Jump to content

August 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

On average there are 16 tornadoes in Michigan each year. Well this year Michigan just recorded its first one of 2020. It occurred in the UP in Iron County near Peavy Pond. The tornado was rated a high end EF1 with winds reported at around 105 MPH. Damage was limited to downed trees and power lines.

At this time it is sunny and a warm 88 here at my house.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

60% chance of watch issuance.

 

mcd1477.gif

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1477

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0417 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

 

Areas affected...northwest MN...far eastern ND

 

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

 

Valid 132117Z - 132245Z

 

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

 

SUMMARY...Convective initiation appears imminent between Grand Forks

and Fargo as of 415pm CDT. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are

forecast to develop as the cap weakens further.

 

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows the initial signs of

glaciation with storms near the Red River (415pm CDT). A mid-level

accas plume has overspread northwest MN into southeast ND on the

southern fringe of large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level

shortwave trough over Manitoba.

 

Surface analysis places a warm frontal zone from northeast ND

east-southeastward into northern MN near Duluth. Temperatures south

of the boundary are in the 80s with lower 70s dewpoints and

temperatures have remained generally in the mid-upper 70s over far

northern MN where a stratus deck has impeded stronger surface

heating. Objective analysis/RAP forecast soundings show a very to

extremely unstable airmass located over southeast ND into adjacent

parts of MN with MLCAPE 4000-4500 J/kg. The limiting factors for

severe are the weak large-scale forcing for ascent and modest

effective shear (ranging from 20 to 30 kt). The strongest

deep-layer shear is relatively confined near and north of the warm

front where storm organization potential will be enhanced due to the

stronger shear. Storms may eventually be capable of transient

rotation primarily near the warm front where flow is locally backed

with southeast surface winds. The stronger storms that can become

established may be capable of a large hail/severe gust threat.

Although tornado potential will likely be muted by modest deep-layer

shear, appreciable curvature to the hodograph near the warm front

may yield a localized tornado risk for 1-2 hours before storm cold

pools negatively interfere with one another.

  • Like 2

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not a big fan of severe potential right now. The boundary looks to be immediately on top of me. Western Minnesota should fare better.

 

 

It is VERY muggy right now. I drove into town through a light shower. It was just enough to moisten the air but not enough to cool things down at all, and as a result it feels very tropical outside. 82/74°F.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice wake-up call.

 

 

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
558 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

The National Weather Service in Grand Forks has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Clay County in northwestern Minnesota...
Southeastern Cass County in southeastern North Dakota...

* Until 700 AM CDT.

* At 558 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Frontier, or
7 miles south of Fargo, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
Rustad and Oxbow around 600 AM CDT.
Prairie Rose, Frontier and Briarwood around 605 AM CDT.
Moorhead, Dilworth and Reile`s Acres around 620 AM CDT.
North River and Fargo around 625 AM CDT.
Oakport and Glyndon around 630 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Moorhead
Airport.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 29 between mile markers 49 and 76.
Interstate 94 in North Dakota between mile markers 342 and 352.
Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 1 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
  • Like 1

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Happy Friday!  The beat goes on here in the valley of the Sun Heat!  Yesterday, we tied the record at PHX of 115F and today we are forecasted to top 116F.  Some notable Heat stats here in the valley:

 

1) Most days at 115F or better: 7 days and counting (old record 7 from 1974)

2) Most days at 110F or more: 37 days and counting

3) Most lows in the 90's: 20 days and counting (old record 15 from 2013)

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's a tweet from the NWS at Chicago and an update on the final count of tornado's from the Derecho....15...

 

 

 

(1/2) Here's a final map of all 15 (!) tornadoes that touched down during the 8/10/2020 derecho event. We also shaded areas where widespread straight line winds >75 mph likely occurred. Other pockets of enhanced straight-line wind damage likely happened outside the shading.

 

 

1.jpg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, that is some real heat. I just checked the record high for August there is 117 on August 14, 2015. The reading of 115 is in a tie for the 3rd hottest August day there and 116 is the 2nd hottest.

Happy Friday!  The beat goes on here in the valley of the Sun Heat!  Yesterday, we tied the record at PHX of 115F and today we are forecasted to top 116F.  Some notable Heat stats here in the valley:

 

1) Most days at 115F or better: 7 days and counting (old record 7 from 1974)

2) Most days at 110F or more: 37 days and counting

3) Most lows in the 90's: 20 days and counting (old record 15 from 2013)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, that is some real heat. I just checked the record high for August there is 117 on August 14, 2015. The reading of 115 is in a tie for the 3rd hottest August day there and 116 is the 2nd hottest.

Indeed it is!  In August we typically have more moisture in the air due to the Monsoon but it has been lacking, thus the extreme hot temps are persisting.  Usually, the humidity will keep temps at bay but not this year.  Last month, PHX topped out at 118F but I doubt we get that Hot this month.  We'll get close today but prob not that hot.  Nonetheless, I'm actually looking forward to potentially tying another record here today.

 

The west valley got hit by some very slow moving heavy storms that dumped 1-2" of rain near Buckeye which is where a lot of the local crop is grown (cotton, lettuce, spinach, alfalfa, citrus fruits).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Tom you're baking down there!

And that is quite the story over there in N IL. 15 tornadoes!!?

It’s crazy I tell ya! I’m surprised there aren’t more fires TBH. I also think it’s also due to the lack of thunderstorms which can produce dry lighting and spark fires. Looking out into the extended, when I get back home, the weather is looking mighty fine! I’m ok with the Heat for now...but ya, it’s friggin’ Hot my man!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sounds like this is the last day of the humidity for awhile, thank goodness.  My son is a freshman, and at our school 9-12 grade football practices together.  He is just exhausted when he gets home due to the high dews.  Tomorrow looks like dews in the 50's and NWS Hastings says next week will be warm but dews in the 50's to low 60's is much more comfortable.  A/C at schools is running non stop.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Been super busy last couple of days. Had to fly to Boston-NYC-Wash DC on business. Very pleased w aircraft regulations as well. Airports are much less crowded, something I am not accustomed to.

 

Anyways, so, back in MI, temps here are at 83F and a muggy dew.

 

I heard about TS Josephine. Looks like it is a fishstorm and will remain at that cat.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well it’s looking like the awful rain/storm season might continue here in the Omaha metro tonight. Solid line of storms to our west has nearly broken apart and the best storm cell of the day was directly west of us, and decided to drop straight south while the rest of the line was moving due east.

 

I am throwing in the towel on the storm season for the rest of the summer if we can’t get anything to develop towards our area tonight... moderate drought conditions must beget severe drought around here this year. With what looks like two weeks of bone dry weather upcoming, things are going to get much worse before they get better.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well it’s looking like the awful rain/storm season might continue here in the Omaha metro tonight. Solid line of storms to our west has nearly broken apart and the best storm cell of the day was directly west of us, and decided to drop straight south while the rest of the line was moving due east.

 

I am throwing in the towel on the storm season for the rest of the summer if we can’t get anything to develop towards our area tonight... moderate drought conditions must beget severe drought around here this year. With what looks like two weeks of bone dry weather upcoming, things are going to get much worse before they get better.

Front moved through here dry as usual. Dew has dropped from 77 to now 68. Really been a very poor rain and storm season in my immediate area. Many others north and south have had an unbelievable year. The haves and have nots continues. Can it change for the snow season?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I must've been in a lucky spot as there was some wind damage all across my community as well though mainly just numerous larger branches and some trees blown down.

 

We have a large tree here that still bears the scars from the 1998 derecho. It's lopsided but to close to a building (with branches arching over the roof) to cut down. Makes nice shade as well.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

PHX topped out at 117F yesterday which tied the record for the day and I don't see temps getting that high in the near future.  Hey, even Skilling is talking about the record Heat out here in the desert SW.  I didn't know it was the all-time hottest temp for the month of August.  Pretty incredible.

 

 

1.jpg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hoping our CR members are doing ok. Sounds like much of CR still is without power, etc. That's probably why they aren't posting on here, plus probably also to busy with clean up/repair or maybe just trying to survive!

Just trying to survive! Still no power. Trying to help neighbors since my yard is taken care of. So glad the cold front has arrived. House was getting really hot and making it a struggle to keep temp up in fridge and freezer. Hoping to have power by Tuesday.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Attm, its 71F under mostly cloudy skies. Dew is on the muggy side. T'stms are expected today as a CF approaches w a nice relief next week. All of next week is gorgeous w tons of sunshine and low humidity along w temps in the 70s and 80s for highs and lows in the 50s.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

333 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

 

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-160845-

Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-

St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-

333 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

 

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

 

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 

Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop this

afternoon with the heating of the day and last into the evening

hours. A cold front is then expected to bring additional

thunderstorms overnight. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible

with the afternoon and early evening activity. Damaging winds to 60

mph, hail to around 1 inch, and localized flooding are the main

hazards. Storm motion looks to be variable around 10 mph.

 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

 

There is a chance of lingering thunderstorms Sunday morning.

 

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

TS Kyle and Josephine will be no harm to anyone in the US, as they will remain in the Atlantic and moving away. Only exception is that Bermuda "might" see some of Josephine's affects, but nothing extreme. Probably just some wind n rain and wave action.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just trying to survive! Still no power. Trying to help neighbors since my yard is taken care of. So glad the cold front has arrived. House was getting really hot and making it a struggle to keep temp up in fridge and freezer. Hoping to have power by Tuesday.

Thinking of you all out there in the Cedar Rapids area as well as the rest of Central and Eastern Iowa, as well as Northern Illinois/Chicagoland as the recovery continues. I am hoping that you get your power restored as soon as possible. We all get a little guilty sometimes (being weather enthusiasts) of looking forward to witnessing and experiencing severe weather events like the derecho, flooding, hurricanes, and tornadoes, only to have to pull back when we have to live through the aftermath with cleaning up property damage and enduring long duration power outages. 

 

It's amazing how outside of the Midwest there has been very little coverage of the derecho... it sounds like supplies and aid have been coming your way from every direction, and I am very thankful that Iowans are tough and hard-working people that will work together to make the absolute best of a terrible situation. Take care out there and keep us posted on the recovery efforts as we are thinking about our neighbors out to the east. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thinking of you all out there in the Cedar Rapids area as well as the rest of Central and Eastern Iowa, as well as Northern Illinois/Chicagoland as the recovery continues. I am hoping that you get your power restored as soon as possible. We all get a little guilty sometimes (being weather enthusiasts) of looking forward to witnessing and experiencing severe weather events like the derecho, flooding, hurricanes, and tornadoes, only to have to pull back when we have to live through the aftermath with cleaning up property damage and enduring long duration power outages.

 

It's amazing how outside of the Midwest there has been very little coverage of the derecho... it sounds like supplies and aid have been coming your way from every direction, and I am very thankful that Iowans are tough and hard-working people that will work together to make the absolute best of a terrible situation. Take care out there and keep us posted on the recovery efforts as we are thinking about our neighbors out to the east.

Thanks for the kind words man. It has been amazing to witness the efforts from everyone. There was so much debris everywhere it was overwhelming to figure out where to start. I heard that over 2500 power poles were down In the city alone. On top of that over half the Cities substations were pulled out of the ground. Major infrastructure has been destroyed which is the reason for the extended outages.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At downtown Detroit currently in a Greek restaurant called "Pegasus Taverna." I've been here b4. Great spot. Excellent prices. Terrific food. Check it out! I know the owner, great friend.

 

http://pegasustavernas.com/wp-content/gallery/pegasus/Pegasus-Tavern_EW-96.JPG

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here’s a link to a video by Nick Stewart of KGAN CBS2 of the derecho. It’s not that much to see and maybe you saw it, but winds were actually strong enough to blow out his rear windows! And those should be harder to break than larger house windows. The reason I know it’s the rear windows is I saw a photo of it elsewhere.

https://youtu.be/22-iUyxlLl0

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here’s a link to a video by Nick Stewart of KGAN CBS2 of the derecho. It’s not that much to see and maybe you saw it, but winds were actually strong enough to blow out his rear windows! And those should be harder to break than larger house windows. The reason I know it’s the rear windows is I saw a photo of it elsewhere.

https://youtu.be/22-iUyxlLl0

My goodness, the power and fury that Mother Nature can generate is amazing and humbling at the same time.  Like Brian said earlier, us wx enthusiasts love to see active weather but when we have to deal with the aftermath it becomes real. The understanding that this video is only 4 minutes long, when reports stated it lasted 20 minutes or more, you can't help but wonder how those in the epicenter felt while going through this storm head on.  It must have been nerve wrecking.

 

I saw this map of the power outages and it looks like Hawkeye's place is in the red area....hope to hear from him soon!

1.jpg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 5767

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    2. 5767

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    3. 5767

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

×
×
  • Create New...