Niko Posted October 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 9, 2020 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Good morning trend continue to move towards a wetter and more active period as we move into the second half of Oct. Good to see all that snow cover in Canada and down the Rockies. 3 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 ^ LOVE that EPS snow mean. More members are showing a storm the week after next. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 3 hours ago, Clinton said: Good morning trend continue to move towards a wetter and more active period as we move into the second half of Oct. Good to see all that snow cover in Canada and down the Rockies. I recorded a solid 1/2" as my first snow of the season on 10-23-13 here in Marshall. This map would hint at a similar outcome. Looks like almost everyone except our most southern members have a shot verbatim. Like Niko said, we get nervous about too much snow before Turkey Day around here, but coatings and dustings aren't bad. I like the way the snowcover is advancing by latitude southward. Huge gaps in Canada and N Plains are a red flag from past experience. Like Nov of 2011 when I had scored more snow than Gaylord. Major red flag and we know how that ended. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 12, 2020 Report Share Posted October 12, 2020 On 10/7/2020 at 3:53 PM, Tom said: Winter of '13-'14 had virtually Zero blocking and the primary atmospheric driving force was the stout -EPO/-WPO. We had a strong PV but it was more elongated and thus funneled arctic air into the U.S. If we have another year with a strong PV and no blocking it won't go well but I got a good feeling we'll have it this year. 2 consecutive years of low solar, going into the 3rd year this year, should allow the delayed response towards a -AO/-NAO pattern. I read once somewhere that it typically takes 2-3 years of low solar to see a response in the high lats during winter. Another thing that has been mentioned is the record low sea ice near Scandinavia (eastern Arctic) which would allow HP to form in the Winter. Yeah, this is why a -EPO seems to trump every other background contributor and really delivers for the CONUS. Also, wasn't someone in here monitoring volcanism during this solar minimum? Based on all these endless sunny streaks, we could use a bit more of that, lol. Look at how much Pinatubo did to lower global temps. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 12, 2020 Report Share Posted October 12, 2020 On 10/9/2020 at 3:37 PM, Niko said: You know, in a way this guy's outlook is good in as much as he shows a large portion of the CONUS getting snow, even down south a lot like 13-14. But, while he says a lot of that is above average snow, his map for SWMI is definitely NOT above avg. He may not be covering the GL's micro-climate very accurately so I'll allow for that. Basically, it's kinda 13-14 ish but not as deep except E Nebraska was really left out of the snow party that winter so that region may actually be an improvement. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 12, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 12, 2020 5 hours ago, jaster220 said: You know, in a way this guy's outlook is good in as much as he shows a large portion of the CONUS getting snow, even down south a lot like 13-14. But, while he says a lot of that is above average snow, his map for SWMI is definitely NOT above avg. He may not be covering the GL's micro-climate very accurately so I'll allow for that. Basically, it's kinda 13-14 ish but not as deep except E Nebraska was really left out of the snow party that winter so that region may actually be an improvement. AHHhhhhh, the good ol' 2013-14 Winter, where snowstorm after snowstorm was relentless. Bone-chilling temps and all time records were broken constantly. Do I dare say a repeat for this upcoming Winter??!! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 12, 2020 Report Share Posted October 12, 2020 Getting a very heavy rain shower at this time. It was windy but not at this time. The current temperature here is at 68. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 @jaster220, its a '13-14 blended with a 2010, imo. I think that's solid. Transient Niña riding with less suppression and more moisture return to the North unlike 13-14. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 Also @jaster220, the solar and volcanism are on a 18-24 month delay and have been rolling hard for 3 years. Problem is, they aren't news anymore. There's no money in scaring people anymore/too much other stuff going on. My 2c... Whats coming isn't warm. Never was going to be and cooling episodes don't just drop slowly, they crash. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 8 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said: @jaster220, its a '13-14 blended with a 2010, imo. I think that's solid. Transient Niña riding with less suppression and more moisture return to the North unlike 13-14. Classic Nina has the OHV wet, and 13-14 was historic snowfall (tho not sure where we ended up for overall moisture but it certainly wasn't BN). I'm a little lost on the bolded part. Are you speaking of the Plains region when you said "North"? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Classic Nina has the OHV wet, and 13-14 was historic snowfall (tho not sure where we ended up for overall moisture but it certainly wasn't BN). I'm a little lost on the bolded part. Are you speaking of the Plains region when you said "North"? There were large sections of the US that saw overall less moisture while actually seeing more snow and or vice versa. PV intrusions like 2013 always suppress moisture return. Always and or "cap and trap" the lows over the central US until the energy shears out and becomes garbage. I still say 2013 was a fluke for me, no matter how spectacular because it took so many mixed type storms to get me there. What was truly amazing was the violence in a winter thunderstorm on that big of a thermal gradient. It was a very exciting winter and one of my favorites but very different. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 39 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: There were large sections of the US that saw overall less moisture while actually seeing more snow and or vice versa. PV intrusions like 2013 always suppress moisture return. Always and or "cap and trap" the lows over the central US until the energy shears out and becomes garbage. I still say 2013 was a fluke for me, no matter how spectacular because it took so many mixed type storms to get me there. What was truly amazing was the violence in a winter thunderstorm on that big of a thermal gradient. It was a very exciting winter and one of my favorites but very different. Gotcha. I've been thinking about how long it has been since the Lwr Lakes has seen an actual bombing storm. Oh, we've scored some really nice great Big Dogs, don't get me wrong. But the classic "comma head" systems have been MIA aside from lucky Chicago and extreme SE Wisco that got rocked by GHD-1. Even that was already a deep SLP down south tho iirc. I'm remembering the 70s/80s/90s when storms like the Dec '87 gravity wave event roared into the Mitt dropping to 28.94" hg. That kind of stuff just doesn't happen these days. We get the moisture over-running the cold air dome scenario, but not the clash of warm/cold air masses known in times past. Sure would be great to experience one of those this winter. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Gotcha. I've been thinking about how long it has been since the Lwr Lakes has seen an actual bombing storm. Oh, we've scored some really nice great Big Dogs, don't get me wrong. But the classic "comma head" systems have been MIA aside from lucky Chicago and extreme SE Wisco that got rocked by GHD-1. Even that was already a deep SLP down south tho iirc. I'm remembering the 70s/80s/90s when storms like the Dec '87 gravity wave event roared into the Mitt dropping to 28.94" hg. That kind of stuff just doesn't happen these days. We get the moisture over-running the cold air dome scenario, but not the clash of warm/cold air masses known in times past. Sure would be great to experience one of those this winter. Yes sir. This is true. They've all been off the east coast all the way from the late 80s to a couple years ago. The late 70s had some bombs over land and the great lakes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said: Yes sir. This is true. They've all been off the east coast all the way from the late 80s to a couple years ago. The late 70s had some bombs over land and the great lakes. Here you go amigo. I'll be stoked for you if anything like 10-11 plays out down your way. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 @Tom Have you seen any updates from WxBell on the winter? Apparently others have taken notice.. Quote Replying to @BigJoeBastardi So your initial winter weather forecast is trash???? I mean u had philly 3 to 5 degrees above normal now 30 days later its going to be frigid???? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 13-14, when a 384 hr snowfall map could be trusted. I say that only slightly tongue-in-cheek. Map call for period = approx. 20" Actual recorded snow in mby for period = 19.9" 2 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 58 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Here you go amigo. I'll be stoked for you if anything like 10-11 plays out down your way. Some have said it's possibly a blend of 10-11 and 13-14. Now that'd be interesting. When you're in the highest range of the weenie/clownage maps, yet it's legit. Now that's #FUN One of my best (tho grainy as h*ll) pic's from that winter. Evening of Jan 6th, Approx 22" depth, -16F/-41F WC. And oh btw, I took that standing in my garage looking down my driveway. That's as far as I could get my car in after work, then I dug to it and unburied it. As you can see, I can only pile snow so deep against my house and it falls back down, so a lot goes the other side. The highest I measured that bank later on in Feb at the crown of winter, it was 57" high and getting difficult just to toss another shovel full on top. That was the year I really missed my blower! 4 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 3 hours ago, jaster220 said: Some have said it's possibly a blend of 10-11 and 13-14. Now that'd be interesting. When you're in the highest range of the weenie/clownage maps, yet it's legit. Now that's #FUN One of my best (tho grainy as h*ll) pic's from that winter. Evening of Jan 6th, Approx 22" depth, -16F/-41F WC. And oh btw, I took that standing in my garage looking down my driveway. That's as far as I could get my car in after work, then I dug to it and unburied it. As you can see, I can only pile snow so deep against my house and it falls back down, so a lot goes the other side. The highest I measured that bank later on in Feb at the crown of winter, it was 57" high and getting difficult just to toss another shovel full on top. That was the year I really missed my blower! That pic brings back good memories of walking through "tunnels" throughout the neighborhood and walking on the sound of "crunchy" snow from the frigid temps. I recall the snow banks so high that on every corner you had to really STOP at every side street corner bc you couldn't see around the banks if cars were coming. Gosh, it seems like ages since we had a banner Winter. A lot of members just to our west and north had a coupe good ones recently and I think its time nature balances it out this season. Whadya say?? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 5 hours ago, jaster220 said: @Tom Have you seen any updates from WxBell on the winter? Apparently others have taken notice.. I made a comment about this a bit ago where I'd thought he be making adjustments to his very warm outlook for the eastern CONUS and he did just that. He's even considering making more adjustments once we get towards end of this month. I think he's being cautiously optimistic about the cold signals showing up but also trying hard not to jump on the cold train just yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 6 hours ago, jaster220 said: @Tom Have you seen any updates from WxBell on the winter? Apparently others have taken notice.. I saw this graphic Joe D' Aleo posted on WxBell which shows the comparisons between the IRI multi-ensemble and his Pioneer Model. Pretty good agreement at this stage. I will say, his model inputs over 20+ variables and does a good job "seeing" cold and notice the blocking across Greenland and N/NE Canada. I like the trends in recent weeks. BTW, this IRI model updates tomorrow I believe so I'll post maps when they come in. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 The JMA seasonal came in a couple days ago and sorta took a step back for December while November looks like it pretty much stayed the course. January appears to be when some real frigid air begins to pool in Canada as the model sorta teases the lower 48. November...temp/precip patterns below show near normal in the SE with AN across the west/sw/plains/upper mw/mw...contradicting with the CFSv2. December...temp/precip patterns look similar to November... January...temp/precip cooler and wetter overall, esp the northern half of the Sub...cold pool lurking in Western Canada...also looks like a Phase 3 MJO pattern... Finally, the La Nina trending colder and more widespread colder anomalies... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 For what it is worth Paul Pastelol at Accuweather had now posted as his (their) analog years (winters) for the upcoming winter season. The years he is using are 2016/17. 2005/06. 1983/84. 1985/86. 1995/96 and 2010/11. In looking at the listed past winters well all I can say is I guess no matter how this winter turns out one of the above could fit. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 Tom, I see a very strong storm is forcasted to be moving into the Bearing Sea. Could that impact our weather to start Nov? I noticed both the Euro Weeklies and the GEFS extended are picking up on a large system around the 2nd or 3rd of Nov. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 6 hours ago, Tom said: I made a comment about this a bit ago where I'd thought he be making adjustments to his very warm outlook for the eastern CONUS and he did just that. He's even considering making more adjustments once we get towards end of this month. I think he's being cautiously optimistic about the cold signals showing up but also trying hard not to jump on the cold train just yet. I tried to google their pre-season forecast and didn't come up with this year's maps from August that you had posted some time earlier. I thought that before they would have them on their site home page for free but I don't see it there either. Is it now behind the "pay wall" do you know? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 3 hours ago, Clinton said: Tom, I see a very strong storm is forcasted to be moving into the Bearing Sea. Could that impact our weather to start Nov? I noticed both the Euro Weeklies and the GEFS extended are picking up on a large system around the 2nd or 3rd of Nov. I'll have to dig into this later on... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 14, 2020 Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 17 minutes ago, jaster220 said: I tried to google their pre-season forecast and didn't come up with this year's maps from August that you had posted some time earlier. I thought that before they would have them on their site home page for free but I don't see it there either. Is it now behind the "pay wall" do you know? Their old forecast is behind the pay wall at this time... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 10 hours ago, jaster220 said: Some have said it's possibly a blend of 10-11 and 13-14. Now that'd be interesting. When you're in the highest range of the weenie/clownage maps, yet it's legit. Now that's #FUN One of my best (tho grainy as h*ll) pic's from that winter. Evening of Jan 6th, Approx 22" depth, -16F/-41F WC. And oh btw, I took that standing in my garage looking down my driveway. That's as far as I could get my car in after work, then I dug to it and unburied it. As you can see, I can only pile snow so deep against my house and it falls back down, so a lot goes the other side. The highest I measured that bank later on in Feb at the crown of winter, it was 57" high and getting difficult just to toss another shovel full on top. That was the year I really missed my blower! I just got the chills looking at this pic.....wow, that is a lotta snow my friend and a heck of a work-out as well. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 22 hours ago, jaster220 said: Here you go amigo. I'll be stoked for you if anything like 10-11 plays out down your way. Looking at these beautiful storms popping up on the models has 2010 written all over it. 2010 was from October thru March 25 2011, an absolute stunner. Either way, since the summer AO dump, I'd agree, all signals point to the ferocity of winter, also an out-of-season tornado season is brewing. Its going to be a very long winter, if you want my opinion in stone today. Not just some snowfall numbers, etc.. Talking 2000 or 2010, 2013 cold stuff. Snowed 6 inches in November 2000 here. I remember walking out of work a month after starting my first job and getting snowed there and having to wait on my Dad because I couldn't drive on it yet. It was a beauty. I'm excited and full of some great memories today. Something about these zero years.... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 I just took a quick glance at the latest IRI Multi-model suite and all I gotta say is...."trends are our friends"...will comment later today and post maps. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 The Weather Channel has released their winter outlook. They are forecasting a warm to very warm November for much of the country, too. 2 1 1 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-cooler-north-warmer-south-with-ongoing-la-nina?fbclid=IwAR1CoWldQvKKAcDeoh5h1pgPNbmlDc1QB5xawS90hnjNB22yjIpl1mbO_4c 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 On 10/14/2020 at 5:04 AM, westMJim said: For what it is worth Paul Pastelol at Accuweather had now posted as his (their) analog years (winters) for the upcoming winter season. The years he is using are 2016/17. 2005/06. 1983/84. 1985/86. 1995/96 and 2010/11. In looking at the listed past winters well all I can say is I guess no matter how this winter turns out one of the above could fit. Thanks for sharing. Where was it posted? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 22 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The Weather Channel has released their winter outlook. They are forecasting a warm to very warm November for much of the country, too. TWC says what winter? Lol. Can't see this playing out during a Nina. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 3 hours ago, AbbyJr said: Thanks for sharing. Where was it posted? Its on their paid site 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 Here is the CPC's updated winter outlook https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted October 15, 2020 Report Share Posted October 15, 2020 The guy that likes to use woolly worms as one way of seeing what the winter will be like said he only had two worms so far. Usually he sees many more and he mentioned that winters are usually on the mild side when there are lower numbers of those worms. So IDK, I guess we’ll see. I don’t know if those worms are good winter forecasters anyway! But I can verify that there aren’t (haven’t seen many) nearly as many of those woolly bears around this fall compared to last fall and a normal fall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Sparky said: The guy that likes to use woolly worms as one way of seeing what the winter will be like said he only had two worms so far. Usually he sees many more and he mentioned that winters are usually on the mild side when there are lower numbers of those worms. So IDK, I guess we’ll see. I don’t know if those worms are good winter forecasters anyway! But I can verify that there aren’t (haven’t seen many) nearly as many of those woolly bears around this fall compared to last fall and a normal fall. The one I saw in my back yard had black ends and a very dark almost black middle. Normally the two black ends indicate harsh early and late winter. I've seen them before with a very light brown middle meaning mild heart of winter (which this area has had a lot of lately. Tbh, since paying attention to this prognostication bug, I can't remember seeing such a dark brown middle indicating a mostly cold middle of winter. Not quite the solid black coloring seen in 2013 but close. Will be a good test of the theory. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 I've seen a TON of wooly worms here over the past couple of weeks. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 On 10/14/2020 at 7:04 AM, westMJim said: For what it is worth Paul Pastelol at Accuweather had now posted as his (their) analog years (winters) for the upcoming winter season. The years he is using are 2016/17. 2005/06. 1983/84. 1985/86. 1995/96 and 2010/11. In looking at the listed past winters well all I can say is I guess no matter how this winter turns out one of the above could fit. Just saw this. Lol. So what he's saying is, something and some weather is going to happen. Pretty much gonna nail it. Those years have as much in common as a cat, dog, bird, fish and a lizard. "Well crap. They're all animals." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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