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weekly snow depth mapranking

Unlike many here who just want big snow events.  I want deep snowpack, I don't care if its 10 small clippers or 1 big Colorado low!  I have found these maps from the MN DNR to be the most accurate available and are published every Thursday during the late fall to early spring.  They have maps online going back to 1996-97.  Looking back through them it seems like even though El Nino winters may bring warm temps they do eventually bring snow, even 2015-16 and 1997-98 to some degree.  But, when La Nina winters go bad, they really go bad!  2011-2012, 1998-99, 1999-2000 as examples.  This winter is just a small notch above those examples so far.  Sitting at the the 20th percentile snow depth for the date as of yesterday.  

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3 hours ago, Beltrami Island said:

weekly snow depth mapranking

Unlike many here who just want big snow events.  I want deep snowpack, I don't care if its 10 small clippers or 1 big Colorado low!  I have found these maps from the MN DNR to be the most accurate available and are published every Thursday during the late fall to early spring.  They have maps online going back to 1996-97.  Looking back through them it seems like even though El Nino winters may bring warm temps they do eventually bring snow, even 2015-16 and 1997-98 to some degree.  But, when La Nina winters go bad, they really go bad!  2011-2012, 1998-99, 1999-2000 as examples.  This winter is just a small notch above those examples so far.  Sitting at the the 20th percentile snow depth for the date as of yesterday.  

One of the perks of living up north is having to benefit from snow-on-snow events.  It's very difficult to get them down here.  The only winter in recent memory was the infamous 2013-14 season where it snowed almost every 2-3 days it seemed like.  For the most part, they were 2-4", 3-6" events with a couple big ones around the New Year and in January.  I agree, I don't care how they come so long we can generate a deep snow pack.

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Here is some information on thunder snow

https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/scientists-learn-thundersnow-satellite-imagery/story?id=75431573&cid=clicksource_4380645_14_heads_posts_card_hed

When I live in Bay City and Alpena, I experienced thundersnow many times. I can recall storms in 1964, 1967, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1978, and 1984. I moved to Grand Rapids in the spring of 1984 and in that time while there have been reports of thunder snow, I have only recalled one time and that was just a single flash (note many of the storms above had many flashes) and of course very heavy not lake effect snow falls. If Grand Rapids has a true thunder snowstorm before I die I will let you know.

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5 hours ago, westMJim said:

Here is some information on thunder snow

https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/scientists-learn-thundersnow-satellite-imagery/story?id=75431573&cid=clicksource_4380645_14_heads_posts_card_hed

When I live in Bay City and Alpena, I experienced thundersnow many times. I can recall storms in 1964, 1967, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1978, and 1984. I moved to Grand Rapids in the spring of 1984 and in that time while there have been reports of thunder snow, I have only recalled one time and that was just a single flash (note many of the storms above had many flashes) and of course very heavy not lake effect snow falls. If Grand Rapids has a true thunder snowstorm before I die I will let you know.

'65-85 the Golden Era of stormy-ness for the Mitt

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

It appears likely that this year will be yet another year that will feature #delayedspring.  The CFSv2 is trending the same way it started off for the month of Feb and we are seeing what this month is delivering.  If you look at the trends for next month, the model is sniffing out the holy grail that supports a pattern conducive for late season winter storms.  The all-important blocking up near Greenland.  It's not the only model, in fact, the JMA seasonal that came out yesterday and it is showing the same thing.  Late in the season, the NAO plays a big role, none more so than during the months of FEB-APR.  With that being said, here are some maps...

 

CFSv2...

Trends so far are starting to see the blocking up across eastern Canada and Greenland...an extremely wet pattern is shaping up....Bowling Ball season????  Snow enthusiasts....stay thirsty my friends!  Snow records will fall by the time this season ends for some of you on here who have had a tremendous start to this season.

 

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202103.gif

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.202103.gif

 

 

JMA...

1.png

 

Temp/Precip...pretty similar signal as the CFSv2...

 

Y202102.D0500_gl2.png

 

Y202102.D0500_gl0.png

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  • 3 weeks later...

That's a wrap!  This was the epitome of a "back-loaded" winter for Chicago and the most memorable comeback of Winter I've ever experienced.  The numbers below say speak for itself.  I was surprised to see that the avg temp ended up 0.1F BN after such a warm Dec and Jan.  Interestingly, precip was BN while in the snow dept it ended up much AN!  The brutal cold wasn't that much of a player over here as subzero readings at ORD were shy of the avg (12) days a typical winter season sees.

1.jpg

 

Now, I'll be honest, as a winter wx fan I'm already paying attn to next winter and some similar ideas are already coming to mind with high late blocking (esp Greenland) next cold season.  Low solar and cyclical patterns will be in the cards so there is hope for a good to great one next year without having to see so much warmth as the oceans cool this summer/autumn.

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I'm sorry, but if the current terminology is confusing to you then you're just dumb. "Plain language headlines", so does that mean an actual headline or just an announcement on the website or social media? 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

I'm sorry, but if the current terminology is confusing to you then you're just dumb. "Plain language headlines", so does that mean an actual headline or just an announcement on the website or social media? 

I didn't know what you were talking about, then I saw a tweet from NWS Hastings.  How much simpler do we need to make things?  My gosh.  The dumbing down of America continues.  If you can't figure out this terminology, you should probably pay more attention in English classes.  I showed this to one of our English teachers and she thought it was a joke.  

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The year is off to a slow start in terms of severe weather compared to the last decade and beyond. Only 24 tornadoes have been confirmed by the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) from Jan. 1 to March 1, 2021. That figure - although still a preliminary tornado count - is the lowest number of tornadoes compared to the past 16 years, according to the SPC.MidLateWinterTornadoes.jpg?w=632

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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25 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

The year is off to a slow start in terms of severe weather compared to the last decade and beyond. Only 24 tornadoes have been confirmed by the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) from Jan. 1 to March 1, 2021. That figure - although still a preliminary tornado count - is the lowest number of tornadoes compared to the past 16 years, according to the SPC.MidLateWinterTornadoes.jpg?w=632

That could quickly change in the next few months, but it seems there are less tornadoes in recent years.

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After such a warm start to the winter, its amazing what a ridiculously cold Feb could do to the overall temps for met Winter across the mid/south CONUS.

1.png

 

Looking ahead towards mid/late Spring, the latest Euro Seasonal is suggesting a very warm start to Spring once we get out of this colder pattern mid/late March for the Upper MW and central states.  The signal is for the SW/Southern ridge to build early in April and expand northward but may have a hard time pressing east.  

3.png

1.png

 

Interestingly, it has trended towards the CFSv2 showing a trough-like pattern in the east while the west may bake.  This could very well be a signal towards the summer pattern as the ridge retrogrades west and north mid/late summer.  As it looks right now, summer-like warmth may be off to a rapid start as we flip the calendar into April.  Early season Heat in May seems to me like a lock across TX/OK and the central/upper Plains.  If the blocking pattern sets up as being advertised in May, it's going to be a gloomy one for the eastern Sub.  It's the worst feeling seeing 50's and cloudy/chilly weather in May.

 

"Ridge Rider's" could be a dominant pattern this summer across parts of the Upper MW/GL's region.

 

4.png

 

2.png

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My ac just kicked on with excitement when I showed it those May maps. :lol:

No doubt about it, there will be at least one month of hell to pay for the cold and snow we've enjoyed.. 

Sad part is, in areas up around Clinton's part of the forum and west, then back through the desert SW, drought risks will be high as long range thinking would finally keep flex in the (becoming a faithful nemesis of mine) 3-4 yr resilience in keeping the ridges anchored to the SE.

We'll have a hot exit from this winter, just not in March or April. In other words, I don't disagree with Tom. 

Feels like it's been winter since September. Lol.

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The JMA seasonal came in and is suggesting a much different look for April compared to the Euro and CFSv2.  While the Euro does show blocking near Greenland/Eastern Canada, the CFSv2 does not, thus the warmer outlook for April.  Is this another example of the modeling under estimating the blocking up near Greenland??  It's been happening more often than not since last Autumn.  My guess is we will see the blocking.

1.png

 

Temp/Precip for April...early season warmth to build in the SW but no real push to the east as more seasonal temps are in the forecast.  Doesn't look to wet for most of the Sub which I do not necessarily believe.

Y202103.D0700_gl2.png

 

Y202103.D0700_gl0.png

 

What about May???  Blocking continues and SW heat showing no signs of letting up.  

2.png

 

Temp pattern similar as April...

Y202103.D0700_gl2.png

 

Precip...wetter for MW/GL's...

Y202103.D0700_gl0.png

 

 

In a nutshell, I do think we will see an early start to Summer like warmth across the Plains and heartland but how far north and east this pushes is still suspect.  The models in the near term never saw the -EPO developing and also +PNA pattern which is showing signs of popping.  Does this continue into April or not is the question??? Heck, does it continue into the Summer...???  The CFSv2 is indeed showing a strong signal at this stage across the western parts of North America.  I got a feeling 2021 will be the year we truly feel the effects of low solar and high lat blocking.

Summer clues from the CFSv2...

5.gif

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9 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

#SolarMin

299C2A3A-9AA4-4D29-86B4-63B3A24FA528.jpeg

2C0D7C48-6390-4D3C-A143-95008F09E948.jpeg

No suprise there. Dec and Jan torched despite respectable snowfall. Lincoln had no highs below 20 this winter outside of the 12 consecutive days (Feb 6-17).  Now every day in March so far has been above average. Even with cooler weather coming, it's got to end up as some kind of record for difference in temps in back to back months. Odd winter for sure, but I would probably give it an A+/A. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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31 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

No suprise there. Dec and Jan torched despite respectable snowfall. Lincoln had no highs below 20 this winter outside of the 12 consecutive days (Feb 6-17).  Now every day in March so far has been above average. Even with cooler weather coming, it's got to end up as some kind of record for difference in temps in back to back months. Odd winter for sure, but I would probably give it an A+/A. 

yep, relatively active and not that cold overall is my kind of winter. Mix in the extreme cold for a rare event and it's been a pretty good winter. Until this upcoming storm this weekend, we really haven't had any of those annoying close misses due to mixing problems etc either. Basically all my precip this winter has been snow which is even more impressive given how warm it has been.

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10 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

No suprise there. Dec and Jan torched despite respectable snowfall. Lincoln had no highs below 20 this winter outside of the 12 consecutive days (Feb 6-17).  Now every day in March so far has been above average. Even with cooler weather coming, it's got to end up as some kind of record for difference in temps in back to back months. Odd winter for sure, but I would probably give it an A+/A. 

Same. This winter will really be one of the weirdest. Unremarkable but so very incredibly remarkable as well. Won't be forgotten for years to come and yet barely an extreme statistic in the entirety of it. Odd is right.

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8 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Same. This winter will really be one of the weirdest. Unremarkable but so very incredibly remarkable as well. Won't be forgotten for years to come and yet barely an extreme statistic in the entirety of it. Odd is right.

I'm sure we will be seeing a lot more of these extreme patterns in the coming years as the meridional jet stream becomes more dominant than not.  The real problems arise when you have these extreme wx patterns come on the front end of the growing seasons or esp near harvest time.  That's a whole other topic of conversation.

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

I'm sure we will be seeing a lot more of these extreme patterns in the coming years as the meridional jet stream becomes more dominant than not.  The real problems arise when you have these extreme wx patterns come on the front end of the growing seasons or esp near harvest time.  That's a whole other topic of conversation.

True. Was thinking about this amongst other things about the variation we have and will see in our seasons over the next 2-3 years. 

I'm filing 2020-(currently ongoing) as a climate shift in my books. Winter was without a doubt, for the last 2 decades the hands down winners in snow surplus. You may as well have just called any storm with development characteristics a "Beast for the East".  I'm holding that all variables considered, 2020-21 is the year that put the "Winter back in the center" if ya get my drift. :)

I've been hinting at or expecting a turn in overall climate at min over our hemisphere and our continent for a good bit as well. Inverted blue "c" on SST maps is in our favor too. The decades of Nino/Nino risk, with exception of huge Nina in 2010, are officially over.

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15 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Same. This winter will really be one of the weirdest. Unremarkable but so very incredibly remarkable as well. Won't be forgotten for years to come and yet barely an extreme statistic in the entirety of it. Odd is right.

It was absolutely weird. The snow for snowboarding was the best it's been in a very long time most of the year, but it also started later than any time in years and ended very early too. I easily lost a month of riding, which is a huge part of the season, but we had more powder days (for Wisconsin) than I can recall having in a single year in a very long time. This winter was weird, a lot of the things that make a winter suck for winter lovers was there, yet there was also a lot of good things.

Personally it wasn't that good to me. The ski hill was absolutely slammed with people not having school, and November and March are usually the times when the regulars have the place to themselves, but we didn't really get that this year as season pass holder regulars. We basically jumped right into Christmas rush by opening on the 7th of Dec, then it all fell apart a little after President's Day, and March was easily half of what it normally is. I'd rather have the cold and a long season than warm and a lot of snow with a short season.

I really hope next winter is better. For snowboarding and skiing, you just want it to get very cold as early as possible and to stay cold as long as possible. This pattern really sucks for me, it got warm enough to destroy the ski hills, now it looks like we'll get snow and cold for a while, preventing me from doing outside and lake stuff.

 

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On 3/13/2021 at 1:12 PM, gimmesnow said:

It was absolutely weird. The snow for snowboarding was the best it's been in a very long time most of the year, but it also started later than any time in years and ended very early too. I easily lost a month of riding, which is a huge part of the season, but we had more powder days (for Wisconsin) than I can recall having in a single year in a very long time. This winter was weird, a lot of the things that make a winter suck for winter lovers was there, yet there was also a lot of good things.

Personally it wasn't that good to me. The ski hill was absolutely slammed with people not having school, and November and March are usually the times when the regulars have the place to themselves, but we didn't really get that this year as season pass holder regulars. We basically jumped right into Christmas rush by opening on the 7th of Dec, then it all fell apart a little after President's Day, and March was easily half of what it normally is. I'd rather have the cold and a long season than warm and a lot of snow with a short season.

I really hope next winter is better. For snowboarding and skiing, you just want it to get very cold as early as possible and to stay cold as long as possible. This pattern really sucks for me, it got warm enough to destroy the ski hills, now it looks like we'll get snow and cold for a while, preventing me from doing outside and lake stuff.

 

I'm thinking over the next few years or so (next 2, specifically) winters are going to be better and more our style.

The "cool" season actually has been long but the cold season has been brutally short. Again, weird.

I haven't started a lawnmower since before 10/15/2020, if I'm not mistaken.

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@BenNoll occasionally posts maps using the Euro/UKIE super blend model which does generally well in terms of LR forecasts.  We don't have a summer thread yet, so I'll post these maps here instead.  Taking a look at this general idea, it appears that there will be a dominant PAC NW/N Rockies ridge developing this summer.  Interestingly, the CFSv2 has been jumping all over this idea as well.  In similar fashion, this is a pattern I've seen before that produced those very hot summers in the western parts of North America back in '13 and '14.  I remember witnessing so many summer days with forest fires burning up in Canada.  Is something like that brewing for this summer?

Temp anomaly...

1.png

 

Here is a new map I have not seen before which illustrates Dew Point levels...I'm really excited to see the Monsoon season finally show up this year in the SW.  This should be a good indicator that the drought conditions could subside some by mid/late summer.

2.jpg

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@TomI know it is a long ways off, but do you have any initial thoughts on the 2021-2022 winter?  The reason I'm asking, is my assistant basketball coach is a farmer.  He listens to the Ag Talk Podcast daily and they had an agricultural meteorologist on the show.  The met. said they are predicting an epic winter.  Early frost/freeze and sustained cold, possibly record setting with abundant snow.  Was just wondering if you've seen any long term forecasts that might hint at this?  Thanks

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12 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

@TomI know it is a long ways off, but do you have any initial thoughts on the 2021-2022 winter?  The reason I'm asking, is my assistant basketball coach is a farmer.  He listens to the Ag Talk Podcast daily and they had an agricultural meteorologist on the show.  The met. said they are predicting an epic winter.  Early frost/freeze and sustained cold, possibly record setting with abundant snow.  Was just wondering if you've seen any long term forecasts that might hint at this?  Thanks

Indeed, I have been paying attn to next Winter!  I'm curious, where is the ag met from and did they provide info on their reasoning for their forecast?  Was it based on pure personal beliefs and/or pattern recognition?

The first clues I'm seeing for next winter is the continuation of weak La Nina conditions and my personal beliefs that there will be a lot of high lat blocking next season.  I've found that nature tends to have shorter 2-3 year cycles with regards to high lat blocking patterns.  I envision more of the same next cold season where we saw a west-based NAO Block, but the BIG difference next season will be the W NAMER ridge that we didn't see so much during last cold season.  There were episodes of it blossoming but did not entirely lock.  If this summers pattern prediction holds in the modeling, which are signalling a dominant west coast ridge, it will IMHO pave the way towards a blocking pattern in the NE PAC next winter. 

Secondly, if the Monsoon is in any way close to showing AN precip this summer, that to, will be a great sign for next Autumn/Winter.  Strong STJ???  I'm not sure how far south the early frosts/freezes come into the U.S., but certainly for Alberta Canada and places in SW/S Canada are in danger of crop loss.  I'm seeing a signal from the CFSv2 model suggesting early cold to develop again across western Canada.  It won't take much for a buckling jet stream in Sept to unleash that cold into the central/northern CONUS, esp if the ridging pattern sets up in Summer across the west coast.  There are many interesting features that could lead us into a colder winter but the biggest curve ball would be the Polar Vortex.  Does it disrupt or is it strong?  Or do we see an elongate PV??   As always, its a wait and see approach but this Summer is going to really give me a solid clue for next winter.  I think early heat in the Plains states will be followed by mid/late summer cool/wet periods.  I'm predicting a good growing season even though I'm going against some top analogs.  

If you find out who that ag met was, please post it on here.  Thanks for sharing!

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18 minutes ago, Tom said:

Indeed, I have been paying attn to next Winter!  I'm curious, where is the ag met from and did they provide info on their reasoning for their forecast?  Was it based on pure personal beliefs and/or pattern recognition?

The first clues I'm seeing for next winter is the continuation of weak La Nina conditions and my personal beliefs that there will be a lot of high lat blocking next season.  I've found that nature tends to have shorter 2-3 year cycles with regards to high lat blocking patterns.  I envision more of the same next cold season where we saw a west-based NAO Block, but the BIG difference next season will be the W NAMER ridge that we didn't see so much during last cold season.  There were episodes of it blossoming but did not entirely lock.  If this summers pattern prediction holds in the modeling, which are signalling a dominant west coast ridge, it will IMHO pave the way towards a blocking pattern in the NE PAC next winter. 

Secondly, if the Monsoon is in any way close to showing AN precip this summer, that to, will be a great sign for next Autumn/Winter.  Strong STJ???  I'm not sure how far south the early frosts/freezes come into the U.S., but certainly for Alberta Canada and places in SW/S Canada are in danger of crop loss.  I'm seeing a signal from the CFSv2 model suggesting early cold to develop again across western Canada.  It won't take much for a buckling jet stream in Sept to unleash that cold into the central/northern CONUS, esp if the ridging pattern sets up in Summer across the west coast.  There are many interesting features that could lead us into a colder winter but the biggest curve ball would be the Polar Vortex.  Does it disrupt or is it strong?  Or do we see an elongate PV??   As always, its a wait and see approach but this Summer is going to really give me a solid clue for next winter.  I think early heat in the Plains states will be followed by mid/late summer cool/wet periods.  I'm predicting a good growing season even though I'm going against some top analogs.  

If you find out who that ag met was, please post it on here.  Thanks for sharing!

I will get ahold of my friend and ask his name.  I listened to the segment, but he didn't go into many details.  It was from several months back.  The met. said it is from their information and charts, but not too specific.  He really kept focusing on the early frost and freeze potential and how it could have devastating effects on the crops and how farmers should try to get things planted if possible this spring and not wait too long.  

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1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I will get ahold of my friend and ask his name.  I listened to the segment, but he didn't go into many details.  It was from several months back.  The met. said it is from their information and charts, but not too specific.  He really kept focusing on the early frost and freeze potential and how it could have devastating effects on the crops and how farmers should try to get things planted if possible this spring and not wait too long.  

Makes sense and a good call to plant early as the pattern warms up next month.  

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Makes sense and a good call to plant early as the pattern warms up next month.  

He just texted me back.  When he went to click on the episode it no longer loads, he thinks they only keep the last couple of months.  Hackett Financial Advisors is the company, but couldn't find a specific meteorologist.  The are an agricultural company that helps farmers with all aspects of their businesses.  

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11 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

He just texted me back.  When he went to click on the episode it no longer loads, he thinks they only keep the last couple of months.  Hackett Financial Advisors is the company, but couldn't find a specific meteorologist.  The are an agricultural company that helps farmers with all aspects of their businesses.  

I’ll take a look deeper into them when I get a chance.  👍 

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9 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Saw where the globe is actually running a negative temperature anomaly and has posted some cold month numbers for February that hadn't been seen in awhile. This is great news.

Times are changing, for sure.

Total global temperatures for February 2021 was 0.65 C warmer than 20th century average.  Smallest AN since 2014

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  • 2 weeks later...

Minus the two week period in February with the record cold, this winter was pretty much the complete opposite in terms of the relentless winter that was predicted (once again).

Basically the entire forum was well above average for temps and some areas did pretty good for snow, but even that ended early for most people with no snow in March.

Dec Feb precip.png

Feb 2021.png

December 2020.png

Jan 2021.png

November 2020.png

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2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Minus the two week period in February with the record cold, this winter was pretty much the complete opposite in terms of the relentless winter that was predicted (once again).

Basically the entire forum was well above average for temps and some areas did pretty good for snow, but even that ended early for most people with no snow in March.

Dec Feb precip.png

Feb 2021.png

December 2020.png

Jan 2021.png

November 2020.png

Fair enough. Thank you for sharing the maps.

I'm glad we didn't get what our friends on the other side of the globe received this year. We wouldn't have been ready for it. (Looking at you, TX)lol. Jk. 

Global temps bomb for 4 months and America gets shorted on winter. Lol. 

I'm not complaining. It snowed over 10" here this winter. 

Sometimes we just have to accept that a winter is going to be average, with teases of the extreme. We got it, in 2020-21.

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Texas would definitely take exception.  This winter beat the stuffing out of us and the infrastructure.  If Ft. Worth had not been prepared there would have been many more crises.  

As it is, I have 15 shrubs to dig out.  Fewer than my neighbor.  But many plants bit the dust this winter.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The Euro seasonal came out yesterday and is really advertising its warm bias across the nation.  Highly doubt all of the entire CONUS is AN given the blocking pattern setting up for next month.

1.png

2.png

 

3.png

 

Compare the above 500mb pattern to the CFSv2....early Summer Sizzle in the SW is a lock while those east of the Rockies look to be in an active/wet pattern.

 

4.png

As mentioned in the April thread, planting season is questionable this year if it continues to illustrate a very wet/cool pattern into mid May.  I'm hopeful for a late month warm surge into an early June heatwave as my prediction going forward.  It's not going to be a really warm and lovely pattern to finish off April based off of the Euro Weeklies and CFSv2 weeklies.  

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23 hours ago, Tom said:

The Euro seasonal came out yesterday and is really advertising its warm bias across the nation.  Highly doubt all of the entire CONUS is AN given the blocking pattern setting up for next month.

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Compare the above 500mb pattern to the CFSv2....early Summer Sizzle in the SW is a lock while those east of the Rockies look to be in an active/wet pattern.

 

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As mentioned in the April thread, planting season is questionable this year if it continues to illustrate a very wet/cool pattern into mid May.  I'm hopeful for a late month warm surge into an early June heatwave as my prediction going forward.  It's not going to be a really warm and lovely pattern to finish off April based off of the Euro Weeklies and CFSv2 weeklies.  

 The blocking also doesn't allow any extreme cold into the country.  My next 15 days are mostly AN in actual overall temps. After a cool/wet 4-6 days after this weekend, it looks to warm up significantly again.    Especially with cloud cover the nights will be warmer.   This has been an awesome start to spring.  

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34 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

 The blocking also doesn't allow any extreme cold into the country.  My next 15 days are mostly AN in actual overall temps. After a cool/wet 4-6 days after this weekend, it looks to warm up significantly again.    Especially with cloud cover the nights will be warmer.   This has been an awesome start to spring.  

Yup, a -NAO doesn't always imply cooler wx for the GL's region.  It all depends now on what the PNA and EPO do in the LR.

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The JMA seasonal just came in last night and basically agrees with the Euro & CFSv2 weeklies for the month of May.

1.png

 

Temp/Precip....wet & cool to rule...there is hope of a late month surge of warmth coming out of the SW/W later in the month.  That's my prediction and I'm holding onto that idea.

The model trended colder for the eastern CONUS compared to last run, esp the GL's region...

 

Y202104.D0600_gl2.png

 

Y202104.D0600_gl0.png

 

 

FWIW, the next two months of June/Aug don't show any signs of excessive heat, similar to what the CFSv2 is advertising for the summer and NOT what the NMME/CanSIPS models are showing.  Those outlets suggesting a long summer torch may be on the verge of busting bc I don't see it happening, unless you live in the SW/W coasts.

 

 

 

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Temp...

Y202104.D0600_gl2.png

 

 

 

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Temp...

Y202104.D0600_gl2.png

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The CPC came out with their seasonal outlooks today and these are the maps for May.

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Since we don't have a summer thread yet, here are the summer maps...the signal is there for a central CONUS trough-like pattern and I'm really digging the SW Monsoon signal.  Speaking of which, the ECMWF-UKMET superblend model also agree.

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The SW Monsoon is going to be a + signal for next year's cold season I believe.  Late season hurricanes into the Baja???  The SE is going to see a lot of hurricane hits this year.  Watch out Florida.

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49*. After Equinox.  🧐
 

That is all.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The last snow fall of one inch or more at Grand Rapids this winter season was on February 27th.  Unless there is a surprise snow fall of a inch or more in May (it has happened) This winter season will become the 5th earliest that has happened. The earliest was February 19, 1908. Then February 20th 1945 then February 21st 2009 and February 22nd 1910. This seasons snow fall total (if no snow falls in May) will end up being the least at Grand Rapids since the winter of 1982/83 It will be the 2nd lowest amount since the reporting location moved to the new location and just the 4th time less than 50” fell at the current location and that is going back to 1962.

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Rolling through the home stretch on spring, figured I'd post the map of my 14 day rainfall. Very blessed here to not have droughts this year, as the west has begun hoisting drought emergencies yesterday with much of the region under drought of some form.

 

rainrfc.336hr.png

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  • 3 weeks later...

 ORD ended up being the 3rd driest Spring on record with only 3.75" of precip.  It was the 7th warmest with an avg temp of 52.1F.  I'm looking forward to summer!

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