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August 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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88 degrees feels like 98 with 70 dew. Gross. Make it stop. We’ve had enough this summer.

 

Meanwhile in Scottsbluff: 103 but with a dew point of 24 and a whopping 6% humidity. The panhandle is really a different world  :blink:

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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I was hoping to get some rain Saturday morning, like the Euro has been teasing all week, but it appears unlikely.  There are a few more rain chances through mid next week, but nothing real promising.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Meanwhile in Scottsbluff: 103 but with a dew point of 24 and a whopping 6% humidity. The panhandle is really a different world :blink:

We have a new football coach at our school. He coached at Scottsbluff the last 4 years. He can’t believe our humidity here. I told him we have about 3 1/2 weeks until irrigation ends and the corn transpiration is done. Typically our dews drop dramatically by the first week of September.

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All week the Euro was showing a line of storms pushing southeast through the upper midwest overnight tonight into Saturday morning, but that forecast was crap.  Once again, many locations will be lucky to get anything over the weekend.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Rise N' Shine from Durango, CO!  It's a cool 53F and a very low DP (36F).  I don't have much time to post on here this morning but I just wanted to drop in and say hello.  Yesterday, we had amazing weather conditions all throughout our journey from Aron, to Aspen/Snowmass, through Independence Pass (I'll post some photos later) and finally into Durango.  All this driving and lack of good sleep is catching up!  Can't wait to sleep in my own bed back in AZ.  

 

Speaking of AZ, my goodness, it's going to take a bit to acclimate to the intense heat.  Nothing but HOT weather in the foreseeable future.

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Hurricane forecast goes up after the tropical flurry and "poof"....no hurricanes.

 

Going to see variable weather over the Ozarks to get us to last week of the month. Recovering or rebounding the extremely sharp cold start to August 2020 is going to be hard to do without a week of 95s. Not happening.

 

Beautiful August continues while Tom out there is hanging out in the high heat side of the summer.

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Hurricane forecast goes up after the tropical flurry and "poof"....no hurricanes.

 

The Atlantic has moved into a less favorable phase for cyclone activity.  However, as several experts have been tweeting, models are suggesting that the MJO, et al, will be coming together to produce a favorable phase for the Atlantic from late August into September, perfectly timed for peak season.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Attm, its gorgeous outside w a temp of 79F and dew at 57F.

 

Working on a big project on my backyard property this weekend. I have workers putting a " A Villa Roman Spa Furniture" around my pool area  and also adding a huge "Spiral Slide" as well. Hopefully, will be done next week. :blink:

 

In the meantime, it gets more humid and warmer. I think we stay away from the 90s, but upper 80s to maybe 90F is a good call. Temps drop to the mid 80s or lower by midweek and later on.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

404 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

 

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-090900-

Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-

St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-

404 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

 

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast

Michigan.

 

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 

There is a chance of thunderstorms late tonight mainly across the

Saginaw Valley and Thumb. These storms are not expected to be

severe while tracking eastward around 20 mph.

 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

 

Chances of thunderstorms continue Sunday through Tuesday. The best

chance of storms is Monday into Monday night as a cold front moves

through the region. Storms are not projected to become severe late

this weekend, but will carry some potential on Monday should greater

instability materialize during the afternoon and evening hours.

 

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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My gosh. WeatherUnderground app showing a temp of 91 with a heat index of 104 and a 77 dew. Hello South Florida in Central Nebraska. I can’t begin to describe my hatred of this type of weather. Sweating standing still.

My weather station has 89 air temp, 78 dew for a heat index of 102. It was showing 106 earlier. Been smoking a pork butt on my new pit boss smoker since 830 and every time I step outside I break out in a sweat. Humid humid...

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The Atlantic has moved into a less favorable phase for cyclone activity. However, as several experts have been tweeting, models are suggesting that the MJO, et al, will be coming together to produce a favorable phase for the Atlantic from late August into September, perfectly timed for peak season.

Thank you for the added info on that. I was half wondering if the flurry of activity wasn't a harbinger. If this is the case, should be an interesting fall.

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My weather station has 89 air temp, 78 dew for a heat index of 102. It was showing 106 earlier. Been smoking a pork butt on my new pit boss smoker since 830 and every time I step outside I break out in a sweat. Humid humid...

Yep. Put some burgers and chicken on the Green Mountain Pellet Grill. Faces the sun. It was unpleasant. Still 87/97 with a 74 dew. Only 3 weeks till September.

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Good morning from the "Valley of the Sun" where it is a very warm 83F.  I must say, it feels nice to have slept on my own bed but the 2 hour time difference had me waking up around 3:00am!  Needless to say, I feel much better after driving over 1,900 miles the past 3 days.  While I do enjoy road trips, I think I'm going to take it easy for a while. 

 

When I was driving through our country this past month, I was struck by how much diversity it has and how much land there is. You really don't get the real picture sitting at home or watching it on TV.  I encourage everyone to take a road trip whenever possible to see our beautiful land of the USA.  We are truly blessed to have such an enormous amount of land and places to see.  I pretty much drove through all the different regions of our Sub Forum, except for our members up north which is my goal by the end of this year.  Now I have a sense of what it is like living in your regions during the Summer.  I intend on taking a road trip this Fall or Winter (TBD) up north.

 

At this time, it is 5:28am and daylight has emerged...sun rise is at 5:46am.

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Today will be the first day of above average mean temperatures after 10 days in a row of below average. The official overnight low at GRR was 69 and here at my house it was 70. At this time it is 75 here at my house with a DP of 68. The 8 am reading at GRR was 75 with a DP of 67.

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If you haven't heard, yesterday PHX tied the all-time record of 33 days of 110F+ temps and we will shatter that record this week with multiple days in the 110's.  Just an incredible stretch of HOT weather over here and the lack of the Monsoon is no bueno.

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Attm, its 76F w a noticeable dew. Skies are partly sunny. Severe storms possible tomorrow as a CF approaches.

 

Rest of the week looks mainly 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Wow, looks like quite a bit of damage in the Fremont area... I received a notification for the Severe Thunderstorm Warning on my phone for Douglas County for possible 75 MPH winds, however that storm collapsed as it moved east so I am wondering if the severe winds in Fremont were caused by a wet microburst?

 

Picked up .20 of rain from the showers and storms that moved through my backyard this morning. For another 20% chance of rain, I will take it... even though we need a lot more.

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Let's see if this actually means s**t this time. Friday was the biggest failure of a watch I've ever seen.
 

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 423
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1215 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
 
   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
 
   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Northwest Minnesota
     Eastern North Dakota
 
   * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until
     700 PM CDT.
 
   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     A tornado or two possible
 
   SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms have initially formed
   across northeast North Dakota, with additional storms expected to
   develop through the afternoon farther south into southeast North
   Dakota. This activity will spread east with embedded supercells and
   line segments into northwest Minnesota through early evening.
 
   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
   statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north of Thief
   River Falls MN to 70 miles south southwest of Fargo ND. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
 
   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 
   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.


From the convective outlook:

 

   The second corridor will be focused along a progressive cold front

   that should have increasing storm coverage by mid-afternoon across
   eastern ND as mid-level cooling further occurs in association with a
   Prairie Provinces shortwave trough. With a belt of fast 500-mb
   westerlies slowly shifting south through the day, the setup will be
   favorable for initial supercells that should grow into fast-moving
   linear segments by early evening. CAM guidance varies widely with
   the evolution of convection across MN this evening. The leading MCV
   will likely hinder destabilization across north-central and
   northeast MN suggesting that severe potential from the cold front
   convection will be confined to northwest MN. Other guidance suggests
   more of a southeastward-propagation towards larger buoyancy
   developing on the backside of the leading MCV as low-level moisture
   recovery occurs. This lower confidence scenario might result in a
   long-lived MCS persisting through much of tonight down the Upper MS
   Valley, as advertised by the 12Z NSSL-ARW and 00Z ECMWF. Given the
   uncertainty, no change is warranted to the broad cat 2/SLGT risk
   from the prior outlook.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Once again, it looks like Cedar Rapids is getting screwed. We got missed this morning with all of the thunderstorms going north of here. The same thing seems to be happening now with more storms to the north. 

 

It hasn't rained here since July 21, this is getting ridiculous. Illinois is the only state now in the midwest that is not under some sort of drought. 

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Wow, looks like quite a bit of damage in the Fremont area... I received a notification for the Severe Thunderstorm Warning on my phone for Douglas County for possible 75 MPH winds, however that storm collapsed as it moved east so I am wondering if the severe winds in Fremont were caused by a wet microburst?

 

Picked up .20 of rain from the showers and storms that moved through my backyard this morning. For another 20% chance of rain, I will take it... even though we need a lot more.

it was wet microburst for sure.
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Didn't take long.

 

 

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
214 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

The National Weather Service in Grand Forks has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southwestern Cass County in southeastern North Dakota...
East central Barnes County in southeastern North Dakota...

* Until 300 PM CDT.

* At 214 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Oriska, or 8 miles southeast of Valley City,
moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported funnel cloud.

IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles.

* Locations impacted include...
Tower City, Buffalo, Oriska and Alice.

This includes Interstate 94 in North Dakota between mile markers 300
and 316.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Once again, it looks like Cedar Rapids is getting screwed. We got missed this morning with all of the thunderstorms going north of here. The same thing seems to be happening now with more storms to the north. 

 

It hasn't rained here since July 21, this is getting ridiculous. Illinois is the only state now in the midwest that is not under some sort of drought. 

 

It's unreal how difficult it is to get good rain once drought conditions begin to build.  It feeds on itself.  The weak disturbance passing through Iowa has moved by CR with nothing, so that will probably be it.  If we don't get anything Monday, it may be another week before our next chance.  This has been the most boring summer since 2012.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Hazy skies w temps at 86F and very muggy conditions, if not "Oppressive." No storms today and not looking like any tomorrow as the CF will end up drying up as it moves eastward. Unless, someone gets lucky enough to get a storm.

 

Drought Monitor reads "Moderately Dry" for my region. :wacko:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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New tornado warning for our user in Baudette.

That was a scary 15 minutes. As the Tornado warning was issued the shelf cloud approaching me from the west looked like it meant business. I didn't even dare take the time snap a quick picture before rushing down to the basement. Aside from the city tornado siren going it was earily calm and quite before the rain and wind arrived.

I haven't heard if a tornado actually touched down or not, but I think a funnel cloud report prompted the warning according to the news warning.

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That was a scary 15 minutes. As the Tornado warning was issued the shelf cloud approaching me from the west looked like it meant business. I didn't even dare take the time snap a quick picture before rushing down to the basement. Aside from the city tornado siren going it was earily calm and quite before the rain and wind arrived.

I haven't heard if a tornado actually touched down or not, but I think a funnel cloud report prompted the warning according to the news warning.

Numerous funnels and a confirmed tornado near my area. I just got 5 minutes of heavy rain.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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