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August 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Well lets see if the severe storms in South Dakota can make it into se. Iowa today. The atmosphere still is strongly capped so we'll have to wait and see, as that's what prevented storms across my area yesterday. NWS DVN is thinking chances are better today. Hopefully I'm not in the middle of a bowing line where winds would be higher but rainfall lower as it rapidly blows through.

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Once again, it looks like Cedar Rapids is getting screwed. We got missed this morning with all of the thunderstorms going north of here. The same thing seems to be happening now with more storms to the north.

 

It hasn't rained here since July 21, this is getting ridiculous. Illinois is the only state now in the midwest that is not under some sort of drought.

 

You're not nearly as screwed as I was for weeks on end already with mainly limited light rains here the past 2 or so months! A year ago rains had returned by this time after that drought.
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Back home, the models are suggesting a nasty bowed line to track through S WI/N IL later this afternoon.  Hopefully the severe threat isn't as bad as it looks bc I left my tomatoes on my deck and don't want them blown over!

 

 

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_10.png

 

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_14.png

 

 

 

That storm cluster in SE MN could mean business...here's the latest Meso Discussion...

 

mcd1446.gif

 

 

 

 

 

DISCUSSION...Cluster of thunderstorms that has persisted most of the
night over southeast MN has recently shown signs of better
organization and quicker forward motion. Recent KARX radar imagery
suggests much of this activity currently remains behind the storm
outflow. However, storm development has occurred along the outflow
across the southern flank of the cluster, suggesting the potential
that the cluster may begin to become rooted closer to the surface.
If that occurs, the potential for damaging wind gusts will increase.
Confidence in that scenario is low, but trends will be monitored
closely. Additionally, regardless of whether or not the damaging
wind threat increases, the potential for large hail will persist.
The downstream environment is strongly buoyant, with recent
mesoanalysis and RAP soundings depicting steep mid-level lapse rates
and MUCAPE approaching 3000 J/kg. Convective outlook probabilities
will be increased downstream of this system with the upcoming 13Z
Convective Outlook and trends are being monitored closely for
potential watch issuance.
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The NE./SD. storms are plenty far south already. I could see them passing well to my southwest if they don't dissipate, but DVN tweeted that they could make it into the area (probably western part of the CWA) early this afternoon if they hold together.

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The EPS has been trending wetter and cooler for those of you across the MW/GL's region heading late into this weekend into next week.  The model is seeing an amplified 500mb pattern and quite a wet and rare "summer time cutter" for next weekend...again???

 

The maps below clearly show a nation divided....no pun intended...

 

 

 

 

 

1.png

2.png

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The EPS has been trending wetter and cooler for those of you across the MW/GL's region heading late into this weekend into next week. The model is seeing an amplified 500mb pattern and quite a wet and rare "summer time cutter" for next weekend...again???

 

The maps below clearly show a nation divided....no pun intended...

Nice maps. Thanks. But I have to see it to believe after seeing promising maps all summer! It often starts raining in August after a lengthy dry spell, but not always of course.
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It was a warm night last night both the official low at GRR and here at my house was 72.  The official high at GRR yesterday was 89. While it did cloud up overnight and for much of the night temperatures were in the mid to upper 70’s there was no rain here at my house. At this time it is clear with a temperature of 75 and a DP of 68 here at my house.

There now only 21 days left in meteorological summer.  The last time it officially reached 90 or better here at GR was on July 26th so it has not been that long ago. So far this year there have been 14 days of 90 or better. 58 days of 80 or better. There has been 83 days of 70 or better. On the flip side there have been 90 nights of 32 or below so far this year. And 108 nights of lows of 40 or below.

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Just got hit with a wicked severe warned gust front in Omaha... winds had to be pushing 60-70 MPH when the gust front hit.

 

Parts of the roof at my work peeled up, power is out, and lots of tree damage in across parts of the metro it sounds like. Looks like there will hardly be any rain or thunder with this at all, which is all too much of a coincidence... best severe storm of the year and won’t see much, if any rain - keep doing your thing 2020!

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Just got hit with a wicked severe warned gust front in Omaha... winds had to be pushing 60-70 MPH when the gust front hit.

Parts of the roof at my work peeled up, power is out, and lots of tree damage in across parts of the metro it sounds like. Looks like there will hardly be any rain or thunder with this at all, which is all too much of a coincidence... best severe storm of the year and won’t see much, if any rain - keep doing your thing 2020!

Same in Lincoln. Some crazy wind rn, but hardly any rain.

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Severe TStorm Watch for a large chunk of Iowa. Lots of Severe T Storm warnings as well. I was worried it might not make it here, but it seems the bigger concern now is it may very well miss to the south. We could certainly use some rain.

Complex is holding together pretty well. Maybe we'll finally get something widespread.
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Complex is holding together pretty well. Maybe we'll finally get something widespread.

 

Yeah, it is looking pretty good.  It's got a long ways to go to get to eastern Iowa, so who knows what it will look like by then.  A quick half inch though would be nice.  

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I’m starting to get excited about it now since it isn’t diving south as much as I feared at first. And it’s still strong in nearly the most stable time of the day, but it looks like Omaha got shafted if I was looking correctly. At least they got a cool outflow from it. Should strengthen in the afternoon too.

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Real quick....so, Temp here is 83F and dew is on the muggy side. Hopefully some storms lata today! Um, also, CF rolls on thru tomorrow, but mostly dry. Hopefully, today my area gets some hvy rainfall.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The SPC actually put "100 mph gusts likely" in the watch description.

 

I want a good storm with heavy rain, but I don't want my garden thrashed.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Holy smokes, this is going to be scary....

 

 

A particularly dangerous situation has developed with severe storms moving in to northern IL / IN between 1 & 7 PM CDT; strong wind gusts up to 100 MPH are possible. Please prepare accordingly by securing outside items like lawn furniture or trashcans! #ilwx #inwx

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