Minny_Weather Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 Very pleasant morning. 54°F, wind chill (!) 52°F. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 Well lets see if the severe storms in South Dakota can make it into se. Iowa today. The atmosphere still is strongly capped so we'll have to wait and see, as that's what prevented storms across my area yesterday. NWS DVN is thinking chances are better today. Hopefully I'm not in the middle of a bowing line where winds would be higher but rainfall lower as it rapidly blows through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 Once again, it looks like Cedar Rapids is getting screwed. We got missed this morning with all of the thunderstorms going north of here. The same thing seems to be happening now with more storms to the north. It hasn't rained here since July 21, this is getting ridiculous. Illinois is the only state now in the midwest that is not under some sort of drought. You're not nearly as screwed as I was for weeks on end already with mainly limited light rains here the past 2 or so months! A year ago rains had returned by this time after that drought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 I scored 0.63" yesterday. First rain in a few weeks I believe.Another morning in the low 70s and high dews. Gettin old 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 Back home, the models are suggesting a nasty bowed line to track through S WI/N IL later this afternoon. Hopefully the severe threat isn't as bad as it looks bc I left my tomatoes on my deck and don't want them blown over! That storm cluster in SE MN could mean business...here's the latest Meso Discussion... DISCUSSION...Cluster of thunderstorms that has persisted most of thenight over southeast MN has recently shown signs of betterorganization and quicker forward motion. Recent KARX radar imagerysuggests much of this activity currently remains behind the stormoutflow. However, storm development has occurred along the outflowacross the southern flank of the cluster, suggesting the potentialthat the cluster may begin to become rooted closer to the surface.If that occurs, the potential for damaging wind gusts will increase.Confidence in that scenario is low, but trends will be monitoredclosely. Additionally, regardless of whether or not the damagingwind threat increases, the potential for large hail will persist.The downstream environment is strongly buoyant, with recentmesoanalysis and RAP soundings depicting steep mid-level lapse ratesand MUCAPE approaching 3000 J/kg. Convective outlook probabilitieswill be increased downstream of this system with the upcoming 13ZConvective Outlook and trends are being monitored closely forpotential watch issuance. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 The NE./SD. storms are plenty far south already. I could see them passing well to my southwest if they don't dissipate, but DVN tweeted that they could make it into the area (probably western part of the CWA) early this afternoon if they hold together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 I'm getting the cloud cover out ahead of that MCS coming out of South Dakota. Hoping to get some storms. At least the clouds will help it from getting too hot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 That line of storms in N NE could be a threat for those near OMA...they have a tendency to sag south in this particular set up... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 The EPS has been trending wetter and cooler for those of you across the MW/GL's region heading late into this weekend into next week. The model is seeing an amplified 500mb pattern and quite a wet and rare "summer time cutter" for next weekend...again??? The maps below clearly show a nation divided....no pun intended... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 Had continuous lightning and thunder from 8pm until about 2:30am last night. I have never seen anything like that. I have an inquiry into MPX to see if they have a record of how many lightning flashes took place. Definitely in the thousands for sure, if not way more. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 Eastern Iowa and Illinois have been upgraded to enhanced risk now.https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 The EPS has been trending wetter and cooler for those of you across the MW/GL's region heading late into this weekend into next week. The model is seeing an amplified 500mb pattern and quite a wet and rare "summer time cutter" for next weekend...again??? The maps below clearly show a nation divided....no pun intended...Nice maps. Thanks. But I have to see it to believe after seeing promising maps all summer! It often starts raining in August after a lengthy dry spell, but not always of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 It was a warm night last night both the official low at GRR and here at my house was 72. The official high at GRR yesterday was 89. While it did cloud up overnight and for much of the night temperatures were in the mid to upper 70’s there was no rain here at my house. At this time it is clear with a temperature of 75 and a DP of 68 here at my house.There now only 21 days left in meteorological summer. The last time it officially reached 90 or better here at GR was on July 26th so it has not been that long ago. So far this year there have been 14 days of 90 or better. 58 days of 80 or better. There has been 83 days of 70 or better. On the flip side there have been 90 nights of 32 or below so far this year. And 108 nights of lows of 40 or below. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 Just got hit with a wicked severe warned gust front in Omaha... winds had to be pushing 60-70 MPH when the gust front hit. Parts of the roof at my work peeled up, power is out, and lots of tree damage in across parts of the metro it sounds like. Looks like there will hardly be any rain or thunder with this at all, which is all too much of a coincidence... best severe storm of the year and won’t see much, if any rain - keep doing your thing 2020! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 Just got hit with a wicked severe warned gust front in Omaha... winds had to be pushing 60-70 MPH when the gust front hit.Parts of the roof at my work peeled up, power is out, and lots of tree damage in across parts of the metro it sounds like. Looks like there will hardly be any rain or thunder with this at all, which is all too much of a coincidence... best severe storm of the year and won’t see much, if any rain - keep doing your thing 2020!Same in Lincoln. Some crazy wind rn, but hardly any rain. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 Severe TStorm Watch for a large chunk of Iowa. Lots of Severe T Storm warnings as well. I was worried it might not make it here, but it seems the bigger concern now is it may very well miss to the south. We could certainly use some rain. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 Severe TStorm Watch for a large chunk of Iowa. Lots of Severe T Storm warnings as well. I was worried it might not make it here, but it seems the bigger concern now is it may very well miss to the south. We could certainly use some rain.Complex is holding together pretty well. Maybe we'll finally get something widespread. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 Complex is holding together pretty well. Maybe we'll finally get something widespread. Yeah, it is looking pretty good. It's got a long ways to go to get to eastern Iowa, so who knows what it will look like by then. A quick half inch though would be nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 The heat is certainly building in eastern Iowa... full sun here. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 I’m starting to get excited about it now since it isn’t diving south as much as I feared at first. And it’s still strong in nearly the most stable time of the day, but it looks like Omaha got shafted if I was looking correctly. At least they got a cool outflow from it. Should strengthen in the afternoon too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 Yeah, it is looking pretty good. It's got a long ways to go to get to eastern Iowa, so who knows what it will look like by then. A quick half inch though would be nice. I’ld be tickled with 3” or 4”, or even 1”. Haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 Real quick....so, Temp here is 83F and dew is on the muggy side. Hopefully some storms lata today! Um, also, CF rolls on thru tomorrow, but mostly dry. Hopefully, today my area gets some hvy rainfall. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 This looks refreshing...... Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 DSM is about to get rocked...I just had a vision of how the skies must look around town as it was only a few days ago I drove through that part of IA. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 I just counted 17 Iowa counties currently under severe thunderstorm warnings. Wow 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 It’s really moving and bowing out now. Doesn’t look quite as intense as far as heavy rainfall. Hoping I can be where the comma head produces the heaviest rain, but..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 Closing in on me! Storms to my north and wrapping around to my west. Wind is picking up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 CR probably in a better spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 Check out this! https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 80mph wind gust in some of the warnings! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 Radar velocity showing 90 mph around Newton! Wow get ready Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 The SPC actually put "100 mph gusts likely" in the watch description. I want a good storm with heavy rain, but I don't want my garden thrashed. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 Nice line firing along highway 20 now. I'm literally surrounded by storms. Getting dark and should be hitting soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 Holy smokes, this is going to be scary.... A particularly dangerous situation has developed with severe storms moving in to northern IL / IN between 1 & 7 PM CDT; strong wind gusts up to 100 MPH are possible. Please prepare accordingly by securing outside items like lawn furniture or trashcans! #ilwx #inwxQuote Tweet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 Wow. This got real. Really fast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 To those of you around CR and E IA who were hoping for a good storm, well, nature is about to deliver but maybe a wee bit to much! This bow echo is in a beeline towards Hawkeye. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 Give me 2” of rain and keep the winds under 70mph. *fingers crossed* 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 Lot of lightning and thunder. Just starting to rain. Looks wicked to my south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 10, 2020 Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 These lightning flashes are close! Be careful if you are in the path! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2020 These lightning flashes are close! Be careful if you are in the path!Stay safe to everyone in the path of this line...I'm sure many of them are already hunker downed... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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