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August 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Storms are already forming along highway 20 in Iowa. With sunny skies and temps near 90, we have a lot of instablity for the storms to get stronger.

 

SPC will likely issue a severe thunderstorm watch in Iowa. 

 

Edit: Severe thunderstorm watch just issued.

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Unreal. Strong thunderstorm along highway 30 fell apart right as it reached Cedar Rapids. This was the only chance of rain we have for the next week. The drought is going to get so much worse here. 

 

Not sure why it's been so hard for Iowa to get rain this month. 

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Unreal. Strong thunderstorm along highway 30 fell apart right as it reached Cedar Rapids. This was the only chance of rain we have for the next week. The drought is going to get so much worse here.

 

Not sure why it's been so hard for Iowa to get rain this month.

It’s not just an Iowa problem... as Omaha approaches an 11 inch precipitation deficit for the year so far. It is frustrating to see everything turning brown here.
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I’ve survived droughts and dry periods before. It’s just the pattern we are in with to much subsidence, or split flow, or I don’t know what. I know they say that drought builds on itself, but it really could rain a lot if some conditions weren’t present or would change because we often had and have plenty of at least low level moisture for systems even with dry soils. In 1992 we went from extremely dry to extremely wet in a short time. And wet to dry and vise versa occurred many times. Some large scale pattern needs to change or at least I’m trying to believe that’s how it is. lol

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PHX tied another record two days ago on the 27th hitting 113F and missed tying yesterday's record by 1 degree touching 112F.  An unprecedented achievement was made yesterday, that being the PHX metro just had its 50th day of the Summer recording a 110F+ reading.  The old record was 33 and nobody in their wildest dreams would ever had thought we would make it to 50 and counting....2020 has been one of those years we will remember for a while and for many reasons.  

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The prayers for moisture may be answered here in the valley as the Heavens above shall provide much needed moisture out here in Arizona.  The NWS has issued a Flash Flood watch yesterday for the next couple days.  The most widespread Monsoon rain event of the season is poised to start later today and run through Mon.

 

 

 

Flash Flood Watch Flood Watch
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
215 AM MST Sat Aug 29 2020

.Abundant moisture will spread across much of the area today into
Sunday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening are forecast to become more widespread late tonight into
Sunday morning resulting in areas of heavy rainfall capable of
producing flash flooding. Additional showers and thunderstorms will
also be possible Sunday afternoon and evening. .

 

 

With the added moisture and cloud cover, a string of 90's are in the forecast as well!

 

I've never seen Heavy Rain in my grid out here in a LONG time...

 

 

 

 

Detailed Forecast
Today
Sunny, with a high near 100. South wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 11pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 81. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 95. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Sunday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 79. Calm wind becoming north northeast around 5 mph after midnight.
Monday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 95. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the morning.

 

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As can be seen by yesterdays rain fall totals in the summer time there can be a big difference in how much rain fall in a short distance. GRR yesterday reported 1.21″ while at Muskegon they only reported 0.13″ Holland 1.08″ Barry 0.31″ and here at my house 0.85″ While to the east at Lansing they topped out at 1.61″. At this time it is cloudy and 66 here at my house. Just to the north and northeast of me there looks to still be a lot of power outages. I only see one report of trees down in the Long Lake area.

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Looks like the wet weather is just about done within my vicinity. Total rainfall exceeded 2.00" and more to my south. Very pleased w that. Now comes, dry, cooler sunnier weather.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, its 68F under mostly cloudy skies and still humid. Dry air has not made it yet, but its coming! Lows tanite in near 50F or so and possibly 40s for tomorrow nite.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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PHX tied another record two days ago on the 27th hitting 113F and missed tying yesterday's record by 1 degree touching 112F. An unprecedented achievement was made yesterday, that being the PHX metro just had its 50th day of the Summer recording a 110F+ reading. The old record was 33 and nobody in their wildest dreams would ever had thought we would make it to 50 and counting....2020 has been one of those years we will remember for a while and for many reasons.

I'd say a longer term pattern shift would cause this. Correct?

 

Too many perfect events this year.

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More trouble brewing out in the eastern Atlantic. Lets see what happens in the coming days.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I'd say a longer term pattern shift would cause this. Correct?

 

Too many perfect events this year.

Hard to say at this early stage...would like to see in a few years if this pattern persists.  It wasn't long ago we had a couple banner years in a row in terms of precip and filled up all the lakes and reservoirs in a blink of the eye.  We'll have to see how it all plays out.

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Hard to say at this early stage...would like to see in a few years if this pattern persists. It wasn't long ago we had a couple banner years in a row in terms of precip and filled up all the lakes and reservoirs in a blink of the eye. We'll have to see how it all plays out.

Well, safe bet to say that pattern has shifted east with time. 4-5 years of high precip has been the rule here. It appears to the eye that the tropical domain has went through a type of realignment as well.

 

It will be hard to say. We have an atmosphere laden with about 4 years of smoke and ash particles from wildfires and volcanoes as well so could be any number of things. Weird year.

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It got down to 54 here overnight. At this time it is sunny and 62 with a DP of 54. We are now heading into the "don't have to" season that is don't have to have the air on and don't have to have the heat on. Soon enough we will be having the heat on all day long.

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Our first winter headline of the season in the CONUS has been hoisted! 

 

 

 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
234 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2020

WYZ114-301645-
/O.NEW.KCYS.HZ.A.0001.200831T0600Z-200831T1200Z/
Snowy Range-
Including the cities of Centennial and Albany
234 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2020

...HARD FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 possible.

* WHERE...Snowy Range County.

* WHEN...Early Monday Morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.
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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Its gorgeous outside. Temp at 64F and dry conditions.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I just came back from a long walk and enjoyed one of the coolest mornings here yet in many many weeks.  It was 78F but a bit humid due to the monsoonal moisture that fell in neighboring cities.  Hopefully some more storms fire back up today because my area needs the rain!  We have missed out on any substantial rainfall.

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Another Severe Thunderstorm Watch, another bust.  NWS has had a rough year in this area forecasting severe storms.  They posted a watch last evening and cancelled it a few hours later as the storms died off north of my area.  Not a sprinkle.  56 degrees with a north breeze at 7 AM feels amazing, but the drought conditions continue.

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Picked up 0.05” of rainfall last night in my backyard, basically just enough to wet the recently baked ground. It just seems so difficult to get any type of decent or appreciable rainfall around here.

 

The next 10 days does not hold much hope to stopping the rainfall deficit around here from deepening further. Very thankful for the cooler temps though as the constant 90-100 degree heat was wearing on me.

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Picked up 0.05” of rainfall last night in my backyard, basically just enough to wet the recently baked ground. It just seems so difficult to get any type of decent or appreciable rainfall around here.

 

The next 10 days does not hold much hope to stopping the rainfall deficit around here from deepening further. Very thankful for the cooler temps though as the constant 90-100 degree heat was wearing on me.

0.0" here.  Nothing in the extended.  There are now cracks showing up in the yard where sprinklers don't reach.  I would say corn harvest may be early this year.  

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NWS Twitter stats.  Ugly is a good word to use, but other bad words might come to mind seeing these awful dry numbers for Central Nebraska.

 

https://twitter.com/NWSHastings/status/1300469042105384975?s=20

The Sutton area looks to bask in rainy glory.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Splendid outside! Temp is at 75F under mostly sunny skies. There is no dew to speak of, thankfully. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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