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Winter & Spring 2021 Discussion


Niko

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The CPC just updated their long range guess and it looks like it may be bad news for the winter weather fans. They new guess is for a warmer than average winter but they think it could be still wet.
The updated January guess.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php
the updated January thru March guess
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
and for the upcoming spring season
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3

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Screwed by Modoki Nina. Hello new futility records falling left-n-right. @Stacsh may get his wish.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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As we near the end of 2020, what are the models suggesting for Jan '21???  As the LR signals continue to grow up in the Stratosphere, none more so than the Euro seasonal, which for the 2nd run in a row is highlighting a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSW) in January.  This is not the only model picking up on this signal.

 

 

 

The CFSv2 has been sniffing this out for a long time now...not only that, but as we near the New Year, all the global models are showing a big time warming event towards the end of the calendar year.

cfs-mon_01_Tz10_nhem_1.png

 

Folks, I have not seen this much evidence in play here where there is so much data suggesting sustained winter is on the horizon.  As a winter wx enthusiast, these are maps you would ask for nature to deliver.  It's rather impressive to see things lining up as we head deeper into winter.

00z GEFS 10mb strat forecast...gettin' ready to knock the PV off the Pole...#CrossPolarFlow

 

1.gif

 

I'll finish with this...watch the orientation of the "ribbon of blues" from the Baja of Cali in a SW/NE orientation in the 10mb animation below and the forecast from last nights 00z GFS...coincidence???  Nah, pattern recognition...yes...lock in the SW Flow...Happy New year!

 

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

gfs_Tz10_nhem_27.png

 

00z Euro op with a very similar look...

 

4.png00z 

 

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

As we near the end of 2020, what are the models suggesting for Jan '21???  As the LR signals continue to grow up in the Stratosphere, none more so than the Euro seasonal, which for the 2nd run in a row is highlighting a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSW) in January.  This is not the only model picking up on this signal.

 

 

 

The CFSv2 has been sniffing this out for a long time now...not only that, but as we near the New Year, all the global models are showing a big time warming event towards the end of the calendar year.

cfs-mon_01_Tz10_nhem_1.png

 

Folks, I have not seen this much evidence in play here where there is so much data suggesting sustained winter is on the horizon.  As a winter wx enthusiast, these are maps you would ask for nature to deliver.  It's rather impressive to see things lining up as we head deeper into winter.

00z GEFS 10mb strat forecast...gettin' ready to knock the PV off the Pole...#CrossPolarFlow

 

1.gif

 

I'll finish with this...watch the orientation of the "ribbon of blues" from the Baja of Cali in a SW/NE orientation in the 10mb animation below and the forecast from last nights 00z GFS...coincidence???  Nah, pattern recognition...yes...lock in the SW Flow...Happy New year!

 

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

gfs_Tz10_nhem_27.png

 

00z Euro op with a very similar look...

 

4.png00z 

 

 Those 10 mb maps are confusing. Noll's shows the blob of reds (+) anom's pouncing on the pole which makes sense to me, thus the name Sudden Stratosperic Warming Event. But your GEFS/GFS maps still show a bunch of blues over the pole which seems opposite.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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47 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

 Those 10 mb maps are confusing. Noll's shows the blob of reds (+) anom's pouncing on the pole which makes sense to me, thus the name Sudden Stratosperic Warming Event. But your GEFS/GFS maps still show a bunch of blues over the pole which seems opposite.

Yes, it can be confusing bc maybe your not reading them the way I interpret the data for LR calls.  I've learned over the years that what has already transpired in the 10mb/30mb levels, it usually produces and outcome in the 500mb level within 2-3 weeks whether it be a trough or ridge.  The blues indicate to me that a SW Flow aloft will develop to close out the month and enter Jan alongside a NE PAC ridge where you see the blossoming orange/red colors.  This is a tell-tale sign of an active southern stream jet coming out of the 4 corners.  You take the date stamp on the animation and add 2-3 weeks and gauge what the pattern could look like.  It has worked great this year when I expect a trough or ridge to develop.

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I must say- for all the time(s) Tom has been wrong (considering the field - I give'em a break- though you can't be wrong all the time) but this is the 2nd run in a row of the GFS showing Nanook AIr coming down with Cross Polar Flow -  480 dam thickness is very cold---  If Tom calls this- he gets a mulligans for the past and several for the future. gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_54.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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On 12/14/2020 at 3:47 AM, Grizzcoat said:

Ya' all know I enjoy my my winter weather - but I call Tom's post  ( and following posts- A bust, nothing agst Tom, but I don't see it. My call is torch between Christmas and New YEars. PLease show me where I'am wrong- image.thumb.png.e51fbe82cf4335638c59fed03d09cdfc.png

But before Tom gets credit- lets see how the time frame from 25th- to 29th or ends up. Looking like something the above even with a one day cool down. Euro based. Which meets it's weeklies. Which seems to be winning. We seem to have an island of cool at times in a sea of warm. I don't see any areas of the Upper Midwest avg below normal for temps for the period 25th through New Years...

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Yes, it can be confusing bc maybe your not reading them the way I interpret the data for LR calls.  I've learned over the years that what has already transpired in the 10mb/30mb levels, it usually produces and outcome in the 500mb level within 2-3 weeks whether it be a trough or ridge.  The blues indicate to me that a SW Flow aloft will develop to close out the month and enter Jan alongside a NE PAC ridge where you see the blossoming orange/red colors.  This is a tell-tale sign of an active southern stream jet coming out of the 4 corners.  You take the date stamp on the animation and add 2-3 weeks and gauge what the pattern could look like.  It has worked great this year when I expect a trough or ridge to develop.

I think we could all put a little more weight in your long range forecasts if you had maps supporting your reasoning for them... when you say that a pattern at 10/30mb translates to a specific 500mb pattern in 2-3 weeks time, at least one past example would be helpful. 

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4 hours ago, james1976 said:

Looking quite snowy

gfs_asnow_us_65.png

For New England. Otherwise most of that does not scream snow-maggedon for a 15 day map. I could flash numerous more impressive 10 day maps for past snowy periods. It only looks good due to where a lot of us have been lately.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

For New England. Otherwise most of that does not scream snow-maggedon for a 15 day map. I could flash numerous more impressive 10 day maps for past snowy periods. It only looks good due to where a lot of us have been lately.

I was more less saying it cuz it had snowcover for 3/4 of the country

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3 hours ago, james1976 said:

I was more less saying it cuz it had snowcover for 3/4 of the country

Gotcha! Yeah, better than the alternative ofc. Let's hope it's just beginning a trend 😉

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This post is meant to explain how I use the 10mb/30mb strat forecasts to predict the upper air or 500mb/pressure pattern in the 2-3 week range.  I hope it helps explain to those of you who are interested how I came across this LR tool a few years ago.  While flipping through these wx maps, I "saw" something rather interesting and it struck me like a flash of lighting.  You ever get that vivid moment every now and then when a vision just flashes before your eyes??  Well, I had that feeling when I saw this.  In fact, even before I learned about the LRC I saw patterns cycle and now I became accustomed to witnessing the ever cycling wx pattern and not just in the weather dept, but in all aspects of life itself.  Anyhow, I hope it provides some clarity and makes sense to those who are interested.

 

Alright, alright, alright....in the beginning of this animation below you can clearly see the deep blues all across the N PAC/Bearing Sea/NE PAC and into NW NAMER.  Back in November, we had a raging N PAC jet that created a pattern which flooded the CONUS with warmth and a general +EPO pattern.  This is part of the reason why I believe we had such a warm CONUS last month.  

 

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

Nov20TDeptUS.png

 

 

Now, pay attention to where we see the time stamp around Dec 3rd-8th when the warm pool begins to grow in the N PAC and expands east into Western NAMER.  This warming essentially tells me to look for ridging to form in the 2-3 week range right where the warming is growing and expanding.  This would place us right around today's date and into the extended LR pattern.  Low and behold, what happens to the EPO after seemingly being in a (+) phase for what seems like weeks???  Yes, it flips to neutral and what I believe will happen is it will turn more negative as we head into January.  I'll chime in on that a bit more in the coming days.  What I want to express is that the models had ZERO clue that the EPO would flip around this time period and how many times did we see the Euro Weeklies continue to show a stout +EPO in the LR (bias or not) it never saw this pattern change but I started honing in on it a couple weeks ago once I saw this warming event take shape.

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

Moving along, after the Dec 6th period, look how the blue colors take over North America and appear to have a SW Flow that illustrates a trough targeting the SW/Cali region up through our Sub with slight warm colors near the SE coast line (neutral PNA signal).  Now, what I'd like show you is the 00z EPS 500mb animation below and notice the deep trough like pattern all across the N PAC/Alaska/NW NAMER early on and then it suddenly FLIPS on Dec 21st/22nd across NW NAMER!  I hope you can "see"what I'm talking about as its not one-to-one in exact location of the ridging that develops where the warm pool at 10mb grows.  Generally, the flow aloft is more conducive towards ridging and higher pressure patterns going forward due to this warming at both 10mb/30mb from this period forward.

 

In terms of a potential storm track, I also you use these maps to sorta give me a general idea of where storms will track.  Is it a coincidence that the models are now really focusing in a southern stream storm track??  No!  It's the pattern that's now becoming conducive for this to happen.  Storms are not slamming into parts of western NAMER but instead will be tracking down into the 4 corners/Cali region in the extended...in fact, I believe this pattern has legs well beyond the New Year into January.  That's a whole other topic of conversation because this could very well just be the beginning of a spectacular wintry pattern for a lot of us on this Sub heading into 2021.

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_npac_8.png

 

1.gif

 

I'll end this post with this 30mb animation and pay close attn to the last few frames where you can see an almost Polar Vortex type feature where deeper blues are forming near Hudson Bay.  This, my friends, could be the Polar Vortex exhibit of the LRC pattern as we head into January and usher in some brutally cold weather and likely "Severe Winter" by the end of Week 1 in January.

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

In summary, I hope this provides some clarity, if not, well...I guess I'll try to answer any questions or concerns.  In a nutshell, this LR pattern recognition technique can be confusing but I've learned that it typically takes 2-3 weeks before you start to see the impacts of a Sudden Stratospheric warming event.  The general rule applies here when I forecast troughs/ridges/storm tracks using the 10mb/30mb maps.  I find it interesting that the models can predict the 10mb pattern much more effectively in the Week 2 range than the 500mb pattern.  Is it because at 10mb the weight of the air is much lower than at 500mb???  It could be.  There's a lot more on this subject I want to discuss but that will be part of my farther research in this category.  Nonetheless, it appears that Winter is here to stay and the aforementioned stratosphere forecasts suggest it will have BIG implications for the North American weather pattern.  Happy Winter storm tracking!! 

#snowmaggedon2021

 

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On 12/14/2020 at 3:47 AM, Grizzcoat said:

Ya' all know I enjoy my my winter weather - but I call Tom's post  ( and following posts- A bust, nothing agst Tom, but I don't see it. My call is torch between Christmas and New YEars. PLease show me where I'am wrong- image.thumb.png.e51fbe82cf4335638c59fed03d09cdfc.png

Remember how dry the models were for this period???  It's literally going to be the complete opposite over the central CONUS from Christmas to New Year's.  I just don't trust the EPS in the LR and esp the Euro Control.  None of the models saw the blocking that's going to lock into January.  TBH, we have a lot to look forward to as we head into 2021.

 

Here's the latest EPS precip anomaly through end of year...

5.png

 

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I will urge one word of caution in regards to the SSW and I hope I have spoken it before in my optimism but, there is the chance that the SSW influences the PV in a way that cuts the entire bulk of anomalous cold off and leaves it on the other side of the globe. 

I've failed in every single way imaginable over the last 4 years, so I want to throw that out there. If I'm wrong about the cold coming back, this is the reason that would most likely cause it. Elsewise, the deck is stacked for a hit and hold cold blast at some point at or post mid-January.

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  • Niko changed the title to Winter 2021 Discussion
9 hours ago, westMJim said:

Thanks for posting this, hits the nail on the head as far as warming winter weather and how it effects the sports that need cold air to survive.

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From the article:

"The Great Lakes region has seen a larger increase in annual average temperatures than the rest of the continental U.S. And "winters are getting warmer more quickly than the summers are," said Richard Rood, a professor in climate and space sciences and engineering at the University of Michigan.

"The planet overall is warming, but states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois are getting warmer, faster," said Don Wuebbles, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Illinois.

Snowfall in the Great Lakes Basin decreased 2.25% from 1984 to 2013 as compared with 1954 to 1983. Researchers project snowfall could decline by almost 48% by 2080 under a business-as-usual scenario without reduced human carbon emissions. But even under a more optimistic scenario, where greenhouse gas emissions are significantly curtailed, winter snowfall in the Great Lakes Basin is expected to decline by more than 28% by 2080."

I've talked with a great deal of elderly patients since moving to Michigan and quite literally all of them have told me winters are much less harsh, much less snow than what they were used to growing up, fwiw. Don't understand how some folks refuse to acknowledge this reality. 

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23 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

From the article:

"The Great Lakes region has seen a larger increase in annual average temperatures than the rest of the continental U.S. And "winters are getting warmer more quickly than the summers are," said Richard Rood, a professor in climate and space sciences and engineering at the University of Michigan.

"The planet overall is warming, but states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois are getting warmer, faster," said Don Wuebbles, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Illinois.

Snowfall in the Great Lakes Basin decreased 2.25% from 1984 to 2013 as compared with 1954 to 1983. Researchers project snowfall could decline by almost 48% by 2080 under a business-as-usual scenario without reduced human carbon emissions. But even under a more optimistic scenario, where greenhouse gas emissions are significantly curtailed, winter snowfall in the Great Lakes Basin is expected to decline by more than 28% by 2080."

I've talked with a great deal of elderly patients since moving to Michigan and quite literally all of them have told me winters are much less harsh, much less snow than what they were used to growing up, fwiw. Don't understand how some folks refuse to acknowledge this reality. 

They've been told it's a scam by the illuminati to pay more taxes or something dumb like that.  Who knows?  Some people refuse to accept facts that go against their beliefs, which is weird in a scientific field like climatology and meteorology.   There is no changing them.    They are deep in the conspiracy well.  

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 Maybe we will get a back loaded Winter, who knows. I am surprised I have received this much snow so far. Most of the storm tracks were iffy for my area, but manged to provide some snows. Too much mixing going on though tbh. We need some real cold air, so that bonify, solid snowstorms occur from start to end, not slopfest.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Massive changes hemispheric changes in the latest Euro Seasonal for January as the model has flipped in dramatic fashion away from the stout trough over western NAMER/AK compared to the last several runs.  Did I mention the models have no clue of the blocking across Greenland???  Not only that, but the Scandinavian Block which hooks over the top allowing for cold to spill south into the lower 48.  This 500mb pattern is ripe for action across the majority of our Sub.

1.png

 

Nice wet signal showing up over the Plains/MW...cutters???

 

2.png

 

February is also trending in the right direction...big signal for the -NAO block to continue...

3.png

 

4+.png

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

Massive changes hemispheric changes in the latest Euro Seasonal for January as the model has flipped in dramatic fashion away from the stout trough over western NAMER/AK compared to the last several runs.  Did I mention the models have no clue of the blocking across Greenland???  Not only that, but the Scandinavian Block which hooks over the top allowing for cold to spill south into the lower 48.  This 500mb pattern is ripe for action across the majority of our Sub.

1.png

 

Nice wet signal showing up over the Plains/MW...cutters???

 

2.png

 

February is also trending in the right direction...big signal for the -NAO block to continue...

3.png

 

4+.png

 

From GRR

- Colder and snowy after the 15th?

However, a significant change in the pattern is forecast by both
the ECMWF, the GFS, GFS16, GEFS, CFSv2, and the ECMWF weekly model
forecasts. There are 3 things happening to support this. First is
a very week MJO, so that will not be strong enough to force the
pattern over the next 3 week. There is a stratospheric warming
event over Canada now that spills into the CONUS. Beyond that we
have one of those 200 knot East Asian Jet streaks heading this way
for early next week. That by itself will be strong enough to
break through the blocking we currently have. The GFS has been
forecasting this for at least 3 days now, so there is consistency
to this idea.
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I was going to write this in the January discussion but I think I will post it here instead.

It looks like the official overnight low at Grand Rapids will be 14° that will make this winter’s season the 3rd latest date to reach a low of 14 or colder. Joining the winter seasons of 1907/08 (January 17) 2012/12 (January 21) and 1931/32 (January 30)

In the winter of 1907/08, it did turn cold for a couple of weeks at the end of January and the start of January. In the winter of 1931/32 after a couple of cold days at the end of January it once again became warm in February. But March was cold and snowy with a temperature departure of -7.2 and 25.3” of snow fall. In 2012/13 well that winter consisted of 4 days of cold in January and 8 days in February however Mach was cold. As for snow fall the winter of 1907/08 Grand Rapids reported 43.4” the winter of 1931/31 41.1 with 25.3 of that in March. And The winter of 2012/13 66.0 With 33.1 of that in February with most of that falling in the first 8 days on that month.

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I still have old patches of snow laying around. I guess they are waiting for the next batch. W cold air around (still AN though), feels at least wintry out there.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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  • Niko changed the title to Winter & Spring 2021 Discussion

weekly snow depth mapranking

Unlike many here who just want big snow events.  I want deep snowpack, I don't care if its 10 small clippers or 1 big Colorado low!  I have found these maps from the MN DNR to be the most accurate available and are published every Thursday during the late fall to early spring.  They have maps online going back to 1996-97.  Looking back through them it seems like even though El Nino winters may bring warm temps they do eventually bring snow, even 2015-16 and 1997-98 to some degree.  But, when La Nina winters go bad, they really go bad!  2011-2012, 1998-99, 1999-2000 as examples.  This winter is just a small notch above those examples so far.  Sitting at the the 20th percentile snow depth for the date as of yesterday.  

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3 hours ago, Beltrami Island said:

weekly snow depth mapranking

Unlike many here who just want big snow events.  I want deep snowpack, I don't care if its 10 small clippers or 1 big Colorado low!  I have found these maps from the MN DNR to be the most accurate available and are published every Thursday during the late fall to early spring.  They have maps online going back to 1996-97.  Looking back through them it seems like even though El Nino winters may bring warm temps they do eventually bring snow, even 2015-16 and 1997-98 to some degree.  But, when La Nina winters go bad, they really go bad!  2011-2012, 1998-99, 1999-2000 as examples.  This winter is just a small notch above those examples so far.  Sitting at the the 20th percentile snow depth for the date as of yesterday.  

One of the perks of living up north is having to benefit from snow-on-snow events.  It's very difficult to get them down here.  The only winter in recent memory was the infamous 2013-14 season where it snowed almost every 2-3 days it seemed like.  For the most part, they were 2-4", 3-6" events with a couple big ones around the New Year and in January.  I agree, I don't care how they come so long we can generate a deep snow pack.

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Here is some information on thunder snow

https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/scientists-learn-thundersnow-satellite-imagery/story?id=75431573&cid=clicksource_4380645_14_heads_posts_card_hed

When I live in Bay City and Alpena, I experienced thundersnow many times. I can recall storms in 1964, 1967, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1978, and 1984. I moved to Grand Rapids in the spring of 1984 and in that time while there have been reports of thunder snow, I have only recalled one time and that was just a single flash (note many of the storms above had many flashes) and of course very heavy not lake effect snow falls. If Grand Rapids has a true thunder snowstorm before I die I will let you know.

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5 hours ago, westMJim said:

Here is some information on thunder snow

https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/scientists-learn-thundersnow-satellite-imagery/story?id=75431573&cid=clicksource_4380645_14_heads_posts_card_hed

When I live in Bay City and Alpena, I experienced thundersnow many times. I can recall storms in 1964, 1967, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1978, and 1984. I moved to Grand Rapids in the spring of 1984 and in that time while there have been reports of thunder snow, I have only recalled one time and that was just a single flash (note many of the storms above had many flashes) and of course very heavy not lake effect snow falls. If Grand Rapids has a true thunder snowstorm before I die I will let you know.

'65-85 the Golden Era of stormy-ness for the Mitt

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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  • 3 weeks later...

It appears likely that this year will be yet another year that will feature #delayedspring.  The CFSv2 is trending the same way it started off for the month of Feb and we are seeing what this month is delivering.  If you look at the trends for next month, the model is sniffing out the holy grail that supports a pattern conducive for late season winter storms.  The all-important blocking up near Greenland.  It's not the only model, in fact, the JMA seasonal that came out yesterday and it is showing the same thing.  Late in the season, the NAO plays a big role, none more so than during the months of FEB-APR.  With that being said, here are some maps...

 

CFSv2...

Trends so far are starting to see the blocking up across eastern Canada and Greenland...an extremely wet pattern is shaping up....Bowling Ball season????  Snow enthusiasts....stay thirsty my friends!  Snow records will fall by the time this season ends for some of you on here who have had a tremendous start to this season.

 

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202103.gif

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.202103.gif

 

 

JMA...

1.png

 

Temp/Precip...pretty similar signal as the CFSv2...

 

Y202102.D0500_gl2.png

 

Y202102.D0500_gl0.png

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  • 3 weeks later...

That's a wrap!  This was the epitome of a "back-loaded" winter for Chicago and the most memorable comeback of Winter I've ever experienced.  The numbers below say speak for itself.  I was surprised to see that the avg temp ended up 0.1F BN after such a warm Dec and Jan.  Interestingly, precip was BN while in the snow dept it ended up much AN!  The brutal cold wasn't that much of a player over here as subzero readings at ORD were shy of the avg (12) days a typical winter season sees.

1.jpg

 

Now, I'll be honest, as a winter wx fan I'm already paying attn to next winter and some similar ideas are already coming to mind with high late blocking (esp Greenland) next cold season.  Low solar and cyclical patterns will be in the cards so there is hope for a good to great one next year without having to see so much warmth as the oceans cool this summer/autumn.

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I'm sorry, but if the current terminology is confusing to you then you're just dumb. "Plain language headlines", so does that mean an actual headline or just an announcement on the website or social media? 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

I'm sorry, but if the current terminology is confusing to you then you're just dumb. "Plain language headlines", so does that mean an actual headline or just an announcement on the website or social media? 

I didn't know what you were talking about, then I saw a tweet from NWS Hastings.  How much simpler do we need to make things?  My gosh.  The dumbing down of America continues.  If you can't figure out this terminology, you should probably pay more attention in English classes.  I showed this to one of our English teachers and she thought it was a joke.  

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