August 2020 Observations and Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

Storm surge will be 15ft in Louisiana. Given the very flat terrain there, that could be devastating even pretty far inland.

[westMJim]

Yesterdays official low of 72 at Grand Rapids tied 1948 for the record warmest minimum for August 25. Here at my house I recorded 0.16" of rain  yesterday that is more then the airport where only 0.04" fell. At this time it is 68 here and at last report it was 69 out at the airport with cloudy skies.

[Minny_Weather]

Laura is a major wobbler, holy hell. I don't think anyone can confidently track this thing.

[james1976]

Laura is a major wobbler, holy hell. I don't think anyone can confidently track this thing.

Down to 963 with 115 winds

[Niko]

Its pouring here imby. Had a few rumbles of thunder and lightning, but no biggie. Temp is currently at a very pleasant 64F. It stays unsettled until Saturday, so definitely some needed rainfall.

[Madtown]

Laura up to 145mph at landfall

[Niko]

Laura has the potential to reach (cat4), so we will see what happens. Until that happens, good luck to all down there. This is no "Harvey", but it is also nothing to play around with and not take seriously. Hopefully, people have evacuated.

 

 

Key note: Houston needs to watch the track closely because any movement westward could mean a huge difference in seeing hurricane force winds, rather than TS force.

[Minny_Weather]

Some shear may weaken Laura right before she hits land, but it'll be too little too late. Could mean the difference between cat 3 and 4, but it won't matter, the surge is still going to be catastrophic for Louisiana. With a fresh eye, too.

[CentralNebWeather]

To say it has been dry in Central Nebraska so far in August, is an understatement.  Top 2-3 driest Augusts' in 125 years.

 

https://twitter.com/NWSHastings/status/1298639446749802496?s=20

[Minny_Weather]

To say it has been dry in Central Nebraska so far in August, is an understatement. Top 2-3 driest Augusts' in 125 years.

 

https://twitter.com/NWSHastings/status/1298639446749802496?s=20

The air itself hasn't been dry, that's for sure.

[Minny_Weather]

Laura needs to make a NNW turn soon if the Houston area wants to be spared from hurricane force sustained winds.

[james1976]

125 and 956 now. Strengthening fast

[Minny_Weather]

Latest RECON flight suggests we may now have a cat 4 on our hands. Still nothing keeping it from strengthening. It has a fresh eye and very little shear to work against. 

[Minny_Weather]

Just to show how much she's been wobbling around. 

 

[Niko]

I am adding a slight possibility of a cat5 (at rapid intensification), but who knows. Waters are extremely warm in the GOM. They are expected it to increase to a cat4 (approx. at 145-150mph sustain at some point in time), so, the odds at getting Laura at >156mph are pretty good, to say the least. We will see. It will be a close call.

[james1976]

Laura at 140mph now!

[Minny_Weather]

NWS Lake Charles has been evacuated. NWS Brownsville (who is normally a backup office as their normal CWA is only 6 small counties) is covering for them now.

[Minny_Weather]

I've always found tornado warnings during a major hurricane to be ironic, as usually the winds on the tornado are less intense than the winds of the hurricane itself. Anyways, here's the first of probably many tornado warnings:

 

 

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
Issued by National Weather Service Brownsville TX
110 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northeastern Cameron Parish in southwestern Louisiana...
Southeastern Jefferson Davis Parish in southwestern Louisiana...
Southwestern Acadia Parish in southwestern Louisiana...
Northwestern Vermilion Parish in southwestern Louisiana...

* Until 130 PM CDT.

* At 109 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located OVER Gueydan, moving west at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Klondike around 115 PM CDT.
Lake Arthur around 120 PM CDT.
Lowry around 125 PM CDT.
Thornwell around 130 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Roanoke and Florence Landing.

This includes Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 55 and
58.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

[OKwx2k4]

This hurricane has now been classed as a Cat 4 of 140 mph.

 

God help them. Not good history.

 

 

What models aren't accounting for is that this hurricane is also going to be traveling inland over some of the most fully saturated ground I've seen in decades. Its a self-sustaining atmosphere. I'm in for trouble all the way up here.

[Niko]

"Laura" is looking like a catastrophic Hurricane.

 

Hope everyone down there has evacuated and has a plan where to go.

[Niko]

In the meantime, its cloudy and muggy here imby w temps in the 70s. The temp is not all that bad, which is good, but humidity level is a bit too high. More showers and storms are likely in the coming days, until the front finally clears the area and allows, cooler, drier air to filter in.

[james1976]

Pressure down to 948 now on Laura

[brianc400]

Very cool!  BTW, did you get hit by the storms earlier this morning???

 

Unfortunately, no. It was quite a show of constant lightning, but the good cell to my NW sank south as it approached and I got only 0.10". I also missed out on the Lake Co. storm just north of me the previous day. I've had barely a half inch of rain since July 15 despite several opportunities. I have 2+" crevices opening up IMBY.

[Minny_Weather]

I always went to Lake Charles, LA as a kid as it was 2 hours from where I was raised near Houston. I remember the devastation that they saw after Rita, and this surge is supposed to be worse there than Rita. Feel really bad for them.

[Stormy]

This hurricane has now been classed as a Cat 4 of 140 mph.

God help them. Not good history.

What models aren't accounting for is that this hurricane is also going to be traveling inland over some of the most fully saturated ground I've seen in decades. Its a self-sustaining atmosphere. I'm in for trouble all the way up here.

I really need some of that moisture up here!

[Stormy]

Unfortunately, no. It was quite a show of constant lightning, but the good cell to my NW sank south as it approached and I got only 0.10". I also missed out on the Lake Co. storm just north of me the previous day. I've had barely a half inch of rain since July 15 despite several opportunities. I have 2+" crevices opening up IMBY.

Wow, you must be in an unlucky spot like me! Except you had even less than I did. I’ve had 1.14” since July 16 or around 1.50” if I include rainfall on July 15. Lawns now are looking like they did in 2012 except in 2012 it started raining on August 4th with a big storm.

[james1976]

Laura now at 150mph and 940 pressure. Crazy!

[Niko]

 Cat5 hitting the coastline of LA is a real possibility. This has definitely surpassed "Rita" from back in 2005. Anyone still there (that has not evacuated) will have a very rough nite.

[Minny_Weather]

Cat5 hitting the coastline of LA is a real possibility. This has definitely surpassed "Rita" from back in 2005. Anyone still there (that has not evacuated) will have a very rough nite.

Evacuations are more complicated this time because social distancing is being implemented on the evacuation buses and in shelters.

[Niko]

Evacuations are more complicated this time because social distancing is being implemented on the evacuation buses and in shelters.

Yep.....bad combo having a Hurricane and Covid19 regulations. Tbh, If I had to evacuate from Laura, I would just make it easier on myself and safer and drive to a friends or relatives house. Now, if you have noone to go to, then, that would be a problem for those individuals. That is why a plan is always crucial. You don't wanna be stuck in covid19 rules in the middle of a major Hurricane.

 

Btw: a friend of mine that has a friend who lives there is riding out this hurricane. Not sure what to think about that. I am still trying to make some sense outta it. Let me know if you do.

[Minny_Weather]

Btw: a friend of mine that has a friend who lives there is riding out this hurricane. Not sure what to think about that. I am still trying to make some sense outta it. Let me know if you do.

Where at? Everywhere in Southwest Louisiana is going to be uninhabitable due to surge flooding, same with the Port Arthur, TX area probably. I know someone who lives in Orange (right smack dab on the Sabine River) who made the smart last minute decision to flee to Austin.

[Niko]

Where at? Everywhere in Southwest Louisiana is going to be uninhabitable due to surge flooding, same with the Port Arthur, TX area probably.

That is exactly my thought. This person is simply nuts. Not sure what he is thinking. My friend is completely speechless. My only thought is that he might have a nearby vicinal where he can be safe.

[Niko]

Clearly you can see the "Warm-Front" over my area in SEMI w that long, white streak of cloudiness, stretching right into southern parts of Canada. Just north of me, temps were in the 70s, while south of that front, temps soared in the upper 80s.

[gabel23]

If you can’t read velocity radar very well this should help. Incredible winds on both sides of the eye wall; this thing should make landfall at least as a Cat 4. Update coming soon.

[Bryan1117]

If you can’t read velocity radar very well this should help. Incredible winds on both sides of the eye wall; this thing should make landfall at least as a Cat 4. Update coming soon.

What a monster of a storm! Hoping most everyone got out of the way of this hurricane. 

[Minny_Weather]

Eyewall replacement cycle currently occurring. That combined with shear may weaken it to a 4 for landfall. Not that it matters, the surge is devastating either way.

[snowstorm83]

I read somewhere that 150 residents of Cameron chose to stay and ride out the storm. If that's true, most - if not all of them are probably going to die. That would be a super sad situation, but I don't know what kind of logic tells you not to gtfo of there. 

 

Edit: With many people staying in mobile homes/RVs, which is why I say that

[snowstorm83]

Been watching the Reed Timmer livestream in downtown Lake Charles. Absolutely insane, skyscrapers getting shredded. 

[snowstorm83]

Best supporting character of the stream goes to Reed’s windshield wipers for scraping on a dry windshield for 2 hours

[Stormy]

In other news there's an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across eastern Ia, northern Illinois, and adjacent areas later tomorrow.

 

I'm just glad I don't need to worry about hurricanes. Just a lot of damaging winds and many times not even much lightning.