Tom Posted July 27, 2020 Report Share Posted July 27, 2020 As we wind down what has been a very hot and steamy July, where nearly all of us fried, what shall we expect for the last month of met Summer??? I know I may speak on behalf of many of you on this board, but I think we need a break from the oppressive heat and humidity for a while. Well, low and hold, there is strong indication that the wx pattern overall for our Sub will indeed change in a dramatic way. In fact, it already has begun for our central members and will extend east throughout the rest of this week. Let's dive in.... Last night's 00z GEFS and EPS have a large pocket of cool to rule the central ag belt to open up the first full week of August... The interesting wx system that will contribute to this cool down next week is a very rare late summer storm system. Actually, come to think of it, over the past couple summers we have seen these rare storms deliver appreciable precip. This particular storm has that CO Low track that dips south and cuts up towards the lower lakes! Pretty cool to see. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted July 27, 2020 Report Share Posted July 27, 2020 As we wind down what has been a very hot and steamy July, where nearly all of us fried, what shall we expect for the last month of met Summer??? I know I may speak on behalf of many of you on this board, but I think we need a break from the oppressive heat and humidity for a while. Well, low and hold, there is strong indication that the wx pattern overall for our Sub will indeed change in a dramatic way. In fact, it already has begun for our central members and will extend east throughout the rest of this week. Let's dive in.... Last night's 00z GEFS and EPS have a large pocket of cool to rule the central ag belt to open up the first full week of August... The interesting wx system that will contribute to this cool down next week is a very rare late summer storm system. Actually, come to think of it, over the past couple summers we have seen these rare storms deliver appreciable precip. This particular storm has that CO Low track that dips south and cuts up towards the lower lakes! Pretty cool to see.What a way to close out July and open Aug. Mid 80s. That's a difference from many seasons. Be the first time its actually showed up for me and closed down the hottest part. Lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted July 27, 2020 Report Share Posted July 27, 2020 As we wind down what has been a very hot and steamy July, where nearly all of us fried, what shall we expect for the last month of met Summer??? I know I may speak on behalf of many of you on this board, but I think we need a break from the oppressive heat and humidity for a while. Well, low and hold, there is strong indication that the wx pattern overall for our Sub will indeed change in a dramatic way. In fact, it already has begun for our central members and will extend east throughout the rest of this week. Let's dive in.... Last night's 00z GEFS and EPS have a large pocket of cool to rule the central ag belt to open up the first full week of August... The interesting wx system that will contribute to this cool down next week is a very rare late summer storm system. Actually, come to think of it, over the past couple summers we have seen these rare storms deliver appreciable precip. This particular storm has that CO Low track that dips south and cuts up towards the lower lakes! Pretty cool to see.That is a really cool map. Hope this verifies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted July 27, 2020 Report Share Posted July 27, 2020 I'm seeing low 80s and sunny as we go into August. It could be much worse, I'll take that in a heartbeat. 4 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 28, 2020 Boy, last night's 00z Euro has daytime highs in the low/mid 70's for a few days next week across the eastern MW into the GL's region. What a way to open up a new month, ay??? This is going to feel like bonafide early Autumn with DP's in the 40's! Models continue to extend the cooler trend into Week 2 of August. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 28, 2020 Report Share Posted July 28, 2020 Boy, last night's 00z Euro has daytime highs in the low/mid 70's for a few days next week across the eastern MW into the GL's region. What a way to open up a new month, ay??? This is going to feel like bonafide early Autumn with DP's in the 40's! Models continue to extend the cooler trend into Week 2 of August.Is it far enough west to get me in? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 28, 2020 Is it far enough west to get me in?Yes, pretty much from IA and points east... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 28, 2020 Report Share Posted July 28, 2020 Yes, pretty much from IA and points east...Man I'd take that in a heartbeat. Mets have low 80s next week but hopefully the Euro wins out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted July 28, 2020 Report Share Posted July 28, 2020 The extended certainly looks very nice. I just wish it came with some good rain. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 28, 2020 Report Share Posted July 28, 2020 Holy crap! We are almost in August already. Geez! Talk about; "Time that goes by fast." Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 28, 2020 Report Share Posted July 28, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 28, 2020 Report Share Posted July 28, 2020 Yup which is the month I really start to get excited about fall and winter Haha Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 29, 2020 Boy, not only are the models trending cooler in the near term, but also in the long term as we head into Week 2 of August. Who wants a taste of some "Northwoods Air"??? From Sun-Wed, many of us will be enjoying crisp, cool, late summer weather and most definitely I could see people sparking up backyard bon fires! Ahhh, I love the smell of burning wood and grilling sausage over a fire. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 29, 2020 Changes are brewing for this month and they may have some legs. An extended period of much cooler weather is heading for the central/southern plains. The latest CFSv2 is quite cool/wet for the ag belt and a lot of our members. Sign me up! Big time flip in our wx pattern coming up if the models are right... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 29, 2020 Report Share Posted July 29, 2020 Sign me up. Maybe we will have a cooler August to make up for the hot July. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 29, 2020 12z ICON with some rather chilly temps on Tuesday for MI and places near the lakes... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 29, 2020 Report Share Posted July 29, 2020 12z ICON with some rather chilly temps on Tuesday for MI and places near the lakes... Mid afternoon on Aug 4th with mid 70s over this way? I can already smell the bonfire I'm gonna have. BRING IT ON 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 29, 2020 Report Share Posted July 29, 2020 FL needs to keep their guards on for the potential of a strong "Tropical System" affecting the state this upcoming weekend. Most of Fl will get impacted w Isaiah. Maybe a Hurricane. Afterwards, the EC needs to watch this. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 30, 2020 While combing through a lot of data this morning, I'm tickled with excitement at how this pattern is evolving for this coming month. August 2017 really sticks out to me when comparing what the models are showing in terms of temps/precip across the nation. Take a look at what happened back then and compare it to the next 28 days off the JMA/CFSv2/Euro Weeklies. August '17 Temp departure... August '17 Precip departure...clearly, there is a common denominator whereby you have a very wet southern half of the U.S. and Upper MW. The JMA weeklies look almost like a carbon copy but a bit drier up north. Temps... Precip... Could you get a closer comparing the CFSv2 weeklies with 2017??? Crazy similarities. Euro weeklies show a similar tune but warmer and drier as usual. This summer it has been way off in the LR anyway but it slowly corrects as time gets closer. So what does this all mean??? Get ready to finish summer off with comfortable weather and I'm sure there will be delighted farmers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted July 30, 2020 Report Share Posted July 30, 2020 Highs now have been lowered to the mid to upper 70s for the first week of August. That's about as nice as it gets for basically still the heart of summer. I can already tell it's going to be another steaming hot September now lol. 5 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted July 30, 2020 Report Share Posted July 30, 2020 If i get anything but average weather after this week, the euro will be spot on. "Shortest" summer in 14 years. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 30, 2020 Report Share Posted July 30, 2020 My extended has 75 for a high Monday and a low of 53 Monday night! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted July 30, 2020 Report Share Posted July 30, 2020 Changes are brewing for this month and they may have some legs. An extended period of much cooler weather is heading for the central/southern plains. The latest CFSv2 is quite cool/wet for the ag belt and a lot of our members. Sign me up! Big time flip in our wx pattern coming up if the models are right... that pattern could be a problem on the eastern seaboard as we get into the meat of the hurricane season with the maine trough in the mid west ohio vally could spell some east coast hurricane threats. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted July 30, 2020 Report Share Posted July 30, 2020 that pattern could be a problem on the eastern seaboard as we get into the meat of the hurricane season with the maine trough in the mid west ohio vally could spell some east coast hurricane threats.Already looks like there may be a coast hugger next week. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 Already looks like there may be a coast hugger next week.Been seeing and thinking the same as you guys. Looks like a rough late hurricane season incoming on the EC and even NE US. Been a few years for those folks up there. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 Already looks like there may be a coast hugger next week. certernly right about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 Forecast low of 52 for Monday night and 51 Tuesday night! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 All eyes on Isaiah as it will give FL a beating and then track up the EC. The Bermuda High will help stir it near the coast. Heads up next week. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 It was another very wet day yesterday across the S MW....is there a repeat system for next weekend??? Based on the 00z EPS, it looks like another soaker is in the works late next week. There is also an upper level wave that tracks out of the N Rockies and into the central Plains mid next week that may spark some active wx to provide some moisture. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted August 1, 2020 Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 Preliminary July 2020 wrap. July 2020 will go into the history books as one of the warmest Julys in recorded history. Here at Grand Rapids it was the 7th warmest July tied with 1919 with a mean of 75.7° The high for the month was 94 on the 3rd and 7th There were 10 days where the temperature was 90 or better. The low for the month was 58 on the 14th. The official rain fall for the month was 4.75” At Muskegon July 2020 was the 2nd warmest in recorded history with a mean of 76.0 The high for the month there was 92 on the 2nd and 4th and the low was 55 on the 14th They recorded 2.28” of rain fall. Down at Kalamazoo with a July mean of 76.7 came in with a 4 way tie for the 7th warmest July tied with 2011, 1977 and 1931. And to our east at Lansing it was the 7th warmest on record with a mean of 75.8. And at Lansing records have been kept since 1863. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 1, 2020 Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 The days are getting shorter faster. Today, the sun sets at 8:59. On Monday August 10, it sets at 8:45. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 1, 2020 Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 Perfect setup and track had it been Winter for a shutdown snowstorm here in SEMI. I hope this is the beginning. Anyways, back to reality. A storm coming from the south will pound the area w hvy rain. If it tracks a little more west, I get more rainfall. So far, 1-2" is forecasted. Lots of flooding expected. Looks like the "Drought Monitor" will erase the "Moderately Dry" color by next week when they update the state. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 1, 2020 Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 Attm, clouds are increasing ahead of a major storm system coming from the south. Temp is at 76F w muggy conditions. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 1, 2020 Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 Flash Flood Watch Flood Watch National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 351 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 MIZ048-049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-012030- /O.NEW.KDTX.FF.A.0004.200802T0000Z-200802T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer- St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- Including the cities of Bay City, Bad Axe, Saginaw, Caro, Sandusky, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe 351 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for a portion of southeast Michigan, including the following areas, Bay, Genesee, Huron, Lapeer, Lenawee, Livingston, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, Saginaw, Sanilac, Shiawassee, St. Clair, Tuscola, Washtenaw, and Wayne. * From this evening through Sunday afternoon * Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread tonight and persist through Sunday morning. Rainfall rates in excess of an inch an hour are possible with some of these showers and thunderstorms. * Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected over much of the area. Locally higher rainfall totals are likely. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 1, 2020 Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 Lets not forget about Hurricane Isaiah. EC residents need to monitor this storm. Here is a live stream from Port Nassau Bahamas........ https://www.portnassauwebcam.com/ Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 1, 2020 Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 The days are getting shorter faster. Today, the sun sets at 8:59. On Monday August 10, it sets at 8:45.I’m going to ask you how much more noticeable the sun angle is during late Dec and into Jan compared to when you were living in NE. Your one of the farthest north members and since you’ve lived in both locals, curious to hear your feedback. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 1, 2020 Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 I’m going to ask you how much more noticeable the sun angle is during late Dec and into Jan compared to when you were living in NE. Your one of the farthest north members and since you’ve lived in both locals, curious to hear your feedback.I do know from pics that it has gotten into the mid-20s here in full sun during early January without any melting on side streets. I'm eager to see for myself. Beltrami Island is the northernmost member we have, afaik. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 1, 2020 Report Share Posted August 1, 2020 Cloudy skies w light showers starting to move in. Temp is at 71F. It will be a rainy weekend. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted August 2, 2020 Report Share Posted August 2, 2020 Hello from the Black hills of South Dakota! Never been here before and up here with the in-laws; what a geologic wonder! Took a train today from Hill City to Keystone and the outcrop of limestone and granite is crazy. Also had a cave tour around Mount Rushmore and seeing the limestone melt was amazing. Here until Tuesday and looking at highs in the 70’s and low in the 40’s. The place we are staying in has no central air conditioning!! Windows open and smelling that cool air is icing on the cake! 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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