Jump to content

Winter & Spring 2021 Discussion


Niko

Recommended Posts

The JAMSTEC has come in with new data suggesting a mixed signal for the SON period if you digest the 3 different model runs.  The common denominator, however, is moisture.

 

To save time, I included the mean precip for the SON period as well as the SST forecast...

 

 

1.gif

2.gif

3.gif

4.gif

5.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is the latest Euro Seasonal...it is also quite dry...if you look closely at the modeled temps, it is showing very subtle signs of a trough in the East.  If you take away the warm bias in the modeling, IMO, it suggests to look for more seasonal temps and even BN in places east of the Rockies.

1.png

2.png

3.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's interesting to see both the CFSv2 and Euro weeklies agreeing on an amplified North American blocking pattern with massive ridges setting up off both coasts and suggesting a large area of seasonal to cooler than normal temps for those east of the Rockies.  This would certainly flip the pattern we have seen in recent years for the month of September.

 

Both models are also seeing a significant cool shot end of September along with multiple rounds of cold fronts during the entire month.  I got a feeling it's going to get rather volatile as Autumn settles a lot earlier this year than in recent years.  At the moment, it does not appear that "Endlesss Summer" will have legs this season.

1.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's interesting to see both the CFSv2 and Euro weeklies agreeing on an amplified North American blocking pattern with massive ridges setting up off both coasts and suggesting a large area of seasonal to cooler than normal temps for those east of the Rockies. This would certainly flip the pattern we have seen in recent years for the month of September.

 

Both models are also seeing a significant cool shot end of September along with multiple rounds of cold fronts during the entire month. I got a feeling it's going to get rather volatile as Autumn settles a lot earlier this year than in recent years. At the moment, it does not appear that "Endlesss Summer" will will have legs this season.

Yeah. I have no disagreements here. All hints point to a violent but beautiful autumn here.

 

Here's to the last big week or so of major summer heat. Good riddance.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here are a couple models showing the 500mb pattern from Nov-Jan...last year, the UKIE nailed the winter forecast and showed zero blocking near Greenland.  This year, however, it is does show some blocking at this range and the Euro has absolutely ZERO blocking in the Arctic regions and Greenland (Strong Polar Vortex).  We really need to see the UKIE and Euro trend towards more blocking in the months ahead to feel any confidence of this transpiring.  The other big clue is the nasty ridge near the NE PAC.  The Euro is showing it south of the Bearing Sea which is a strong signal for a large scale SER.  Meanwhile, the UKIE is a bit farther east which correlates to a less amped SER but still a threat.  Nonetheless, I highly believe the SER will be a big player but to what extent is up in the air.

1.png

2.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A quick ENSO update and one will notice an obvious subsurface cooling trend which will allow the central/eastern based La Nina to grow over the coming weeks.

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

Nearly all the ENSO regions are reporting weak La Nina conditions except for the eastern central PAC where its rather cold!

 

 

ssta_c.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A quick ENSO update and one will notice an obvious subsurface cooling trend which will allow the central/eastern based La Nina to grow over the coming weeks.

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

Nearly all the ENSO regions are reporting weak La Nina conditions except for the eastern central PAC where its rather cold!

 

 

ssta_c.gif

Going to see a lot more cooling in the subsurface as we go forward.

 

The warmth in 4 is going to diminish and mix out every day. Our oceans are changing very rapidly this year. I believe our seasonal lag is going away and that both of our oceans plus atmosphere are about to find a lockstep in a phase shift. 1st attempt was 2008-2011 before a spike and then 3 year drop. The PAC has been venting massive heat for half a decade to atmosphere, hence the many flooding events and Cali/TX long standing rainshadow.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Going to see a lot more cooling in the subsurface as we go forward.

 

The warmth in 4 is going to diminish and mix out every day. Our oceans are changing very rapidly this year. I believe our seasonal lag is going away and that both of our oceans plus atmosphere are about to find a lockstep in a phase shift. 1st attempt was 2008-2011 before a spike and then 3 year drop. The PAC has been venting massive heat for half a decade to atmosphere, hence the many flooding events and Cali/TX long standing rainshadow.

My guess is that this year's La Nina is the start of a new PAC trend and the slow decadal flip of the PDO.  By 2024, I do believe we will see a rather significant flip in the ocean SST's across the N PAC.  The "Roaring 20's" have a lot of interesting things setting up in both the wx department and in the world we live in.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

La Nina Winters usually start abruptly and give away to a very snowy December (Wouldnt that be a change from the last 2 Decembers w very little snowfall, if any around mby) and at some point end sometime in Winter. Hopefully, Winter continues after a brief "Thaw." Autumn tends to be a mild one.

 

Btw: I think Dec 2017 was a top5 December for the Detroit Metro Area!

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The JMA seasonal came out the other day and I like what I'm seeing in terms of consistency.  It appears we may indeed have a solid chance for a seasonal September and not the torchy ones of recent years.  The theme going forward is like a broken record for those in the W/SW as the ridge does not want to move anytime soon.  Unfortunately, the drought is going to get worse and chances of precip are not looking pretty.  

 

Taking a look at the 500mb, it is almost identical to the maps I posted in a previous post whereby there are ridges off both North American coasts.  This blocking pattern is showing up on numerous other climate models which should provide confidence that it'll develop.  I don't know about you, but I am looking forward to a normal September!

 

Temps/Precip...the EC hurricane threat is not as great as it once looked but still looks like a favorable pattern for U.S. hits in the GOM and along the EC.

 

 

Y202008.D0900_gl2.png

 

 

Y202008.D0900_gl0.png

 

 

SST's...the notable trend is for a much larger basin-wide cold pool over the equatorial PAC and warmer NE PAC warm blob.

 

Y202008.D0900_gls.png

1.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can definitely go for a normal "Autumn" w no snowfall, until after "Thanksgiving." End of November is perfect for snowfall to begin our Winter. Anything earlier than that gets me a little concerned. Even a Thanksgiving snowstorm is acceptable, but nothing sooner than that.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This from NOAA:

 

NOAA Precipitation Outlook – Winter 2020-2021

NOAA is predicting above average snowfall this winter in Montana, Wyoming, and the Great Lakes area with an increased chance of precipitation in Northern Colorado starting in March. <_>

 

 

 

 

Lets not forget, NOAA is usually very conservative, so for them to predict above normal snowfall for the Great Lakes, means that this Winter will ROCK N ROLL BABY! :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Let's take a dive deeper into the JMA seasonal for the all important months of Oct/Nov as we get into the heart of Autumn, as well as, what the new developing LRC may look like.  First off, what has been a common denominator based off of all the global climate models is some sort of SW/W coast ridge throughout the Autumn months.  Given how the pattern has been so persistent around here in the desert SW and west coast, I got a feeling that this drought is going to feedback and just park a ridge out here till maybe in December when the jet really strengthens and troughs may begin to move in.  Until then, however, I highly doubt this SW ridge goes away anytime soon.  Blocking patterns this season are going to play a very important role IMO, but it's the high latitudes I'm more interested in to see if there is any chance of a good snow season for our Sub.

With that being said, here are some maps that show the Oct/Nov 500mb predicted patterns along with temp/precip maps.

 

Oct....slightly AN with near normal precip...hurricane season looks to continue along the EC.

 

Y202008.D0900_gl2.png

 

Y202008.D0900_gl0.png

 

 

Nov...temp/precip pattern resembles a typical La Nina look with an active northern stream, but with the blocking across both coasts of North America, it leaves a corridor of seasonal temps across the central CONUS and the likelihood of an early build up of Arctic cold across W/NW NAMER.  We have been seeing this type of early winter pattern from our friends to the North in recent years where Winter gets going early and often.  Let's see if this is going to continue this year.

 

If you look at the last frame below, the W PAC may come alive both in Oct and Nov which is a Big clue to see if we start to see re-curving Typhoon's.  It has been a non-existent typhoon season out in the west PAC so to see the model sniffing out some activity is a sign the new LRC pattern may be indeed igniting some activity in Oct/Nov.  If you take a close look at the precip pattern in the frame just above for the month of Oct, you can see a sliver of AN precip just east or over Japan.  If you want troughs to develop across the eastern 2/3rd's of the nation (utilizing the East Asian Rule) this is something to look for.  The same ideas stand for the month of November below.

 

 

Y202008.D0900_gl2.png

 

 

Y202008.D0900_gl0.png

 

 

Lastly, the SST forecast is steadfast with the ideal of a basin wide La Nina and focusing the coldest waters near the ENSO 3.4 region.

 

Y202008.D0900_gls.png

 

 

Y202008.D0900_gls.png

2.png

3.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's interesting to see JB calling for a mild eastern Winter.  I don't think I've ever seen him call for a warm cold season (Nov-Mar) across the east. Here is his temp forecast and snowfall forecast.  One this is for certain, there are going to be a TON of cutters and N Stream sliders/riders.

 

 

 

  

1.jpg

2.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's interesting to see JB calling for a mild eastern Winter.  I don't think I've ever seen him call for a warm cold season (Nov-Mar) across the east. Here is his temp forecast and snowfall forecast.  One this is for certain, there are going to be a TON of cutters and N Stream sliders/riders.

I could sure live with these maps.  2 years ago his call for above normal snowfall came true for most of Nebraska during the incredible winter of 2018-2019.  I'm just not used to him calling for above normal temps in the Northeast.  I don't recall that in the last few years of his forecasts.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I could sure live with these maps. 2 years ago his call for above normal snowfall came true for most of Nebraska during the incredible winter of 2018-2019. I'm just not used to him calling for above normal temps in the Northeast. I don't recall that in the last few years of his forecasts.

He's a mega weenie so it is definitely surprising to see him forecast a dud winter for his backyard.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He's a mega weenie so it is definitely surprising to see him forecast a dud winter for his backyard.

Yes and also an entertainer. I would never pay for his subscription, unless you like to be entertained by him, then, sure why not.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some interesting data came in last night off the JMA weeklies which suggest that by Week 2 a very active pattern could set up across the MW/GL's region.  The temp pattern below is conducive for a battle between early Autumn and late Summer.  This is a prime set up for Severe Wx and leads me to believe it'll be a bumpy ride for some as we open up the month of Sept.

 

 

 

Y202008.D1912_gl2.png

 

Y202008.D1912_gl0.png

 

 

Looking down the road, we see the model establish a Bearing Sea trough for Week 2-3 of Sept and a good signal for W PAC Typhoon's....could this be the pattern for Sept where we see numerous CF's slide down the leeward side of the Rockies into the central Plains and bleed east???  It's looking better each run as we get closer to the first month of met Autumn.

 

 

Y202008.D1912_gl0.png

 

 

 

Temps...

 

Y202008.D1912_gl2.png

3.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Today it the 3rd Thursday of the month and that means the updated CPC long range guess is now out.  Their guess as of today is for a warm fall in our area with near average precipitation. Then for the upcoming winter season their guess is for a equal chance in the temperatures and above average in the precipitation. So we shall see how that plays out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Literally what is climo?

 

That map is lazy and looks like a 5 year old put it together.

Check out "Alaska." That is the best part of all.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is it too early to talk SNOW???  The last 3 runs off the Euro weeklies were showing some early signs of Winter heading into the N Rockies but now it extends into the opening days of October.  Some individual EPS members are hinting at some snow for our western and northern members.  It won't be long till be start tracking autumn storm systems and I really have a good feeling about this season producing some very strong systems.  Could be a banner year for big dogs.  Just a feeling.

 

 

1.png

2.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is it too early to talk SNOW??? The last 3 runs off the Euro weeklies were showing some early signs of Winter heading into the N Rockies but now it extends into the opening days of October. Some individual EPS members are hinting at some snow for our western and northern members. It won't be long till be start tracking autumn storm systems and I really have a good feeling about this season producing some very strong systems. Could be a banner year for big dogs. Just a feeling.

Excited to start seeing more of this!
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is it too early to talk SNOW??? The last 3 runs off the Euro weeklies were showing some early signs of Winter heading into the N Rockies but now it extends into the opening days of October. Some individual EPS members are hinting at some snow for our western and northern members. It won't be long till be start tracking autumn storm systems and I really have a good feeling about this season producing some very strong systems. Could be a banner year for big dogs. Just a feeling.

Doesn’t even seem possible with the hot stretch we’re currently experiencing. Just seeing a snow map is exciting.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 1st Snows of the season are looking like a possibility across the N Rockies as the seasons strongest trough comes down out of Canada to open up the 1st month of met Autumn.  Boy, what a change this will be and refreshing for you guys out in the Plains as Autumn settles in. You know me, I love it when nature aligns with the calendar.  This would be right on cue!

 

 

1.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Check out the track on hurricane Laura this morning if ya'll get the chance.

 

If we were to give the US a winter look with that storm....its a 2 footer here. :)

That snow map would mean im in the 40s somewhere there.

 

This summer is going to go out roaring and fall/winter is coming in that way too.

 

There were small hints of this in the last few years seasonal transitions. Long term patterns that still overwhelmed the changes. I think this year, there's nothing to snap us back to warm after the cool/cold starts coming.

 

It's going to be wild. Getcha popcorn ready.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Check out the track on hurricane Laura this morning if ya'll get the chance.

 

If we were to give the US a winter look with that storm....its a 2 footer here. :)

That snow map would mean im in the 40s somewhere there.

 

This summer is going to go out roaring and fall/winter is coming in that way too.

 

There were small hints of this in the last few years seasonal transitions. Long term patterns that still overwhelmed the changes. I think this year, there's nothing to snap us back to warm after the cool/cold starts coming.

 

It's going to be wild. Getcha popcorn ready.

Your thoughts mimic what I was just thinking as I looked at that map again. The last 3/4 years have brought early autumn snows in this region. It seems more like a longer term trend. The glaciers are actually building back up there instead of melting away! #DeathtoWarmingstas

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Your thoughts mimic what I was just thinking as I looked at that map again. The last 3/4 years have brought early autumn snows in this region. It seems more like a longer term trend. The glaciers are actually building back up there instead of melting away! #DeathtoWarmingstas

Yes sir. Here's to never EVER believing the lies. Even if it cost me my desires 16 years ago. It was a choice and I'm thankful for the road I took.

 

40+ years of cold is on its way. The EC/WC will believe the warming lies for several more years as the longer term patterns will cause rises of up to 14° in the east/ne like it did back in the mid 1700s, parts of the 1600s as well.

 

History doesn't lie though. Never has. Just have to know where to look. Classic winters are on the way. Ive always read that in the very old days tge trees would get really strong and thick in the years preceeding hard snow. I've seen that in the last 3 years here. Seasons of abundance and overabundance. I know what follows that.

 

Alaska warming the last 18 months and becoming more wet and snowy is actually more evidence of this fact. Downstream over the CONUS and North America will be a longer term cold pool, and retrograde in severe wx back over the traditional high plains. Its happening.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes sir. Here's to never EVER believing the lies. Even if it cost me my desires 16 years ago. It was a choice and I'm thankful for the road I took.

 

40+ years of cold is on its way. The EC/WC will believe the warming lies for several more years as the longer term patterns will cause rises of up to 14° in the east/ne like it did back in the mid 1700s, parts of the 1600s as well.

 

History doesn't lie though. Never has. Just have to know where to look. Classic winters are on the way. Ive always read that in the very old days tge trees would get really strong and thick in the years preceeding hard snow. I've seen that in the last 3 years here. Seasons of abundance and overabundance. I know what follows that.

 

Alaska warming the last 18 months and becoming more wet and snowy is actually more evidence of this fact. Downstream over the CONUS and North America will be a longer term cold pool, and retrograde in severe wx back over the traditional high plains. Its happening.

Good luck with that.  History hasn't ever dealt with 7 billion plus people.  Bet you can't find "data" for that in your weather history.  The world is warming.  The climate scientific community agrees with that.  But i guess you'll trust billionaire oil execs over hardworking real people.  Ignorance is bliss i guess.  Say Hi to your masters at Halliburton.   I know those nasty liberals are out to spread lies and scare you!!!  taxes!!! ahhhhhhh  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...