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Winter & Spring 2021 Discussion


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46 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Can't help but think the Dec version of the pattern might go bigly!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

Yep. 24/12z Euro kept this suppressed over our way, while the 25/0z GFS is now the model showing decent rain shield into SMI.

20201025 0z GFS h120 Surf.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Can't help but think the Dec version of the pattern might go bigly!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

Go bigly..or go home baby!

Perhaps this will have it's day after all.

 

OH BBs.JPG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This sure looks a lot like what we have going on now..

 

Winter 2013-14 Forecast Graphic-Geos.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The "gold std" of winters here in the Mitt

 

2013-14 CONUS AWSSI.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Yep. 24/12z Euro kept this suppressed over our way, while the 25/0z GFS is now the model showing decent rain shield into SMI.

20201025 0z GFS h120 Surf.png

I can't wait to see what happens with this, and we will want to store this in our memory because the models are struggling.

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16 hours ago, jaster220 said:

The "gold std" of winters here in the Mitt

 

2013-14 CONUS AWSSI.png

This shows as "extreme" at my location (TOP KS). I don't remember it being extreme but it was a better snow lover's winter than any of the ones we have had since. I do know February 4, 2014 was the last time we had a snowfall of greater than 6". (I think it was around 13".) I need to double check, but we have had very, very few 3" or over events since then as well. The cupboard has been pretty bare the last six going on seven years here.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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35 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Direct weather is garbage. Just hopping in to say that. Just some idiot with a youtube channel, trust me. I've met him.

News flash! I presume everyone knows that him/Craig/JB/add name's maps are for entertainment purposes only. But geez, thx for looking out for us. Guess I'll cancel any plans for winter activities now

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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On 10/18/2020 at 12:02 PM, jaster220 said:

 

I certainly agree that our "odds" based on his analog list look promising. It is ofc, just an educated hunch and nothing's been following the analog lists lately, so we just won't know until we know. It could dud, or equally, it could over-perform.

I award you with the most sensible post award.

I don't want it to turn out this way but the way everyone seems so giddy about the current enso state and analogs for a cold and snowy winter reminds me of 2011-12. Everything was supposedly lined up perfect that year....and the result was utterly terrible.

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On 10/25/2020 at 4:58 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

"Record Extreme", that's a winter that would even make the late great "The Extreme", Bill Paxton proud.

What an amazing winter that was for you folks. I forget that it was the best one ever for you.

It was truly a Winter to remember! I was getting snowstorm after snowstorm every other day and breaking all sorts of records. I think Jaster approached 100" or so, meanwhile, I received 95" give or take.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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32 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

I award you with the most sensible post award.

I don't want it to turn out this way but the way everyone seems so giddy about the current enso state and analogs for a cold and snowy winter reminds me of 2011-12. Everything was supposedly lined up perfect that year....and the result was utterly terrible.

So true wrt 11-12!

Old school logic had me questioning that in my gut when I saw those outlooks. Chicago had four straight 50"+ seasons which had NEVER happened (I share their zone) so that right there was a red flag on the snowy outlooks, not to mention simple odds were beyond long for a 5th. Ofc the snow-monger in me wrestled with my winter spidey sense hoping to win. Autumn 2011 was polar opposite tho. Mostly warmth with occasional chill or random snow. I give this year much better chance of coming through for us. Main question is longevity imho

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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22 hours ago, jaster220 said:

News flash! I presume everyone knows that him/Craig/JB/add name's maps are for entertainment purposes only. But geez, thx for looking out for us. Guess I'll cancel any plans for winter activities now

I feel strongly about it precisely because I've met him. Dude is an airhead lol

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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On 10/26/2020 at 6:59 PM, Beltrami Island said:

I award you with the most sensible post award.

I don't want it to turn out this way but the way everyone seems so giddy about the current enso state and analogs for a cold and snowy winter reminds me of 2011-12. Everything was supposedly lined up perfect that year....and the result was utterly terrible.

I hated that winter for so many reasons I can't state them correctly. That one and 2012-13 both. 

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On 10/26/2020 at 6:59 PM, Beltrami Island said:

I award you with the most sensible post award.

I don't want it to turn out this way but the way everyone seems so giddy about the current enso state and analogs for a cold and snowy winter reminds me of 2011-12. Everything was supposedly lined up perfect that year....and the result was utterly terrible.

I remember that year quite well and if I recall correctly, that season set up with a very powerful GOA Low in Oct/Nov that pumped a long term long wave ridge throughout the central CONUS.  The waters also cooled off dramatically in both Oct/Nov in the NE PAC and set the stage for an incredibly cold/snowy Alaskan winter.  I remember reading stories of houses buried in Anchorage and Fairbanks.  It was a winter for the record books up there which is a nail in the coffin for any cold in the lower 48.  

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

I remember that year quite well and if I recall correctly, that season set up with a very powerful GOA Low in Oct/Nov that pumped a long term long wave ridge throughout the central CONUS.  The waters also cooled off dramatically in both Oct/Nov in the NE PAC and set the stage for an incredibly cold/snowy Alaskan winter.  I remember reading stories of houses buried in Anchorage and Fairbanks.  It was a winter for the record books up there which is a nail in the coffin for any cold in the lower 48.  

Yes that setup seemed to obliterate any ENSO signal and was the opposite of the ridge that made 2013-14 so memorable for the eastern half of the CONUS. 

I don't think Fairbanks did to well that winter from snow perspective.  They were on the wrong side of the Alaska Range and had many Chinook patterns with the southerly flow.  Anchorage, Valdez, Juneau, and the coastal areas did get huge snows though. 

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1 hour ago, Beltrami Island said:

Yes that setup seemed to obliterate any ENSO signal and was the opposite of the ridge that made 2013-14 so memorable for the eastern half of the CONUS. 

I don't think Fairbanks did to well that winter from snow perspective.  They were on the wrong side of the Alaska Range and had many Chinook patterns with the southerly flow.  Anchorage, Valdez, Juneau, and the coastal areas did get huge snows though. 

This season I’m seeing similarities to that ‘13-‘14 season in the NE PAC.  Models have been busting in this region (EPO) and the warm waters continue to grow which is aiding in more ridging.  I’m curious to see the Nov outlooks coming out next week, esp the Euro seasonal.

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9 hours ago, Tom said:

This season I’m seeing similarities to that ‘13-‘14 season in the NE PAC.  Models have been busting in this region (EPO) and the warm waters continue to grow which is aiding in more ridging.  I’m curious to see the Nov outlooks coming out next week, esp the Euro seasonal.

If this "blob" episode, or we could call it the double blob now, touches what the downstream weather did from December 2013-March 2015, there's going to be some insane weather for the next 3 years.

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To add to @OKwx2k4post above, the strongest clue I'm seeing for this Winter season that is ongoing across the N PAC is the big shifting around of the warm pools since the 1st week of October.  Check out the trends during the past 4 weeks...

Oct 6th...

Y202010.D0712_gls.png

Oct 13th...

Y202010.D1412_gls.png

Oct 20th...

Y202010.D2112_gls.png

Oct 27th...

Y202010.D2812_gls.png

 

The expansive coverage of warm waters in the NE PAC has grown considerably.  The warm waters near the Sea of Oshkosh, IMO, is also another good clue that this will promote ridging which should also correlate to a western NAMER Ridge.  Could the climate models be late to the party in sniffing this pattern??

 

Well, it appears the CFSv2 is doing just that for November....last 10 runs showing a clear trend...look also near eastern Siberia where a trough is replaced by a ridge, then a trough underneath which would place Japan (EAR Theory) in a stormy/cold pattern that correlates for the eastern CONUS trough.  I'm starting to wonder if after this upcoming warm period, we see a battle zone for the central CONUS during the middle part of November and then the flood gates open up to Full Blown - Winter around the holidays.

1.gif

 

 

The JMA Weeklies below show the warm up next week and active pattern...

Week 2...more tropical trouble possible along the EC/GOM...

Y202010.D2812_gl2.png

 

Y202010.D2812_gl0.png

 

Week 3-4...

 

Y202010.D2812_gl2.png

Y202010.D2812_gl0.png

 

The Blocking keeps holding strong into late November over in Eurasia across the pole into eastern North America/Greenland...I like this look for late month...

 

5.png

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13 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

If this "blob" episode, or we could call it the double blob now, touches what the downstream weather did from December 2013-March 2015, there's going to be some insane weather for the next 3 years.

Insanely sucky for California. I want snow but I also don't want to see California decimated by fires.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Over the past several years, the North Hemisphere snow mass index has been running above normal and this year's pace looks to keep that trend.  Iirc, the '17-'18 season held one of the highest readings and that year is being used as an analog.  Could we be establishing a new decadal trend???  Remember, Al Gore informed us that snow was supposed to be a thing of the past...

 

fmi_swe_tracker.jpg

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

Over the past several years, the North Hemisphere snow mass index has been running above normal and this year's pace looks to keep that trend.  Iirc, the '17-'18 season held one of the highest readings and that year is being used as an analog.  Could we be establishing a new decadal trend???  Remember, Al Gore informed us that snow was supposed to be a thing of the past...

 

fmi_swe_tracker.jpg

Al Gore predicted there'd be no snow falling on the planet in the year 2020?

Mmmm, I don't seem to remember that one.... Also not sure why you guys refer to Gore so much as if he's THE source of climate change information. I prefer to listen to what the actual majority of the scientific community and their current message says vs whatever Gore was claiming over a decade ago.

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7 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Al Gore predicted there'd be no snow falling on the planet in the year 2020?

Mmmm, I don't seem to remember that one.... Also not sure why you guys refer to Gore so much as if he's THE source of climate change information. I prefer to listen to what the actual majority of the scientific community and their current message says vs whatever Gore was claiming over a decade ago.

Anyone who claims it will not snow on the Midwest in any of our lifetimes (I’m 21) is insane 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Al Gore predicted there'd be no snow falling on the planet in the year 2020?

Mmmm, I don't seem to remember that one.... Also not sure why you guys refer to Gore so much as if he's THE source of climate change information. I prefer to listen to what the actual majority of the scientific community and their current message says vs whatever Gore was claiming over a decade ago.

I don't want to be rude, but are you not that old? People who were old in the early 2000s remember things like promises Florida being mostly underwater now and the ice caps being gone. You can argue that we fixed it, but China still has a status of a developing nation and they are polluting more than the USA right now, and the people who are so concerned about the environment are going to let them continue to pollute. Actually China already pumps out almost twice as much CO2 as the USA, yet the scientists are going to let this continue for at least 10 years as China won't have to worry about the strict environmental regulations that a "developed" nation has to.

I think there are some serious problems with "science", we have undisbuted global warming because of CO2 yet China is allowed to dump more CO2 than anyone else, by a huge margin (https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/each-countrys-share-co2-emissions).

And they're going to let this go on for at least a decade? If global warming so so serious they would be stepping up to tell China to stop, not to let them continue like this as a developing country. Sorry if this against the rules, I know this stuff is a pretty controversial topic.

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15 hours ago, Tom said:

Over the past several years, the North Hemisphere snow mass index has been running above normal and this year's pace looks to keep that trend.  Iirc, the '17-'18 season held one of the highest readings and that year is being used as an analog.  Could we be establishing a new decadal trend???  Remember, Al Gore informed us that snow was supposed to be a thing of the past...

 

fmi_swe_tracker.jpg

There's a great deal of attention being placed on the warm and bare ocean up north vs the massive displacements of cold and snow due to PV displacements and massive heat transfer from equator to pole this year.

I have a theory,....

Before the Northern hemisphere can recover in terms of ice, you have to insulate the region from warm intrusions. Best way to do that, snow all around it first so the air modifies before it warms the ocean surface and you have ice growth/retention + cold air modification. Albedo and all the other stuff is a given. In other words, very radical stuff.

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I noticed WxBell's analog list for this 1st year Nina included 73-74. In looking at that winter for snowstorms, I was surprised to see that there was a Big Dog storm just (4) days before Christmas that season. Growing up not too far east of KFNT (Flint, MI) indeed their records indicate a 9.5" total that took the depth to a very surprising 13" (T-6" was the Christmas Day norm during my youth). So why didn't I remember a Christmas day with such an impressive snow cover? I was 9 yrs old and certainly should easily stand out in my memory. Digging a little deeper revealed that the old "Nina volatility" was to blame. Similar to 07-08 when snow was plentiful, but melted just as fast as it came. The 8" the morning of 12-25-73 was the deepest of my youth there, but a high of 48F reduced the depth to a tragic 1" by the next morning! Christmas '73 must've been a forgettable slop-fest outside as I enjoyed inside whatever Santa had left under the tree that morning. Even more disgusting was LaFayette, IN which had scored 17.4" and a depth of 19" also found themselves with 1" on the morning of "Boxing Day". Beware the "come and go" nature of the Nina's. Not to mention that in all my snowstorm hunting, snow cover retention seems to be the most difficult winter facet to achieve in this region. I would say, that any time SMI can get a solid 8 weeks of cold and enduring ground cover, that's a memorable season. (outside of the LES belts anyway). Snow did return that January and a snapshot on 1-12-74 shows a nice swath of decent depth across this sub.

 

 

 

1973-12-21 Snow Depth.PNG

1973-12-25 Snow Depth.PNG

1974-01-12 Snow Depth.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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28 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I noticed WxBell's analog list for this 1st year Nina included 73-74. In looking at that winter for snowstorms, I was surprised to see that there was a Big Dog storm just (4) days before Christmas that season. Growing up not too far east of KFNT (Flint, MI) indeed their records indicate a 9.5" total that took the depth to a very surprising 13" (T-6" was the Christmas Day norm during my youth). So why didn't I remember a Christmas day with such an impressive snow cover? I was 9 yrs old and certainly should easily stand out in my memory. Digging a little deeper revealed that the old "Nina volatility" was to blame. Similar to 07-08 when snow was plentiful, but melted just as fast as it came. The 8" the morning of 12-25-73 was the deepest of my youth there, but a high of 48F reduced the depth to a tragic 1" by the next morning! Christmas '73 must've been a forgettable slop-fest outside as I enjoyed inside whatever Santa had left under the tree that morning. Even more disgusting was LaFayette, IN which had scored 17.4" and a depth of 19" also found themselves with 1" on the morning of "Boxing Day". Beware the "come and go" nature of the Nina's. Not to mention that in all my snowstorm hunting, snow cover retention seems to be the most difficult winter facet to achieve in this region. I would say, that any time SMI can get a solid 8 weeks of cold and enduring ground cover, that's a memorable season. (outside of the LES belts anyway). Snow did return that January and a snapshot on 1-12-74 shows a nice swath of decent depth across this sub.

 

 

 

1973-12-21 Snow Depth.PNG

1973-12-25 Snow Depth.PNG

1974-01-12 Snow Depth.PNG

If we do those maps, I'll be taking a leave of absence until April. I won't have anything beneficial to say to another human until then. Lol.

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23 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

If we do those maps, I'll be taking a leave of absence until April. I won't have anything beneficial to say to another human until then. Lol.

I hear ya. It does seem like the cold wants to dive deeper south so far and with 10-11 being "double weighted" you should remain positive buddy. The main reason I chose to write about 73-74 is that pre-Christmas Big Dogs are such a rarity for S. Lakes that it really caught my eye.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

If we do those maps, I'll be taking a leave of absence until April. I won't have anything beneficial to say to another human until then. Lol.

I mean, I love people and whatnot, but being close enough to get the chill, fog and smell off a snowpack like that is getting to be heartbreaking after 4 seasons of it.

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18 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Al Gore predicted there'd be no snow falling on the planet in the year 2020?

Mmmm, I don't seem to remember that one.... Also not sure why you guys refer to Gore so much as if he's THE source of climate change information. I prefer to listen to what the actual majority of the scientific community and their current message says vs whatever Gore was claiming over a decade ago.

Let's be honest here, the doom and gloom forecasts he made never came to fruition.  Obviously, the comment "no snow will fall" is an exaggeration and should not be taken verbatim.  The way Al Gore implemented his beliefs did push the theory that less snow would fall, but in fact, the numbers are trending the other way and the Northern Hemisphere is seeing more snow falling out of the sky.  That's all my post was intended to say.  Hope this clears it up.

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Let's be honest here, the doom and gloom forecasts he made never came to fruition.  Obviously, the comment "no snow will fall" is an exaggeration and should not be taken verbatim.  The way Al Gore implemented his beliefs did push the theory that less snow would fall, but in fact, the numbers are trending the other way and the Northern Hemisphere is seeing more snow falling out of the sky.  That's all my post was intended to say.  Hope this clears it up.

He was a politician. That should say it all.

That being said, otherwise things definitely are going great on the planet.🙄

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Anxiously waiting for the "November Winter Outlooks" to come out......

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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On 10/31/2020 at 1:24 PM, Niko said:

Anxiously waiting for the "November Winter Outlooks" to come out......

This one's from mid-October, but I like their analogs. Can we just run with that snowfall graphic? LOL

Edit-and yes, I cherry pick these!

 

20201011 NEOweather winter outlook analogs.PNG

20201011 NEOweather winter outlook.PNG

Edited by jaster220
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I mean, regardless of "warm earth era", for us here in SMI can it really get much worse than last winter??

 

2019-20 DJF Temp departures.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Speaking of the 1976 cold autumn and record N. Hemisphere snow cover. That following winter gets knocked as not very snowy due to the lack of major hits here. The primary storm track stayed just south of the Mitt (similar to the recent merger rainstorm). But I looked at KBTL's data and beginning November 29th there was 1"+ snow cover for 93 consecutive days and 100+ over the entire season. Depth peaked at a respectable 16" and double digits OTG were seen in both Jan and Feb. So if you like sustained winter, that was a winner in my book. There was ofc the late Jan LES bliz that featured knarly cold and wind-driven snows even if new totals weren't too big outside the "belts" of WMI. And needless to say, the historic cold made it a great winter for ice fisherman, skating rinks, making snow at ski resorts, etc. At my age I'm not a huge fan of endless chill, but I'd take that versus the last few winters around here.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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