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17 hours ago, Clinton said:

Lock downs are no good.  I agree Dec should start and finish good with a little lull in the middle.  Christmas Day storm???  I have it on my calendar give or take a day.

By looking at tonight's map, they've even locked-down active weather.

THIS is 3rd week of November??

 

20201121 NWS CONUS Hazards.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I agree with both Clinton and Tom. I think it's as clear cut as could be. I think I get an early taste on 29th and 30th of this month still yet.

Not saying Tom's call for some cold and storm action in December isn't happening, but I think Grizz may have a valid argument too. We've been discussing the mood swings of La Nina's and citing the 07-08 example of active with marginal cold. While some want to say 13-14 is an analog, I'm having a difficult time believing the cold can rock-n-lock across the lower 48. Then we have 98-99 which was overall very mild and much below normal snowfall, with a 2 week stretch in the first half of January of legendary stature saving what surely would've been a serious dud season. I remember thinking '99 was off to an awesome start, even tho we'd had to wait all through a very warm December. But just as quickly as it went big, winter slumped back into it's relaxed phase, only re-appearing for a brief 4 days in March. Heck it hit 72F in Feb at KBTL. Perhaps Tom's call plays out and the 2-week bonanza targets December vs January this time. We'll have to wait and see.

Top analogs by order of preference (of similar winter season):

1) 2010-11   2) 2007-08   3) 1998-99   4) 2017-18

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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8 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I agree with both Clinton and Tom. I think it's as clear cut as could be. I think I get an early taste on 29th and 30th of this month still yet.

It's going to be hard to get anything this month but Dec will turn colder fast.  Artic front should move through on the 8th and the part of the pattern that produced a historic ice storm in Oklahoma is due in right after that.  Did you get any ice out of that or was it off to your west?

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

It's going to be hard to get anything this month but Dec will turn colder fast.  Artic front should move through on the 8th and the part of the pattern that produced a historic ice storm in Oklahoma is due in right after that.  Did you get any ice out of that or was it off to your west?

Over the last week, I've been watching the trends in the modeling across western NAMER and they are all trending in the right direction for Winter to begin to make it's presence felt as we flip the calendar into met Winter.  Overall, I like where we may be heading, in fact, there may be a late month southern stream storm cutting up towards the S MW/OHV that could lay down some snow around the GL's/MW.  The Euro has been flashing a storm and the EPS members showing more wintry scenarios.  I've had my target period of Dec 5th for real winter to make its way down into the Lower 48 and your storm target date of the 8th is making sense.  The East Asian rule and LRC are lining up.

Not only is the 500mb pattern lining up, but we have some interesting trends with regards to the Polar Vortex.  The Euro is suggesting it may slide its way towards North America as we find ourselves with a peculiar set up as a Scandinavian warming event "pushes" it over onto our side of the Pole or at least a lobe of it.

1.png

 

The flip in the PNA pattern is nice to see and which gets rid of that pesky SER...blocking is also growing in the high lats among the modeling. So, we find ourselves with a lot of variables that may be seemingly coming together for December.

 

2.png

 

I'll end this post with the animation below that confirms what has been consistently showing up on the 48hr GEFS 500mb trends...Western NAMER ridging = Eastern CONUS Trough...

 

gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_fh144-372.gif

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

It's going to be hard to get anything this month but Dec will turn colder fast.  Artic front should move through on the 8th and the part of the pattern that produced a historic ice storm in Oklahoma is due in right after that.  Did you get any ice out of that or was it off to your west?

Stayed west, thankfully. I'm pretty nervous that is what I'll get next, but I hope not.

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Over the last week, I've been watching the trends in the modeling across western NAMER and they are all trending in the right direction for Winter to begin to make it's presence as we flip the calendar into met Winter.  Overall, I like where we may be heading, in fact, there may be a late month southern stream storm cutting up towards the S MW/OHV that could lay down some snow around the GL's/MW.  The Euro has been flashing a storm and the EPS members showing more wintry scenarios.  I've had my target period of Dec 5th for real winter to make its way down into the Lower 48 and your storm target date of the 8th is making sense.  The East Asian rule and LRC are lining up.

Not only is the 500mb pattern lining up, but we have some interesting trends with regards to the Polar Vortex.  The Euro is suggesting it may slide its way towards North America as we find ourselves with a peculiar set up as a Scandinavian warming event "pushes" it over onto our side of the Pole or at least a lobe of it.

1.png

 

The flip in the PNA pattern is nice to see and which gets rid of that pesky SER...blocking is also growing in the high lats among the modeling. So, we find ourselves with a lot of variables that may be seemingly coming together for December.

 

2.png

 

I'll end this post with the animation below that confirms what has been consistently showing up on the 48hr GEFS 500mb trends...Western NAMER ridging = Eastern CONUS Trough...

 

gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_fh144-372.gif

Of the top analogs, I think only '98 failed to deliver some decent to good winter in December. 3 of the 4 I listed anyways, the active Nina's, not the two duds that have been included in some lists. The odds are in your favor is what I'm getting at and I'm remaining hopeful that not only do we "flip the script" for December, but we see enough repeating of the pattern on through JFM to make this more than a one month winter. I did notice the 21/0z Euro run with another wind-making 987 mb SLP over Lk. Huron next Sunday-ish. Looks like it could be the UP's first good storm, delivering a pretty good shot at wrap-around LES showers across the Mitt. Gotta get the rest of my decorations outside.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Of the top analogs, I think only '98 failed to deliver some decent to good winter in December. 3 of the 4 I listed anyways, the active Nina's, not the two duds that have been included in some lists. The odds are in your favor is what I'm getting at and I'm remaining hopeful that not only do we "flip the script" for December, but we see enough repeating of the pattern on through JFM to make this more than a one month winter. I did notice the 21/0z Euro run with another wind-making 987 mb SLP over Lk. Huron next Sunday-ish. Looks like it could be the UP's first good storm, delivering a pretty good shot at wrap-around LES showers across the Mitt. Gotta get the rest of my decorations outside.

Yes, I do believe this could very well be a promising month for most of us, but I'm concerned for those out west in the Plains states.  The first half of December may not be that favorable for those out west and north, but then I think it'll be more or less "share the wealth" by mid month.  The best outcome would be for all of us to share some Snow OTG for the holidays.  Heck, even a near average month of Dec would be a blessing more most of us across the eastern/southern Sub given what we had to endure the last 3+ years.

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Per latest guidance with Euro weeklies and long range  Euro/EPS and GFS-GEFS/ CPC among others--- for early/mid DEC (which I do believe have serious merit for Plains states (W IA into NEB--- areas E have better chance)--- Tom Petty nailed it with  the chance of a cold/snowy DEC--- "You don't come around here anymore"--- If you don't agree, at least enjoy a great tune.

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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On 11/21/2020 at 11:45 AM, Tom said:

Yes, I do believe this could very well be a promising month for most of us, but I'm concerned for those out west in the Plains states.  The first half of December may not be that favorable for those out west and north, but then I think it'll be more or less "share the wealth" by mid month.  The best outcome would be for all of us to share some Snow OTG for the holidays.  Heck, even a near average month of Dec would be a blessing more most of us across the eastern/southern Sub given what we had to endure the last 3+ years.

Just been the past 2 Dec's over here, as we had the pair of snowy ones bookended by 2 pairs of duds. But I know Chicago was just west of the action in 2016 and a bit less so in 2017. The cold and snow right at Christmas Eve/Day 3 years back was Currier and Ives gorgeous here! And it stayed cold that entire holiday week, a true rarity anymore.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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6 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Per latest guidance with Euro weeklies and long range  Euro/EPS and GFS-GEFS/ CPC among others--- for early/mid DEC (which I do believe have serious merit for Plains states (W IA into NEB--- areas E have better chance)--- Tom Petty nailed it with  the chance of a cold/snowy DEC--- "You don't come around here anymore"--- If you don't agree, at least enjoy a great tune.

 

Give it up...Stop😆

 

 

Hoping the move north still gets me a winter.

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From PP at Accu-WX- (guy is actually pretty good, been following him for sometime).

 

Here is a look at December Temperatures.

We made some changes to the December forecast, but keep in mind that based on Sunday's run of the models, this forecast is not cool enough in the South and warm enough in the Great Lakes. However, today's run has no idea what to do with the potential merging storm track late this week into early next week. The place and strengthen of the merger will determine the intensity and length of the cold shot that follows.

December 2020 temperature forecast made on Nov. 11

590x332_11111329_screen-shot-2020-11-11-at-8.25.47-am.png

December 2020 temperature forecast made on Nov. 23

590x335_11231248_screen-shot-2020-11-23-at-7.47.24-am.png

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West Michigan Met's winter outlook. Has BN snowfall but says FEB will rock similar to 10-11. Calling for 55" in Battle Creek which is 3" LESS than last season. LOL, so much for Nina rescuing our sorry-a$$ winters of late.

https://www.woodtv.com/bills-blog-2/bills-blog-what-will-winter-2020-2021-look-like/

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Took a very quick glance at the Euro Weeklies from yesterday and they have suddenly flipped back to "winter mode" for practically everyone one here.  The blocking showing up in all the right places and "hooking over the top" certainly bodes well for our Sub.  I like the trends.  Speaking of this, the model is picking up on a sweet storm track over the next 30 days.  The GL's should ignite the LES machine sometime around the end of Week 2 into 3.  I do see the potential for a "snow hole" developing near the Dakota's due to a more dominant southern stream storm track.  

 

2.png

 

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38 minutes ago, Tom said:

Took a very quick glance at the Euro Weeklies from yesterday and they have suddenly flipped back to "winter mode" for practically everyone one here.  The blocking showing up in all the right places and "hooking over the top" certainly bodes well for our Sub.  I like the trends.  Speaking of this, the model is picking up on a sweet storm track over the next 30 days.  The GL's should ignite the LES machine sometime around the end of Week 2 into 3.  I do see the potential for a "snow hole" developing near the Dakota's due to a more dominant southern stream storm track.  

 

2.png

 

Nice looking storm showing up at the end of the 0z Euro.  10 days out we shall see if it holds.

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Took a very quick glance at the Euro Weeklies from yesterday and they have suddenly flipped back to "winter mode" for practically everyone one here.  The blocking showing up in all the right places and "hooking over the top" certainly bodes well for our Sub.  I like the trends.  Speaking of this, the model is picking up on a sweet storm track over the next 30 days.  The GL's should ignite the LES machine sometime around the end of Week 2 into 3.  I do see the potential for a "snow hole" developing near the Dakota's due to a more dominant southern stream storm track.  

 

2.png

 

You are ever the optimist, I will give you that.  For example, this map shows Chicago getting 6 inches of snowfall over 30 days.  That hardly seems like something to get excited about.

Southeast Alaska and British Columbia look to be on the receiving end of a near constant barrage of storms and will get dumped with rain and snow.  This usually floods the CONUS with warm pacific air and leads to warmth across the country.          

That snow hole for the dakotas and eastern montana is more a reflection of climate.  I would hazard a guess that unless there is a major storm forecast within Day 7, that hole will most always show up on a long range ensemble map.  

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5 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

You are ever the optimist, I will give you that.  For example, this map shows Chicago getting 6 inches of snowfall over 30 days.  That hardly seems like something to get excited about.

Southeast Alaska and British Columbia look to be on the receiving end of a near constant barrage of storms and will get dumped with rain and snow.  This usually floods the CONUS with warm pacific air and leads to warmth across the country.          

That snow hole for the dakotas and eastern montana is more a reflection of climate.  I would hazard a guess that unless there is a major storm forecast within Day 7, that hole will most always show up on a long range ensemble map.  

Back in the middle part of Autumn and into November the Euro Weeklies definitely saw the N Stream being dominant and never indicated much, if any, wintry precip across the S MW/Lower Lakes region.  This time, however, it is signaling a S Stream storm track due to the blocking evolving that the model "missed", esp the big bust that is forthcoming in practically ALL the climate models near Greenland.  Look how much the models have trended in recent days of a -NAO/-AO pattern to open up December.  I'm optimistic because all the LR clues I look for are indeed coming into fruition.  I'm def not wish casting

 

BTW, a 6-7" mean in Chicago is normal in the snow dept and if you saw the EPS Control run, it lays down Feet of snow by end of December for a lot of the MW/Lower Lakes.  The signal is there for some real action down farther south when all the action was up north due to a strong SER.  This has reversed course and its time to deliver the goods farther south I guess.  Let's see what happens...but I'll be honest, there is a favorable pattern shaping up.

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Here is the updated long range guess from Paul Pastrelok at Accuweather

"Northeast, mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, eastern Ohio Valley – The La Nina pattern eases early to midmonth with the southern branch stronger as an upper high pressure area builds from the Canadian and Rockies to the central Prairies forcing a storm track south. As cold fronts move swiftly in the north with less precipitation, the southern storms will move slower and bring wetter conditions. Occasionally we will have a merge of the two storm tracks and possibly a bigger storm for the Northeast and lake-effect snowfall with brief, cold bursts behind storms. The pattern will warm into the second part of the month, but a faster northern storm track could lead to a more back-and-forth pattern late month (moderate to higher confidence)."

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Just now, westMJim said:

Here is the updated long range guess from Paul Pastrelok at Accuweather

"Northeast, mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, eastern Ohio Valley – The La Nina pattern eases early to midmonth with the southern branch stronger as an upper high pressure area builds from the Canadian and Rockies to the central Prairies forcing a storm track south. As cold fronts move swiftly in the north with less precipitation, the southern storms will move slower and bring wetter conditions. Occasionally we will have a merge of the two storm tracks and possibly a bigger storm for the Northeast and lake-effect snowfall with brief, cold bursts behind storms. The pattern will warm into the second part of the month, but a faster northern storm track could lead to a more back-and-forth pattern late month (moderate to higher confidence)."

And for out to the west of my area

"Western Ohio Valley, Midwest, northern Plains – Chilly shots will have a little more impact in eastern areas rather than western areas first half of the month, then switches just past mid-month. Temperature departures in the 11- to 15-day to the 16- to 20-day periods can run 6-10 degrees above normal as an upper high floats around this region. For the second half of the month, the upper high will split, part over eastern Canada and over the Southwest. The storm track will return from the northern Rockies into the Plains and occasional cold shots can bring down temperatures departures. How much of a drop in temperatures will depend on building snowpack, which we favor later in the month (moderate confidence)"

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56 minutes ago, Tom said:

That's what I like to see...I bet it grows deeper as we head deeper into December.  The Greenland Block is gonna rock.

It surely needs to get colder than it's been or it's no bueno for the Lwr Lakes despite a good track. Hoping things can come together. I miss legit storms after nearly five years since any one system delivered dbl digits and that was the warm Nino storm so the first 8" melted down to about 4" and it never really felt like a 10" hit. GHD-2 was last time so after nearly 6 years I'm getting a bit impatient with misses in every direction tbh.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Bill Steffens who is a Grand Rapids tv meteorologist has his winter guess out and his thinking is that there will be less snow fall then average in west Michigan. He is calling for around 68" at Grand Rapids, 66 inches at Kalamazoo, 55" at Battle Creek, 78" at Muskegon and 85" at Holland. We shall see how this plays out. In past years he has over guessed. 

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16 hours ago, westMJim said:

Bill Steffens who is a Grand Rapids tv meteorologist has his winter guess out and his thinking is that there will be less snow fall then average in west Michigan. He is calling for around 68" at Grand Rapids, 66 inches at Kalamazoo, 55" at Battle Creek, 78" at Muskegon and 85" at Holland. We shall see how this plays out. In past years he has over guessed. 

Yeah, not to steal your thunder but I posted a link to his outlook already 2 days ago. Interesting when the NWS people are calling for above avg snowfall. Most usually it's the other way around.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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8 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah, not to steal your thunder but I posted a link to his outlook already 2 days ago. Interesting when the NWS people are calling for above avg snowfall. Most usually it's the other way around.

Sorry I did not see you post. Anyway I guess Bill is now on record to see how this winter plays out. I can not remember when the last time he made a below average snow fall guess. I still think that with the lakes this warm we could get a big lake event if we get the right cold front come thur in the next 2 to 3 weeks. 

 

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Can we just not do winter in April for the 49th time in a row? Can spring start on time just once? 

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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On 11/19/2020 at 4:51 AM, Grizzcoat said:

 I rarely post on long range- and I'am cold/snow biased- so take that into account . I will admit it.

Without posting maps (as Iam sure many look  at and what Beltrami posted in the other thread) things are not looking good (if you like winter) for the next several weeks at least-- maybe imo, through most of DEC, if not into JAN.  Systems will roll through but likely without enough cold air to produce winter precip outside of maybe the far North. IMO- the longevity of the tropical season (not totally shut down btw) with the LA nina in place is more akin to back loaded winters (if you wanna call it that- I don't- as I see winter over (starting?)  by Jan 15th or so with rapidly increasing sun angle and daylight- especially here in IA) -- I see an overall  winter - in the best like 98-99. That's a stretch at this juncture... For sure a DEC to remember for (cold and snow) is again not going to happen and WHAT you want to build on cold and snow. It may get winter like in FEB/MARCH like it has the past several years (out of many)  , but this winter is looking blah at BEST-- and FTR- I've done long range forecasting in the past for ski resorts (Lutsen Mtns in MN  in the early 2010's) .. I just don't see "real" winter this season until sometime after Jan 15th for many reading this S of 45N latitude. I hope i'am wrong of course but the trends and setups of teleconnections don't look favorable until maybe late winter. Carry on.

Just a note to what I posted nearly 10 days ago. It's basically come to fruition. I do hope I'am wrong about mid DEC and that it does turn cold/snowy around the 12th. Need -AO big time AND enough moisture. Tough to do.

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On 11/27/2020 at 11:37 AM, Grizzcoat said:

Just a note to what I posted nearly 10 days ago. It's basically come to fruition. I do hope I'am wrong about mid DEC and that it does turn cold/snowy around the 12th. Need -AO big time AND enough moisture. Tough to do.

I'm in agreement with you. You also did an excellent job of explaining your views and qualifying yourself in explaining it. Well done. I have appreciation for that.

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Gary Lezak has released his Winter forecast and there are no big surprises.  He did confirm the cycle length in this forecast (46-50) days.  This forecast is for KC but I think it is relevant for a lot of us on the western half of the sub.  I do believe he will give more of a national outlook in his blog either later on tonight or in his blog tomorrow.  I'm curious where he believes the hot spots are this year (if any).

Posted at 12:00 PM, Dec 03, 2020
 
and last updated 12:00 PM, Dec 03, 2020

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Winter is on the way and the weather pattern is now set for the season.

It is looking like a winter that will have two or three seven to 10-day stretches of very cold and stormy weather, and then even longer stretches of drier and milder weather. So, overall we are predicting a milder winter.

There is a developing La Niña, which is the cooling of the Tropical Pacific Ocean. This is the exact opposite of El Niño. When the waters cool, influences on regions far away from the tropics happen. And, Kansas City is already seeing some influence from this developing La Niña, and Lindsey Anderson discusses this in-depth in her La Niña story.

La Niña is just one piece of the bigger picture.

Recent Stories from kshb.com

There is a complex puzzle in the river of air flowing above us that causes our storm systems. The centerpiece of this puzzle is the LRC, which allows us to predict when and where storm systems will strike.
 

In this year’s LRC, we have only identified only a few storm systems capable of producing snow. There aren't too many parts of this cycling weather pattern that have shown the capability of being cold and stormy at the same time. So, as a result, our weather team is predicting below-average snowfall this winter.

There are other factors that are considered. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is one of the pieces of that complex puzzle. If the AO dips negative, then a stormy and cold stretch is more likely. When it rises to higher positive levels, long dry and mild stretches are more likely. So, far, early in the season, the AO has been more positive, and is likely the reason it has been so mild in November. We do think there will be a couple of dips to the negative AO territory, and this will lead to our stormier stretches later on this winter.

Overall, we are forecasting below-average snowfall, near to below-average rainfall, and near average temperatures.

Our weather team is predicting 16.3” of snow. Gary Lezak's prediction is 15.5”. Wes Peery is predicting 13.7”. Lindsey Anderson is going with 17”. Jeff Penner is predicting 19”. Average the predictions out, and we end up with that 16.3” total.

When a winter storm shows up, we will be letting you know far in advance and preparing you for winter weather. Remember that first snow in October? That part of the pattern will cycle through around December 10th to 15th, and again in late January, and one more time in early to mid-March, according to the LRC. There will be a couple other parts of this cycling pattern that will produce possible winter storms as well, but in between there will be long dry and mild stretches.

Have a great holiday season, and stay with 41 Action News, and we will keep you advised.

Copyright 2020 Scripps Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

R

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@ClintonThanks for posting Gary's winter outlook. That was pretty much what I expected for our area anyway. Precip has been hard to come by on the Kansas side of late so I wasn't expecting anything too epic. STILL...this is mother nature so ya just never know! 😉

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1: 4.5"), (Apr 20: 3.1"); Season total: 15.5" (87% of normal 17.8")
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11 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

@ClintonThanks for posting Gary's winter outlook. That was pretty much what I expected for our area anyway. Precip has been hard to come by on the Kansas side of late so I wasn't expecting anything too epic. STILL...this is mother nature so ya just never know! 😉

We definitely need to cash in on this upcoming storm cuz it's clearly one of the few that is targeting our area after that we have a good chance of one between Christmas and New Years. Imo those are our 2 of the 3 or 4 storms in each cycle we have a shot at.

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10 hours ago, Clinton said:

Gary Lezak has released his Winter forecast and there are no big surprises.  He did confirm the cycle length in this forecast (46-50) days.  This forecast is for KC but I think it is relevant for a lot of us on the western half of the sub.  I do believe he will give more of a national outlook in his blog either later on tonight or in his blog tomorrow.  I'm curious where he believes the hot spots are this year (if any).

Posted at 12:00 PM, Dec 03, 2020
 
and last updated 12:00 PM, Dec 03, 2020

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Winter is on the way and the weather pattern is now set for the season.

It is looking like a winter that will have two or three seven to 10-day stretches of very cold and stormy weather, and then even longer stretches of drier and milder weather. So, overall we are predicting a milder winter.

There is a developing La Niña, which is the cooling of the Tropical Pacific Ocean. This is the exact opposite of El Niño. When the waters cool, influences on regions far away from the tropics happen. And, Kansas City is already seeing some influence from this developing La Niña, and Lindsey Anderson discusses this in-depth in her La Niña story.

La Niña is just one piece of the bigger picture.

Recent Stories from kshb.com

There is a complex puzzle in the river of air flowing above us that causes our storm systems. The centerpiece of this puzzle is the LRC, which allows us to predict when and where storm systems will strike.
 

In this year’s LRC, we have only identified only a few storm systems capable of producing snow. There aren't too many parts of this cycling weather pattern that have shown the capability of being cold and stormy at the same time. So, as a result, our weather team is predicting below-average snowfall this winter.

There are other factors that are considered. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is one of the pieces of that complex puzzle. If the AO dips negative, then a stormy and cold stretch is more likely. When it rises to higher positive levels, long dry and mild stretches are more likely. So, far, early in the season, the AO has been more positive, and is likely the reason it has been so mild in November. We do think there will be a couple of dips to the negative AO territory, and this will lead to our stormier stretches later on this winter.

Overall, we are forecasting below-average snowfall, near to below-average rainfall, and near average temperatures.

Our weather team is predicting 16.3” of snow. Gary Lezak's prediction is 15.5”. Wes Peery is predicting 13.7”. Lindsey Anderson is going with 17”. Jeff Penner is predicting 19”. Average the predictions out, and we end up with that 16.3” total.

When a winter storm shows up, we will be letting you know far in advance and preparing you for winter weather. Remember that first snow in October? That part of the pattern will cycle through around December 10th to 15th, and again in late January, and one more time in early to mid-March, according to the LRC. There will be a couple other parts of this cycling pattern that will produce possible winter storms as well, but in between there will be long dry and mild stretches.

Have a great holiday season, and stay with 41 Action News, and we will keep you advised.

Copyright 2020 Scripps Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

R

Thanks for sharing this info...Initially, I thought the LRC length was going to be a little longer but once I saw the models showing that cut-off trough in the SW for this coming weekend it solidified my thoughts as well that the late Oct pattern was cycling.  There are a lot of storms this season that tracked into the "slot" down near the TX Panhandle/OK region.  When these storms do cycle back, in order for the southern tier to cash in on snow, the high lats gotta block up or this winter will be another dud.  I'm just hoping that after the SSW event later this month it shuffles the atmosphere around and in time for the holidays.  I don't know what I'll do if we have to endure another torchy Christmas!

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Thanks for sharing this info...Initially, I thought the LRC length was going to be a little longer but once I saw the models showing that cut-off trough in the SW for this coming weekend it solidified my thoughts as well that the late Oct pattern was cycling.  There are a lot of storms this season that tracked into the "slot" down near the TX Panhandle/OK region.  When these storms do cycle back, in order for the southern tier to cash in on snow, the high lats gotta block up or this winter will be another dud.  I'm just hoping that after the SSW event later this month it shuffles the atmosphere around and in time for the holidays.  I don't know what I'll do if we have to endure another torchy Christmas!

 

 

 

 

I can give you guys another issue with this warm, snowless pattern.  Stores that sell snow blowers, shovels, ice melt, etc. are really struggling.  If it wasn't bad enough during much of the pandemic, now the weather doesn't cooperate for them to sell these items.  The local Ace Hardware says they can't get rid of any winter weather equipment.  They are not doing very well financially from what I can see.  They had already laid off employees before this.  Not good at all.  I get mad at the lack of storms, but my livelihood is not tied too if we can get snow, ice, cold, etc.

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On 11/7/2020 at 6:42 AM, Tom said:

I'm going to post some maps from the latest Euro seasonal and go over what they are showing.  First off, I do NOT believe it's Nov forecast as it is likely to warm for the southern tier of our Sub and likely to dry for the central states.

November...

1.png

2.png

 

In December, it's starting to see the Greenland Block that I believe has a good shot at popping this winter.  Does it happen in December??  That's a good question.  What signals are out there that could support such a pattern in the N Atlantic???  Well, I go to my 10mb/30mb maps to see if there is any warming ongoing in that part of the world.  In fact, there is...in recent days, a blossoming warm pool has been forming and I'd like to see if this is a brief blip or something more longer duration and scale...

The last few frames may be advertising a chance for blocking to develop near Greenland and Scandinavia late November into December. If both of these potential blocks can lock, the December outlook will look different.

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

3.png

Could you see that much warmth in North America???? I think not....Euro drinking to much of its warm bias....no chance it's that warm, esp with a warm pocket in NE Canada.  Western Canada is likely to be frigid based on the overall pattern that is setting up now and will last well into early Spring, IMHO.

 

4.png

5.png

 

 

So, the anticipated changes in the Euro Seasonal are showing up on this run.  Instead of a large AK/Yukon/NW Territories trough, it has shifted west this run along with a deeper Aleutian Low allowing for more ridging across W NAMER.  The N ATL Block and Greenland Block have both grown resulting in a EC trough.  Is this believable?  Assuming the teleconnections that the models are now spitting out and this forecasted 500mb pattern, it certainly is plausible.  With the understanding of the warm bias this model has, seeing the model cool off so much this run gives me some idea that its seeing a colder month ahead for the eastern CONUS.  Will we start seeing the rest of the LR models picking up on the Blocking, thus resulting in deeper troughs across the eastern CONUS??  This is what I'll be looking for over the next week.  

1.png

 

2.png

 

Here is the Dec 500mb N HEM map...

3.png

 

Now, comparing to last months run, January is trending in the same direction...stronger Scandinavian Block and I anticipate the model seeing more blocking near AK/Greenland next run which will shift the Polar Vortex farther south and more into central Canada.  That's my vision for Jan '21.

4.png

5.png

 

 

 

 

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Deedler's outlook summary for Detroit/SEMI..

Quote

Winter Outlook:

Temperatures and Snowfall:

Most analogue winters averaged normal to slightly below with an average sitting at 26.5 (30 year norm @ 27.9 or -1.4 below). Taking into account the more recent La Nina winters - Modoki La Nina winters- computer guidance and recent trends; I surmise the average of the winter analogues are on the cooler side and therefore; I look for a normal to above normal temperature winter. This is both for the winter (Dec-Feb) and cold season (Nov-Mar). The analogues contained front-end loaded, mid-loaded or back-end loaded winters regarding temperatures (coldest relative to norms) and snowfall (relative to averages). There were twice as many snowier winters (8/4) as there were snowless (see analogues and legends below). Potential for a major snowstorm or two in the snowy La Nina analogues was slightly greater in every month Dec-Mar with a lean toward late season.

 

In descending order; back-end loaded (roughly late Jan-Mar) winters were favored in regard to colder temperature and/or heavier snowfall with front-end loaded (roughly mid Nov-to late Jan) second. There were just a hand-full of cold Decembers, Januarys and Februarys which helps gives more credence to a sharply colder month or period mentioned earlier. On the flip-side; chances of mild periods increase with time with February looking the best.

And one more thing; there are enough well below normal (or "snowless") months that showed up in every set of analogues to be concerned about a bust on the snowfall prediction but I'll hang tough with the normal to above - for the time being anyway. 

Our Nina going "Modoki" is not the best look on the temps regime (basically what we're seeing now), and the variability from snowless to amazing sounds about right (see 98-99). I do like the odds of a Major event he mentions (hello 98-99 again) and the "polar express" as seen in 13-14. It's a nicely written piece.

Full write-up:

https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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8 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Deedler's outlook summary for Detroit/SEMI..

Our Nina going "Modoki" is not the best look on the temps regime (basically what we're seeing now), and the variability from snowless to amazing sounds about right (see 98-99). I do like the odds of a Major event he mentions (hello 98-99 again) and the "polar express" as seen in 13-14. It's a nicely written piece.

Full write-up:

https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/

Great search bud!

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Comments from a LOT Met's post elsewhere about their winter outlook. Seems he's fond of 98-99 as our best hope like myself..

Quote

In our local winter outlook (NWS LOT), we leaned warmer (actually got a nastygram from CPC for going against their temperature outlook 2 winters ago so we didn't explicitly say warmer than normal), and AN precip, which has strongest signal in Ninas. Since December is leaning dry, we should get most of our winter precip in J-F.

 

Snow wise, think somehow we'll end up within range of normal. Last year was crappy as we all know and it eeked out just slightly below normal, though did have a head start from late Oct-Nov events. We're overdue for an area wide higher end warning event, so hoping we get 1 or 2 systems to track favorably. Figure if we do get into a more classic Niña pattern, we can manage to get one to work out ala 1999.

 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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