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Yes!  The CPC site has updated their Arctic Oscillation site and what I'm seeing is defining the model support towards a +EPO overall through at least the next 2 weeks.  If you gauge the "look" at both 10mb/50mb across W NAMER from Nov 25th through Dec 5th, you can see the reason why there will be a wave train inundating AK/W NAMER through the extended, however, towards the end of the animation below, you can see the massive bulge growing over the N PAC/Aleutian Islands.  This is a major clue to look for ridging to build in this region by roughly Dec 20th and steadily creep east towards the North American coastline.  In essence, I believe the raging +EPO will subside towards the end of December allowing for major cold to begin infiltrating down western NAMER initially, and then seep into the northern/central Sub allow for a SW Flow pattern to develop.

 

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

Northern Hemisphere 50 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

Interestingly, yesterday's Euro Weeklies have backed away from the W NAMER trough and trended more towards the way I explained above.  More ridging off the west coast of the U.S. will aid in funneling colder air into the pattern.

Previous run...

1.png

 

Current Run...I like the "look" the model is trending towards by the Winter Solstice period and into the Christmas holiday.

2.png

 

Now, the big question will be, what happens over the next week or so, as that will determine the extent of the ridging near the Aleutians and also W NAMER.  If the Euro is correct, I can see the model reverse course in the EPO department by end of the month into Jan.  At the very least, the EPO should trend towards neutral by months end.  The maps below are HUGE signals that a weakening in the PV is likely and if the high latitude blocking remains in tact, Winter is without a doubt coming down into the lower 48.

 

3.png

4.png

 

I'll end this post with the Euro Weeklies 30-day snow mean map...the signal is present for many "opportunities" that are about to begin, signaling a more active pattern beginning the Week of the 13th which has been my longstanding idea.

6.png

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At the time of writing the post above, the 30mb maps were not updated but has since done so.  Needless to say, it looks very positive for the overall pattern across the NE PAC.  It also does not look like the URAL's/Scandinavian Block will be going away anytime soon. 

 

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

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Man the long range forecast in this thread changes every few days it seems. Everything keeps getting put off or changing from week to week. 

Can we all say it's a crap shoot to forecast anything long range seasonally at this point? Seriously, go back and read this thread to see the yo-yo forecasts for the long range. The long range forecasts should only be taken as entertainment purposes!😁

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15 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Man the long range forecast in this thread changes every few days it seems. Everything keeps getting put off or changing from week to week. 

Can we all say it's a crap shoot to forecast anything long range seasonally at this point? Seriously, go back and read this thread to see the yo-yo forecasts for the long range. The long range forecasts should only be taken as entertainment purposes!😁

LR forecasting is so difficult, most Met's don't even touch it. It's a tough nut to crack but I appreciate anyone who tries, including Tom's methods whether right or wrong in the end, it's a good learning experience wrt pattern drivers and such.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I will look on my walk today but there have been reports of dandelions in bloom. That happened last December as well and I have a picture that I took of a dandelion in bloom on Christmas day last year. With Sundays high of 31 that was the first time since February 28th that was 281 days of temperatures of 33 or better and according to Bill Stiffen that is a top ten. At this time it is cloudy and 37 here at my house. The picture of the dandelion is from last year not this year and it was taken on Christmas day.

IMG_0671 (1).JPG

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18 hours ago, Tom said:

At the time of writing the post above, the 30mb maps were not updated but has since done so.  Needless to say, it looks very positive for the overall pattern across the NE PAC.  It also does not look like the URAL's/Scandinavian Block will be going away anytime soon. 

 

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

Thats gotta erupt over the pole or "through the top" or we're going right back to warm boring crap after...

Will be a short lived winter if that domino doesn't fall.

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16 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Man the long range forecast in this thread changes every few days it seems. Everything keeps getting put off or changing from week to week. 

Can we all say it's a crap shoot to forecast anything long range seasonally at this point? Seriously, go back and read this thread to see the yo-yo forecasts for the long range. The long range forecasts should only be taken as entertainment purposes!😁

I do my writing with the knowledge that it is guessing with research and hope mixed with luck.

I called out both ways it could go this time and why my guess would be wrong, if I was, this time. I hope that didn't appear to be double minded but I try to please everyone. I fail. Lol.

My bet for a roaring 6 week block in the middle is still alive. Option one was a hit and hold type but that ship sailed a month ago and I haven't revived that hope or hype.

*The strat warming event should put the nail in the huge warm ups and massive US ridging*

Winter is still coming. Delayed, not denied. 

My 2c...

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8 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I do my writing with the knowledge that it is guessing with research and hope mixed with luck.

I called out both ways it could go this time and why my guess would be wrong, if I was, this time. I hope that didn't appear to be double minded but I try to please everyone. I fail. Lol.

My bet for a roaring 6 week block in the middle is still alive. Option one was a hit and hold type but that ship sailed a month ago and I haven't revived that hope or hype.

*The strat warming event should put the nail in the huge warm ups and massive US ridging*

Winter is still coming. Delayed, not denied. 

My 2c...

75-76 was good "just north" of here, scoring about 24-30" more within the pair of snowy months. If cold does show, I could allow that analog to still be in play. However, attm I'm still leaning heavily on a 98-99 more brief mini-winter spell surrounded by more of this 11-12 style treatment.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

75-76 was good "just north" of here, scoring about 24-30" more within the pair of snowy months. If cold does show, I could allow that analog to still be in play. However, attm I'm still leaning heavily on a 98-99 more brief mini-winter spell surrounded by more of this 11-12 style treatment.

I'm calling it now man - based solely on this gloom feeling in my stomach I have right now, I predict snowfall will be even lower than 2011-2012. Would love to be wrong about this. But the temperatures just always seem to be a tad too warm, even by December standards. 

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10 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I do my writing with the knowledge that it is guessing with research and hope mixed with luck.

I called out both ways it could go this time and why my guess would be wrong, if I was, this time. I hope that didn't appear to be double minded but I try to please everyone. I fail. Lol.

My bet for a roaring 6 week block in the middle is still alive. Option one was a hit and hold type but that ship sailed a month ago and I haven't revived that hope or hype.

*The strat warming event should put the nail in the huge warm ups and massive US ridging*

Winter is still coming. Delayed, not denied. 

My 2c...

This is a winter weather forum, so no one should be surprised when basically all the forecasts done on here and on other winter weather forum sites are looking through rose(white) colored glasses. It's just like going to your favorite sports team's forum and seeing so many declare every year their team is going to win the World Series or Superbowl.😁

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Grand Rapids and Muskegon seasonal  snow fall is now over 14" below average. So far this season Grand Rapids total snow fall is just 0.4" while at Detroit they have recorded 6" and they are +1.6" As you can see there has not been much in the way of snow fall so far this winter season.

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On 12/8/2020 at 5:16 AM, Tom said:

Yes!  The CPC site has updated their Arctic Oscillation site and what I'm seeing is defining the model support towards a +EPO overall through at least the next 2 weeks.  If you gauge the "look" at both 10mb/50mb across W NAMER from Nov 25th through Dec 5th, you can see the reason why there will be a wave train inundating AK/W NAMER through the extended, however, towards the end of the animation below, you can see the massive bulge growing over the N PAC/Aleutian Islands.  This is a major clue to look for ridging to build in this region by roughly Dec 20th and steadily creep east towards the North American coastline.  In essence, I believe the raging +EPO will subside towards the end of December allowing for major cold to begin infiltrating down western NAMER initially, and then seep into the northern/central Sub allow for a SW Flow pattern to develop.

 

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

Northern Hemisphere 50 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

Interestingly, yesterday's Euro Weeklies have backed away from the W NAMER trough and trended more towards the way I explained above.  More ridging off the west coast of the U.S. will aid in funneling colder air into the pattern.

Previous run...

1.png

 

Current Run...I like the "look" the model is trending towards by the Winter Solstice period and into the Christmas holiday.

2.png

 

Now, the big question will be, what happens over the next week or so, as that will determine the extent of the ridging near the Aleutians and also W NAMER.  If the Euro is correct, I can see the model reverse course in the EPO department by end of the month into Jan.  At the very least, the EPO should trend towards neutral by months end.  The maps below are HUGE signals that a weakening in the PV is likely and if the high latitude blocking remains in tact, Winter is without a doubt coming down into the lower 48.

 

3.png

4.png

 

I'll end this post with the Euro Weeklies 30-day snow mean map...the signal is present for many "opportunities" that are about to begin, signaling a more active pattern beginning the Week of the 13th which has been my longstanding idea.

6.png

Ya' all know I enjoy my my winter weather - but I call Tom's post  ( and following posts- A bust, nothing agst Tom, but I don't see it. My call is torch between Christmas and New YEars. PLease show me where I'am wrong- image.thumb.png.e51fbe82cf4335638c59fed03d09cdfc.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

Ya' all know I enjoy my my winter weather - but I call Tom's post  ( and following posts- A bust, nothing agst Tom, but I don't see it. My call is torch between Christmas and New YEars. PLease show me where I'am wrong- image.thumb.png.e51fbe82cf4335638c59fed03d09cdfc.png

I don't mind the challenge...it's all in good fun...IMHO, we will start seeing model agreement this week that during the Christmas Holiday week the pattern turns ripe for real Winter to settle in for nearly all of us.  If the GEFS are right with regards to the 10mb Strat forecasts in Week 2, buckle up bud...

 

Judah commenting on what I was talking about the other day...

Quote

#PolarVortex (PV) fans - what is better than one WAFz upward pulse? Two WAFz upward pulses! This is what GFS is predicting for the remainder of December & should lead to further weakening of the PV. The weaker the PV the higher risk of severe winter weather in January.

Image

 

The JMA seasonal forecast came out a couple days ago and I was going to comment on it but had no time.  In any event, here are the maps for Jan-Feb below.

January...not a lot of high lat blocking showing up on this run and a stout SER....I don't believe the model (along with the Euro Seasonal) is not seeing the -AO/-NAO block.  If it were, this map would look a lot different a "press" the whole storm track farther south along with the brutal cold that is likely to build in Canada.  This month really has a ton of potential to be filled with non stop fun and games.

 

1.png

 

Temp/Precip...

 

Y202012.D0700_gl2.png

 

Very good signal for a very active pattern coming off the PAC and developing storms over the eastern Sub (AN MW/GL's/OHV)...

Y202012.D0700_gl0.png

 

Feb...same comments as I mentioned above, however, I do see the slight signal for blocking in eastern Canada/Greenland.  Notice how this blocking pattern allows for the trough to be a bit farther south as the block "presses" the whole pattern farther south.  Imagine if that block grows stronger...it has me thinking

 

2.png

 

Temp/Precip...pretty much the same pattern overall as Jan but a little more colder across the central CONUS and west coast..

 

Y202012.D0700_gl2.png

 

Y202012.D0700_gl0.png

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On 11/14/2020 at 12:43 PM, whatitdo said:

I appreciate the warm welcomes! Thanks, will check this out. It's in my blood to refrain from getting too excited, but I'd be lying if I said I haven't caught myself wishing for some legit flakes soon. That dusting on the 1st was a nice lil treat. 

Where in KZOO?    Lake Effect can get crazy just west of Kzoo with the right set up.  10 miles can make a difference between 10" and nothing.  

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14 hours ago, Tom said:

Interesting trends off the CFSv2 for the month of January....NE PAC Ridge/W NAMER Ridge, -AO block...all we would need is to get a bit more blocking near Greenland and we will be off to the races...

 

CFSv2.z700.20201214.202101.gif

That's brutal snowy cold even without much more Greenland blocking. I'd say there will be "flex" in the block out that way. Going to be hard to hold it down in that pattern. Other choice is that it goes from variant then to "WIDE OPEN FOR BUSINESS" out there to lock down mode in the 3rd week of January as the strat works it's magic.. It might knock the whole darn thing off the pole, too. Who knows?

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The CPC just updated their long range guess and it looks like it may be bad news for the winter weather fans. They new guess is for a warmer than average winter but they think it could be still wet.
The updated January guess.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php
the updated January thru March guess
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
and for the upcoming spring season
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3

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Screwed by Modoki Nina. Hello new futility records falling left-n-right. @Stacsh may get his wish.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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As we near the end of 2020, what are the models suggesting for Jan '21???  As the LR signals continue to grow up in the Stratosphere, none more so than the Euro seasonal, which for the 2nd run in a row is highlighting a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSW) in January.  This is not the only model picking up on this signal.

 

 

 

The CFSv2 has been sniffing this out for a long time now...not only that, but as we near the New Year, all the global models are showing a big time warming event towards the end of the calendar year.

cfs-mon_01_Tz10_nhem_1.png

 

Folks, I have not seen this much evidence in play here where there is so much data suggesting sustained winter is on the horizon.  As a winter wx enthusiast, these are maps you would ask for nature to deliver.  It's rather impressive to see things lining up as we head deeper into winter.

00z GEFS 10mb strat forecast...gettin' ready to knock the PV off the Pole...#CrossPolarFlow

 

1.gif

 

I'll finish with this...watch the orientation of the "ribbon of blues" from the Baja of Cali in a SW/NE orientation in the 10mb animation below and the forecast from last nights 00z GFS...coincidence???  Nah, pattern recognition...yes...lock in the SW Flow...Happy New year!

 

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

gfs_Tz10_nhem_27.png

 

00z Euro op with a very similar look...

 

4.png00z 

 

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

As we near the end of 2020, what are the models suggesting for Jan '21???  As the LR signals continue to grow up in the Stratosphere, none more so than the Euro seasonal, which for the 2nd run in a row is highlighting a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSW) in January.  This is not the only model picking up on this signal.

 

 

 

The CFSv2 has been sniffing this out for a long time now...not only that, but as we near the New Year, all the global models are showing a big time warming event towards the end of the calendar year.

cfs-mon_01_Tz10_nhem_1.png

 

Folks, I have not seen this much evidence in play here where there is so much data suggesting sustained winter is on the horizon.  As a winter wx enthusiast, these are maps you would ask for nature to deliver.  It's rather impressive to see things lining up as we head deeper into winter.

00z GEFS 10mb strat forecast...gettin' ready to knock the PV off the Pole...#CrossPolarFlow

 

1.gif

 

I'll finish with this...watch the orientation of the "ribbon of blues" from the Baja of Cali in a SW/NE orientation in the 10mb animation below and the forecast from last nights 00z GFS...coincidence???  Nah, pattern recognition...yes...lock in the SW Flow...Happy New year!

 

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

gfs_Tz10_nhem_27.png

 

00z Euro op with a very similar look...

 

4.png00z 

 

 Those 10 mb maps are confusing. Noll's shows the blob of reds (+) anom's pouncing on the pole which makes sense to me, thus the name Sudden Stratosperic Warming Event. But your GEFS/GFS maps still show a bunch of blues over the pole which seems opposite.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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47 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

 Those 10 mb maps are confusing. Noll's shows the blob of reds (+) anom's pouncing on the pole which makes sense to me, thus the name Sudden Stratosperic Warming Event. But your GEFS/GFS maps still show a bunch of blues over the pole which seems opposite.

Yes, it can be confusing bc maybe your not reading them the way I interpret the data for LR calls.  I've learned over the years that what has already transpired in the 10mb/30mb levels, it usually produces and outcome in the 500mb level within 2-3 weeks whether it be a trough or ridge.  The blues indicate to me that a SW Flow aloft will develop to close out the month and enter Jan alongside a NE PAC ridge where you see the blossoming orange/red colors.  This is a tell-tale sign of an active southern stream jet coming out of the 4 corners.  You take the date stamp on the animation and add 2-3 weeks and gauge what the pattern could look like.  It has worked great this year when I expect a trough or ridge to develop.

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I must say- for all the time(s) Tom has been wrong (considering the field - I give'em a break- though you can't be wrong all the time) but this is the 2nd run in a row of the GFS showing Nanook AIr coming down with Cross Polar Flow -  480 dam thickness is very cold---  If Tom calls this- he gets a mulligans for the past and several for the future. gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_54.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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On 12/14/2020 at 3:47 AM, Grizzcoat said:

Ya' all know I enjoy my my winter weather - but I call Tom's post  ( and following posts- A bust, nothing agst Tom, but I don't see it. My call is torch between Christmas and New YEars. PLease show me where I'am wrong- image.thumb.png.e51fbe82cf4335638c59fed03d09cdfc.png

But before Tom gets credit- lets see how the time frame from 25th- to 29th or ends up. Looking like something the above even with a one day cool down. Euro based. Which meets it's weeklies. Which seems to be winning. We seem to have an island of cool at times in a sea of warm. I don't see any areas of the Upper Midwest avg below normal for temps for the period 25th through New Years...

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Yes, it can be confusing bc maybe your not reading them the way I interpret the data for LR calls.  I've learned over the years that what has already transpired in the 10mb/30mb levels, it usually produces and outcome in the 500mb level within 2-3 weeks whether it be a trough or ridge.  The blues indicate to me that a SW Flow aloft will develop to close out the month and enter Jan alongside a NE PAC ridge where you see the blossoming orange/red colors.  This is a tell-tale sign of an active southern stream jet coming out of the 4 corners.  You take the date stamp on the animation and add 2-3 weeks and gauge what the pattern could look like.  It has worked great this year when I expect a trough or ridge to develop.

I think we could all put a little more weight in your long range forecasts if you had maps supporting your reasoning for them... when you say that a pattern at 10/30mb translates to a specific 500mb pattern in 2-3 weeks time, at least one past example would be helpful. 

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4 hours ago, james1976 said:

Looking quite snowy

gfs_asnow_us_65.png

For New England. Otherwise most of that does not scream snow-maggedon for a 15 day map. I could flash numerous more impressive 10 day maps for past snowy periods. It only looks good due to where a lot of us have been lately.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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6 hours ago, james1976 said:

Looking quite snowy

gfs_asnow_us_65.png

Like I said in the complaint thread.... ND/MN dry line.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

For New England. Otherwise most of that does not scream snow-maggedon for a 15 day map. I could flash numerous more impressive 10 day maps for past snowy periods. It only looks good due to where a lot of us have been lately.

I was more less saying it cuz it had snowcover for 3/4 of the country

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3 hours ago, james1976 said:

I was more less saying it cuz it had snowcover for 3/4 of the country

Gotcha! Yeah, better than the alternative ofc. Let's hope it's just beginning a trend 😉

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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4 hours ago, james1976 said:

Parade of storms on 12z GFS

South of here! 😀

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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This post is meant to explain how I use the 10mb/30mb strat forecasts to predict the upper air or 500mb/pressure pattern in the 2-3 week range.  I hope it helps explain to those of you who are interested how I came across this LR tool a few years ago.  While flipping through these wx maps, I "saw" something rather interesting and it struck me like a flash of lighting.  You ever get that vivid moment every now and then when a vision just flashes before your eyes??  Well, I had that feeling when I saw this.  In fact, even before I learned about the LRC I saw patterns cycle and now I became accustomed to witnessing the ever cycling wx pattern and not just in the weather dept, but in all aspects of life itself.  Anyhow, I hope it provides some clarity and makes sense to those who are interested.

 

Alright, alright, alright....in the beginning of this animation below you can clearly see the deep blues all across the N PAC/Bearing Sea/NE PAC and into NW NAMER.  Back in November, we had a raging N PAC jet that created a pattern which flooded the CONUS with warmth and a general +EPO pattern.  This is part of the reason why I believe we had such a warm CONUS last month.  

 

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

Nov20TDeptUS.png

 

 

Now, pay attention to where we see the time stamp around Dec 3rd-8th when the warm pool begins to grow in the N PAC and expands east into Western NAMER.  This warming essentially tells me to look for ridging to form in the 2-3 week range right where the warming is growing and expanding.  This would place us right around today's date and into the extended LR pattern.  Low and behold, what happens to the EPO after seemingly being in a (+) phase for what seems like weeks???  Yes, it flips to neutral and what I believe will happen is it will turn more negative as we head into January.  I'll chime in on that a bit more in the coming days.  What I want to express is that the models had ZERO clue that the EPO would flip around this time period and how many times did we see the Euro Weeklies continue to show a stout +EPO in the LR (bias or not) it never saw this pattern change but I started honing in on it a couple weeks ago once I saw this warming event take shape.

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

Moving along, after the Dec 6th period, look how the blue colors take over North America and appear to have a SW Flow that illustrates a trough targeting the SW/Cali region up through our Sub with slight warm colors near the SE coast line (neutral PNA signal).  Now, what I'd like show you is the 00z EPS 500mb animation below and notice the deep trough like pattern all across the N PAC/Alaska/NW NAMER early on and then it suddenly FLIPS on Dec 21st/22nd across NW NAMER!  I hope you can "see"what I'm talking about as its not one-to-one in exact location of the ridging that develops where the warm pool at 10mb grows.  Generally, the flow aloft is more conducive towards ridging and higher pressure patterns going forward due to this warming at both 10mb/30mb from this period forward.

 

In terms of a potential storm track, I also you use these maps to sorta give me a general idea of where storms will track.  Is it a coincidence that the models are now really focusing in a southern stream storm track??  No!  It's the pattern that's now becoming conducive for this to happen.  Storms are not slamming into parts of western NAMER but instead will be tracking down into the 4 corners/Cali region in the extended...in fact, I believe this pattern has legs well beyond the New Year into January.  That's a whole other topic of conversation because this could very well just be the beginning of a spectacular wintry pattern for a lot of us on this Sub heading into 2021.

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_npac_8.png

 

1.gif

 

I'll end this post with this 30mb animation and pay close attn to the last few frames where you can see an almost Polar Vortex type feature where deeper blues are forming near Hudson Bay.  This, my friends, could be the Polar Vortex exhibit of the LRC pattern as we head into January and usher in some brutally cold weather and likely "Severe Winter" by the end of Week 1 in January.

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

In summary, I hope this provides some clarity, if not, well...I guess I'll try to answer any questions or concerns.  In a nutshell, this LR pattern recognition technique can be confusing but I've learned that it typically takes 2-3 weeks before you start to see the impacts of a Sudden Stratospheric warming event.  The general rule applies here when I forecast troughs/ridges/storm tracks using the 10mb/30mb maps.  I find it interesting that the models can predict the 10mb pattern much more effectively in the Week 2 range than the 500mb pattern.  Is it because at 10mb the weight of the air is much lower than at 500mb???  It could be.  There's a lot more on this subject I want to discuss but that will be part of my farther research in this category.  Nonetheless, it appears that Winter is here to stay and the aforementioned stratosphere forecasts suggest it will have BIG implications for the North American weather pattern.  Happy Winter storm tracking!! 

#snowmaggedon2021

 

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On 12/14/2020 at 3:47 AM, Grizzcoat said:

Ya' all know I enjoy my my winter weather - but I call Tom's post  ( and following posts- A bust, nothing agst Tom, but I don't see it. My call is torch between Christmas and New YEars. PLease show me where I'am wrong- image.thumb.png.e51fbe82cf4335638c59fed03d09cdfc.png

Remember how dry the models were for this period???  It's literally going to be the complete opposite over the central CONUS from Christmas to New Year's.  I just don't trust the EPS in the LR and esp the Euro Control.  None of the models saw the blocking that's going to lock into January.  TBH, we have a lot to look forward to as we head into 2021.

 

Here's the latest EPS precip anomaly through end of year...

5.png

 

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I will urge one word of caution in regards to the SSW and I hope I have spoken it before in my optimism but, there is the chance that the SSW influences the PV in a way that cuts the entire bulk of anomalous cold off and leaves it on the other side of the globe. 

I've failed in every single way imaginable over the last 4 years, so I want to throw that out there. If I'm wrong about the cold coming back, this is the reason that would most likely cause it. Elsewise, the deck is stacked for a hit and hold cold blast at some point at or post mid-January.

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  • Niko changed the title to Winter 2021 Discussion
9 hours ago, westMJim said:

Thanks for posting this, hits the nail on the head as far as warming winter weather and how it effects the sports that need cold air to survive.

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From the article:

"The Great Lakes region has seen a larger increase in annual average temperatures than the rest of the continental U.S. And "winters are getting warmer more quickly than the summers are," said Richard Rood, a professor in climate and space sciences and engineering at the University of Michigan.

"The planet overall is warming, but states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois are getting warmer, faster," said Don Wuebbles, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Illinois.

Snowfall in the Great Lakes Basin decreased 2.25% from 1984 to 2013 as compared with 1954 to 1983. Researchers project snowfall could decline by almost 48% by 2080 under a business-as-usual scenario without reduced human carbon emissions. But even under a more optimistic scenario, where greenhouse gas emissions are significantly curtailed, winter snowfall in the Great Lakes Basin is expected to decline by more than 28% by 2080."

I've talked with a great deal of elderly patients since moving to Michigan and quite literally all of them have told me winters are much less harsh, much less snow than what they were used to growing up, fwiw. Don't understand how some folks refuse to acknowledge this reality. 

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23 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

From the article:

"The Great Lakes region has seen a larger increase in annual average temperatures than the rest of the continental U.S. And "winters are getting warmer more quickly than the summers are," said Richard Rood, a professor in climate and space sciences and engineering at the University of Michigan.

"The planet overall is warming, but states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois are getting warmer, faster," said Don Wuebbles, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Illinois.

Snowfall in the Great Lakes Basin decreased 2.25% from 1984 to 2013 as compared with 1954 to 1983. Researchers project snowfall could decline by almost 48% by 2080 under a business-as-usual scenario without reduced human carbon emissions. But even under a more optimistic scenario, where greenhouse gas emissions are significantly curtailed, winter snowfall in the Great Lakes Basin is expected to decline by more than 28% by 2080."

I've talked with a great deal of elderly patients since moving to Michigan and quite literally all of them have told me winters are much less harsh, much less snow than what they were used to growing up, fwiw. Don't understand how some folks refuse to acknowledge this reality. 

They've been told it's a scam by the illuminati to pay more taxes or something dumb like that.  Who knows?  Some people refuse to accept facts that go against their beliefs, which is weird in a scientific field like climatology and meteorology.   There is no changing them.    They are deep in the conspiracy well.  

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 Maybe we will get a back loaded Winter, who knows. I am surprised I have received this much snow so far. Most of the storm tracks were iffy for my area, but manged to provide some snows. Too much mixing going on though tbh. We need some real cold air, so that bonify, solid snowstorms occur from start to end, not slopfest.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Massive changes hemispheric changes in the latest Euro Seasonal for January as the model has flipped in dramatic fashion away from the stout trough over western NAMER/AK compared to the last several runs.  Did I mention the models have no clue of the blocking across Greenland???  Not only that, but the Scandinavian Block which hooks over the top allowing for cold to spill south into the lower 48.  This 500mb pattern is ripe for action across the majority of our Sub.

1.png

 

Nice wet signal showing up over the Plains/MW...cutters???

 

2.png

 

February is also trending in the right direction...big signal for the -NAO block to continue...

3.png

 

4+.png

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

Massive changes hemispheric changes in the latest Euro Seasonal for January as the model has flipped in dramatic fashion away from the stout trough over western NAMER/AK compared to the last several runs.  Did I mention the models have no clue of the blocking across Greenland???  Not only that, but the Scandinavian Block which hooks over the top allowing for cold to spill south into the lower 48.  This 500mb pattern is ripe for action across the majority of our Sub.

1.png

 

Nice wet signal showing up over the Plains/MW...cutters???

 

2.png

 

February is also trending in the right direction...big signal for the -NAO block to continue...

3.png

 

4+.png

 

From GRR

- Colder and snowy after the 15th?

However, a significant change in the pattern is forecast by both
the ECMWF, the GFS, GFS16, GEFS, CFSv2, and the ECMWF weekly model
forecasts. There are 3 things happening to support this. First is
a very week MJO, so that will not be strong enough to force the
pattern over the next 3 week. There is a stratospheric warming
event over Canada now that spills into the CONUS. Beyond that we
have one of those 200 knot East Asian Jet streaks heading this way
for early next week. That by itself will be strong enough to
break through the blocking we currently have. The GFS has been
forecasting this for at least 3 days now, so there is consistency
to this idea.
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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I was going to write this in the January discussion but I think I will post it here instead.

It looks like the official overnight low at Grand Rapids will be 14° that will make this winter’s season the 3rd latest date to reach a low of 14 or colder. Joining the winter seasons of 1907/08 (January 17) 2012/12 (January 21) and 1931/32 (January 30)

In the winter of 1907/08, it did turn cold for a couple of weeks at the end of January and the start of January. In the winter of 1931/32 after a couple of cold days at the end of January it once again became warm in February. But March was cold and snowy with a temperature departure of -7.2 and 25.3” of snow fall. In 2012/13 well that winter consisted of 4 days of cold in January and 8 days in February however Mach was cold. As for snow fall the winter of 1907/08 Grand Rapids reported 43.4” the winter of 1931/31 41.1 with 25.3 of that in March. And The winter of 2012/13 66.0 With 33.1 of that in February with most of that falling in the first 8 days on that month.

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I still have old patches of snow laying around. I guess they are waiting for the next batch. W cold air around (still AN though), feels at least wintry out there.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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  • Niko changed the title to Winter & Spring 2021 Discussion
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