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Winter & Spring 2021 Discussion


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On 11/19/2020 at 4:51 AM, Grizzcoat said:

 I rarely post on long range- and I'am cold/snow biased- so take that into account . I will admit it.

Without posting maps (as Iam sure many look  at and what Beltrami posted in the other thread) things are not looking good (if you like winter) for the next several weeks at least-- maybe imo, through most of DEC, if not into JAN.  Systems will roll through but likely without enough cold air to produce winter precip outside of maybe the far North. IMO- the longevity of the tropical season (not totally shut down btw) with the LA nina in place is more akin to back loaded winters (if you wanna call it that- I don't- as I see winter over (starting?)  by Jan 15th or so with rapidly increasing sun angle and daylight- especially here in IA) -- I see an overall  winter - in the best like 98-99. That's a stretch at this juncture... For sure a DEC to remember for (cold and snow) is again not going to happen and WHAT you want to build on cold and snow. It may get winter like in FEB/MARCH like it has the past several years (out of many)  , but this winter is looking blah at BEST-- and FTR- I've done long range forecasting in the past for ski resorts (Lutsen Mtns in MN  in the early 2010's) .. I just don't see "real" winter this season until sometime after Jan 15th for many reading this S of 45N latitude. I hope i'am wrong of course but the trends and setups of teleconnections don't look favorable until maybe late winter. Carry on.

Just a note to what I posted nearly 10 days ago. It's basically come to fruition. I do hope I'am wrong about mid DEC and that it does turn cold/snowy around the 12th. Need -AO big time AND enough moisture. Tough to do.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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On 11/27/2020 at 11:37 AM, Grizzcoat said:

Just a note to what I posted nearly 10 days ago. It's basically come to fruition. I do hope I'am wrong about mid DEC and that it does turn cold/snowy around the 12th. Need -AO big time AND enough moisture. Tough to do.

I'm in agreement with you. You also did an excellent job of explaining your views and qualifying yourself in explaining it. Well done. I have appreciation for that.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

For those who are interested Gary Lezak will be releasing his winter forecast this evening at 6:30, I will try to post updates.

Thanks amigo!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Gary Lezak has released his Winter forecast and there are no big surprises.  He did confirm the cycle length in this forecast (46-50) days.  This forecast is for KC but I think it is relevant for a lot of us on the western half of the sub.  I do believe he will give more of a national outlook in his blog either later on tonight or in his blog tomorrow.  I'm curious where he believes the hot spots are this year (if any).

Posted at 12:00 PM, Dec 03, 2020
 
and last updated 12:00 PM, Dec 03, 2020

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Winter is on the way and the weather pattern is now set for the season.

It is looking like a winter that will have two or three seven to 10-day stretches of very cold and stormy weather, and then even longer stretches of drier and milder weather. So, overall we are predicting a milder winter.

There is a developing La Niña, which is the cooling of the Tropical Pacific Ocean. This is the exact opposite of El Niño. When the waters cool, influences on regions far away from the tropics happen. And, Kansas City is already seeing some influence from this developing La Niña, and Lindsey Anderson discusses this in-depth in her La Niña story.

La Niña is just one piece of the bigger picture.

Recent Stories from kshb.com

There is a complex puzzle in the river of air flowing above us that causes our storm systems. The centerpiece of this puzzle is the LRC, which allows us to predict when and where storm systems will strike.
 

In this year’s LRC, we have only identified only a few storm systems capable of producing snow. There aren't too many parts of this cycling weather pattern that have shown the capability of being cold and stormy at the same time. So, as a result, our weather team is predicting below-average snowfall this winter.

There are other factors that are considered. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is one of the pieces of that complex puzzle. If the AO dips negative, then a stormy and cold stretch is more likely. When it rises to higher positive levels, long dry and mild stretches are more likely. So, far, early in the season, the AO has been more positive, and is likely the reason it has been so mild in November. We do think there will be a couple of dips to the negative AO territory, and this will lead to our stormier stretches later on this winter.

Overall, we are forecasting below-average snowfall, near to below-average rainfall, and near average temperatures.

Our weather team is predicting 16.3” of snow. Gary Lezak's prediction is 15.5”. Wes Peery is predicting 13.7”. Lindsey Anderson is going with 17”. Jeff Penner is predicting 19”. Average the predictions out, and we end up with that 16.3” total.

When a winter storm shows up, we will be letting you know far in advance and preparing you for winter weather. Remember that first snow in October? That part of the pattern will cycle through around December 10th to 15th, and again in late January, and one more time in early to mid-March, according to the LRC. There will be a couple other parts of this cycling pattern that will produce possible winter storms as well, but in between there will be long dry and mild stretches.

Have a great holiday season, and stay with 41 Action News, and we will keep you advised.

Copyright 2020 Scripps Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

R

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@ClintonThanks for posting Gary's winter outlook. That was pretty much what I expected for our area anyway. Precip has been hard to come by on the Kansas side of late so I wasn't expecting anything too epic. STILL...this is mother nature so ya just never know! 😉

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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11 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

@ClintonThanks for posting Gary's winter outlook. That was pretty much what I expected for our area anyway. Precip has been hard to come by on the Kansas side of late so I wasn't expecting anything too epic. STILL...this is mother nature so ya just never know! 😉

We definitely need to cash in on this upcoming storm cuz it's clearly one of the few that is targeting our area after that we have a good chance of one between Christmas and New Years. Imo those are our 2 of the 3 or 4 storms in each cycle we have a shot at.

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10 hours ago, Clinton said:

Gary Lezak has released his Winter forecast and there are no big surprises.  He did confirm the cycle length in this forecast (46-50) days.  This forecast is for KC but I think it is relevant for a lot of us on the western half of the sub.  I do believe he will give more of a national outlook in his blog either later on tonight or in his blog tomorrow.  I'm curious where he believes the hot spots are this year (if any).

Posted at 12:00 PM, Dec 03, 2020
 
and last updated 12:00 PM, Dec 03, 2020

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Winter is on the way and the weather pattern is now set for the season.

It is looking like a winter that will have two or three seven to 10-day stretches of very cold and stormy weather, and then even longer stretches of drier and milder weather. So, overall we are predicting a milder winter.

There is a developing La Niña, which is the cooling of the Tropical Pacific Ocean. This is the exact opposite of El Niño. When the waters cool, influences on regions far away from the tropics happen. And, Kansas City is already seeing some influence from this developing La Niña, and Lindsey Anderson discusses this in-depth in her La Niña story.

La Niña is just one piece of the bigger picture.

Recent Stories from kshb.com

There is a complex puzzle in the river of air flowing above us that causes our storm systems. The centerpiece of this puzzle is the LRC, which allows us to predict when and where storm systems will strike.
 

In this year’s LRC, we have only identified only a few storm systems capable of producing snow. There aren't too many parts of this cycling weather pattern that have shown the capability of being cold and stormy at the same time. So, as a result, our weather team is predicting below-average snowfall this winter.

There are other factors that are considered. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is one of the pieces of that complex puzzle. If the AO dips negative, then a stormy and cold stretch is more likely. When it rises to higher positive levels, long dry and mild stretches are more likely. So, far, early in the season, the AO has been more positive, and is likely the reason it has been so mild in November. We do think there will be a couple of dips to the negative AO territory, and this will lead to our stormier stretches later on this winter.

Overall, we are forecasting below-average snowfall, near to below-average rainfall, and near average temperatures.

Our weather team is predicting 16.3” of snow. Gary Lezak's prediction is 15.5”. Wes Peery is predicting 13.7”. Lindsey Anderson is going with 17”. Jeff Penner is predicting 19”. Average the predictions out, and we end up with that 16.3” total.

When a winter storm shows up, we will be letting you know far in advance and preparing you for winter weather. Remember that first snow in October? That part of the pattern will cycle through around December 10th to 15th, and again in late January, and one more time in early to mid-March, according to the LRC. There will be a couple other parts of this cycling pattern that will produce possible winter storms as well, but in between there will be long dry and mild stretches.

Have a great holiday season, and stay with 41 Action News, and we will keep you advised.

Copyright 2020 Scripps Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

R

Thanks for sharing this info...Initially, I thought the LRC length was going to be a little longer but once I saw the models showing that cut-off trough in the SW for this coming weekend it solidified my thoughts as well that the late Oct pattern was cycling.  There are a lot of storms this season that tracked into the "slot" down near the TX Panhandle/OK region.  When these storms do cycle back, in order for the southern tier to cash in on snow, the high lats gotta block up or this winter will be another dud.  I'm just hoping that after the SSW event later this month it shuffles the atmosphere around and in time for the holidays.  I don't know what I'll do if we have to endure another torchy Christmas!

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Thanks for sharing this info...Initially, I thought the LRC length was going to be a little longer but once I saw the models showing that cut-off trough in the SW for this coming weekend it solidified my thoughts as well that the late Oct pattern was cycling.  There are a lot of storms this season that tracked into the "slot" down near the TX Panhandle/OK region.  When these storms do cycle back, in order for the southern tier to cash in on snow, the high lats gotta block up or this winter will be another dud.  I'm just hoping that after the SSW event later this month it shuffles the atmosphere around and in time for the holidays.  I don't know what I'll do if we have to endure another torchy Christmas!

 

 

 

 

I can give you guys another issue with this warm, snowless pattern.  Stores that sell snow blowers, shovels, ice melt, etc. are really struggling.  If it wasn't bad enough during much of the pandemic, now the weather doesn't cooperate for them to sell these items.  The local Ace Hardware says they can't get rid of any winter weather equipment.  They are not doing very well financially from what I can see.  They had already laid off employees before this.  Not good at all.  I get mad at the lack of storms, but my livelihood is not tied too if we can get snow, ice, cold, etc.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Gary Lezak has released a more in depth Winter forecast with more of a Nation look.  Real good read imo.

https://www.kshb.com/weather/weather-blog-the-winter-forecast-in-depth

Appreciate amigo! 👍

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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On 11/7/2020 at 6:42 AM, Tom said:

I'm going to post some maps from the latest Euro seasonal and go over what they are showing.  First off, I do NOT believe it's Nov forecast as it is likely to warm for the southern tier of our Sub and likely to dry for the central states.

November...

1.png

2.png

 

In December, it's starting to see the Greenland Block that I believe has a good shot at popping this winter.  Does it happen in December??  That's a good question.  What signals are out there that could support such a pattern in the N Atlantic???  Well, I go to my 10mb/30mb maps to see if there is any warming ongoing in that part of the world.  In fact, there is...in recent days, a blossoming warm pool has been forming and I'd like to see if this is a brief blip or something more longer duration and scale...

The last few frames may be advertising a chance for blocking to develop near Greenland and Scandinavia late November into December. If both of these potential blocks can lock, the December outlook will look different.

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

3.png

Could you see that much warmth in North America???? I think not....Euro drinking to much of its warm bias....no chance it's that warm, esp with a warm pocket in NE Canada.  Western Canada is likely to be frigid based on the overall pattern that is setting up now and will last well into early Spring, IMHO.

 

4.png

5.png

 

 

So, the anticipated changes in the Euro Seasonal are showing up on this run.  Instead of a large AK/Yukon/NW Territories trough, it has shifted west this run along with a deeper Aleutian Low allowing for more ridging across W NAMER.  The N ATL Block and Greenland Block have both grown resulting in a EC trough.  Is this believable?  Assuming the teleconnections that the models are now spitting out and this forecasted 500mb pattern, it certainly is plausible.  With the understanding of the warm bias this model has, seeing the model cool off so much this run gives me some idea that its seeing a colder month ahead for the eastern CONUS.  Will we start seeing the rest of the LR models picking up on the Blocking, thus resulting in deeper troughs across the eastern CONUS??  This is what I'll be looking for over the next week.  

1.png

 

2.png

 

Here is the Dec 500mb N HEM map...

3.png

 

Now, comparing to last months run, January is trending in the same direction...stronger Scandinavian Block and I anticipate the model seeing more blocking near AK/Greenland next run which will shift the Polar Vortex farther south and more into central Canada.  That's my vision for Jan '21.

4.png

5.png

 

 

 

 

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Deedler's outlook summary for Detroit/SEMI..

Quote

Winter Outlook:

Temperatures and Snowfall:

Most analogue winters averaged normal to slightly below with an average sitting at 26.5 (30 year norm @ 27.9 or -1.4 below). Taking into account the more recent La Nina winters - Modoki La Nina winters- computer guidance and recent trends; I surmise the average of the winter analogues are on the cooler side and therefore; I look for a normal to above normal temperature winter. This is both for the winter (Dec-Feb) and cold season (Nov-Mar). The analogues contained front-end loaded, mid-loaded or back-end loaded winters regarding temperatures (coldest relative to norms) and snowfall (relative to averages). There were twice as many snowier winters (8/4) as there were snowless (see analogues and legends below). Potential for a major snowstorm or two in the snowy La Nina analogues was slightly greater in every month Dec-Mar with a lean toward late season.

 

In descending order; back-end loaded (roughly late Jan-Mar) winters were favored in regard to colder temperature and/or heavier snowfall with front-end loaded (roughly mid Nov-to late Jan) second. There were just a hand-full of cold Decembers, Januarys and Februarys which helps gives more credence to a sharply colder month or period mentioned earlier. On the flip-side; chances of mild periods increase with time with February looking the best.

And one more thing; there are enough well below normal (or "snowless") months that showed up in every set of analogues to be concerned about a bust on the snowfall prediction but I'll hang tough with the normal to above - for the time being anyway. 

Our Nina going "Modoki" is not the best look on the temps regime (basically what we're seeing now), and the variability from snowless to amazing sounds about right (see 98-99). I do like the odds of a Major event he mentions (hello 98-99 again) and the "polar express" as seen in 13-14. It's a nicely written piece.

Full write-up:

https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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8 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Deedler's outlook summary for Detroit/SEMI..

Our Nina going "Modoki" is not the best look on the temps regime (basically what we're seeing now), and the variability from snowless to amazing sounds about right (see 98-99). I do like the odds of a Major event he mentions (hello 98-99 again) and the "polar express" as seen in 13-14. It's a nicely written piece.

Full write-up:

https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/

Great search bud!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Comments from a LOT Met's post elsewhere about their winter outlook. Seems he's fond of 98-99 as our best hope like myself..

Quote

In our local winter outlook (NWS LOT), we leaned warmer (actually got a nastygram from CPC for going against their temperature outlook 2 winters ago so we didn't explicitly say warmer than normal), and AN precip, which has strongest signal in Ninas. Since December is leaning dry, we should get most of our winter precip in J-F.

 

Snow wise, think somehow we'll end up within range of normal. Last year was crappy as we all know and it eeked out just slightly below normal, though did have a head start from late Oct-Nov events. We're overdue for an area wide higher end warning event, so hoping we get 1 or 2 systems to track favorably. Figure if we do get into a more classic Niña pattern, we can manage to get one to work out ala 1999.

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Yes!  The CPC site has updated their Arctic Oscillation site and what I'm seeing is defining the model support towards a +EPO overall through at least the next 2 weeks.  If you gauge the "look" at both 10mb/50mb across W NAMER from Nov 25th through Dec 5th, you can see the reason why there will be a wave train inundating AK/W NAMER through the extended, however, towards the end of the animation below, you can see the massive bulge growing over the N PAC/Aleutian Islands.  This is a major clue to look for ridging to build in this region by roughly Dec 20th and steadily creep east towards the North American coastline.  In essence, I believe the raging +EPO will subside towards the end of December allowing for major cold to begin infiltrating down western NAMER initially, and then seep into the northern/central Sub allow for a SW Flow pattern to develop.

 

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

Northern Hemisphere 50 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

Interestingly, yesterday's Euro Weeklies have backed away from the W NAMER trough and trended more towards the way I explained above.  More ridging off the west coast of the U.S. will aid in funneling colder air into the pattern.

Previous run...

1.png

 

Current Run...I like the "look" the model is trending towards by the Winter Solstice period and into the Christmas holiday.

2.png

 

Now, the big question will be, what happens over the next week or so, as that will determine the extent of the ridging near the Aleutians and also W NAMER.  If the Euro is correct, I can see the model reverse course in the EPO department by end of the month into Jan.  At the very least, the EPO should trend towards neutral by months end.  The maps below are HUGE signals that a weakening in the PV is likely and if the high latitude blocking remains in tact, Winter is without a doubt coming down into the lower 48.

 

3.png

4.png

 

I'll end this post with the Euro Weeklies 30-day snow mean map...the signal is present for many "opportunities" that are about to begin, signaling a more active pattern beginning the Week of the 13th which has been my longstanding idea.

6.png

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At the time of writing the post above, the 30mb maps were not updated but has since done so.  Needless to say, it looks very positive for the overall pattern across the NE PAC.  It also does not look like the URAL's/Scandinavian Block will be going away anytime soon. 

 

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

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Man the long range forecast in this thread changes every few days it seems. Everything keeps getting put off or changing from week to week. 

Can we all say it's a crap shoot to forecast anything long range seasonally at this point? Seriously, go back and read this thread to see the yo-yo forecasts for the long range. The long range forecasts should only be taken as entertainment purposes!😁

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15 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Man the long range forecast in this thread changes every few days it seems. Everything keeps getting put off or changing from week to week. 

Can we all say it's a crap shoot to forecast anything long range seasonally at this point? Seriously, go back and read this thread to see the yo-yo forecasts for the long range. The long range forecasts should only be taken as entertainment purposes!😁

LR forecasting is so difficult, most Met's don't even touch it. It's a tough nut to crack but I appreciate anyone who tries, including Tom's methods whether right or wrong in the end, it's a good learning experience wrt pattern drivers and such.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Are we done w the extended Winter outlooks, or are they still coming in. I am thinking that it should be a rap soon, if not already by now. Is there a deadline w any particular outlook.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I will look on my walk today but there have been reports of dandelions in bloom. That happened last December as well and I have a picture that I took of a dandelion in bloom on Christmas day last year. With Sundays high of 31 that was the first time since February 28th that was 281 days of temperatures of 33 or better and according to Bill Stiffen that is a top ten. At this time it is cloudy and 37 here at my house. The picture of the dandelion is from last year not this year and it was taken on Christmas day.

IMG_0671 (1).JPG

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18 hours ago, Tom said:

At the time of writing the post above, the 30mb maps were not updated but has since done so.  Needless to say, it looks very positive for the overall pattern across the NE PAC.  It also does not look like the URAL's/Scandinavian Block will be going away anytime soon. 

 

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

Thats gotta erupt over the pole or "through the top" or we're going right back to warm boring crap after...

Will be a short lived winter if that domino doesn't fall.

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16 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Man the long range forecast in this thread changes every few days it seems. Everything keeps getting put off or changing from week to week. 

Can we all say it's a crap shoot to forecast anything long range seasonally at this point? Seriously, go back and read this thread to see the yo-yo forecasts for the long range. The long range forecasts should only be taken as entertainment purposes!😁

I do my writing with the knowledge that it is guessing with research and hope mixed with luck.

I called out both ways it could go this time and why my guess would be wrong, if I was, this time. I hope that didn't appear to be double minded but I try to please everyone. I fail. Lol.

My bet for a roaring 6 week block in the middle is still alive. Option one was a hit and hold type but that ship sailed a month ago and I haven't revived that hope or hype.

*The strat warming event should put the nail in the huge warm ups and massive US ridging*

Winter is still coming. Delayed, not denied. 

My 2c...

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8 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I do my writing with the knowledge that it is guessing with research and hope mixed with luck.

I called out both ways it could go this time and why my guess would be wrong, if I was, this time. I hope that didn't appear to be double minded but I try to please everyone. I fail. Lol.

My bet for a roaring 6 week block in the middle is still alive. Option one was a hit and hold type but that ship sailed a month ago and I haven't revived that hope or hype.

*The strat warming event should put the nail in the huge warm ups and massive US ridging*

Winter is still coming. Delayed, not denied. 

My 2c...

75-76 was good "just north" of here, scoring about 24-30" more within the pair of snowy months. If cold does show, I could allow that analog to still be in play. However, attm I'm still leaning heavily on a 98-99 more brief mini-winter spell surrounded by more of this 11-12 style treatment.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

75-76 was good "just north" of here, scoring about 24-30" more within the pair of snowy months. If cold does show, I could allow that analog to still be in play. However, attm I'm still leaning heavily on a 98-99 more brief mini-winter spell surrounded by more of this 11-12 style treatment.

I'm calling it now man - based solely on this gloom feeling in my stomach I have right now, I predict snowfall will be even lower than 2011-2012. Would love to be wrong about this. But the temperatures just always seem to be a tad too warm, even by December standards. 

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10 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I do my writing with the knowledge that it is guessing with research and hope mixed with luck.

I called out both ways it could go this time and why my guess would be wrong, if I was, this time. I hope that didn't appear to be double minded but I try to please everyone. I fail. Lol.

My bet for a roaring 6 week block in the middle is still alive. Option one was a hit and hold type but that ship sailed a month ago and I haven't revived that hope or hype.

*The strat warming event should put the nail in the huge warm ups and massive US ridging*

Winter is still coming. Delayed, not denied. 

My 2c...

This is a winter weather forum, so no one should be surprised when basically all the forecasts done on here and on other winter weather forum sites are looking through rose(white) colored glasses. It's just like going to your favorite sports team's forum and seeing so many declare every year their team is going to win the World Series or Superbowl.😁

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Grand Rapids and Muskegon seasonal  snow fall is now over 14" below average. So far this season Grand Rapids total snow fall is just 0.4" while at Detroit they have recorded 6" and they are +1.6" As you can see there has not been much in the way of snow fall so far this winter season.

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On 12/8/2020 at 5:16 AM, Tom said:

Yes!  The CPC site has updated their Arctic Oscillation site and what I'm seeing is defining the model support towards a +EPO overall through at least the next 2 weeks.  If you gauge the "look" at both 10mb/50mb across W NAMER from Nov 25th through Dec 5th, you can see the reason why there will be a wave train inundating AK/W NAMER through the extended, however, towards the end of the animation below, you can see the massive bulge growing over the N PAC/Aleutian Islands.  This is a major clue to look for ridging to build in this region by roughly Dec 20th and steadily creep east towards the North American coastline.  In essence, I believe the raging +EPO will subside towards the end of December allowing for major cold to begin infiltrating down western NAMER initially, and then seep into the northern/central Sub allow for a SW Flow pattern to develop.

 

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

Northern Hemisphere 50 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

Interestingly, yesterday's Euro Weeklies have backed away from the W NAMER trough and trended more towards the way I explained above.  More ridging off the west coast of the U.S. will aid in funneling colder air into the pattern.

Previous run...

1.png

 

Current Run...I like the "look" the model is trending towards by the Winter Solstice period and into the Christmas holiday.

2.png

 

Now, the big question will be, what happens over the next week or so, as that will determine the extent of the ridging near the Aleutians and also W NAMER.  If the Euro is correct, I can see the model reverse course in the EPO department by end of the month into Jan.  At the very least, the EPO should trend towards neutral by months end.  The maps below are HUGE signals that a weakening in the PV is likely and if the high latitude blocking remains in tact, Winter is without a doubt coming down into the lower 48.

 

3.png

4.png

 

I'll end this post with the Euro Weeklies 30-day snow mean map...the signal is present for many "opportunities" that are about to begin, signaling a more active pattern beginning the Week of the 13th which has been my longstanding idea.

6.png

Ya' all know I enjoy my my winter weather - but I call Tom's post  ( and following posts- A bust, nothing agst Tom, but I don't see it. My call is torch between Christmas and New YEars. PLease show me where I'am wrong- image.thumb.png.e51fbe82cf4335638c59fed03d09cdfc.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

Ya' all know I enjoy my my winter weather - but I call Tom's post  ( and following posts- A bust, nothing agst Tom, but I don't see it. My call is torch between Christmas and New YEars. PLease show me where I'am wrong- image.thumb.png.e51fbe82cf4335638c59fed03d09cdfc.png

I don't mind the challenge...it's all in good fun...IMHO, we will start seeing model agreement this week that during the Christmas Holiday week the pattern turns ripe for real Winter to settle in for nearly all of us.  If the GEFS are right with regards to the 10mb Strat forecasts in Week 2, buckle up bud...

 

Judah commenting on what I was talking about the other day...

Quote

#PolarVortex (PV) fans - what is better than one WAFz upward pulse? Two WAFz upward pulses! This is what GFS is predicting for the remainder of December & should lead to further weakening of the PV. The weaker the PV the higher risk of severe winter weather in January.

Image

 

The JMA seasonal forecast came out a couple days ago and I was going to comment on it but had no time.  In any event, here are the maps for Jan-Feb below.

January...not a lot of high lat blocking showing up on this run and a stout SER....I don't believe the model (along with the Euro Seasonal) is not seeing the -AO/-NAO block.  If it were, this map would look a lot different a "press" the whole storm track farther south along with the brutal cold that is likely to build in Canada.  This month really has a ton of potential to be filled with non stop fun and games.

 

1.png

 

Temp/Precip...

 

Y202012.D0700_gl2.png

 

Very good signal for a very active pattern coming off the PAC and developing storms over the eastern Sub (AN MW/GL's/OHV)...

Y202012.D0700_gl0.png

 

Feb...same comments as I mentioned above, however, I do see the slight signal for blocking in eastern Canada/Greenland.  Notice how this blocking pattern allows for the trough to be a bit farther south as the block "presses" the whole pattern farther south.  Imagine if that block grows stronger...it has me thinking

 

2.png

 

Temp/Precip...pretty much the same pattern overall as Jan but a little more colder across the central CONUS and west coast..

 

Y202012.D0700_gl2.png

 

Y202012.D0700_gl0.png

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On 11/14/2020 at 12:43 PM, whatitdo said:

I appreciate the warm welcomes! Thanks, will check this out. It's in my blood to refrain from getting too excited, but I'd be lying if I said I haven't caught myself wishing for some legit flakes soon. That dusting on the 1st was a nice lil treat. 

Where in KZOO?    Lake Effect can get crazy just west of Kzoo with the right set up.  10 miles can make a difference between 10" and nothing.  

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14 hours ago, Tom said:

Interesting trends off the CFSv2 for the month of January....NE PAC Ridge/W NAMER Ridge, -AO block...all we would need is to get a bit more blocking near Greenland and we will be off to the races...

 

CFSv2.z700.20201214.202101.gif

That's brutal snowy cold even without much more Greenland blocking. I'd say there will be "flex" in the block out that way. Going to be hard to hold it down in that pattern. Other choice is that it goes from variant then to "WIDE OPEN FOR BUSINESS" out there to lock down mode in the 3rd week of January as the strat works it's magic.. It might knock the whole darn thing off the pole, too. Who knows?

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