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Winter & Spring 2021 Discussion


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1 hour ago, Slowpoke said:

Welcome to the board but more importantly welcome to Michigan! Looking forward to your thoughts on your first Michigan winter. I split my time between our house which is about 20 miles due west of Port Huron in the “thumb” and our cabin which is about 30 miles due south of Gaylord in northern lower Michigan. You’re going to hear lots of explanations of how our state is described by like the UP and up north and the thumb and snow belts, lots more but any questions ask away, again welcome!

Good to see you in here Slowpoke! Occasionally Chances14 will drop in with a post too. Iirc he's in Imlay City

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The JMA seasonal came in last week and the apparent theme heading into December is to expect a warmer and drier month overall.  Not much change from last month, except for a slightly cooler central Plains and Upper MW compared to last months run.  It has shrunk the AN (+2-3C) pool over the Rockies/Plains into the 4 corners region.  What could be the big wild card for this month over into the eastern Sub is the signal for a N ATL ridge.  I will say, recent runs of the Euro Weeklies along with the GEFS long range (35 day), both indicate a growing block over eastern Canada and Greenland.  Not sure if the global models are just missing this signal or not but the way the LRC has been setting up this Autumn IMO it does allow for ridging to grow in this region which can lead to seasonal/BN temps as troughs dig in the East.  I think that is why you see a sliver of near avg temps along the EC.

December...

Temp...

Y202011.D0700_gl2.png

 

Precip and Velocity pattern..

 

Y202010.D0800_gl0.png

 

One other thing that caught my attn was the model is seeing a trough over Japan which should correlate into a trough across the East.  In essence, the model may be struggling to figure out how deep of a trough may develop next month over the eastern CONUS, esp if you engage a Greenland Block.  Some interesting things to ponder on for the all-important Holidays.

1.png

 

 

As we head into January, it appear the MJO may be heading into the favorable colder phases but the location of the N PAC ridge may not play ball.  The northern stream will be on fire and the northern half of our Sub locked in AN precip and prob AN snowfall.  From the looks of this temp pattern, it sure looks like a potential battle zone over the I-80 corridor into the lower lakes region.

Temp...

Y202011.D0700_gl2.png

 

Precip and Velocity pattern...

 

Y202011.D0700_gl0.png

 

Looking at the N Hemisphere 500mb map below, it does show the development of the Greenland Block and when I compared it to last months run, it grew stronger.  Again, this is a region I've been paying attn to this Autumn that has seen blocking develop during Oct/Nov.

 

2.png

 

 

Finally, Feb could end up being a banner month, esp if the model continues to advertise the Greenland Block in future runs as it is showing now.  For this run, however, it's not as potent but the signal is there and can lead towards more suppression.  With that being said, you can see the model is bleeding more cold air into the central CONUS with BN temps in the Plains/MW/Upper MW and a wet signal for northern and eastern Sub.

Temp...

Y202011.D0700_gl2.png

 

Precip and Velocity pattern...again, it appears a favorable MJO may be in the works....

 

Y202011.D0700_gl0.png

 

The N Hemisphere 500mb pattern showing an ominous trough over western NAMER with the coldest anomalies centered in North America for both Jan and Feb.  Is this the Winter that will be remembered for most of North America and take center stage???  It certainly has started that way with many headlines so far...let's hope it can continue into 2021!

 

3.png

 

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35 minutes ago, westMJim said:

I recorded 0.49" of rain fall overnight. At this time it is cloudy with some light rain and a little wind with a temperature of 52. I might take a ride over to the lake later today it see the waves if the wind picks up.

Seeing that I now have posted a couple of time is the wrong thread I guess I better take a better look at where I am posting in the morning.  

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

The JMA seasonal came in last week and the apparent theme heading into December is to expect a warmer and drier month overall.  Not much change from last month, except for a slightly cooler central Plains and Upper MW compared to last months run.  It has shrunk the AN (+2-3C) pool over the Rockies/Plains into the 4 corners region.  What could be the big wild card for this month over into the eastern Sub is the signal for a N ATL ridge.  I will say, recent runs of the Euro Weeklies along with the GEFS long range (35 day), both indicate a growing block over eastern Canada and Greenland.  Not sure if the global models are just missing this signal or not but the way the LRC has been setting up this Autumn IMO it does allow for ridging to grow in this region which can lead to seasonal/BN temps as troughs dig in the East.  I think that is why you see a sliver of near avg temps along the EC.

December...

Temp...

Y202011.D0700_gl2.png

 

Precip and Velocity pattern..

 

Y202010.D0800_gl0.png

 

One other thing that caught my attn was the model is seeing a trough over Japan which should correlate into a trough across the East.  In essence, the model may be struggling to figure out how deep of a trough may develop next month over the eastern CONUS, esp if you engage a Greenland Block.  Some interesting things to ponder on for the all-important Holidays.

1.png

 

 

As we head into January, it appear the MJO may be heading into the favorable colder phases but the location of the N PAC ridge may not play ball.  The northern stream will be on fire and the northern half of our Sub locked in AN precip and prob AN snowfall.  From the looks of this temp pattern, it sure looks like a potential battle zone over the I-80 corridor into the lower lakes region.

Temp...

Y202011.D0700_gl2.png

 

Precip and Velocity pattern...

 

Y202011.D0700_gl0.png

 

Looking at the N Hemisphere 500mb map below, it does show the development of the Greenland Block and when I compared it to last months run, it grew stronger.  Again, this is a region I've been paying attn to this Autumn that has seen blocking develop during Oct/Nov.

 

2.png

 

 

Finally, Feb could end up being a banner month, esp if the model continues to advertise the Greenland Block in future runs as it is showing now.  For this run, however, it's not as potent but the signal is there and can lead towards more suppression.  With that being said, you can see the model is bleeding more cold air into the central CONUS with BN temps in the Plains/MW/Upper MW and a wet signal for northern and eastern Sub.

Temp...

Y202011.D0700_gl2.png

 

Precip and Velocity pattern...again, it appears a favorable MJO may be in the works....

 

Y202011.D0700_gl0.png

 

The N Hemisphere 500mb pattern showing an ominous trough over western NAMER with the coldest anomalies centered in North America for both Jan and Feb.  Is this the Winter that will be remembered for most of North America and take center stage???  It certainly has started that way with many headlines so far...let's hope it can continue into 2021!

 

3.png

 

I actually buy that for a runout on the winter. If we recall, It was my "option 2" part on my list. I'm pretty well sure we have a warning blast coming in again before a relent then a good 60 day onslaught so this model would be the only one that literally carries that. I like it. Getting December to be memorable is about like pulling my own teeth out but we may snag a brief Thanksgiving "special" on this end or a small spillover into December.

My "antennae" are perked up again anyway...

".Is this the Winter that will be remembered for most of North America and take center stage??? ""

----Wrong or right, I say "YES". 100 percent "YES".

:)

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5 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I actually buy that for a runout on the winter. If we recall, It was my "option 2" part on my list. I'm pretty well sure we have a warning blast coming in again before a relent then a good 60 day onslaught so this model would be the only one that literally carries that. I like it. Getting December to be memorable is about like pulling my own teeth out but we may snag a brief Thanksgiving "special" on this end or a small spillover into December.

My "antennae" are perked up again anyway...

".Is this the Winter that will be remembered for most of North America and take center stage??? ""

----Wrong or right, I say "YES". 100 percent "YES".

:)

Seems like a big December here all but guarantees a dud January. I'd be fine with some snow at Christmas and then a rocking heart of winter as those JMA maps are hinting at.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Seems like a big December here all but guarantees a dud January. I'd be fine with some snow at Christmas and then a rocking heart of winter as those JMA maps are hinting at.

Can you post them at your convenience...ty! Curious to see them......

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Can you post them at your convenience...ty! Curious to see them......

I was referring to the ones Tom posted, and gave us a break-down on (above)..

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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@Tom

Nice catch amigo! Sure would be nice if what they have going on translates downstream to our region! Notice the correlation is also there wrt last winter being the complete opposite there (warm).

 

20201111 Japan Trough.PNG

20201111 Japan Ski Report.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Whoa! at Fitz anniversary storm 22 yrs ago.  971 mb in Iowa??

No wonder it was ripping shingles off rooftops in South Bend where I lived at the time.

 

 

Fitzgerald storm comparison.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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9 hours ago, Niko said:

Now, this would be ideal right before Christmas.............https://ewscripps.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/f5e6813/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1024x576+0+51/resize/1280x720!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fewscripps.brightspotcdn.com%2F95%2Fd2%2F3896c6ef4bbf8c7cc5f119fc2f3f%2Fgettyimages-459300502.jpg

 

Looks like me trying to string Christmas lights on my place up north in Dec of '95

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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9 hours ago, westMJim said:

John Dee has his winter guess out now. For the most part he is guessing a near average winter in our eastern areas and a colder snowy winter to the west and NW. We shall see. Here is a link to his website 

https://johndee.com/forecasts/forecast-graphic/

 

A normal Winter will actually look and feel colder compared to what we have been used to, except for maybe late Jan '19 during the PV intrusion and the cold wave that persisted for a couple weeks.  We need that blocking up near Greenland to suppress the jet otherwise we're going to see many NW cutters this season.  BTW, I'm curious to learn what his "proprietary" LR forecasting methods he uses.  Thanks for sharing.

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On 11/14/2020 at 12:04 PM, whatitdo said:

Moved to Kalamazoo area pretty recently from the southeast. Always been a huge snow and weather fan, and I'm sure even the worst of the winters here will exceed what I've been used to (average snowfall per season around 5-8 inches lol, I see it is around 60 inches here). I have one observation and one question

1) the occasional gales that happen in the fall are fabulous. Makes me appreciate the ferocity of the great lakes that im sure are not known to many in the country

2) what consists of a winter storm warning in SW Michigan and how often do you get them in a season? Where I was, this was 3 inches+ (in 12 hours) and 4 inches+ (in 24 hours). Winter weather advisories were 1-3 inches. I've had many bare winters. These were the only winter weather definitions I've been accustomed to and I'm sure there are far more definitions that I'm unfamiliar with (blizzards, lake effect, etc) that I want to get familiar with haha

Apologies if I've posted this in the wrong thread

Welcome. I live about 60 miles to the north of Kalamazoo.

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

A normal Winter will actually look and feel colder compared to what we have been used to, except for maybe late Jan '19 during the PV intrusion and the cold wave that persisted for a couple weeks.  We need that blocking up near Greenland to suppress the jet otherwise we're going to see many NW cutters this season.  BTW, I'm curious to learn what his "proprietary" LR forecasting methods he uses.  Thanks for sharing.

I wouldn't be, lol. Been tracking him some years now and he's no long-range/seasonal expert. You do much better, trust me. His focus and expertise is the Keewenaw region of Yooperland on behalf of snowmobilers. He does a good job with that and should just stick to his back yard tbh.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Euro Weeklies have flipped back towards a torchy early/mid December...CFSv2 weeklies agree...not looking like a fast start to official start of met Winter, except for those up north who seem to have already started their Winter season.

So we can toss the 95-96 analog that was very cold on the front end. If we do go deep into Dec without much cold/snow 98-99 will be looking better. Or we again go "dud" with the 88-89 and 11-12 analogs in play. Amazing how premature cold screws us lately. 

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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On 11/16/2020 at 11:57 AM, jaster220 said:

Whoa! at Fitz anniversary storm 22 yrs ago.  971 mb in Iowa??

No wonder it was ripping shingles off rooftops in South Bend where I lived at the time.

 

 

Fitzgerald storm comparison.PNG

You wouldn't believe it but I was out running errands and actually bought/found the 1975 cassette. No lie. My picture of the tape will not load for some reason. Crazy stuff!

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3 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

@ my post above.

Thought it was worth buying. Funny how the mind works. Pretty cool... Where weather and music meet sometimes.

20201115_115042.jpg

As with most hits (and this went to #3) there's been multiple "releases" on various albums, but the original was released as a single since it was inspired by the tragic event and most likely produced between his planned album projects. I have several versions but the original single is by far the best. I was pleasantly surprised to find that Spotify actually offered it so ofc, I had to include it on one of my regular play lists. While a common theme 100 years prior during the era of sail, I still find it amazing that a "shipwreck song" based on real life events was a chart topper in the modern era against all the pop culture of it's day. As a native Great Laker, I consider it the anthem of my home region on this vast globe.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Over the past 3-5 days, I've been paying attn towards the trends across North America and where I would expect to see more blocking to develop as we opened up December.  Interestingly, using the methodology I've been accustomed to using this season which has worked for me, take a look and compare the maps below and why I think the GEFS are on the right track.  

Notice the blossoming warm pool off the west coast that grows into central Canada...this suggests to me to look for "Blocking over the Top" and one which will probably produced a lot of storm systems to track west/east across the nation heading into December.

 

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

At 30mb and 50mb the same theme...I'd be looking for the models to begin trending towards a trough in the eastern CONUS Week 1 & 2 in December.  Just my 2 cents.  Let's see how this plays out.

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

Northern Hemisphere 50 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

With all this being said, it appears to me that while the pattern overall will remain a warm one to finish off November, as we enter December, it could end up more season to slightly BN temp wise.  Nothing to extreme but enough cold to seed storm systems the ingredients to produce snow storms.  Lastly, the flip towards a +PNA will help keep the the pattern more trough-like in the east.

5.png

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44 minutes ago, Tom said:

Over the past 3-5 days, I've been paying attn towards the trends across North America and where I would expect to see more blocking to develop as we opened up December.  Interestingly, using the methodology I've been accustomed to using this season which has worked for me, take a look and compare the maps below and why I think the GEFS are on the right track.  

Notice the blossoming warm pool off the west coast that grows into central Canada...this suggests to me to look for "Blocking over the Top" and one which will probably produced a lot of storm systems to track west/east across the nation heading into December.

 

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

At 30mb and 50mb the same theme...I'd be looking for the models to begin trending towards a trough in the eastern CONUS Week 1 & 2 in December.  Just my 2 cents.  Let's see how this plays out.

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

Northern Hemisphere 50 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

With all this being said, it appears to me that while the pattern overall will remain a warm one to finish off November, as we enter December, it could end up more season to slightly BN temp wise.  Nothing to extreme but enough cold to seed storm systems the ingredients to produce snow storms.  Lastly, the flip towards a +PNA will help keep the the pattern more trough-like in the east.

5.png

I could be wrong but wouldn't the LRC suggest a fairly big shot of Artic air  the first week of Dec ahead of the big system due in around the 9th or 10th?

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10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I could be wrong but wouldn't the LRC suggest a fairly big shot of Artic air  the first week of Dec ahead of the big system due in around the 9th or 10th?

IMO, I would no count on seeing any real arctic blasts like we saw in the 1st cycle roll through during the 1st half of Dec.  While the LRC will cycle through, unfortunately we will have unfavorable teleconnections.  There will be, however, key blocks setting up that can produce winter storms.

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

IMO, I would no count on seeing any real arctic blasts like we saw in the 1st cycle roll through during the 1st half of Dec.  While the LRC will cycle through, unfortunately we will have unfavorable teleconnections.  There will be, however, key blocks setting up that can produce winter storms.

Quote

otice the blossoming warm pool off the west coast that grows into central Canada...this suggests to me to look for "Blocking over the Top" and one which will probably produced a lot of storm systems to track west/east across the nation heading into December.

With all this being said, it appears to me that while the pattern overall will remain a warm one to finish off November, as we enter December, it could end up more season to slightly BN temp wise.  Nothing to extreme but enough cold to seed storm systems the ingredients to produce snow storms. 

Is this the Japan correlation you mentioned a day or two ago? I think the GFS has already been sniffing this out perhaps.

 

20201117 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_fh360-384.gif

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

IMO, I would not count on seeing any real arctic blasts like we saw in the 1st cycle roll through during the 1st half of Dec.  While the LRC will cycle through, unfortunately we will have unfavorable tele-connections.  There will be, however, key blocks setting up that can produce winter storms.

Great stuff. Don't really want/need arctic blasts at this point, just need the bolded.

Current snow shield to the north may take a hit with this warm ridge again, but I like the trend this autumn of the storms covering areas in W Ontario regularly. Should aid cold air to feed down here.

 

20201117 NOAA N America Snow & Ice.gif

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I forgot to mention the latest IRI-Multi Model Ensemble forecast came out with its new season run last week.  Needless to say, it continues to trend cooler for the Winter.  It def cooled more out in the Plains/MW states and our friend down in OK.

 

DJF21_NAm_tmp.gif

 

 

 

DJF21_NAm_pcp.gif

 

 

For Jan-Mar...love to see this look continue...

 

JFM21_NAm_tmp.gif

 

JFM21_NAm_pcp.gif

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11 minutes ago, Tom said:

I forgot to mention the latest IRI-Multi Model Ensemble forecast came out with its new season run last week.  Needless to say, it continues to trend cooler for the Winter.  It def cooled more out in the Plains/MW states and our friend down in OK.

 

DJF21_NAm_tmp.gif

 

 

 

DJF21_NAm_pcp.gif

 

 

For Jan-Mar...love to see this look continue...

 

JFM21_NAm_tmp.gif

 

JFM21_NAm_pcp.gif

Boy, I know when someone's thinking about me I guess. :)

If you want to know how you bury the Ozarks in snow....

This is going to be incredible. I still hold my position and that image is as close to my imagination as I could put it on paper.

Obviously no model is going to show top or bottom 30 percent of extremes when projecting out 3 months over "x" number of runs. 

I like it.

Next time the cold launches off the top, there's going to be a block and trap setup waiting on it down here. I'm 90 percent sure.

Edited by OKwx2k4
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Pardon the detour from our impending winter.

Back when winter was winter..

https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2014/03/05/north-america-snow-cover/6089667/

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Pardon the detour from our impending winter.

Back when winter was winter..

https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2014/03/05/north-america-snow-cover/6089667/

Thanks for sharing this...great photos.

Ahhhhh, the good ol' Winter of 2013-14 that just kept delivering the white stuff continuously.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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My cyclical patterning process is different than theirs and overlays with the SST patterns and some other observations, historical precedent, but I think there's potential for stuff in the very end of the month or in the crossover of December before the big stuff starts.

It's just too hard to deny based on all the weather I have seen and the historical pattern over the BSR. The follow-up cold shot is basically all but guaranteed now based on Tom's stratospheric maps post.

This winter, I'm going to try to slow down and record some of my processes again like I used to and see how they work so I can track them better and modify or note them.

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2 hours ago, Niko said:

Thanks for sharing this...great photos.

Ahhhhh, the good ol' Winter of 2013-14 that just kept delivering the white stuff continuously.

yep. The "average" depth at Battle Creek that entire month of Feb 2014 was just under 17". That kind of stuff doesn't happen very often. It's really difficult to maintain such a high number with the usual torchings and resultant melt-off.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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 I rarely post on long range- and I'am cold/snow biased- so take that into account . I will admit it.

Without posting maps (as Iam sure many look  at and what Beltrami posted in the other thread) things are not looking good (if you like winter) for the next several weeks at least-- maybe imo, through most of DEC, if not into JAN.  Systems will roll through but likely without enough cold air to produce winter precip outside of maybe the far North. IMO- the longevity of the tropical season (not totally shut down btw) with the LA nina in place is more akin to back loaded winters (if you wanna call it that- I don't- as I see winter over (starting?)  by Jan 15th or so with rapidly increasing sun angle and daylight- especially here in IA) -- I see an overall  winter - in the best like 98-99. That's a stretch at this juncture... For sure a DEC to remember for (cold and snow) is again not going to happen and WHAT you want to build on cold and snow. It may get winter like in FEB/MARCH like it has the past several years (out of many)  , but this winter is looking blah at BEST-- and FTR- I've done long range forecasting in the past for ski resorts (Lutsen Mtns in MN  in the early 2010's) .. I just don't see "real" winter this season until sometime after Jan 15th for many reading this S of 45N latitude. I hope i'am wrong of course but the trends and setups of teleconnections don't look favorable until maybe late winter. Carry on.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Good windy morning another day another wind advisory.  Looking at the models this morning beyond day 7 and they are all over the place.  The GFS is warm and dry while the EC has a big snow storm rolling through Missouri and Iowa up through Chicago.  I do see some indication some colder air will be around the first week of Dec as I believe there should be.  The question to be answered is will the artic air be close enough to tap into.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png

1606586400-kd6c49R2T1g.png

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Cold air (enough for winter precip- even enough for borderline events so that evap cooling can help at night) -- is a big question. Events will come. Low pressure may even move in prime areas for snowfall IF enough cold air is around. I'am betting that in the next month most of the posters on this forum S of 45N will not see a snow event over 4"- and even so- it will be gone in 2-3 days. If you disagree, I welcome it. Please post as why you think I'am wrong. N of 45- Central / Northern MN, ND, N.WI and the Up are likely in the bullseye - esp the far N of this region IMO. The storms are their.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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18 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Cold air (enough for winter precip- even enough for borderline events so that evap cooling can help at night) -- is a big question. Events will come. Low pressure may even move in prime areas for snowfall IF enough cold air is around. I'am betting that in the next month most of the posters on this forum S of 45N will not see a snow event over 4"- and even so- it will be gone in 2-3 days. If you disagree, I welcome it. Please post as why you think I'am wrong. N of 45- Central / Northern MN, ND, N.WI and the Up are likely in the bullseye - esp the far N of this region IMO. The storms are their.

Grizz, love reading your input and I agree with you, that we will prob have to deal with marginal events around our region as I don't see a "true" arctic source of air to tap over the next couple weeks.  That's not to say someone may get lucky and see some snow into early December.  I will say, however, with growing confidence as more data comes in, that by Dec 5th onward, the North American 500mb pattern will veer away from the trough in the west and begin to shift towards better blocking across western NAMER, but esp eastern Canada and Greenland.  It'll be a slow process but I believe it's going to happen.   IMHO, this will be a different December in terms of blocking and a more seasonal month compared to the blow torch's we have seen in recent years.  I'm really getting a good feeling about next month producing a favorable pattern for our Sub to see winter storms before the Christmas holidays.

 

Based on my research and previous posts regarding the 10/30/50mb maps I've shown before, I'm going to ride the idea we will see the west coast ridge begin to pop post Dec 5th onward.  In fact, after reviewing the latest JMA weeklies, I'm convinced it will happen even more because it is agreeing with my thoughts...LOL...

 

3.png

 

 

 

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The updated CPC outlook is now out and there is no major change to the long range guess. It is still looking for mostly near average temperatures and a chance of above average participation

 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

And that is after a good chance of a mild December.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php\

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12 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Cold air (enough for winter precip- even enough for borderline events so that evap cooling can help at night) -- is a big question. Events will come. Low pressure may even move in prime areas for snowfall IF enough cold air is around. I'am betting that in the next month most of the posters on this forum S of 45N will not see a snow event over 4"- and even so- it will be gone in 2-3 days. If you disagree, I welcome it. Please post as why you think I'am wrong. N of 45- Central / Northern MN, ND, N.WI and the Up are likely in the bullseye - esp the far N of this region IMO. The storms are theirs.

Hoping here around 42N that we can score the 07-08 treatment with 32.5F and +SN. As you mention, snow cover duration was nil but the regular action and overall storminess was awesome for the winter enthusiast. It was basically 13-14 without the bitter cold and lasting depth.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Hoping here around 42N that we can score the 07-08 treatment with 32.5F and +SN. As you mention, snow cover duration was nil but the regular action and overall storminess was awesome for the winter enthusiast. It was basically 13-14 without the bitter cold and lasting depth.

LOL, and digging into this morning's UK a bit that's exactly what it gives me Sunday evening (not sure yet on the snow rate ofc).

Temp and Windchill:

 

20201119 12z UK h84 2m Temps.png

20201119 12z UK h84 2m WC.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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On 11/14/2020 at 12:04 PM, whatitdo said:

Moved to Kalamazoo area pretty recently from the southeast. Always been a huge snow and weather fan, and I'm sure even the worst LEAST of the winters here will exceed what I've been used to (average snowfall per season around 5-8 inches lol, I see it is around 60 inches here). I have one observation and one question.

1) the occasional gales that happen in the fall are fabulous. Makes me appreciate the ferocity of the great lakes that I'm sure are not known to many in the country

2) what consists of a winter storm warning in SW Michigan and how often do you get them in a season? Where I was, this was 3 inches+ (in 12 hours) and 4 inches+ (in 24 hours). Winter weather advisories were 1-3 inches. I've had many bare winters. These were the only winter weather definitions I've been accustomed to and I'm sure there are far more definitions that I'm unfamiliar with (blizzards, lake effect, etc) that I want to get familiar with haha

Apologies if I've posted this in the wrong thread

Again, welcome whatitdo. Hope you don't mind I fixed your post above..  😜

Here are the POR Max snowfall and Max Snow Depths (monthly and seasonal) for KAZO. One caveat is that they ceased to record snowfall at the airport circa mid-1990's. I've been around since 2002 and based on knowledge and more complete data sets W and E of Kzoo I have high confidence that the Nov total was beat in 2018, the Dec total was beat in 2000, and the season total was beat in 08-09. The depth records likely still stand. Data stations west is at Bloomingdale, east is at the Veteran's Hospital NW of Battle Creek. There is also data from the MSU biologic research station at Gull Lake. The set is good for depths, not so complete for total snowfall. 

(1st column is June)

 

Kalamazoo POR Max Snowfall.PNG

Kalamazoo POR Max SN depths.PNG

20201119 SWMI Map.PNG

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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19 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Again, welcome whatitdo.

Here are the POR Max snowfall and Max Snow Depths (monthly and annually) for KAZO. One caveat is that they ceased to record snowfall at the airport circa mid-2000's. I've been around since then and believe nothing since then has likely surpassed the numbers.

 

Kalamazoo POR Max Snowfall.PNG

Kalamazoo POR Max SN depths.PNG

Good stuff, man. I found this tweet rather interesting as well: 

 

In the last 20 years, accumulating snow >1 inch here has happened after December 15th only once back in 2012. Our average date would actually be tomorrow. Seems like we're due soon eh? 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

Good stuff, man. I found this tweet rather interesting as well: 

 

In the last 20 years, accumulating snow >1 inch here has happened after December 15th only once back in 2012. Our average date would actually be tomorrow. Seems like we're due soon eh? 

 

 

Nice find. Say, I was tweaking/finishing my post not expecting you to respond so quickly. Check it out.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I've been poking around this morning and studying all the data and I'm starting to see a trend among the models that suggests a reversal in the overall pattern across North America as we flip the calendar into met Winter.  It's beginning to look like a +PNA pattern is shaping up and that will "fit" to a "T" of what is transpiring in the Strat using the LR forecasting tool I've been accustomed to use.  TBH, it's really encouraging to see the GEFS/CFSv2 both start to advertise the west coast ridge popping.  The EPS is not that far behind as it usually plays "catch up".  I will say, the LR GEFS is looking the best right now at where I believe we are heading.  IMHO, some of the models are busting big time with the blocking next month.  I do believe with strong affirmation, that there will be blocking across NE Canada which will allow a coast-to-coast parade of storm systems in December.  It'll start off slow in the cold dept, but post 5th is when I believe we will see "Winter" begin to set up.  

Below are a couple 5-day mean 500mb maps off the LR GEFS and if you compare the 30mb Strat animation and look at where the blocking sets up at 500mb.  You can't argue where this is going and I'm almost certain the EPS will trend this way as well.  The JMA weeklies from yesterday also flashed this pattern to set up by mid Dec.  To see various models all beginning to look similar, it bodes confidence that this December will be a lot different than years past.  Remember the saying we had back in Sept??  #FlipTheScript

 

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

1.png

2.png

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

I've been poking around this morning and studying all the data and I'm starting to see a trend among the models that suggests a reversal in the overall pattern across North America as we flip the calendar into met Winter.  It's beginning to look like a +PNA pattern is shaping up and that will "fit" to a "T" of what is transpiring in the Strat using the LR forecasting tool I've been accustomed to use.  TBH, it's really encouraging to see the GEFS/CFSv2 both start to advertise the west coast ridge popping.  The EPS is not that far behind as it usually plays "catch up".  I will say, the LR GEFS is looking the best right now at where I believe we are heading.  IMHO, some of the models are busting big time with the blocking next month.  I do believe with strong affirmation, that there will be blocking across NE Canada which will allow a coast-to-coast parade of storm systems in December.  It'll start off slow in the cold dept, but post 5th is when I believe we will see "Winter" begin to set up.  

Below are a couple 5-day mean 500mb maps off the LR GEFS and if you compare the 30mb Strat animation and look at where the blocking sets up at 500mb.  You can't argue where this is going and I'm almost certain the EPS will trend this way as well.  The JMA weeklies from yesterday also flashed this pattern to set up by mid Dec.  To see various models all beginning to look similar, it bodes confidence that this December will be a lot different than years past.  Remember the saying we had back in Sept??  #FlipTheScript

 

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

1.png

2.png

 

 

Thanks Tom, I agree with your thoughts as it lines up well with the LRC.  I know not everything always lines up exactly the same, but the part of the pattern we had from Oct 19th through the end of the month was strong and should repeat through the Winter.  I wanna respect everyone's opinion but the time between the 4th and 15th I believe should get cold and have some artic air very close at least.

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Thanks Tom, I agree with your thoughts as it lines up well with the LRC.  I know not everything always lines up exactly the same, but the part of the pattern we had from Oct 19th through the end of the month was strong and should repeat through the Winter.  I wanna respect everyone's opinion but the time between the 4th and 15th I believe should get cold and have some artic air very close at least.

Your onto something during this period....esp if we get the west coast block, lock over the top into Greenland by the 10th or so you can really start to pool some arctic air south.  Using the LRC, it should be a fun storm tracking period next month before the holidays.  I just hope we don't see friggin' lockdowns!

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Just now, Tom said:

Your onto something during this period....esp if we get the west coast block, lock over the top into Greenland by the 10th or so you can really start to pool some arctic air south.  Using the LRC, it should be a fun storm tracking period next month before the holidays.  I just hope we don't see friggin' lockdowns!

Lock downs are no good.  I agree Dec should start and finish good with a little lull in the middle.  Christmas Day storm???  I have it on my calendar give or take a day.

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