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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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La Nina Winters usually start abruptly and give away to a very snowy December (Wouldnt that be a change from the last 2 Decembers w very little snowfall, if any around mby) and at some point end sometime in Winter. Hopefully, Winter continues after a brief "Thaw." Autumn tends to be a mild one.

 

Btw: I think Dec 2017 was a top5 December for the Detroit Metro Area!

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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The JMA seasonal came out the other day and I like what I'm seeing in terms of consistency.  It appears we may indeed have a solid chance for a seasonal September and not the torchy ones of recent years.  The theme going forward is like a broken record for those in the W/SW as the ridge does not want to move anytime soon.  Unfortunately, the drought is going to get worse and chances of precip are not looking pretty.  

 

Taking a look at the 500mb, it is almost identical to the maps I posted in a previous post whereby there are ridges off both North American coasts.  This blocking pattern is showing up on numerous other climate models which should provide confidence that it'll develop.  I don't know about you, but I am looking forward to a normal September!

 

Temps/Precip...the EC hurricane threat is not as great as it once looked but still looks like a favorable pattern for U.S. hits in the GOM and along the EC.

 

 

Y202008.D0900_gl2.png

 

 

Y202008.D0900_gl0.png

 

 

SST's...the notable trend is for a much larger basin-wide cold pool over the equatorial PAC and warmer NE PAC warm blob.

 

Y202008.D0900_gls.png

1.png

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I can definitely go for a normal "Autumn" w no snowfall, until after "Thanksgiving." End of November is perfect for snowfall to begin our Winter. Anything earlier than that gets me a little concerned. Even a Thanksgiving snowstorm is acceptable, but nothing sooner than that.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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This from NOAA:

 

NOAA Precipitation Outlook – Winter 2020-2021

NOAA is predicting above average snowfall this winter in Montana, Wyoming, and the Great Lakes area with an increased chance of precipitation in Northern Colorado starting in March. <_>

 

 

 

 

Lets not forget, NOAA is usually very conservative, so for them to predict above normal snowfall for the Great Lakes, means that this Winter will ROCK N ROLL BABY! :D

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Let's take a dive deeper into the JMA seasonal for the all important months of Oct/Nov as we get into the heart of Autumn, as well as, what the new developing LRC may look like.  First off, what has been a common denominator based off of all the global climate models is some sort of SW/W coast ridge throughout the Autumn months.  Given how the pattern has been so persistent around here in the desert SW and west coast, I got a feeling that this drought is going to feedback and just park a ridge out here till maybe in December when the jet really strengthens and troughs may begin to move in.  Until then, however, I highly doubt this SW ridge goes away anytime soon.  Blocking patterns this season are going to play a very important role IMO, but it's the high latitudes I'm more interested in to see if there is any chance of a good snow season for our Sub.

With that being said, here are some maps that show the Oct/Nov 500mb predicted patterns along with temp/precip maps.

 

Oct....slightly AN with near normal precip...hurricane season looks to continue along the EC.

 

Y202008.D0900_gl2.png

 

Y202008.D0900_gl0.png

 

 

Nov...temp/precip pattern resembles a typical La Nina look with an active northern stream, but with the blocking across both coasts of North America, it leaves a corridor of seasonal temps across the central CONUS and the likelihood of an early build up of Arctic cold across W/NW NAMER.  We have been seeing this type of early winter pattern from our friends to the North in recent years where Winter gets going early and often.  Let's see if this is going to continue this year.

 

If you look at the last frame below, the W PAC may come alive both in Oct and Nov which is a Big clue to see if we start to see re-curving Typhoon's.  It has been a non-existent typhoon season out in the west PAC so to see the model sniffing out some activity is a sign the new LRC pattern may be indeed igniting some activity in Oct/Nov.  If you take a close look at the precip pattern in the frame just above for the month of Oct, you can see a sliver of AN precip just east or over Japan.  If you want troughs to develop across the eastern 2/3rd's of the nation (utilizing the East Asian Rule) this is something to look for.  The same ideas stand for the month of November below.

 

 

Y202008.D0900_gl2.png

 

 

Y202008.D0900_gl0.png

 

 

Lastly, the SST forecast is steadfast with the ideal of a basin wide La Nina and focusing the coldest waters near the ENSO 3.4 region.

 

Y202008.D0900_gls.png

 

 

Y202008.D0900_gls.png

2.png

3.png

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It's interesting to see JB calling for a mild eastern Winter.  I don't think I've ever seen him call for a warm cold season (Nov-Mar) across the east. Here is his temp forecast and snowfall forecast.  One this is for certain, there are going to be a TON of cutters and N Stream sliders/riders.

 

 

 

  

1.jpg

2.png

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It's interesting to see JB calling for a mild eastern Winter.  I don't think I've ever seen him call for a warm cold season (Nov-Mar) across the east. Here is his temp forecast and snowfall forecast.  One this is for certain, there are going to be a TON of cutters and N Stream sliders/riders.

I could sure live with these maps.  2 years ago his call for above normal snowfall came true for most of Nebraska during the incredible winter of 2018-2019.  I'm just not used to him calling for above normal temps in the Northeast.  I don't recall that in the last few years of his forecasts.

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I could sure live with these maps. 2 years ago his call for above normal snowfall came true for most of Nebraska during the incredible winter of 2018-2019. I'm just not used to him calling for above normal temps in the Northeast. I don't recall that in the last few years of his forecasts.

He's a mega weenie so it is definitely surprising to see him forecast a dud winter for his backyard.

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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He's a mega weenie so it is definitely surprising to see him forecast a dud winter for his backyard.

Yes and also an entertainer. I would never pay for his subscription, unless you like to be entertained by him, then, sure why not.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Some interesting data came in last night off the JMA weeklies which suggest that by Week 2 a very active pattern could set up across the MW/GL's region.  The temp pattern below is conducive for a battle between early Autumn and late Summer.  This is a prime set up for Severe Wx and leads me to believe it'll be a bumpy ride for some as we open up the month of Sept.

 

 

 

Y202008.D1912_gl2.png

 

Y202008.D1912_gl0.png

 

 

Looking down the road, we see the model establish a Bearing Sea trough for Week 2-3 of Sept and a good signal for W PAC Typhoon's....could this be the pattern for Sept where we see numerous CF's slide down the leeward side of the Rockies into the central Plains and bleed east???  It's looking better each run as we get closer to the first month of met Autumn.

 

 

Y202008.D1912_gl0.png

 

 

 

Temps...

 

Y202008.D1912_gl2.png

3.png

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Today it the 3rd Thursday of the month and that means the updated CPC long range guess is now out.  Their guess as of today is for a warm fall in our area with near average precipitation. Then for the upcoming winter season their guess is for a equal chance in the temperatures and above average in the precipitation. So we shall see how that plays out.

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:lol:

old-farmers-almanac-winter-2021-15978696

Literally what is climo?

 

That map is lazy and looks like a 5 year old put it together.

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Check out "Alaska." That is the best part of all.

Holy hell.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Is it too early to talk SNOW???  The last 3 runs off the Euro weeklies were showing some early signs of Winter heading into the N Rockies but now it extends into the opening days of October.  Some individual EPS members are hinting at some snow for our western and northern members.  It won't be long till be start tracking autumn storm systems and I really have a good feeling about this season producing some very strong systems.  Could be a banner year for big dogs.  Just a feeling.

 

 

1.png

2.png

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Is it too early to talk SNOW??? The last 3 runs off the Euro weeklies were showing some early signs of Winter heading into the N Rockies but now it extends into the opening days of October. Some individual EPS members are hinting at some snow for our western and northern members. It won't be long till be start tracking autumn storm systems and I really have a good feeling about this season producing some very strong systems. Could be a banner year for big dogs. Just a feeling.

Excited to start seeing more of this!
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Is it too early to talk SNOW??? The last 3 runs off the Euro weeklies were showing some early signs of Winter heading into the N Rockies but now it extends into the opening days of October. Some individual EPS members are hinting at some snow for our western and northern members. It won't be long till be start tracking autumn storm systems and I really have a good feeling about this season producing some very strong systems. Could be a banner year for big dogs. Just a feeling.

Doesn’t even seem possible with the hot stretch we’re currently experiencing. Just seeing a snow map is exciting.

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Last year, Fargo had a heat wave where it reached 90 in mid-late September, and then they received a foot of snow in early October.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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The 1st Snows of the season are looking like a possibility across the N Rockies as the seasons strongest trough comes down out of Canada to open up the 1st month of met Autumn.  Boy, what a change this will be and refreshing for you guys out in the Plains as Autumn settles in. You know me, I love it when nature aligns with the calendar.  This would be right on cue!

 

 

1.png

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Check out the track on hurricane Laura this morning if ya'll get the chance.

 

If we were to give the US a winter look with that storm....its a 2 footer here. :)

That snow map would mean im in the 40s somewhere there.

 

This summer is going to go out roaring and fall/winter is coming in that way too.

 

There were small hints of this in the last few years seasonal transitions. Long term patterns that still overwhelmed the changes. I think this year, there's nothing to snap us back to warm after the cool/cold starts coming.

 

It's going to be wild. Getcha popcorn ready.

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Check out the track on hurricane Laura this morning if ya'll get the chance.

 

If we were to give the US a winter look with that storm....its a 2 footer here. :)

That snow map would mean im in the 40s somewhere there.

 

This summer is going to go out roaring and fall/winter is coming in that way too.

 

There were small hints of this in the last few years seasonal transitions. Long term patterns that still overwhelmed the changes. I think this year, there's nothing to snap us back to warm after the cool/cold starts coming.

 

It's going to be wild. Getcha popcorn ready.

Your thoughts mimic what I was just thinking as I looked at that map again. The last 3/4 years have brought early autumn snows in this region. It seems more like a longer term trend. The glaciers are actually building back up there instead of melting away! #DeathtoWarmingstas

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Your thoughts mimic what I was just thinking as I looked at that map again. The last 3/4 years have brought early autumn snows in this region. It seems more like a longer term trend. The glaciers are actually building back up there instead of melting away! #DeathtoWarmingstas

Yes sir. Here's to never EVER believing the lies. Even if it cost me my desires 16 years ago. It was a choice and I'm thankful for the road I took.

 

40+ years of cold is on its way. The EC/WC will believe the warming lies for several more years as the longer term patterns will cause rises of up to 14° in the east/ne like it did back in the mid 1700s, parts of the 1600s as well.

 

History doesn't lie though. Never has. Just have to know where to look. Classic winters are on the way. Ive always read that in the very old days tge trees would get really strong and thick in the years preceeding hard snow. I've seen that in the last 3 years here. Seasons of abundance and overabundance. I know what follows that.

 

Alaska warming the last 18 months and becoming more wet and snowy is actually more evidence of this fact. Downstream over the CONUS and North America will be a longer term cold pool, and retrograde in severe wx back over the traditional high plains. Its happening.

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Yes sir. Here's to never EVER believing the lies. Even if it cost me my desires 16 years ago. It was a choice and I'm thankful for the road I took.

 

40+ years of cold is on its way. The EC/WC will believe the warming lies for several more years as the longer term patterns will cause rises of up to 14° in the east/ne like it did back in the mid 1700s, parts of the 1600s as well.

 

History doesn't lie though. Never has. Just have to know where to look. Classic winters are on the way. Ive always read that in the very old days tge trees would get really strong and thick in the years preceeding hard snow. I've seen that in the last 3 years here. Seasons of abundance and overabundance. I know what follows that.

 

Alaska warming the last 18 months and becoming more wet and snowy is actually more evidence of this fact. Downstream over the CONUS and North America will be a longer term cold pool, and retrograde in severe wx back over the traditional high plains. Its happening.

Good luck with that.  History hasn't ever dealt with 7 billion plus people.  Bet you can't find "data" for that in your weather history.  The world is warming.  The climate scientific community agrees with that.  But i guess you'll trust billionaire oil execs over hardworking real people.  Ignorance is bliss i guess.  Say Hi to your masters at Halliburton.   I know those nasty liberals are out to spread lies and scare you!!!  taxes!!! ahhhhhhh  

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Next person to bring up AGW in any of these threads gets a warm and rainy winter.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Next person to bring up AGW in any of these threads gets a warm and rainy winter.

Low blow friend! Lol. Ouch!

Keep the gloves up. That's getting personal right there. You can call me an idiot all you want to, but quit fuffing with my snow! :lol:

Thems fightin' words man. Lol

 

I thought we were only here to find the one person we disagreed with and write assumptions at them. Guess I was mistaken....

 

Is "longer-term, wavelength-driven, possibly apocalyptic, covid-19, possibly Trump-induced climactic pattern shift" a better and more acceptable term or should I tailor it a bit?

 

I'm seriously ready for fall. Very very much. It's gonna be "yuuuge".

 

Your post was still more worthy of a response. :lol:

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The recent IRI multi-model ensemble paints a warm/dry Autumn for many of us...

 

SON20_NAm_tmp.gif

SON20_NAm_pcp.gif

 

 

By the time Winter comes around, the pattern changes to what looks like a lot of blocking up near Greenland/Arctic...this model tends to have a warm bias as does the JAMSTEC.

 

 

 

DJF21_NAm_tmp.gif

 

DJF21_NAm_pcp.gif

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ET3F47NEHJGBJGYJN2PVMONHYA.jpg

 

:blink:

Gotta give em credit, they change their terminology each year.

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Generally speaking, Arctic temps this past Summer have been hovering near normal up until recently when norms begin the seasonal cooling, arctic temps have stayed AN.  If you look at the tail end, however, temps are now beginning to slide south as the Autumn pattern takes shape way up north across the Arctic regions.

 

 

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2020.png

 

 

 

I looked at several models and the overall theme as we open up met Autumn is for the Arctic regions to cool off quickly, more importantly, the northern parts of Canada are expected to build up an early season cold pool as the North American Vortex takes shape...AGAIN!  It has been a repeating pattern these past few years and something that I'm curiously looking into to see if this is a general climatic shift.  Anyhow, as the saying goes..."If you build it, it will come"...like in years past, if you build the glacier the cold will come.  Its nice to see the GFS and CFS model jumping on the idea of snow falling early and often across our neighbor to the north.

 

gfs_asnow_namer_65.png

 

 

 

 

It also appears likely that Eurasia will have a significant increase in snow cover as Summer quickly transitions into Winter across Siberia.  All those forest fires up in the Arctic regions this past summer in parts of Siberia will be a thing of the past once the Snow begins to fall and spread throughout the region.  I've been watching the CFS model over the past few weeks and its been lock steady showing an expansion of snow cover.  Today's run provides us an example of what we may see in the coming weeks as the new pattern evolves.  My personal belief is that this year something different is happening over the northern latitudes.

 

 

October 1st...

 

 

20100100_2600.gif

 

 

On our side of the Pole, the theme has been for widespread snowfall across Canada and the NW Territories.

 

 

October 1st...

 

20100100_2600.gif

 

 

 

Looking ahead, I'm keeping a close eye on the models and their handling of blocking in the extended.  The trend among the models has been stronger blocking where we need it most for those who want to see a solid winter (like many of us do as winter wx enthusiasts).  Could the blocking be a head fake??  Sure, just like what happened in recent years but I got a funny feeling this may be THE year.  Finally.

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Generally speaking, Arctic temps this past Summer have been hovering near normal up until recently when norms begin the seasonal cooling, arctic temps have stayed AN.  If you look at the tail end, however, temps are now beginning to slide south as the Autumn pattern takes shape way up north across the Arctic regions.

 

 

Good stuff Tom as usual!! You always get me pumped up for the winter, I love your research and hopefully we can all score a fast start to winter! 

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"cough" ..... check out that Aleutian blob too. :)

 

Not going to have any problem with dynamics or spin in the atmosphere thats for sure.

Yup, I’m interested to see how these storms spin up next week and all of September in the Bearing Sea! Those crab fisherman gonna be rocking and rolling the high seas!

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Good luck with that. History hasn't ever dealt with 7 billion plus people. Bet you can't find "data" for that in your weather history. The world is warming. The climate scientific community agrees with that. But i guess you'll trust billionaire oil execs over hardworking real people. Ignorance is bliss i guess. Say Hi to your masters at Halliburton. I know those nasty liberals are out to spread lies and scare you!!! taxes!!! ahhhhhhh

The sooner you realize the “scientists” are out for the same thing (money) the “oil execs” are, the sooner you’ll start to piece things together. And when you finally figure out which side lies more to get their way you’ll finally get it. Oh and there is this one small detail that doesn’t give a crap how many people there are. It’s called the sun.

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"Alright, Alright, Alright..."...it's that time of year when I start thinking about "cooler" thoughts and the Autumn season ahead along with a glimpse at what the models are showing for the upcoming cold season.  Is anyone else thinking the same???  While we are enduring what most of us can say are the "dog days of summer", it won't be long till we are enjoying Labor Day weekend and the unofficial end to Summer.  The question is, will the wx pattern in Sept present the same theme we have seen for several years in a row, whereby summer weather continues into Sept???  Let's see what the models have to say about this.

 

I looked at the JMA/CFSv2/Euro/UKMET seasonal runs and the common feature from all of them is the development of some sort of ridge out west and across eastern Canada, perhaps near Greenland if you believe the CFSv2.  This such 500mb pattern would "flip the script" of the string of warm to hot Sept's in recent years.  Do I believe them???  Well, my gut says Yes, but then the voice in my head says..."don't fall for it!"  It's interesting to see the majority of the models agree with a very similar 500mb pattern.  What about temps/precip patterns???

 

The JMA shows this...

 

Y202007.D0500_gl2.png

 

 

 

Y202007.D0500_gl0.png

 

 

 

The CFSv2 has been rather consistent with the overall pattern and showing near normal temps east of the Rockies, similar to the JMA.  The Euro seasonal is not as cool and holds onto the idea that warmer conditions will prevail, however, with the aforementioned 500mb pattern it is showing I'd be cautious of this scenario.

 

What about the UKIE???  Well, I don't get access to the individual runs but the public site allows you to see multi-month runs and they show the same signal for a ridge out west and off the coast of eastern Canada.

 

2cat_20200701_z500_months24_global_deter

 

 

 

Temps...seasonal central, warm west and east....

 

 

2cat_20200701_temp2m_months24_global_det

 

Precip...very wet eastern 2/3rd's of the nation...

 

2cat_20200701_prec_months24_global_deter

 

 

 

 

In short, I'm looking forward to seeing the trends in the models over the coming weeks to come.  Will they continue to show consistency as we move along???  I will be pondering on these ideas during the remaining days/weeks of Summer.  Later this week I'll dive deeper into the Autumn season as a whole and what could be a winter season that shall finally have some real deal blocking.

Oh, here we go, found it....ya, it def did not "see" the NE PAC ridge....

5.png

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The CFSv2 trending towards a stronger La Nina and predicting its peak dip in temps to occur right when the new LRC is developing during Oct/Nov.  Latest model data suggest a Moderate to borderline Strong Nina status late Autumn.

 

Latest subsurface SST anomalies...quite a cold pool (-3C/-4C) forming right underneath the 3.4 and 3.0 regions...

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

 

1.gif

2.gif

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The CFSv2 trending towards a stronger La Nina and predicting its peak dip in temps to occur right when the new LRC is developing during Oct/Nov. Latest model data suggest a Moderate to borderline Strong Nina status late Autumn.

 

Latest subsurface SST anomalies...quite a cold pool (-3C/-4C) forming right underneath the 3.4 and 3.0 regions...

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

Was just doing some checking on ENSO, myself. Cannot help but notice that deepening of cold in 3.4 and shifting back to 1 coincides very well with the cold pool development over Canada snd the central US.

 

A lot could change, but this could time very well with a future dated cold frontal passage if my thoughts leading out 60-70 days hold true. Jackpot.

The whole SST map is in favor of hard nasty cold so I guess if it doesn't work out, I'll learn a new way to fail. Lol.

 

Early call, cold dry start with snow,

Mediocre January,

Winter onslaught from February out til April.

 

Going to be a rough and stormy fall.

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