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Winter & Spring 2021 Discussion


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12 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Cold air (enough for winter precip- even enough for borderline events so that evap cooling can help at night) -- is a big question. Events will come. Low pressure may even move in prime areas for snowfall IF enough cold air is around. I'am betting that in the next month most of the posters on this forum S of 45N will not see a snow event over 4"- and even so- it will be gone in 2-3 days. If you disagree, I welcome it. Please post as why you think I'am wrong. N of 45- Central / Northern MN, ND, N.WI and the Up are likely in the bullseye - esp the far N of this region IMO. The storms are theirs.

Hoping here around 42N that we can score the 07-08 treatment with 32.5F and +SN. As you mention, snow cover duration was nil but the regular action and overall storminess was awesome for the winter enthusiast. It was basically 13-14 without the bitter cold and lasting depth.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Hoping here around 42N that we can score the 07-08 treatment with 32.5F and +SN. As you mention, snow cover duration was nil but the regular action and overall storminess was awesome for the winter enthusiast. It was basically 13-14 without the bitter cold and lasting depth.

LOL, and digging into this morning's UK a bit that's exactly what it gives me Sunday evening (not sure yet on the snow rate ofc).

Temp and Windchill:

 

20201119 12z UK h84 2m Temps.png

20201119 12z UK h84 2m WC.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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On 11/14/2020 at 12:04 PM, whatitdo said:

Moved to Kalamazoo area pretty recently from the southeast. Always been a huge snow and weather fan, and I'm sure even the worst LEAST of the winters here will exceed what I've been used to (average snowfall per season around 5-8 inches lol, I see it is around 60 inches here). I have one observation and one question.

1) the occasional gales that happen in the fall are fabulous. Makes me appreciate the ferocity of the great lakes that I'm sure are not known to many in the country

2) what consists of a winter storm warning in SW Michigan and how often do you get them in a season? Where I was, this was 3 inches+ (in 12 hours) and 4 inches+ (in 24 hours). Winter weather advisories were 1-3 inches. I've had many bare winters. These were the only winter weather definitions I've been accustomed to and I'm sure there are far more definitions that I'm unfamiliar with (blizzards, lake effect, etc) that I want to get familiar with haha

Apologies if I've posted this in the wrong thread

Again, welcome whatitdo. Hope you don't mind I fixed your post above..  😜

Here are the POR Max snowfall and Max Snow Depths (monthly and seasonal) for KAZO. One caveat is that they ceased to record snowfall at the airport circa mid-1990's. I've been around since 2002 and based on knowledge and more complete data sets W and E of Kzoo I have high confidence that the Nov total was beat in 2018, the Dec total was beat in 2000, and the season total was beat in 08-09. The depth records likely still stand. Data stations west is at Bloomingdale, east is at the Veteran's Hospital NW of Battle Creek. There is also data from the MSU biologic research station at Gull Lake. The set is good for depths, not so complete for total snowfall. 

(1st column is July)

 

Kalamazoo POR Max Snowfall.PNG

Kalamazoo POR Max SN depths.PNG

20201119 SWMI Map.PNG

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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19 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Again, welcome whatitdo.

Here are the POR Max snowfall and Max Snow Depths (monthly and annually) for KAZO. One caveat is that they ceased to record snowfall at the airport circa mid-2000's. I've been around since then and believe nothing since then has likely surpassed the numbers.

 

Kalamazoo POR Max Snowfall.PNG

Kalamazoo POR Max SN depths.PNG

Good stuff, man. I found this tweet rather interesting as well: 

 

In the last 20 years, accumulating snow >1 inch here has happened after December 15th only once back in 2012. Our average date would actually be tomorrow. Seems like we're due soon eh? 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

Good stuff, man. I found this tweet rather interesting as well: 

 

In the last 20 years, accumulating snow >1 inch here has happened after December 15th only once back in 2012. Our average date would actually be tomorrow. Seems like we're due soon eh? 

 

 

Nice find. Say, I was tweaking/finishing my post not expecting you to respond so quickly. Check it out.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I've been poking around this morning and studying all the data and I'm starting to see a trend among the models that suggests a reversal in the overall pattern across North America as we flip the calendar into met Winter.  It's beginning to look like a +PNA pattern is shaping up and that will "fit" to a "T" of what is transpiring in the Strat using the LR forecasting tool I've been accustomed to use.  TBH, it's really encouraging to see the GEFS/CFSv2 both start to advertise the west coast ridge popping.  The EPS is not that far behind as it usually plays "catch up".  I will say, the LR GEFS is looking the best right now at where I believe we are heading.  IMHO, some of the models are busting big time with the blocking next month.  I do believe with strong affirmation, that there will be blocking across NE Canada which will allow a coast-to-coast parade of storm systems in December.  It'll start off slow in the cold dept, but post 5th is when I believe we will see "Winter" begin to set up.  

Below are a couple 5-day mean 500mb maps off the LR GEFS and if you compare the 30mb Strat animation and look at where the blocking sets up at 500mb.  You can't argue where this is going and I'm almost certain the EPS will trend this way as well.  The JMA weeklies from yesterday also flashed this pattern to set up by mid Dec.  To see various models all beginning to look similar, it bodes confidence that this December will be a lot different than years past.  Remember the saying we had back in Sept??  #FlipTheScript

 

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

1.png

2.png

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

I've been poking around this morning and studying all the data and I'm starting to see a trend among the models that suggests a reversal in the overall pattern across North America as we flip the calendar into met Winter.  It's beginning to look like a +PNA pattern is shaping up and that will "fit" to a "T" of what is transpiring in the Strat using the LR forecasting tool I've been accustomed to use.  TBH, it's really encouraging to see the GEFS/CFSv2 both start to advertise the west coast ridge popping.  The EPS is not that far behind as it usually plays "catch up".  I will say, the LR GEFS is looking the best right now at where I believe we are heading.  IMHO, some of the models are busting big time with the blocking next month.  I do believe with strong affirmation, that there will be blocking across NE Canada which will allow a coast-to-coast parade of storm systems in December.  It'll start off slow in the cold dept, but post 5th is when I believe we will see "Winter" begin to set up.  

Below are a couple 5-day mean 500mb maps off the LR GEFS and if you compare the 30mb Strat animation and look at where the blocking sets up at 500mb.  You can't argue where this is going and I'm almost certain the EPS will trend this way as well.  The JMA weeklies from yesterday also flashed this pattern to set up by mid Dec.  To see various models all beginning to look similar, it bodes confidence that this December will be a lot different than years past.  Remember the saying we had back in Sept??  #FlipTheScript

 

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

1.png

2.png

 

 

Thanks Tom, I agree with your thoughts as it lines up well with the LRC.  I know not everything always lines up exactly the same, but the part of the pattern we had from Oct 19th through the end of the month was strong and should repeat through the Winter.  I wanna respect everyone's opinion but the time between the 4th and 15th I believe should get cold and have some artic air very close at least.

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Thanks Tom, I agree with your thoughts as it lines up well with the LRC.  I know not everything always lines up exactly the same, but the part of the pattern we had from Oct 19th through the end of the month was strong and should repeat through the Winter.  I wanna respect everyone's opinion but the time between the 4th and 15th I believe should get cold and have some artic air very close at least.

Your onto something during this period....esp if we get the west coast block, lock over the top into Greenland by the 10th or so you can really start to pool some arctic air south.  Using the LRC, it should be a fun storm tracking period next month before the holidays.  I just hope we don't see friggin' lockdowns!

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Just now, Tom said:

Your onto something during this period....esp if we get the west coast block, lock over the top into Greenland by the 10th or so you can really start to pool some arctic air south.  Using the LRC, it should be a fun storm tracking period next month before the holidays.  I just hope we don't see friggin' lockdowns!

Lock downs are no good.  I agree Dec should start and finish good with a little lull in the middle.  Christmas Day storm???  I have it on my calendar give or take a day.

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17 hours ago, Clinton said:

Lock downs are no good.  I agree Dec should start and finish good with a little lull in the middle.  Christmas Day storm???  I have it on my calendar give or take a day.

By looking at tonight's map, they've even locked-down active weather.

THIS is 3rd week of November??

 

20201121 NWS CONUS Hazards.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I agree with both Clinton and Tom. I think it's as clear cut as could be. I think I get an early taste on 29th and 30th of this month still yet.

Not saying Tom's call for some cold and storm action in December isn't happening, but I think Grizz may have a valid argument too. We've been discussing the mood swings of La Nina's and citing the 07-08 example of active with marginal cold. While some want to say 13-14 is an analog, I'm having a difficult time believing the cold can rock-n-lock across the lower 48. Then we have 98-99 which was overall very mild and much below normal snowfall, with a 2 week stretch in the first half of January of legendary stature saving what surely would've been a serious dud season. I remember thinking '99 was off to an awesome start, even tho we'd had to wait all through a very warm December. But just as quickly as it went big, winter slumped back into it's relaxed phase, only re-appearing for a brief 4 days in March. Heck it hit 72F in Feb at KBTL. Perhaps Tom's call plays out and the 2-week bonanza targets December vs January this time. We'll have to wait and see.

Top analogs by order of preference (of similar winter season):

1) 2010-11   2) 2007-08   3) 1998-99   4) 2017-18

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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8 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I agree with both Clinton and Tom. I think it's as clear cut as could be. I think I get an early taste on 29th and 30th of this month still yet.

It's going to be hard to get anything this month but Dec will turn colder fast.  Artic front should move through on the 8th and the part of the pattern that produced a historic ice storm in Oklahoma is due in right after that.  Did you get any ice out of that or was it off to your west?

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

It's going to be hard to get anything this month but Dec will turn colder fast.  Artic front should move through on the 8th and the part of the pattern that produced a historic ice storm in Oklahoma is due in right after that.  Did you get any ice out of that or was it off to your west?

Over the last week, I've been watching the trends in the modeling across western NAMER and they are all trending in the right direction for Winter to begin to make it's presence felt as we flip the calendar into met Winter.  Overall, I like where we may be heading, in fact, there may be a late month southern stream storm cutting up towards the S MW/OHV that could lay down some snow around the GL's/MW.  The Euro has been flashing a storm and the EPS members showing more wintry scenarios.  I've had my target period of Dec 5th for real winter to make its way down into the Lower 48 and your storm target date of the 8th is making sense.  The East Asian rule and LRC are lining up.

Not only is the 500mb pattern lining up, but we have some interesting trends with regards to the Polar Vortex.  The Euro is suggesting it may slide its way towards North America as we find ourselves with a peculiar set up as a Scandinavian warming event "pushes" it over onto our side of the Pole or at least a lobe of it.

1.png

 

The flip in the PNA pattern is nice to see and which gets rid of that pesky SER...blocking is also growing in the high lats among the modeling. So, we find ourselves with a lot of variables that may be seemingly coming together for December.

 

2.png

 

I'll end this post with the animation below that confirms what has been consistently showing up on the 48hr GEFS 500mb trends...Western NAMER ridging = Eastern CONUS Trough...

 

gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_fh144-372.gif

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

It's going to be hard to get anything this month but Dec will turn colder fast.  Artic front should move through on the 8th and the part of the pattern that produced a historic ice storm in Oklahoma is due in right after that.  Did you get any ice out of that or was it off to your west?

Stayed west, thankfully. I'm pretty nervous that is what I'll get next, but I hope not.

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Over the last week, I've been watching the trends in the modeling across western NAMER and they are all trending in the right direction for Winter to begin to make it's presence as we flip the calendar into met Winter.  Overall, I like where we may be heading, in fact, there may be a late month southern stream storm cutting up towards the S MW/OHV that could lay down some snow around the GL's/MW.  The Euro has been flashing a storm and the EPS members showing more wintry scenarios.  I've had my target period of Dec 5th for real winter to make its way down into the Lower 48 and your storm target date of the 8th is making sense.  The East Asian rule and LRC are lining up.

Not only is the 500mb pattern lining up, but we have some interesting trends with regards to the Polar Vortex.  The Euro is suggesting it may slide its way towards North America as we find ourselves with a peculiar set up as a Scandinavian warming event "pushes" it over onto our side of the Pole or at least a lobe of it.

1.png

 

The flip in the PNA pattern is nice to see and which gets rid of that pesky SER...blocking is also growing in the high lats among the modeling. So, we find ourselves with a lot of variables that may be seemingly coming together for December.

 

2.png

 

I'll end this post with the animation below that confirms what has been consistently showing up on the 48hr GEFS 500mb trends...Western NAMER ridging = Eastern CONUS Trough...

 

gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_fh144-372.gif

Of the top analogs, I think only '98 failed to deliver some decent to good winter in December. 3 of the 4 I listed anyways, the active Nina's, not the two duds that have been included in some lists. The odds are in your favor is what I'm getting at and I'm remaining hopeful that not only do we "flip the script" for December, but we see enough repeating of the pattern on through JFM to make this more than a one month winter. I did notice the 21/0z Euro run with another wind-making 987 mb SLP over Lk. Huron next Sunday-ish. Looks like it could be the UP's first good storm, delivering a pretty good shot at wrap-around LES showers across the Mitt. Gotta get the rest of my decorations outside.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Of the top analogs, I think only '98 failed to deliver some decent to good winter in December. 3 of the 4 I listed anyways, the active Nina's, not the two duds that have been included in some lists. The odds are in your favor is what I'm getting at and I'm remaining hopeful that not only do we "flip the script" for December, but we see enough repeating of the pattern on through JFM to make this more than a one month winter. I did notice the 21/0z Euro run with another wind-making 987 mb SLP over Lk. Huron next Sunday-ish. Looks like it could be the UP's first good storm, delivering a pretty good shot at wrap-around LES showers across the Mitt. Gotta get the rest of my decorations outside.

Yes, I do believe this could very well be a promising month for most of us, but I'm concerned for those out west in the Plains states.  The first half of December may not be that favorable for those out west and north, but then I think it'll be more or less "share the wealth" by mid month.  The best outcome would be for all of us to share some Snow OTG for the holidays.  Heck, even a near average month of Dec would be a blessing more most of us across the eastern/southern Sub given what we had to endure the last 3+ years.

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Per latest guidance with Euro weeklies and long range  Euro/EPS and GFS-GEFS/ CPC among others--- for early/mid DEC (which I do believe have serious merit for Plains states (W IA into NEB--- areas E have better chance)--- Tom Petty nailed it with  the chance of a cold/snowy DEC--- "You don't come around here anymore"--- If you don't agree, at least enjoy a great tune.

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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On 11/21/2020 at 11:45 AM, Tom said:

Yes, I do believe this could very well be a promising month for most of us, but I'm concerned for those out west in the Plains states.  The first half of December may not be that favorable for those out west and north, but then I think it'll be more or less "share the wealth" by mid month.  The best outcome would be for all of us to share some Snow OTG for the holidays.  Heck, even a near average month of Dec would be a blessing more most of us across the eastern/southern Sub given what we had to endure the last 3+ years.

Just been the past 2 Dec's over here, as we had the pair of snowy ones bookended by 2 pairs of duds. But I know Chicago was just west of the action in 2016 and a bit less so in 2017. The cold and snow right at Christmas Eve/Day 3 years back was Currier and Ives gorgeous here! And it stayed cold that entire holiday week, a true rarity anymore.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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6 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Per latest guidance with Euro weeklies and long range  Euro/EPS and GFS-GEFS/ CPC among others--- for early/mid DEC (which I do believe have serious merit for Plains states (W IA into NEB--- areas E have better chance)--- Tom Petty nailed it with  the chance of a cold/snowy DEC--- "You don't come around here anymore"--- If you don't agree, at least enjoy a great tune.

 

Give it up...Stop😆

 

 

Hoping the move north still gets me a winter.

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More updated and final Winter outlooks should be coming soon.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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From PP at Accu-WX- (guy is actually pretty good, been following him for sometime).

 

Here is a look at December Temperatures.

We made some changes to the December forecast, but keep in mind that based on Sunday's run of the models, this forecast is not cool enough in the South and warm enough in the Great Lakes. However, today's run has no idea what to do with the potential merging storm track late this week into early next week. The place and strengthen of the merger will determine the intensity and length of the cold shot that follows.

December 2020 temperature forecast made on Nov. 11

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December 2020 temperature forecast made on Nov. 23

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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West Michigan Met's winter outlook. Has BN snowfall but says FEB will rock similar to 10-11. Calling for 55" in Battle Creek which is 3" LESS than last season. LOL, so much for Nina rescuing our sorry-a$$ winters of late.

https://www.woodtv.com/bills-blog-2/bills-blog-what-will-winter-2020-2021-look-like/

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Took a very quick glance at the Euro Weeklies from yesterday and they have suddenly flipped back to "winter mode" for practically everyone one here.  The blocking showing up in all the right places and "hooking over the top" certainly bodes well for our Sub.  I like the trends.  Speaking of this, the model is picking up on a sweet storm track over the next 30 days.  The GL's should ignite the LES machine sometime around the end of Week 2 into 3.  I do see the potential for a "snow hole" developing near the Dakota's due to a more dominant southern stream storm track.  

 

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38 minutes ago, Tom said:

Took a very quick glance at the Euro Weeklies from yesterday and they have suddenly flipped back to "winter mode" for practically everyone one here.  The blocking showing up in all the right places and "hooking over the top" certainly bodes well for our Sub.  I like the trends.  Speaking of this, the model is picking up on a sweet storm track over the next 30 days.  The GL's should ignite the LES machine sometime around the end of Week 2 into 3.  I do see the potential for a "snow hole" developing near the Dakota's due to a more dominant southern stream storm track.  

 

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Nice looking storm showing up at the end of the 0z Euro.  10 days out we shall see if it holds.

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Took a very quick glance at the Euro Weeklies from yesterday and they have suddenly flipped back to "winter mode" for practically everyone one here.  The blocking showing up in all the right places and "hooking over the top" certainly bodes well for our Sub.  I like the trends.  Speaking of this, the model is picking up on a sweet storm track over the next 30 days.  The GL's should ignite the LES machine sometime around the end of Week 2 into 3.  I do see the potential for a "snow hole" developing near the Dakota's due to a more dominant southern stream storm track.  

 

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You are ever the optimist, I will give you that.  For example, this map shows Chicago getting 6 inches of snowfall over 30 days.  That hardly seems like something to get excited about.

Southeast Alaska and British Columbia look to be on the receiving end of a near constant barrage of storms and will get dumped with rain and snow.  This usually floods the CONUS with warm pacific air and leads to warmth across the country.          

That snow hole for the dakotas and eastern montana is more a reflection of climate.  I would hazard a guess that unless there is a major storm forecast within Day 7, that hole will most always show up on a long range ensemble map.  

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5 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

You are ever the optimist, I will give you that.  For example, this map shows Chicago getting 6 inches of snowfall over 30 days.  That hardly seems like something to get excited about.

Southeast Alaska and British Columbia look to be on the receiving end of a near constant barrage of storms and will get dumped with rain and snow.  This usually floods the CONUS with warm pacific air and leads to warmth across the country.          

That snow hole for the dakotas and eastern montana is more a reflection of climate.  I would hazard a guess that unless there is a major storm forecast within Day 7, that hole will most always show up on a long range ensemble map.  

Back in the middle part of Autumn and into November the Euro Weeklies definitely saw the N Stream being dominant and never indicated much, if any, wintry precip across the S MW/Lower Lakes region.  This time, however, it is signaling a S Stream storm track due to the blocking evolving that the model "missed", esp the big bust that is forthcoming in practically ALL the climate models near Greenland.  Look how much the models have trended in recent days of a -NAO/-AO pattern to open up December.  I'm optimistic because all the LR clues I look for are indeed coming into fruition.  I'm def not wish casting

 

BTW, a 6-7" mean in Chicago is normal in the snow dept and if you saw the EPS Control run, it lays down Feet of snow by end of December for a lot of the MW/Lower Lakes.  The signal is there for some real action down farther south when all the action was up north due to a strong SER.  This has reversed course and its time to deliver the goods farther south I guess.  Let's see what happens...but I'll be honest, there is a favorable pattern shaping up.

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41 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I know these index's can be sketchy out past 5 days but this looks much better as we enter Dec.

Ensemble Mean AO Outlook
Ensemble Mean NAO Outlook

That's what I like to see...I bet it grows deeper as we head deeper into December.  The Greenland Block is gonna rock.

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Here is the updated long range guess from Paul Pastrelok at Accuweather

"Northeast, mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, eastern Ohio Valley – The La Nina pattern eases early to midmonth with the southern branch stronger as an upper high pressure area builds from the Canadian and Rockies to the central Prairies forcing a storm track south. As cold fronts move swiftly in the north with less precipitation, the southern storms will move slower and bring wetter conditions. Occasionally we will have a merge of the two storm tracks and possibly a bigger storm for the Northeast and lake-effect snowfall with brief, cold bursts behind storms. The pattern will warm into the second part of the month, but a faster northern storm track could lead to a more back-and-forth pattern late month (moderate to higher confidence)."

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Just now, westMJim said:

Here is the updated long range guess from Paul Pastrelok at Accuweather

"Northeast, mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, eastern Ohio Valley – The La Nina pattern eases early to midmonth with the southern branch stronger as an upper high pressure area builds from the Canadian and Rockies to the central Prairies forcing a storm track south. As cold fronts move swiftly in the north with less precipitation, the southern storms will move slower and bring wetter conditions. Occasionally we will have a merge of the two storm tracks and possibly a bigger storm for the Northeast and lake-effect snowfall with brief, cold bursts behind storms. The pattern will warm into the second part of the month, but a faster northern storm track could lead to a more back-and-forth pattern late month (moderate to higher confidence)."

And for out to the west of my area

"Western Ohio Valley, Midwest, northern Plains – Chilly shots will have a little more impact in eastern areas rather than western areas first half of the month, then switches just past mid-month. Temperature departures in the 11- to 15-day to the 16- to 20-day periods can run 6-10 degrees above normal as an upper high floats around this region. For the second half of the month, the upper high will split, part over eastern Canada and over the Southwest. The storm track will return from the northern Rockies into the Plains and occasional cold shots can bring down temperatures departures. How much of a drop in temperatures will depend on building snowpack, which we favor later in the month (moderate confidence)"

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56 minutes ago, Tom said:

That's what I like to see...I bet it grows deeper as we head deeper into December.  The Greenland Block is gonna rock.

It surely needs to get colder than it's been or it's no bueno for the Lwr Lakes despite a good track. Hoping things can come together. I miss legit storms after nearly five years since any one system delivered dbl digits and that was the warm Nino storm so the first 8" melted down to about 4" and it never really felt like a 10" hit. GHD-2 was last time so after nearly 6 years I'm getting a bit impatient with misses in every direction tbh.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Bill Steffens who is a Grand Rapids tv meteorologist has his winter guess out and his thinking is that there will be less snow fall then average in west Michigan. He is calling for around 68" at Grand Rapids, 66 inches at Kalamazoo, 55" at Battle Creek, 78" at Muskegon and 85" at Holland. We shall see how this plays out. In past years he has over guessed. 

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16 hours ago, westMJim said:

Bill Steffens who is a Grand Rapids tv meteorologist has his winter guess out and his thinking is that there will be less snow fall then average in west Michigan. He is calling for around 68" at Grand Rapids, 66 inches at Kalamazoo, 55" at Battle Creek, 78" at Muskegon and 85" at Holland. We shall see how this plays out. In past years he has over guessed. 

Yeah, not to steal your thunder but I posted a link to his outlook already 2 days ago. Interesting when the NWS people are calling for above avg snowfall. Most usually it's the other way around.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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8 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah, not to steal your thunder but I posted a link to his outlook already 2 days ago. Interesting when the NWS people are calling for above avg snowfall. Most usually it's the other way around.

Sorry I did not see you post. Anyway I guess Bill is now on record to see how this winter plays out. I can not remember when the last time he made a below average snow fall guess. I still think that with the lakes this warm we could get a big lake event if we get the right cold front come thur in the next 2 to 3 weeks. 

 

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