted there'd be no snow falling on the planet in the year 2020?

Mmmm, I don't seem to remember that one.... Also not sure why you guys refer to Gore so much as if he's THE source of climate change information. I prefer to listen to what the actual majority of the scientific community and their current message says vs whatever Gore was claiming over a decade ago.

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7 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Al Gore predicted there'd be no snow falling on the planet in the year 2020?

Mmmm, I don't seem to remember that one.... Also not sure why you guys refer to Gore so much as if he's THE source of climate change information. I prefer to listen to what the actual majority of the scientific community and their current message says vs whatever Gore was claiming over a decade ago.

Anyone who claims it will not snow on the Midwest in any of our lifetimes (I’m 21) is insane 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

2020-21: 2.9" (so far)

 

Average: 25.9"

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1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Al Gore predicted there'd be no snow falling on the planet in the year 2020?

Mmmm, I don't seem to remember that one.... Also not sure why you guys refer to Gore so much as if he's THE source of climate change information. I prefer to listen to what the actual majority of the scientific community and their current message says vs whatever Gore was claiming over a decade ago.

I don't want to be rude, but are you not that old? People who were old in the early 2000s remember things like promises Florida being mostly underwater now and the ice caps being gone. You can argue that we fixed it, but China still has a status of a developing nation and they are polluting more than the USA right now, and the people who are so concerned about the environment are going to let them continue to pollute. Actually China already pumps out almost twice as much CO2 as the USA, yet the scientists are going to let this continue for at least 10 years as China won't have to worry about the strict environmental regulations that a "developed" nation has to.

I think there are some serious problems with "science", we have undisbuted global warming because of CO2 yet China is allowed to dump more CO2 than anyone else, by a huge margin (https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/each-countrys-share-co2-emissions).

And they're going to let this go on for at least a decade? If global warming so so serious they would be stepping up to tell China to stop, not to let them continue like this as a developing country. Sorry if this against the rules, I know this stuff is a pretty controversial topic.

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The current Nina is the strongest since 2010-11.

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2019-20 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 28.6"

(Oct. 29: 2.5") (Oct. 31: 4.7") (Nov 11. 4.1") (Dec. 9: 0.3") (Dec. 11: 1.3") (Jan. 3: 1.0") (Jan. 11: 2.1") (Jan. 17: 4.7") (Jan. 23: 3.1") (Jan 24. 3.6") (Jan. 28: 0.7") (Feb. 13: 1.5")

 

 

Formerly NWLinn

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15 hours ago, Tom said:

Over the past several years, the North Hemisphere snow mass index has been running above normal and this year's pace looks to keep that trend.  Iirc, the '17-'18 season held one of the highest readings and that year is being used as an analog.  Could we be establishing a new decadal trend???  Remember, Al Gore informed us that snow was supposed to be a thing of the past...

 

fmi_swe_tracker.jpg

There's a great deal of attention being placed on the warm and bare ocean up north vs the massive displacements of cold and snow due to PV displacements and massive heat transfer from equator to pole this year.

I have a theory,....

Before the Northern hemisphere can recover in terms of ice, you have to insulate the region from warm intrusions. Best way to do that, snow all around it first so the air modifies before it warms the ocean surface and you have ice growth/retention + cold air modification. Albedo and all the other stuff is a given. In other words, very radical stuff.

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I noticed WxBell's analog list for this 1st year Nina included 73-74. In looking at that winter for snowstorms, I was surprised to see that there was a Big Dog storm just (4) days before Christmas that season. Growing up not too far east of KFNT (Flint, MI) indeed their records indicate a 9.5" total that took the depth to a very surprising 13" (T-6" was the Christmas Day norm during my youth). So why didn't I remember a Christmas day with such an impressive snow cover? I was 9 yrs old and certainly should easily stand out in my memory. Digging a little deeper revealed that the old "Nina volatility" was to blame. Similar to 07-08 when snow was plentiful, but melted just as fast as it came. The 8" the morning of 12-25-73 was the deepest of my youth there, but a high of 48F reduced the depth to a tragic 1" by the next morning! Christmas '73 must've been a forgettable slop-fest outside as I enjoyed inside whatever Santa had left under the tree that morning. Even more disgusting was LaFayette, IN which had scored 17.4" and a depth of 19" also found themselves with 1" on the morning of "Boxing Day". Beware the "come and go" nature of the Nina's. Not to mention that in all my snowstorm hunting, snow cover retention seems to be the most difficult winter facet to achieve in this region. I would say, that any time SMI can get a solid 8 weeks of cold and enduring ground cover, that's a memorable season. (outside of the LES belts anyway). Snow did return that January and a snapshot on 1-12-74 shows a nice swath of decent depth across this sub.

 

 

 

1973-12-21 Snow Depth.PNG

1973-12-25 Snow Depth.PNG

1974-01-12 Snow Depth.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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