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August 2020 Observations and Discussion


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Well, here we go, I’m fast approaching the severe warned storms in NE CO. These storms look massive on the horizon. I could see two rain shafts. Hope the hail doesn’t happen. The CO prairies look beautiful along with the dark storms clouds contrasting the dry grassy landscape.

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Don't usually post here in the summer but todays winds are worthy. 133000 customers with no power at peak (do the math- that's all of DSM metro and burbs) What got me was that 50 mph winds lasted near

I had to rub my eyes when I saw these temps for the opening days of September...@CentralNeb, the Euro is making your wish come true...daytime highs in the 60's???  @Fargo, your gonna feel the Autumn c

Hello from the Black hills of South Dakota! Never been here before and up here with the in-laws; what a geologic wonder! Took a train today from Hill City to Keystone and the outcrop of limestone and

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Good morning from Brighton, CO!  I am just outside of Denver and the journey continues today up into the mountains.  The plan is to stop by Vail and Aspen today and be a tourist for the day.  Might try and check out a hiking trail if time permits.  On the drive into CO, thankfully, we missed the brunt of the severe warned cell that ripped through Fort Morgan that was out ahead of us.  The lightning show was neat to see as well as the rain shafts.  When we got to our hotel, the car parked next to us had major hail damage and my father asked if that was from today.  Guess what, the poor guy said Yes!  It was terrible, that car was wrecked and Thank Goodness we didn't end up in it.  

 

Meantime, I'm sipping on my coffee and doing some catch up on work stuff and waiting for the sun to rise here just after 6:00am.  It is a cool 63F.  One thing I noticed around sun set, there was a murky sky.  I thought it was the humidity but it's actually the haze from the wild fires in western CO.  Hopefully they get some moisture around here bc things are really dry in the mountains.

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Another cool, crisp morning right at 50°. Some cloud cover is expected today with temps in the mid to upper 70s. Last day of the cooler weather as temps and humidity start trending upward tomorrow.

I hadn't checked this forum yesterday, but noticed I also had a low of 50° yesterday morning which is the lowest of this cool spell.

 

Saw a few sprinkles this morning. Hoping for some rain in the next week! The ground has big cracks & the lawns are ugly brown. No mowing for awhile now.

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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Good morning from Brighton, CO! I am just outside of Denver and the journey continues today up into the mountains. The plan is to stop by Vail and Aspen today and be a tourist for the day. Might try and check out a hiking trail if time permits. On the drive into CO, thankfully, we missed the brunt of the severe warned cell that ripped through Fort Morgan that was out ahead of us. The lightning show was neat to see as well as the rain shafts. When we got to our hotel, the car parked next to us had major hail damage and my father asked if that was from today. Guess what, the poor guy said Yes! It was terrible, that car was wrecked and Thank Goodness we didn't end up in it.

 

Meantime, I'm sipping on my coffee and doing some catch up on work stuff and waiting for the sun to rise here just after 6:00am. It is a cool 63F. One thing I noticed around sun set, there was a murky sky. I thought it was the humidity but it's actually the haze from the wild fires in western CO. Hopefully they get some moisture around here bc things are really dry in the mountains.

I took that same drive last year on our way to Los Angeles. Have fun in the mountains!
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... Really?

 

day2otlk_0600.gif

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Nice, unexpected pop up thunderstorm dropping some very heavy rain and small hail across the Omaha area. This is a nice surprise!

 

Looks like it mostly missed my backyard unfortunately, but at my workplace it poured down for about 15-20 minutes which was great to see!

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Longer range consensus on the models brings the Heat back for mid to late August for most of the Plains and Great Lakes.  

The epicenter of that heat looks to be over the high plains. I'll probably get fun lower 90s.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Some decent scattered storms moved and currently still are moving over some of the driest area of Iowa which is nice to see. I’m kind of surprised it’s making it this far east. It might make it close to my area after awhile.

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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I hadn't checked this forum yesterday, but noticed I also had a low of 50° yesterday morning which is the lowest of this cool spell.

Saw a few sprinkles this morning. Hoping for some rain in the next week! The ground has big cracks & the lawns are ugly brown. No mowing for awhile now.

Actually need to drive north only 2 miles or less to see much greener lawns.

 

Correction: Had enough rain to wet the sidewalks.

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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Good morning from Brighton, CO! I am just outside of Denver and the journey continues today up into the mountains. The plan is to stop by Vail and Aspen today and be a tourist for the day. Might try and check out a hiking trail if time permits. On the drive into CO, thankfully, we missed the brunt of the severe warned cell that ripped through Fort Morgan that was out ahead of us. The lightning show was neat to see as well as the rain shafts. When we got to our hotel, the car parked next to us had major hail damage and my father asked if that was from today. Guess what, the poor guy said Yes! It was terrible, that car was wrecked and Thank Goodness we didn't end up in it.

 

Meantime, I'm sipping on my coffee and doing some catch up on work stuff and waiting for the sun to rise here just after 6:00am. It is a cool 63F. One thing I noticed around sun set, there was a murky sky. I thought it was the humidity but it's actually the haze from the wild fires in western CO. Hopefully they get some moisture around here bc things are really dry in the mountains.

Have fun! I wasn’t in Colorado in around 25 years or since 1995. My sister and brother in law just returned from the Co. mountains early this week. They go on a short vacation out there most summers.

 

Not sure if i’ld be brave enough but maybe you should try para sailing (not sure if it’s called that) where you run off the edge of the mountain cliff, with a guide of course. Need to schedule ahead of time though.

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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Tomorrow morning's severe threat.... NAM is the only model showing something worthwhile this far East. Still in the slight risk.

 

day2otlk_1730.gif

 

2020080618_NAM_021_46.86,-96.65_severe_m

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Managed to pick up about 0.40" of rain from this morning's surprise showers and thunderstorms in my backyard (there was only a 20% chance or rain this morning according to the NWS)... I have seen some posts online that some people in the area picked up 1 to 2 inches of rain this morning.

 

With the latest drought monitor from this week showing the growing severity of drought conditions in Northeast and East-Central Nebraska into Western and Central Iowa, all of us around here can hopefully see more of these types of rainfall events to keep things from getting any worse, even though this one was localized and not too widespread. 

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Good morning from Avon, CO which is just west of Vail.  It is a nippy (50F) and a little breezy here this morning.  It is still dark outside as daylight will take a little longer to appear compared to when I was just outside of Denver yesterday morning due to the mountainous terrain.  I left the patio deck sliding door open and had to close it when I woke up bc it got a wee bit chilly.  Nonetheless, it's been a fun trip so far and I'm looking forward to checking out Aspen later today and then likely down to Durango.

 

Taking a look into the local reporting stations, some spots have dropped into the low/mid 30's.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KCODILLO41

 

On the way into Avon, we veered off of hwy 70 and stopped into a couple towns that surround a man-made reservoir called Dillon Reservoir.  These places were amazing and exactly what I wanted to experience.  These towns were buzzin' with traffic and packed with people who are your quintessential outdoors adventurers.  The cities were called Silverthorne, Dillon and Frisco.  They all surround this rather large lake and there is so much real estate development ongoing.  Very impressive to see all this construction.  We ended up taking a hike called Sapphire Overlook Trail (https://www.alltrails.com/trail/us/colorado/sapphire-point-overlook-trail)  One of the most picturesque hikes I've ever took up in the mountains where you have a birds eye view of the lake below at an elevation of close to 10,000 feet!  

 

 

Edit: I forgot to mention, there are still snow capped peaks at about 14,000 feet elevation or so.  Nice to see snow on the mountains.  It definitely was a banner winter for CO last winter.

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it was another cool early August morning. The low here at my house was 53 the official low at GRR was 55. At this time with clear skies it is 58 here. The first 6 days of August have been more like the first part of September rather than August. This is the coolest start to August since 2013.

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Definitely exceeding my expectations, it's been a lightning-filled downpour here for the past 30 minutes. 68*F.

 

Looking to have a bit of a break then storm development right on top of me at about 21Z. That's where today's hail threat comes in.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Really coming down now, can't even see a block away.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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88 degrees feels like 98 with 70 dew. Gross. Make it stop. We’ve had enough this summer.

 

Meanwhile in Scottsbluff: 103 but with a dew point of 24 and a whopping 6% humidity. The panhandle is really a different world  :blink:

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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The "prime" period for severe weather was supposed to be now, but I'm about to lose my daytime heating. 78/70*F.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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I was hoping to get some rain Saturday morning, like the Euro has been teasing all week, but it appears unlikely.  There are a few more rain chances through mid next week, but nothing real promising.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Meanwhile in Scottsbluff: 103 but with a dew point of 24 and a whopping 6% humidity. The panhandle is really a different world :blink:

We have a new football coach at our school. He coached at Scottsbluff the last 4 years. He can’t believe our humidity here. I told him we have about 3 1/2 weeks until irrigation ends and the corn transpiration is done. Typically our dews drop dramatically by the first week of September.

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All week the Euro was showing a line of storms pushing southeast through the upper midwest overnight tonight into Saturday morning, but that forecast was crap.  Once again, many locations will be lucky to get anything over the weekend.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Rise N' Shine from Durango, CO!  It's a cool 53F and a very low DP (36F).  I don't have much time to post on here this morning but I just wanted to drop in and say hello.  Yesterday, we had amazing weather conditions all throughout our journey from Aron, to Aspen/Snowmass, through Independence Pass (I'll post some photos later) and finally into Durango.  All this driving and lack of good sleep is catching up!  Can't wait to sleep in my own bed back in AZ.  

 

Speaking of AZ, my goodness, it's going to take a bit to acclimate to the intense heat.  Nothing but HOT weather in the foreseeable future.

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Hurricane forecast goes up after the tropical flurry and "poof"....no hurricanes.

 

Going to see variable weather over the Ozarks to get us to last week of the month. Recovering or rebounding the extremely sharp cold start to August 2020 is going to be hard to do without a week of 95s. Not happening.

 

Beautiful August continues while Tom out there is hanging out in the high heat side of the summer.

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I'm going to be very close to normal every day for the next 10 days. Highs will range from the upper 70s to the mid-80s with very little day-to-day variation.

 

Can't wait till Fall. I'm bored.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Hurricane forecast goes up after the tropical flurry and "poof"....no hurricanes.

 

The Atlantic has moved into a less favorable phase for cyclone activity.  However, as several experts have been tweeting, models are suggesting that the MJO, et al, will be coming together to produce a favorable phase for the Atlantic from late August into September, perfectly timed for peak season.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Attm, its gorgeous outside w a temp of 79F and dew at 57F.

 

Working on a big project on my backyard property this weekend. I have workers putting a " A Villa Roman Spa Furniture" around my pool area  and also adding a huge "Spiral Slide" as well. Hopefully, will be done next week. :blink:

 

In the meantime, it gets more humid and warmer. I think we stay away from the 90s, but upper 80s to maybe 90F is a good call. Temps drop to the mid 80s or lower by midweek and later on.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

404 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

 

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-090900-

Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-

St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-

404 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

 

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast

Michigan.

 

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 

There is a chance of thunderstorms late tonight mainly across the

Saginaw Valley and Thumb. These storms are not expected to be

severe while tracking eastward around 20 mph.

 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

 

Chances of thunderstorms continue Sunday through Tuesday. The best

chance of storms is Monday into Monday night as a cold front moves

through the region. Storms are not projected to become severe late

this weekend, but will carry some potential on Monday should greater

instability materialize during the afternoon and evening hours.

 

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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My gosh. WeatherUnderground app showing a temp of 91 with a heat index of 104 and a 77 dew. Hello South Florida in Central Nebraska. I can’t begin to describe my hatred of this type of weather. Sweating standing still.

My weather station has 89 air temp, 78 dew for a heat index of 102. It was showing 106 earlier. Been smoking a pork butt on my new pit boss smoker since 830 and every time I step outside I break out in a sweat. Humid humid...

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The Atlantic has moved into a less favorable phase for cyclone activity. However, as several experts have been tweeting, models are suggesting that the MJO, et al, will be coming together to produce a favorable phase for the Atlantic from late August into September, perfectly timed for peak season.

Thank you for the added info on that. I was half wondering if the flurry of activity wasn't a harbinger. If this is the case, should be an interesting fall.

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My weather station has 89 air temp, 78 dew for a heat index of 102. It was showing 106 earlier. Been smoking a pork butt on my new pit boss smoker since 830 and every time I step outside I break out in a sweat. Humid humid...

Yep. Put some burgers and chicken on the Green Mountain Pellet Grill. Faces the sun. It was unpleasant. Still 87/97 with a 74 dew. Only 3 weeks till September.

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Good morning from the "Valley of the Sun" where it is a very warm 83F.  I must say, it feels nice to have slept on my own bed but the 2 hour time difference had me waking up around 3:00am!  Needless to say, I feel much better after driving over 1,900 miles the past 3 days.  While I do enjoy road trips, I think I'm going to take it easy for a while. 

 

When I was driving through our country this past month, I was struck by how much diversity it has and how much land there is. You really don't get the real picture sitting at home or watching it on TV.  I encourage everyone to take a road trip whenever possible to see our beautiful land of the USA.  We are truly blessed to have such an enormous amount of land and places to see.  I pretty much drove through all the different regions of our Sub Forum, except for our members up north which is my goal by the end of this year.  Now I have a sense of what it is like living in your regions during the Summer.  I intend on taking a road trip this Fall or Winter (TBD) up north.

 

At this time, it is 5:28am and daylight has emerged...sun rise is at 5:46am.

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Today will be the first day of above average mean temperatures after 10 days in a row of below average. The official overnight low at GRR was 69 and here at my house it was 70. At this time it is 75 here at my house with a DP of 68. The 8 am reading at GRR was 75 with a DP of 67.

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If you haven't heard, yesterday PHX tied the all-time record of 33 days of 110F+ temps and we will shatter that record this week with multiple days in the 110's.  Just an incredible stretch of HOT weather over here and the lack of the Monsoon is no bueno.

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Attm, its 76F w a noticeable dew. Skies are partly sunny. Severe storms possible tomorrow as a CF approaches.

 

Rest of the week looks mainly 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Wow, looks like quite a bit of damage in the Fremont area... I received a notification for the Severe Thunderstorm Warning on my phone for Douglas County for possible 75 MPH winds, however that storm collapsed as it moved east so I am wondering if the severe winds in Fremont were caused by a wet microburst?

 

Picked up .20 of rain from the showers and storms that moved through my backyard this morning. For another 20% chance of rain, I will take it... even though we need a lot more.

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Let's see if this actually means s**t this time. Friday was the biggest failure of a watch I've ever seen.
 

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 423
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1215 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
 
   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
 
   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Northwest Minnesota
     Eastern North Dakota
 
   * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until
     700 PM CDT.
 
   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     A tornado or two possible
 
   SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms have initially formed
   across northeast North Dakota, with additional storms expected to
   develop through the afternoon farther south into southeast North
   Dakota. This activity will spread east with embedded supercells and
   line segments into northwest Minnesota through early evening.
 
   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
   statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north of Thief
   River Falls MN to 70 miles south southwest of Fargo ND. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
 
   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 
   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.


From the convective outlook:

 

   The second corridor will be focused along a progressive cold front

   that should have increasing storm coverage by mid-afternoon across
   eastern ND as mid-level cooling further occurs in association with a
   Prairie Provinces shortwave trough. With a belt of fast 500-mb
   westerlies slowly shifting south through the day, the setup will be
   favorable for initial supercells that should grow into fast-moving
   linear segments by early evening. CAM guidance varies widely with
   the evolution of convection across MN this evening. The leading MCV
   will likely hinder destabilization across north-central and
   northeast MN suggesting that severe potential from the cold front
   convection will be confined to northwest MN. Other guidance suggests
   more of a southeastward-propagation towards larger buoyancy
   developing on the backside of the leading MCV as low-level moisture
   recovery occurs. This lower confidence scenario might result in a
   long-lived MCS persisting through much of tonight down the Upper MS
   Valley, as advertised by the 12Z NSSL-ARW and 00Z ECMWF. Given the
   uncertainty, no change is warranted to the broad cat 2/SLGT risk
   from the prior outlook.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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