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August 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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In other news there's an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across eastern Ia, northern Illinois, and adjacent areas later tomorrow.

 

I'm just glad I don't need to worry about hurricanes. Just a lot of damaging winds and many times not even much lightning.

When I saw LOT's graphic my initial thoughts were..."uh, oh...not again"....

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The over night low at GRR and here at my house was 75. IF it stays above 75 until midnight it will tie 1973 for the warmest minimum for August 27th (a low of 74 was recorded in 1993 and 3 times the low was 73 in 2013, 1990 and 1977.) At the current time it is already 82 here at my house with a DP of 72.

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Crazy, busy morning in the business world, but let me just move on to weather real quickly, it is gross outside. Currently at 88F w a HI of 97F. Dew is a beautiful 74F. :wacko: Hopefully I will have some severe weather later today, although, it will be sporadic, but whomever gets in on them, will be encountering severe cells due to more of an unstable airmass, unlike yesterday, when morning t'stms were just strong. We will see!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The GFS is showing the best chance for rain tomorrow afternoon/evening in Eastern Iowa, just grazing Iowa City and CR.  We are in an enhanced risk for severe storms, so it will mostly depend on if they fire or not.  Models seem to favor futher east and northeast in particular for better coverage tomorrow afternoon/evening.  Hopefully we'll get lucky and a storm will drop a quick inch.

 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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I don't want any severe storms, but we sure do need some rain.  The Euro had been showing a much wetter pattern next week, but it has been drying up again.  Last night's run had no rain for much of Iowa through ten days.  Ugh.  What we really need, in a big way, is an all-day, light-to-moderate, 1" soaker, with temps in the 60s.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Drought monitor showing the dry conditions over Central Nebraska. Keeps getting worse by the week. August has done us no favors in the precipitation department.

 

https://twitter.com/ntvstimreith/status/1299028246223360002?s=21

 

D0 has been extended to Northern Lancaster, including my place, not surprised. At least fall is around the corner. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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I don't want any severe storms, but we sure do need some rain.  The Euro had been showing a much wetter pattern next week, but it has been drying up again.  Last night's run had no rain for much of Iowa through ten days.  Ugh.  What we really need, in a big way, is an all-day, light-to-moderate, 1" soaker, with temps in the 60s.

When I said I like my rain chances I still hadn’t checked the models, and I see they don’t really look to great. I need 3” just to start closing the cracks, but 1” would be a great start. NWS already lowering rainfall chances for tomorrow and Monday.

 

BTW, did your rain gauge survive the derecho? And if it did, it likely blew the top off like mine has already and didn’t record properly.

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Looking forward towards the cooler, drier weather over the weekend. It will feel awesome. In the meantime, its soupy outside! Hopefully some severe weather moves in between now and Friday. Drought monitor looks better, but we still need to work more on rain chances, until it completely satisfies the area.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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What once was a devastating "Hurricane", it now remains a TS. Unfortunately, 4 people lost their lives during this storm and numbers will most likely increase. Laura sure did mean business.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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BTW, did your rain gauge survive the derecho? And if it did, it likely blew the top off like mine has already and didn’t record properly.

 

My rain gauge was on its stand in the open middle of the yard.  It was totally unharmed.  I recorded 1.69" from the storm.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The GFS is showing the best chance for rain tomorrow afternoon/evening in Eastern Iowa, just grazing Iowa City and CR. We are in an enhanced risk for severe storms, so it will mostly depend on if they fire or not. Models seem to favor futher east and northeast in particular for better coverage tomorrow afternoon/evening. Hopefully we'll get lucky and a storm will drop a quick inch.

 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

What a disgusting and frustrating map for East Central Nebraska and Western Iowa... the severe drought continues to deepen here and Mother Nature continues to do us absolutely no favors.
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What a disgusting and frustrating map for East Central Nebraska and Western Iowa... the severe drought continues to deepen here and Mother Nature continues to do us absolutely no favors.

 

Really just sad at this point. Yards are basically drying up. Our practice field gets watered everyday and still is getting brown. Day after day of mid 90’s with little to no rain for a month is tough to take. Cooler weather is coming, but again rain chances that once looked promising, are slowly diminishing.

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Looks like I'll be sharing in the "cool" down that is coming this weekend!  Moisture will be coming up from the Baja due to Tropical Storm Hernan and usher in some much needed relief from the Heat!  Temps are forecast to drop into the mid/upper 90's for Sun and into Mon.  It looks like a solid set up is coming together for a good valley soaker.

 

06Z NAM advertising the tropical nature of these storms on Sun....DP's in the 70's which is quite rare...

 

nam3km_apcpn_swus_20.png

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Here at my house I recorded 0.80" of rain fall overnight. And yesterdays official low of 73 at GRR tied 2013, 1990 and 1977 for the 3rd warmest minimum for any August 27th at Grand Rapids. At this time it is cloudy and 69 here.

Hmmm, those years lead to some very cold winters that followed those Summers...interestingly, I'm starting to see some analogs coming into the picture that are quite eye opening.

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First big night of HS Football in Nebraska.  Front is coming through here in the afternoon, winds should switch out of the north and dews should fall.  Shaping up to be a beautiful night for football.  I have stepped away from being an assistant coach at the varsity level at our school and now coach 7th and 8th grade teams.  However, I was asked by the new varsity coach to chart the opponents offense in the pressbox during the varsity games this year.  I'm am excited, though a bit nervous, as I've never looked at a game from the box.  

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Attm, it is 67F w 100% RH. Everything is saturated outside from what I am seeing. Also, alotta rainfall fell last nite and some strong t'stms came along w that too. I was awaken by some real loud thunder and vivid lightning. Aside of all of that, I am under a Flash Flood Warning.

 

Btw: for a min, I thought skies were clearing and a rainbow was forming.  Almost had a "Trichromatic" look to it, but it faded away. Oh well!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Weekend looks gorgeous. Lows have potential to be in the 40s and highs barely in the low 70s. Dare I say signs of "Autumn."

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I sure hope we get some thunderstorms today. The drought just keeps getting worse around here, so a strong thunderstorm with heavy rain would be a great thing. 

 

We are under completely sunny skies now, so hopefully we can get the instability needed to have strong thunderstorms. 

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This is what happened to the Lake Charles radar.

 

Egby-Sz-SVAAggv8-T.jpg

 

On that topic, I was pretty impressed with how long the LCH ASOS made it. Survived a few hours of regular 70-80+ gusts before failing not long after 98G132! 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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This is what happened to the Lake Charles radar.

 

Egby-Sz-SVAAggv8-T.jpg

It's last radar pass was a pure once in a lifetime thing though. Never had saw a hurricane really "tee up" perdectly at one of those but must've been like a little golf ball at some point.

Picture perfect.

Talk about going out with a bang.

:lol:

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Yeah, the cells are popping.  The question is will they fill out a nice line or just pepper a few lucky towns?

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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